Ford is Shot, Survives

On September 5, 1975, Lynette Fromme attempted to assassinate President Gerald Ford. She failed to do so; but what if she had actually shot Ford, but only wounded him? What effect would this have had on the remainder of Ford's presidency? Would an emergency surgery and a hospital stay (like Reagan) have resulted in any kind of a sympathy vote in the 1976 primaries? In the presidential election?
 
Corder and Duran didn't save Clinton from the Republican Revolution of 1994 despite being weeks before the midterms, and that's the closest precedent. There would be a spike of sympathy for Ford, but the fundamentals do not change. The conservative wing led by Reagan is still going to have their ideological grievances on both the domestic (abandoning the 1940s-1960s bipartisan centrist consensus) and foreign fronts, Ford will still have the Nixon and stagflation albatrosses around his neck.
 
Reagan beats Carter, but he'll face the same problems he and Thatcher faced in 1981-3: waiting for the economy to bottom out and their economic programme to take effect. Reagan probably wins in 1980 on his personal popularity/charisma and weakness of the Democratic field, since he will perform infinitely better on national security than Carter.
 
Reagan beats Carter, but he'll face the same problems he and Thatcher faced in 1981-3: waiting for the economy to bottom out and their economic programme to take effect. Reagan probably wins in 1980 on his personal popularity/charisma and weakness of the Democratic field, since he will perform infinitely better on national security than Carter.

I think all historians agree a 1977-85 Reagan Administration would be better than OTL. No dotage. No Iran/Contra. Though how Iran would go...:(
 
I frankly don't think Reagan could win 1980 if he faced everything Carter did. He could have charisma galore, but if he's facing an energy crisis, stagflation, and a hostage crisis, his popularity will plummet. 1976-1980 is bad for anyone involved without earlier POD's.

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Ford did see a spike in popularity every time there was an attempt on his life, but I'm not sure the effect of an actual injury. I'm sure his popularity would rise, but it may not have any more an effect on the 1976 election than anything else, albeit 1976 was a close election.
 
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