Ford Wins in 1976. Who wins in 1980?

(1) Kennedy won the primaries or caucuses in MA, CT, NY, PA, VT, MI, DC, CA, NJ, NM, RI and SD. I wouldn't call that "hardly any" especially since those include some very populous states. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

(2) Kennedy was under severe disadvantages--not only the "character issue" (mostly Chappaquiddick) and the disastrous Roger Mudd interview but the fact that in the early part of the primary season Carter was enjoying a temporary resurgence of popularity due to the inclination to rally behind him in the first months of the hostage crisis.

So if anything Carter in 1980 shows the vulnerability that year of an unpopular president (or his designated successor) to a challenger more in tune with the mood of the party.

And Reagan is still going to be the face of the Right. The fact that conservatives reluctantly supported Ford over Carter doesn't mean they will view Ford as one of them ideologically--especially if he can't prevent the Iranian revolution, the Soviet takeover of Afghanistan, etc. Nor will they so regard Dole, who will have to defend Ford and lose support on the Right the way Humphrey's defense of LBJ cost him support on the Left.

Also, remember that Reagan's showing against Ford in 1976 was under economic conditions considerably better for the incumbent than those probably facing Ford in 1980.

The most likely course of events is that Reagan beats Dole, but loses decisively in the general election. After 1980 Reagan never pursues public office again, although he'd probably continue to campaign for Republican candidates and speak out on important issues.

As for Dole, he might be able to make a political comeback by being elected Governor (a return to the Senate is unlikely given Kansas's heavily Republican lean, which would give Dole few opportunities for a second Congressional career) and running for President again later.
 
If Clinton really were beatable in OTL, Dole wouldn’t have been the nominee that year.

I assume people who believe this are not aware that at the time of the invisible primary, I.E at the time when the nomination campaign was functionally taking form, Clinton was believed to be beatable by a fairly wide avenue of opinion, including within it a certain Bill Clinton.

I agree though, as I said in the other thread as a prelude to the strange co-ordination of views on the subject here, Dole would be beaten to the nomination in 1980 almost irrespective of how Ford's term transpires.
 
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kernals12

Banned
I don't think any candidate had a coalition so diametrically different from that of the previous candidate of the same party than Jimmy Carter. McGovern's performance in the Rural South and in Blue Collar urban areas was abysmal but he did relatively well in highly educated suburbs and heavily cosmopolitan cities. Carter did extremely well in the Rural South, fairly well in Blue collar urban areas, mediocrely in heavily cosmopolitan cities, and apocalyptically bad in highly educated suburbs. But amazingly, it was McGovern's coalition that was prescient of the future.
 
California would probably vote for Reagan only because of the Native Son effect. New Jersey is another matter however. IOTL in 1980, the state had a Democratic Governor, 2 Democratic Senators, and a Democratic controlled state legislature. Plus Carey would have a natural advantage in the Northeast.
New Jersey is more than just Morris County. It had lots of factory towns (think of Bruce Springsteen) and places like Hudson County which is a lot like New York City's 6th borough culturally.

I agree that New Jersey would vote democrat in this scenario. I'm from New Jersey and until Chris Christie, even the republican winners of state level elections or above were liberal leaning.
 
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