So in preparation for a timeline I’m thinking of starting work on soon, I’m wondering if I could have some input on some of the candidates for the 1980 election would be and their potential cabinets. In my notes, I have the front runners as being Mo Udall, Frank Church, Ted Kennedy(if he chooses to Join), John Glenn, and Scoop Jackson.
Ford wins in ‘76. Candidates in ‘80
- Thread starter Andrewtsal
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Ricardolindo
Banned
Ted Kennedy wouldn't have run. In our timeline, he only ran because Carter didn't pass healthcare reform. And, of course, he would know that Chappaquiddick would wreck his chances.
The other candidates that you mentioned are plausible, though.
In addition to those, there's Hugh Carey, Governor of New York.
Walter Mondale is also a plausible candidate.
I think he's only mentioning the Democrats because they would almost certainly win in this timeline's 1980 election.
Possible Democrats:
On the Democratic side, it's gonna be pretty crowded. Teddy Kennedy doesn't run for the reasons @Ricardolindo said. Of all the candidates I mentioned, Hugh Carey, IMHO and I've said this before in other threads on this subject, would likely emerge as the nominee if he runs, with someone like Bentsen, Askew, or possibly Dale Bumpers of Arkansas as his running mate. The Democratic ticket goes on to beat the Republican ticket with a victory along these lines:
Governor Hugh Carey (D-NY) / Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX): 406 EV, 54.5% PV
Fmr. Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / Senator Howard Baker (R-TN): 132 EV, 45.5% PV
- Governor Hugh Carey (D-NY)
- Governor Jerry Brown (D-CA)
- Governor Reubin Askew (D-FL)
- Senator Walter Mondale (D-MN)
- Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN)
- Senator Scoop Jackson (D-WA)
- Senator Frank Church (D-ID)
- Rep. Mo Udall (D-AZ)
- Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX)
- Fmr. Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)
- (would be) Vice President Bob Dole (R-KS)
- Rep. John Anderson (R-IL)
On the Democratic side, it's gonna be pretty crowded. Teddy Kennedy doesn't run for the reasons @Ricardolindo said. Of all the candidates I mentioned, Hugh Carey, IMHO and I've said this before in other threads on this subject, would likely emerge as the nominee if he runs, with someone like Bentsen, Askew, or possibly Dale Bumpers of Arkansas as his running mate. The Democratic ticket goes on to beat the Republican ticket with a victory along these lines:
Governor Hugh Carey (D-NY) / Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX): 406 EV, 54.5% PV
Fmr. Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / Senator Howard Baker (R-TN): 132 EV, 45.5% PV
Ricardolindo
Banned
Possible Democrats:
Possible Republicans:
- Governor Hugh Carey (D-NY)
- Governor Jerry Brown (D-CA)
- Governor Reubin Askew (D-FL)
- Senator Walter Mondale (D-MN)
- Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN)
- Senator Scoop Jackson (D-WA)
- Senator Frank Church (D-ID)
- Rep. Mo Udall (D-AZ)
- Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX)
I think the Republican field is going to be even smaller than OTL as 1980 TTL is not gonna be good for the GOP, so many that sat out OTL and some that did run (Howard Baker) wait until 1984. Some might mention George HW Bush, but I doubt he'd run as he'd have a cabinet position in a second Ford Term (and there's a good chance it'd be Sec. of State as Kissinger was gonna sit out a second term) so I doubt one cabinet member would challenge another. The race on that side is Dole vs. Reagan and IMHO Reagan emerges as the nominee. He damn near beat Ford in 76, he'd take out Dole rather easily.
- Fmr. Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)
- (would be) Vice President Bob Dole (R-KS)
- Rep. John Anderson (R-IL)
On the Democratic side, it's gonna be pretty crowded. Teddy Kennedy doesn't run for the reasons @Ricardolindo said. Of all the candidates I mentioned, Hugh Carey, IMHO and I've said this before in other threads on this subject, would likely emerge as the nominee if he runs, with someone like Bentsen, Askew, or possibly Dale Bumpers of Arkansas as his running mate. The Democratic ticket goes on to beat the Republican ticket with a victory along these lines:
Governor Hugh Carey (D-NY) / Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX): 406 EV, 54.5% PV
Fmr. Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / Senator Howard Baker (R-TN): 132 EV, 45.5% PV
In https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...crat-wins-in-1980.467902/page-2#post-19207096, Jackson Lennock mentioned the posssibility of a Hugh Carey-Scoop Jackson ticket.
What do you think of that?
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I am not so certain that he wouldn't run. In OTL, his decision may have been made relatively late (Adam Clymer thinks the "malaise" speech was the breaking point) but that was after all a decision to run against a president of his own party--historically a rare (and rarely successful) choice. He might have less hesitation about running in an open race. Yes, in 1974 he had decided not to run in 1976, but after all by 1979 five more years had passed and he might have thought that Chappaquiddick would be less of an issue. In OTL he certainly seems to have underrated how much the issue could still hurt him in 1980...
I think it's not just that he didn't run in 1976, it's the fact that he didn't run in any other race subsequent to 1980 either. Certainly he was still considered as a serious potential contender had he wanted to pursue a nomination as 'late' as the eighties - he was young enough to do. Given the range of personal and political factors that weighed against running for him in 1976, I'm not even convinced he would have doggedly pursued the presidency even without Chappaquiddick. It can't be entirely ruled out he would have ran in an 'open' 1980, but I'm highly doubtful he would have done so.
I think you’d need a southerner to balance the ticket. Carey Jackson could win but Carey with a southerner is a more winnable ticket IMHO.
Unless Ford is caught in a dead girl, live boy situation, I have serious doubts about a candidate from New York doing anything like that well in the South, btw. The only time in this period when the Democrats did better in the South than nationally was when Carter was heading the ticket - at all other times in the late cold war period, when they were headed by northerners, they did worse than the national average, sometimes markedly so.
Ricardolindo
Banned
The Democrats may not like the idea of a Southerner in a ticket after Carter's defeat. One of Carter's weaknesses was that, as a Southern Evangelical, he was distrusted by Northern liberals.
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Camelot's End by Jon Ward
It looked like a cakewalk, one where the party wanted him to come in and replace Carter. A failed Ford Presidency means a very competitive Dem primary in 1980—similar to 1976 where Kennedy polled fourth—which would be a long tough fight that I don’t believe Kennedy would enter into.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677...ings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx
This Gallup graph shows (?) upper 20s as low ebb.
And accompanying table has 28% as Carter’s low—in June 1979! (before his “Crisis of Confidence” speech on July 15th, and especially firing half his cabinet two days later)
Perhaps why the Associated Press/NBC News poll was so shocking?
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Who would be the targeted constituencies and ideological factions for the candidates? Scoop Jackson and Lloyd Bensten would obviously be the conservative faction, with Reubin Askew I imagine getting pegged as Carter 2.0; Mondale and Church, meanwhile, are your institutional liberals, whereas Mo Udall, I imagine, will be going for an "outsider" liberal feel. So where do Carey, Brown, and Bayh fit into all this? And who emerges as the big names as the factions consolidate?
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GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
Perhaps so.
Or . . . Elizabeth Drew was wrong, or her editor, or a problem with this poll. Part of what makes history so much fun!
Or . . . Elizabeth Drew was wrong, or her editor, or a problem with this poll. Part of what makes history so much fun!
Ta da!
. Via the Crimson archives at Harvard:
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We also have to take a look at exactly what Ford did in his second term. How did he deal with inflation? With Iran? Afghanistan? OPEC and gas shortages? His approach to these issues will determine not just who is most likely to run, but which candidates are likely to gain traction in both parties.
Carey and Bayh - mainstream institutional liberals
Brown and Udall compete on who is the bigger, or better, outsider
No, I don’t think so.
The only reason anybody tied to someone who lost to Gerald Ford is if they are a break out amazing campaigner. Jimmy Carter could not be that. He is, in fact, a famously bad campaigner who made awful, damaging moves like his Playboy interview and firing half of his cabinet. He would prove decent at best, and could maybe come in 4th or 5th place in a crowded primary.