Ford defeats Carter in 1976

On Election Night 1976, President Gerald Ford pulls off the biggest upset since Truman beat Dewey in 1948.

1. Would President Ford give the Panama Canal back to Panama?
2. How would Ford handle the Iran hostage crisis?
3. Would Ronald Reagan win the Republican nomination if he ran again in 1980?
4. In OTL, Ford supported the Equal Rights Amendment. Will it be added to the US Constitution?
5. Since Jimmy Carter would not be tainted by being an incumbent President, would he run again in 1980?

Discuss.
 
On Election Night 1976, President Gerald Ford pulls off the biggest upset since Truman beat Dewey in 1948.

I'll bite because I like the idea of Ford, though I think it might take a concrete POD to force greater support for Ford. This would probably dictate the repsonse, but I'll go ahead and presume that the POD is simply something like turnout (never count out the effect of weather on an election's turnout and result, for example). Though the easiest explanation is that Ford handles the pardon of Nixon differently, making it seem much more positive (allowing the nation to heal and get on with things rather than a Watergate-fest) than a betrayal/dirty deal. Perhaps Ford delays until the Democrats/someone tries to bring criminal charges against Nixon; he then intervenes.

1. Would President Ford give the Panama Canal back to Panama?

Since he will probably still have support of the Republican realists, like Kissinger, I would say, no. Not a chance in hell. However, there's an argument to be made that augurs the other way: appearing less imperialist might benefit the US. The Canal as becoming something of a chokepoint to international shipping because an emerging class of supertanker and container ship couldn't fit in some of the old locks. Is the US willing to risk enmity if it also needs a substanital investment to update the Canal?

2. How would Ford handle the Iran hostage crisis?

Presuming of course that the Iranian Revolution of 1979 still happens, I think Ford is more assertive than Carter. However, he may not be able to be assertive enough to solve matters: a full force military to end matters would look like a new Vietnam and might end in a Somalia like defeat. It's quite a risk.

3. Would Ronald Reagan win the Republican nomination if he ran again in 1980?

Probably. Ford took office in August 1974, which means he couldn't have run in 1980 under the 22nd Amendment (the cut-off for less than two years being January 1975). There aren't many other Republicans who can present a new vision for the Party. Reagan's coalition will still have substanital potency, since Ford will still have suffered the ire of "stagflation." This will probably constitute something of a coup, since it will shift the direction of the Republicans away from the Rockefellerian politics of Ford. There's no guarantee, however, that Reagan wins in 1980, since a number of factors (the economy, the unpopularity of detente, somekind of Iranian debacle) might create an ire against the Republican Party.

4. In OTL, Ford supported the Equal Rights Amendment. Will it be added to the US Constitution?

Well, given how close it came probably, though I think this will only increase a growing rift within the Republican Party between Rockefellerians and those that formed Regean's coalition OTL. Perhaps they come to power with their own amendment, perhaps a Balanced-Budget Amendment (or Line Item Veto)?

5. Since Jimmy Carter would not be tainted by being an incumbent President, would he run again in 1980?

Well, he'll have the taint of a failed Presidential candidacy. Few people have run again after a narrow loss in the modern era. Carter's prominency during the '76 campaign would have lessened his claim to be an outsider. Also, the Democrats may want a more hawkish Presidential candidate, given the issues likely to be present in 1980.

Odds are long on the whole affair, so I think we really need an expanded WI to clarify potential courses for the AH.
 
On Election Night 1976, President Gerald Ford pulls off the biggest upset since Truman beat Dewey in 1948.

Biggest upset? Ford was very close, and could easily have won the election. If you mean biggest upset given where they started back in September, sure, but the actual election was very tight.

3. Would Ronald Reagan win the Republican nomination if he ran again in 1980?/QUOTE]

Probably, unless Dole does much better than IOTL since he's VP.

5. Since Jimmy Carter would not be tainted by being an incumbent President, would he run again in 1980?

Maybe but the Democratic Party is much tougher on their losers than the Republicans.

If Kennedy decided to run in the ATL Kennedy would win the nomination.
 
I concur w/Nicomacheus' observations.

1. I think not, but in Thomas DeFrank's book "Write It When I'm Gone" Ford speaks about negotiations to try and get a Panama Canal treaty during his presidency (1975).
2. More assertive rhetoric and a greater effort to generate international pressure for their release than Carter in OTL.
3. Reagan would probably be the nominee in 1980 as per OTL.
4. No. The POTUS has little influence over whether or not states ratify constitutional amendments.
5. No. Carter goes the way of Dukakus in OTL...into oblivion.
 
Actually, if Ford goes along with the Panama deal, then the GOP could have a serious split in 1980, especially if the Democrats run a superb candidate.
 
I concur w/Nicomacheus' observations.
4. No. The POTUS has little influence over whether or not states ratify constitutional amendments.

As regards the President's powers, this is correct: he has no role in the ratification of amendments. However, Presidents have historically taken positions on whether they support amendments or not. Even if he doesn't campaign for it, Ford's support will split Republicans who shyed away from the ERA and those who thought it unnecessary (because provisions of the 14th Amendment were sufficient). I was thinking given how close the ERA was IOTL, if Ford's influence can nudge things a bit, the ERA might pass. This will have substantial impact, not only in shaping the Constitution, but in determining the course and methods of Kulturkampf social politics
 
Actually, if Ford goes along with the Panama deal, then the GOP could have a serious split in 1980, especially if the Democrats run a superb candidate.

Oh, I think the GOP will have such a split anyway: Ford will represent a fading wing of the Party, northern politicians who usually passed New Deal style government programs (Nixon passed the EPA, price controls, and eliminated the Gold Standard), i.e. Rockefeller Republicans. The contest will be somewhat muted, since Ford will not be able to contest in 1980, but the Republican primary contest could be fight between this "old guard" and the newer Reagan coalition of social and small government economic conservative.
 
3. Reagan would probably be the nominee in 1980 as per OTL.

Why? Assuming Ford pursues a more cautious/successful foreign policy than Carter did, is there really going to be the surge of support needed for Reagan to claim the nomination? Would he even challenge Dole?
 
Why? Assuming Ford pursues a more cautious foreign policy than Carter did, is there really going to be the surge of support needed for Reagan to claim the nomination? Would he even challenge Dole?

OTL Reagan's candidancy was the defining moment for the Republican Party as a conservative movement. Dole as Ford's VP will be running with the support of Ford's base, which was the old Republican constituency. Dole's roots may enable him to contest Reagan's claims, but Reagan will be arguing for a more aggressive foreign policy and small government-social conservatism. Hence, if we're right about a split in the GOP, Reagan will contest the GOP nomination.
 
but Reagan will be arguing for a more aggressive foreign policy and small government-social conservatism.

Is there anything that would stop Dole from doing slightly the same sort of thing, albeit with a difference of emphasis to Reagan? Isn't Dole in the best position to build a bridge between old-style Republicans and Conservatives?

I'm still unsure whether Reagan would actually contest. With a sitting Vice-President going for the nomination, and a foreign policy which potentially may not seem to smack to Conservatives of 'retreat' as Carter's did, I think it's pretty debtable. 1976 might be recorded as the high point of Reagan's influence in the party.
 
Ironically this would lead to a more leftwing USA I think.

Let's say that the Republicans go conservative with Reagan leading, and probably losing due to the failing economy being seen as the republican fault. Or maybe a more centrist Dole, doesn't affect the outcome.

The thing is, the democratic president would get a lot of thanks for the rising economy, and likely win 1984.

This could lead the Republicans to think that to appeal to voters they must go for the centre, letting the Democrats be the one's to go further left.

If the Democrats manage to hold on long enough to see the Soviet fall down, (if that occurs the same way TTL), then they get extra credit for that.
 
Is there anything that would stop Dole from doing slightly the same sort of thing, albeit with a difference of emphasis to Reagan? Isn't Dole in the best position to build a bridge between old-style Republicans and Conservatives?

I'm still unsure whether Reagan would actually contest. With a sitting Vice-President going for the nomination, and a foreign policy which potentially may not seem to smack to Conservatives of 'retreat' as Carter's did, I think it's pretty debtable. 1976 might be recorded as the high point of Reagan's influence in the party.

Dole might be able to assemble Reagan's coalition, but not if he's running for the nomination against Reagan. There's little reason to think Reagan wouldn't contest a VP, since he was happy to do so against a sitting President in OTL 1976. Dole would be hamstrung by some kind of economic woe and 12 years of Republican rule. Reagan will seem the agent of change and has a better chance of beating the Democrats in the general election. It's hard to say he wins the nomination, since it wasn't a cakewalk OTL, but my money's still on him.

Also's Ford's foreign policy may well be a continuation of detente policies. Reagan campaigned against detente and for a more assertive, aggressive stance toward Soviet power. Though it's not a "retreat" like Carter's was, there's still room for a "Reagan Revolution" to change the nature of Republican policies.

Reagan may still win in 1980, since his appeal is rather broad (note the OTL Regan democrats). The Democrats TTL may diffuse this by mounting their own candidate with an aggressive, anti-detente foreign policy, but I don't see a democrat who might be able to do so. I don't doubt there might be one, I just can think of one. If so, then American politics will be very different, since this will probably maintain the two parties as relatively non-ideological: the Democrats will have hawks in power from 1980-88, rather than running on platforms to dampen Reagan's policies.

Hence, the Democrats maintain their ability to appeal to conservative voters. I doubt this leads to a left-leaning America, but rather to continuing debates within both Parties since both will maintain conservative and liberal wings. Perhaps this leads to a breakdown of the current two party system, but more likely it leads to the continuation of "big-tent" politics. A boon for the USA, IMHO.
 
Seems to me that it wouldn't be a huge upset in that a swing of ~20,000 votes in three states (I believe OH, WI, and one other) would have turned the election to Ford. That said...

On Election Night 1976, President Gerald Ford pulls off the biggest upset since Truman beat Dewey in 1948.

1. Would President Ford give the Panama Canal back to Panama?

I have my doubts on that one; I'm inclined to agree with those posting above that he might have agreed to something of a phased-in joint control, while possibly exploring routes for a larger second canal (yeah, I know Nicaragua at the time wasn't a model of stability, but in the world of diplomacy, nearly anything is possible) to handle supertankers.


2. How would Ford handle the Iran hostage crisis?

That presumes there was one in the first place. Seems to me that the whole ugly affair came about as an indirect function of Carter's partial disassembly of the existing intelligence apparatus-something I don't think Ford would have done. Assuming that to be the case, I don't think the US would have been caught flat-footed when the revolution came and as such, would have been ready if and when militants had tried to storm the embassy (and even that might not have happened with a stronger military presence in the immediate area: the militants might well have thought twice.)

3. Would Ronald Reagan win the Republican nomination if he ran again in 1980?

I have to agree that likely he would-but with the qualification that the Reagan wing of the GOP would have reached some sort of accommodation with the Ford/Rockefeller wing: perhaps that would have been something along the lines of Richard Schweiker as Reagan's running mate (as he was, in theory, in '76 in OTL), along with support of/non-oppostion something like the ERA. In that case, the GOP would have had a united front behind a nominal successor and minimal opportunity for internal dissension.

4. In OTL, Ford supported the Equal Rights Amendment. Will it be added to the US Constitution?

See item 3, above.


5. Since Jimmy Carter would not be tainted by being an incumbent President, would he run again in 1980?

I think he'd try: don't forget that the Democrats ran Adlai Stevenson twice in succession (and he got close to a third try in 1960), and William Jennings Bryan ran three times also (although not three in succession). It could come down to a rather interesting floor fight between Carter, Kennedy, and a handful of lesser candidates resulting in the first multiple-ballot convention in a generation. Could be the result would be a compromise candidate (John Glenn?).
 
So if the Republican Nominee, does turn out to be Reagan...Might Teddy pick a more hawkish candidate as his Running Mate in order to balance off his rather liberal status...Perhaps he gives it to Scoop Jackson?
 
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