Ford Wins in 1976. Who wins in 1980?

kernals12

Banned
If Gerald Ford won in 1976, perhaps he refuses to pardon Nixon or the economies recovers faster, I take it for granted that a Democrat would win in 1980. Presumably world events would go the same regardless of who holds the white house, so Iranians will revolt and US embassy staff will be held hostage, the 2nd energy crisis would plunge the economy into recession, and the Soviets would invade Afghanistan. IOTL given all that we chose to replace a moderate Democrat, Jimmy Carter, with a conservative Republican, Ronald Reagan. So it seems the opposite would happen ITTL, we'd choose to replace a moderate Republican with a liberal Democrat. So who do you think it would be?
 
A 1980 election with a term limited Ford would, IMHO, be Ronald Reagan vs. Hugh Carey, with Carey winning, though by a slightly closer margin than Reagan’s OTL as the GOP has the electoral advantage
 

kernals12

Banned
A 1980 election with a term limited Ford would, IMHO, be Ronald Reagan vs. Hugh Carey, with Carey winning, though by a slightly closer margin than Reagan’s OTL as the GOP has the electoral advantage
Bill Clinton showed how the supposed "electoral college lock" was nothing more than good luck for the Republicans. If Carey were to win the popular vote by 10 points, the GOP's "advantage" would vanish with New Jersey, Illinois, and California probably voting Democratic.
 
Bill Clinton showed how the supposed "electoral college lock" was nothing more than good luck for the Republicans. If Carey were to win the popular vote by 10 points, the GOP's "advantage" would vanish with New Jersey, Illinois, and California probably voting Democratic.
The suburbs were still heavily Republican in those states though and the Democrats were still losing ground in the south. Illinois would be democratic likely in this scenario, but not sure about California (Reagan’s home state that he was twice elected governor in) and Jersey. Clinton was able to shift the Coasts and rust belt Democratic because the religious turn in the GOP. Ford winning in 76 likely prevents that from happening, even if Reagan is the nominee in this scenario.
 

kernals12

Banned
The suburbs were still heavily Republican in those states though and the Democrats were still losing ground in the south. Illinois would be democratic likely in this scenario, but not sure about California (Reagan’s home state that he was twice elected governor in) and Jersey. Clinton was able to shift the Coasts and rust belt Democratic because the religious turn in the GOP. Ford winning in 76 likely prevents that from happening, even if Reagan is the nominee in this scenario.
California would probably vote for Reagan only because of the Native Son effect. New Jersey is another matter however. IOTL in 1980, the state had a Democratic Governor, 2 Democratic Senators, and a Democratic controlled state legislature. Plus Carey would have a natural advantage in the Northeast.
New Jersey is more than just Morris County. It had lots of factory towns (think of Bruce Springsteen) and places like Hudson County which is a lot like New York City's 6th borough culturally.
 
There's always the final chapter of And Then Everything Changed, where the match up is Reagan vs. Hart after Ford narrowly wins in 1976.

Personally, I think Kennedy still runs in 1980, even though he wouldn't be challenging Carter. I've been slowing moving through The Quest for the Presidency 1984 and they have some interesting parts about how Kennedy was kind of ambivalent in 1976 about running, but then very much wanted to run in 1980, and by 1984, the wounds of his last run were still fresh and his family was absolutely against it. So, in this scenario, it seems likely that he would still run.
 
The suburbs were still heavily Republican in those states though and the Democrats were still losing ground in the south. Illinois would be democratic likely in this scenario, but not sure about California (Reagan’s home state that he was twice elected governor in) and Jersey. Clinton was able to shift the Coasts and rust belt Democratic because the religious turn in the GOP. Ford winning in 76 likely prevents that from happening, even if Reagan is the nominee in this scenario.

In 1960 JFK won New Jersey and almost won California despite it being Nixon's home state. In 1980, the GOP will be far more unpopular than it was in 1960. It's completely within reason that Carey would take NJ. As for California, Reagan would have the home state advantage but that doesn't guarantee him a victory there. If he does win it wouldn't be a landslide.
 

kernals12

Banned
In 1960 JFK won New Jersey and almost won California despite it being Nixon's home state. In 1980, the GOP will be far more unpopular than it was in 1960. It's completely within reason that Carey would take NJ. As for California, Reagan would have the home state advantage but that doesn't guarantee him a victory there. If he does win it wouldn't be a landslide.
There are plenty of times when candidates managed to win their home states even as they lost in landslides nationwide. Goldwater won Arizona, Carter won Georgia in 1980, Mondale won Minnesota, and Bush 41 won Texas in 1992.
 
The suburbs were still heavily Republican in those states though and the Democrats were still losing ground in the south. Illinois would be democratic likely in this scenario, but not sure about California (Reagan’s home state that he was twice elected governor in) and Jersey. Clinton was able to shift the Coasts and rust belt Democratic because the religious turn in the GOP. Ford winning in 76 likely prevents that from happening, even if Reagan is the nominee in this scenario.

New Jersey came close to being won by Carter in 1976 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Jersey even though his Southern Baptist piety was not particularly in line with the state culturally. (Note how this also hurt Carter in New York, where despite the FORD TO CITY: DROP DEAD headline, Carter only won narrowly.) If Ford is an unpopular president, he will tarnish the Republican brand sufficiently that Reagan cannot save it in New Jersey or nationwide, whether the Democrats nominate Carey, Edward Kennedy, or for that matter Walter Mondale. Even in California one should remember, Reagan's 52.69% in 1980 was only two percentage points above his national showing... (California in 1976 was rather cool to both national candidates; it would have preferred Reagan vs. Brown…)
 
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kernals12

Banned
New Jersey came close to being won by Carter in 1976 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Jersey even though his Southern Baptist piety was not particularly in line with the state culturally. (Note how this also hurt Carter in New York, where despite the FORD TO CITY: DROP DEAD headline, Carter only won narrowly.) If Ford is an unpopular president, he will tarnish the Republican brand sufficiently that Reagan cannot save it in New Jersey or nationwide., whether the Democrats nominate Carey, Edward Kennedy, or for that matter Walter Mondale. Even in California one should remember, Reagan's 52.69% in 1980 was only two percentage points above his national showing... (California in 1976 was rather cool to both national candidates; it would have preferred Reagan vs. Brown…)
Carter did dominate in New York City (except for Staten Island, which doesn't really count). Although, New York City has always been Democratic and you can see the impact of the dying down of the culture war currents that had dominated the 1972 election. Relative to the national margin where Carter did better by 23 percentage points than McGovern, Carter improved over McGovern in the Bronx (32 percentage points), Brooklyn (35 percentage points), Queens (34 percentage points), and Staten Island (40 percentage points), but in relative terms, he lost ground in heavily cosmopolitan Manhattan (only improving by 15 percentage points).
 
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Carter did dominate in New York City (except for Staten Island, which doesn't really count).

True but he did quite poorly in the suburbs and especially Upstate (which contrary to its popular image as Protestant farmland, is largely urban and Catholic). Carter even came close to losing Albany and Erie (Buffalo) counties. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York Likewise, Carter did poorly in Connecticut. In short, he was not the ideal Democrat for the Northeast, a fact which si somewhat disguised by his strong showing in New York City due to the aid issue.

And remember that Carter might have had an even worse time in New York state in 1976 if Eugene McCarthy had been on the ballot there...
 
In 1960 JFK won New Jersey and almost won California despite it being Nixon's home state. In 1980, the GOP will be far more unpopular than it was in 1960. It's completely within reason that Carey would take NJ. As for California, Reagan would have the home state advantage but that doesn't guarantee him a victory there. If he does win it wouldn't be a landslide.

Reagan isn't losing California outside of a 1964-style Democrat tsunami. In 1980 he won it by nearly a 17% margin over Carter!

That said I'm not convinced alternate-1980 will be entirely the walkover for the Democrats some people seem to expect. In OTL Carter was suffering from being personally linked with the perceived failures of his presidency. That just won't be true of Reagan who would be running as something of a departure from Ford. I'd give him a very real chance of winning, maybe by a much closer margin than in OTL but winning all the same.
 

kernals12

Banned
Reagan isn't losing California outside of a 1964-style Democrat tsunami. In 1980 he won it by nearly a 17% margin over Carter!

That said I'm not convinced alternate-1980 will be entirely the walkover for the Democrats some people seem to expect. In OTL Carter was suffering from being personally linked with the perceived failures of his presidency. That just won't be true of Reagan who would be running as something of a departure from Ford. I'd give him a very real chance of winning, maybe by a much closer margin than in OTL but winning all the same.
By 1980, the Republicans will have been in control of the White House for 12 years, the economy is tanking, inflation is spiralling out of control, and Americans are being held hostage in Iran. For a similar election situation, look at OTL 2008.
 
Well for one, it's extremely unlikely that Reagan would beat Dole in the primaries. Dole has the backing of the president, and the religious right. He may surge in the early primaries, but he's already been beat once before and eventually Dole would gain a lead in delegates. Ford winning in 1976 would also solidify him as the leader of the Republican right and for the most part force Reagan out of politics. OTL, Reagan was able to use Ford's loss to support his own candidacy. The only way I see Reagan besting Dole in the primary is if Ford totally and utterly ignores and works against the right wing of the party, which I don't see happening with a seasoned politician like Ford.
 
By 1980, the Republicans will have been in control of the White House for 12 years, the economy is tanking, inflation is spiralling out of control, and Americans are being held hostage in Iran. For a similar election situation, look at OTL 2008.

I agree here. McCain's charisma proved powerful enough to bring him ahead of Obama in the polls at one point, but fundamentals so heavily favored Obama that McCain lost decisively. Reagan's charisma isn't going to save him in 1980. He won't lose as badly as Carter did, but he is still going to lose.
 
Well for one, it's extremely unlikely that Reagan would beat Dole in the primaries. Dole has the backing of the president, and the religious right. He may surge in the early primaries, but he's already been beat once before and eventually Dole would gain a lead in delegates. Ford winning in 1976 would also solidify him as the leader of the Republican right and for the most part force Reagan out of politics. OTL, Reagan was able to use Ford's loss to support his own candidacy. The only way I see Reagan besting Dole in the primary is if Ford totally and utterly ignores and works against the right wing of the party, which I don't see happening with a seasoned politician like Ford.

Look, Reagan in 1976 almost beat the incumbent president in the primaries--something almost unheard of at the time. I think he could beat Dole in 1980, who would merely have the support of Ford, something which will not be an unmixed blessing if Ford is really unpopular. (You might say, "But he won't be unpopular among Republicans." But that's by no means clear. If he fails to prevent the Iranian revolution and rise in oil prices--with or without a hostage crisis--or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, there is going to be considerable resentment of him from the Right. In 1980, the partisan imperative to stand by your president was not nearly as strong as it is today, among either Democrats or Republicans.)

And I don't see why you assume the religious eight would support Dole against Reagan, though surely they would support either one in November.
 
Look, Reagan in 1976 almost beat the incumbent president in the primaries--something almost unheard of at the time. I think he could beat Dole in 1980, who would merely have the support of Ford, something which will not be an unmixed blessing if Ford is really unpopular. (You might say, "But he won't be unpopular among Republicans." But that's by no means clear. If he fails to prevent the Iranian revolution and rise in oil prices--with or without a hostage crisis--or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, there is going to be considerable resentment of him from the Right. In 1980, the partisan imperative to stand by your president was not nearly as strong as it is today, among either Democrats or Republicans.)

And I don't see why you assume the religious eight would support Dole against Reagan, though surely they would support either one in November.
Um its not really unheard of. Kefauver did the same in 1952, and then in 1956 entered the primaries again. Like I said, he surged ahead in the early primaries but eventually the candidate supported by the president made up the difference. Also my point is that after losing the primary, Reagan was only able to remain the face of the right because Ford lost the election. With Ford winning, he becomes the face of the right, and if he becomes unpopular, then Dole become the face of the right. He could successfully separate himself from the failures of the Ford administration while acting as an attack dog (similar to Agnew), remaining popular with both the administration supporters and the Right who in your mind would resent Ford.

Hell, IOTL, a Kennedy ran against the extremely unpopular Carter and barely won any primaries, and I don't believe that Reagan's charisma alone can account for his 1976 upset. It was the right place and the right time, and 1980 could just as easily be the wrong place and the wrong time just like it was for Ted.
 

kernals12

Banned
Birch Bayh seems like a good candidate as an old school liberal. In fact, before the Iowa caucus in 1976, it seemed like it would be a 2 way race between him and Carter, but Bayh was perceived as too left wing on abortion.
 
Um its not really unheard of. Kefauver did the same in 1952, and then in 1956 entered the primaries again. Like I said, he surged ahead in the early primaries but eventually the candidate supported by the president made up the difference. Also my point is that after losing the primary, Reagan was only able to remain the face of the right because Ford lost the election. With Ford winning, he becomes the face of the right, and if he becomes unpopular, then Dole become the face of the right. He could successfully separate himself from the failures of the Ford administration while acting as an attack dog (similar to Agnew), remaining popular with both the administration supporters and the Right who in your mind would resent Ford.

Hell, IOTL, a Kennedy ran against the extremely unpopular Carter and barely won any primaries, and I don't believe that Reagan's charisma alone can account for his 1976 upset. It was the right place and the right time, and 1980 could just as easily be the wrong place and the wrong time just like it was for Ted.

(1) Kennedy won the primaries or caucuses in MA, CT, NY, PA, VT, MI, DC, CA, NJ, NM, RI and SD. I wouldn't call that "hardly any" especially since those include some very populous states. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

(2) Kennedy was under severe disadvantages--not only the "character issue" (mostly Chappaquiddick) and the disastrous Roger Mudd interview but the fact that in the early part of the primary season Carter was enjoying a temporary resurgence of popularity due to the inclination to rally behind him in the first months of the hostage crisis.

So if anything Carter in 1980 shows the vulnerability that year of an unpopular president (or his designated successor) to a challenger more in tune with the mood of the party.

And Reagan is still going to be the face of the Right. The fact that conservatives reluctantly supported Ford over Carter doesn't mean they will view Ford as one of them ideologically--especially if he can't prevent the Iranian revolution, the Soviet takeover of Afghanistan, etc. Nor will they so regard Dole, who will have to defend Ford and lose support on the Right the way Humphrey's defense of LBJ cost him support on the Left.

Also, remember that Reagan's showing against Ford in 1976 was under economic conditions considerably better for the incumbent than those probably facing Ford in 1980.
 
The GOP will nominate Reagan unless he chooses not to run. Dole proved in 1980, 1988, and 1996 to be a weak candidate and thus beatable. If Clinton really were beatable in OTL, Dole wouldn’t have been the nominee that year.
 
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