On Election Night 1976, President Gerald Ford pulls off the biggest upset since Truman beat Dewey in 1948.
I'll bite because I like the idea of Ford, though I think it might take a concrete POD to force greater support for Ford. This would probably dictate the repsonse, but I'll go ahead and presume that the POD is simply something like turnout (never count out the effect of weather on an election's turnout and result, for example). Though the easiest explanation is that Ford handles the pardon of Nixon differently, making it seem much more positive (allowing the nation to heal and get on with things rather than a Watergate-fest) than a betrayal/dirty deal. Perhaps Ford delays until the Democrats/someone tries to bring criminal charges against Nixon; he then intervenes.
1. Would President Ford give the Panama Canal back to Panama?
Since he will probably still have support of the Republican realists, like Kissinger, I would say, no. Not a chance in hell. However, there's an argument to be made that augurs the other way: appearing less imperialist might benefit the US. The Canal as becoming something of a chokepoint to international shipping because an emerging class of supertanker and container ship couldn't fit in some of the old locks. Is the US willing to risk enmity if it also needs a substanital investment to update the Canal?
2. How would Ford handle the Iran hostage crisis?
Presuming of course that the Iranian Revolution of 1979 still happens, I think Ford is more assertive than Carter. However, he may not be able to be assertive enough to solve matters: a full force military to end matters would look like a new Vietnam and might end in a Somalia like defeat. It's quite a risk.
3. Would Ronald Reagan win the Republican nomination if he ran again in 1980?
Probably. Ford took office in August 1974, which means he couldn't have run in 1980 under the 22nd Amendment (the cut-off for less than two years being January 1975). There aren't many other Republicans who can present a new vision for the Party. Reagan's coalition will still have substanital potency, since Ford will still have suffered the ire of "stagflation." This will probably constitute something of a coup, since it will shift the direction of the Republicans away from the Rockefellerian politics of Ford. There's no guarantee, however, that Reagan wins in 1980, since a number of factors (the economy, the unpopularity of detente, somekind of Iranian debacle) might create an ire against the Republican Party.
4. In OTL, Ford supported the Equal Rights Amendment. Will it be added to the US Constitution?
Well, given how close it came probably, though I think this will only increase a growing rift within the Republican Party between Rockefellerians and those that formed Regean's coalition OTL. Perhaps they come to power with their own amendment, perhaps a Balanced-Budget Amendment (or Line Item Veto)?
5. Since Jimmy Carter would not be tainted by being an incumbent President, would he run again in 1980?
Well, he'll have the taint of a failed Presidential candidacy. Few people have run again after a narrow loss in the modern era. Carter's prominency during the '76 campaign would have lessened his claim to be an outsider. Also, the Democrats may want a more hawkish Presidential candidate, given the issues likely to be present in 1980.
Odds are long on the whole affair, so I think we really need an expanded WI to clarify potential courses for the AH.