Foreign impact of surviving Ming China?

Without Koxinga, Taiwan stays outside of the Chinese empire. What happens?
In the north, can Russia continue their expansion south into Manchuria? Or will there efforts be stimied as with the Kazakhs?
What happens to the Dzungars and other Mongols without the Manchu empire in Inner Asia?
 
Without Koxinga, Taiwan stays outside of the Chinese empire. What happens?
In the north, can Russia continue their expansion south into Manchuria? Or will there efforts be stimied as with the Kazakhs?
What happens to the Dzungars and other Mongols without the Manchu empire in Inner Asia?

Would Taiwan stay out of the Chinese sphere? After the Dutch seized some islands (forgot), the Chinese re-took them later.
 
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