It’s been awhile since we’ve had one of these discussions. Who do you guys think would be the Democratic and Republican nominees in 1980 in a Ford wins with Connally as his VP scenario? Often, Ted K comes up, but I don’t think he runs here as he did vs Carter. Could we see Mondale run? I assume he’d be the frontrunner, if he does so, though it could also be Udall or Jackson. For the GOP, you could see them nominating Bob Dole or HW Bush, though Connally could make a bigtime play. I don’t think Reagan is likely to be the nominee, as his brand of fusionism may be discredited here. I would expect Dole or Bush to beat Mondale or Udall, and probably Reagan and Connally as well, though Jackson probably beats any of them besides maybe Connally. What do you guys think?
Ford beats Carter in 76, Election of 1980?
- Thread starter KaiserWilhelm
- Start date
Correct, he’ll have served more than 2 years before inauguration in 1977
Would be an interesting Republican primary. I don't think Connally is an automatic, the notion the serving VP gets to be the presumptive nominee had not really taken hold yet. I imagine Bush and Dole will both go hard after the nomination. Would Bush have had a role in Ford's administration if he won in 76?
Where does Connally come from? Nelson Rockefeller was the actual VP and Dole was on the ticket in 1976.
But anyway...Reagan runs for sure for the nomination and he might actually win. He's still the popular two-term governor of California. He's definitely a top tier candidate and possibly the frontrunner.
On the Democratic side...Teddy runs. Udall runs (he ran in 76, can't see why he wouldn't in 80). Is 1980 too early for Gary Hart? He's a one-term Senator by that point so probably. Gotta believe some sorta Southerner runs but I'm drawing a blank on who.
As far as the general, gotta believe whoever wins in 1976 is the underdog for 1980 simply because the economy is still probably a mess.
Connally was one of Ford’s top options to be VP IOTL, and he was nearly Nixon’s pick for VP to replace Agnew.
Maybe Dale Bumpers runs in 80, though that may be a bit early for him.
I tend to think that, had Ford won, Bush would’ve been a top pick to replace Kissinger at State.
Republicans:
Reagan would be the frontrunner, Vice President Bob Dole could well run, as would Connally. Reagan would most probably win the nomination.
Democratic:
Ted Kennedy would probably run, as would scoop Jackson, Udall. Possibly Gary Hart, after all Obama and Kennedy were first term Senators when they ran.
Reagan would be the frontrunner, Vice President Bob Dole could well run, as would Connally. Reagan would most probably win the nomination.
Democratic:
Ted Kennedy would probably run, as would scoop Jackson, Udall. Possibly Gary Hart, after all Obama and Kennedy were first term Senators when they ran.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
Since John Connally was a former Democrat (changed around ‘71), I don’t think he could win a Republican primary just running cold as it were.
But as Ford’s selection for VP, first off, might be viewed as bold and inspired choice. And then, after serving as VP for four years, I think he could then run as a serious candidate in 1980.
PS Are you referring to Reagan as fusion candidate because of both religious right and economic conservatives?
My guesses:
Democrats,: Ted Kennedy, Walter Mondale, Scoop Jackson and Mo Udall will run for certain. Frank Church might want to try again after 1976, but he is a longshot candidate. Hugh Carey might run. So will probably John Glenn. Nominee will be either Jackson, Udall or Carey imo.
Republicans: Reagan will run, no doubt. So will Bob Dole and VP Connally. Bush might run as a moderate trying to continue Ford administration. Connally will also run if he doesn't get the VP slot, because he might get a Cabinet position. I can also see Howard Baker as a candidate, who would also run to continue Fords legacy. Reagan is the frontrunner here, followed by VP Connally and Baker/Bush.
Democrats,: Ted Kennedy, Walter Mondale, Scoop Jackson and Mo Udall will run for certain. Frank Church might want to try again after 1976, but he is a longshot candidate. Hugh Carey might run. So will probably John Glenn. Nominee will be either Jackson, Udall or Carey imo.
Republicans: Reagan will run, no doubt. So will Bob Dole and VP Connally. Bush might run as a moderate trying to continue Ford administration. Connally will also run if he doesn't get the VP slot, because he might get a Cabinet position. I can also see Howard Baker as a candidate, who would also run to continue Fords legacy. Reagan is the frontrunner here, followed by VP Connally and Baker/Bush.
If Dole gets the nom he'd probably lose due to association with the MALAISE of the late 1970s. The GOP should understand this and not run Dole.
On the other hand, if the MALAISE is as bad as OTL they might not run Reagan either, might be too risky. Bush has a good chance IMO.
Related thought: could Carter run again if 1976 was close?
On the other hand, if the MALAISE is as bad as OTL they might not run Reagan either, might be too risky. Bush has a good chance IMO.
Related thought: could Carter run again if 1976 was close?
Could yes, would is another question. 1976 was an election where the republicans were predicted to lose. In the end, Carters playboy interview and the slow recovery of the economy helped Ford close the gap. If Carter looses an election, the dems were certain they could win, nobody would be willing to give him a second shot imo. Even his former allies would first and foremost try to back other candidates.