Ford chooses Baker instead of Dole.

Let's say Ford chooses Howard Baker to be his running mate instead of Dole.

Does this have any impact on his chances? What other butterflies might have to occur to see the Ford/Baker ticket win?
 
Baker had/has a reputation as a moderate which doesn't appeal to the Reaganites and defeats the purpose of dropping Rocky from the ticket. I see a lot of Reagan voters staying home and maybe a small amount of independents switching to Ford.
 
Reaganites stay home. Ford chose Dole, who at the time a reputation as very conservative, to appeal to Reagan's supporters and as Nckdictator said, it defeats the purpose of dropping Rocky.
 
Conservatives didn't really dislike Baker until after he helped Carter get the Panama Canal Treaty through the Senate. In 1976 they would have had no real objection to him. Indeed, in 1968, Strom Thurmond listed six men as "acceptable" running mates for Nixon: Reagan, Tower, Bush, Baker, Griffin, and Morton. https://books.google.com/books?id=mj70AgAAQBAJ&pg=PA116 I therefore can't agree that chosing Baker defeats the purpose of dropping Rocky, who was absolutely *hated* by conservatives.

I don't think Baker would have helped much, though. He wouldn't even have delivered Tennessee to Ford--Carter carried it by a whopping thirteen points, way more than a *vice* presidential candidate's home-state advantage can overcome. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...s-actually-do-win-votes-in-their-home-states/ True, unlike Dole he wouldn't have talked about "Democrat wars" but IMO that changed very few votes.
 
Rockefeller was considered a liberal. Baker was a moderate. (BTW, Ford didn't dump Rocky, Rocky left on his own in November 1975 to keep the party united, Ford just accepted it. Reagan didn't announce his run until after Rocky withdrew. It's not appropriate to compare Rocky vs Baker, as it would not have been such a comparison at the convention). So I don't think he would turn off the Reaganites as Rocky would. Furthermore, if Reagan wanted to be well positioned to be the GOP nominee in 1980 (and he was getting older so he couldn't afford to wait past that), he'd have to back the ticket strongly. He had already risked splitting the party too much. Reagan himself had promised to make liberal Richard Schweiker as his VP in a failed attempt to woo moderates to become the nominee.

Since it was assumed Baker was going to be the VP pick right before Ford asked Dole, I don't think it's that much of a stretch if he went along with it. It might not galvanize Reagan's conservative base as much as Dole did, but it would have more appeal to the center.

Baker's big plus is that he would not have made a "Democratic wars" gaffe that cost Dole a lot. But Ford needed someone to really fight as he planned on taking a more statesmanlike approach - would Baker have done it? Baker would also help Ford on the Nixon pardon issue as it was he who asked "What did the President know and when did he know it?" to John Dean. It would promote Ford's image as an honest man.

The real question is would Baker be able to push Ford ahead? Let's look at the closest states that Ford lost in 1976.

Ford lost by 240 to 297 Electoral Votes (EV). He needs 270 to win. He needs to switch 30 to win.

Ohio (25 EV) was closest - only 0.27% difference or 11,116 votes.
Wisconsin (11 EV) is next. 1.68% or 35,248.

Other possibilities to switch are:

Mississippi (7 EV). 1.68% or 14,463.
Hawaii (4 EV). 2.53% or 7,372.

Other than perhaps Mississippi, the potential conservative votes lost probably don't equal the moderate votes won. And it's possible Baker from TN might appeal to southerners in MS.

If we look at Ford's closest victories to see if they might switch to Carter, we're also not seeing states where conservatives likely hold the balance.

Oregon (6) 0.17% or 1713 votes.
Maine (4) 0.84% or 4041 votes.
Iowa (8) 1.01 % or 12,932.

Ford has a lot more close wins than Carter and seems vulnerable, but they are very conservative states. Appealing to moderates probably boosts his totals there.

I think there is strong, but not conclusive, evidence a Baker pick would have won Ford the election. But it is reasonable to disagree. However, as a timeline I'd say it is plausible at the very least.
 
I therefore can't agree that chosing Baker defeats the purpose of dropping Rocky, who was absolutely *hated* by conservatives.

I don't think Baker would have helped much, though. He wouldn't even have delivered Tennessee to Ford--Carter carried it by a whopping thirteen points, way more than a *vice* presidential candidate's home-state advantage can overcome.

I agree with your points. Only caveat is that Baker doesn't need to deliver TN. He just needs to help Ford win Ohio and one other state to get to 270. If Baker can get a 26,000 vote swing in those two states (Carter goes down that much, and Ford goes up that much), Ford wins the electoral college even if he loses that popular vote. This is completely doable.

To be honest, if Ford had simply not made a blunder with his comment that "there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe" he probably would have won regardless of who his VP was.
 
To be honest, if Ford had simply not made a blunder with his comment that "there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe" he probably would have won regardless of who his VP was.

I was just about to say this, and it's pretty sad that this was all it came down to given how damaged the GOP was at the time. It just goes to show how weak of a nominee Carter was. 1976 should've been a repeat of LBJ vs. Goldwater, instead we got Bush Vs. Kerry (parties reversed) 28 years early.
 
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