Force Z Survives

[Cryhavoc101]

So this POD is that No. 453 Squadron RAAF with its 16 Buffaloes possibly assisted by No. 488 Squadron RNZAF manages to provide a rotating CAP over Force Z as it attempted to retire to Singapore on Dec 10 1941.

The presence of Fighter planes - impacts the ability of the IJN Bombers to successfully attack the Ships (by not having the freedom to maneuver in an uncontested airspace as OTL and through losses incurred) and by early afternoon the fleet has managed to survive the onslaught undamaged or lightly damaged.

So what happens next?

Does the fleet retire out of range of another days attacks?

How does this impact Japanese operations - i.e. do they send their transports back to FIC and send warships south looking for Force Z?

Does POW and Revenge surviving then provide extra back bone to the ABDA forces?

 

[jsb]

Does the fleet retire out of range of another days attacks?

I think they are already retiring when sunk so would have carried on back, its just what they do then after knowing that trying nothing means the probable loss of Malaya?

https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/UN/UK/RN/BS-14_POW+Repulse/index.html

 

[1Big Rich]

So this POD is that No. 453 Squadron RAAF with its 16 Buffaloes possibly assisted by No. 488 Squadron RNZAF manages to provide a rotating CAP over Force Z as it attempted to retire to Singapore on Dec 10 1941.

The presence of Fighter planes - impacts the ability of the IJN Bombers to successfully attack the Ships (by not having the freedom to maneuver in an uncontested airspace as OTL and through losses incurred) and by early afternoon the fleet has managed to survive the onslaught undamaged or lightly damaged.

Interesting idea.

So what happens next?

Does the fleet retire out of range of another days attacks?

As I said back in the Improve the Singapore Strategy thread, Phillips told the Admiralty he intended to attack the enemy forces off Kota Bharu and eight hours later, he sailed, 1005 on the 8th London time. The Admiralty did not reply to his message, and at 2200 on the 9th London time, when Force Z had been at sea for some 36 hours, there was a staff conference on naval dispositions in the Pacific. Churchill, Alexander (First Lord of the Admiralty) and Pound were in attendance. Churchill favored withdrawal, but at the late hour, it was decided to settle things in the morning. If his capital ships survive, withdrawal to Trincomalee is likely

How does this impact Japanese operations - i.e. do they send their transports back to FIC and send warships south looking for Force Z?

Kondo had Kongo, Haruna, Takao, Maya, Atago and the DDs Arashi, Hagikaze, Akatsuki, Nowaki, Maikaze, Michishio and Hibiki
Kurita had Mogami, Mikuma, Suzuya, Kumano, Sendai and four destroyers
Ozawa had Chokai, Yura and 8 DDs

There were plenty of IJN forces in the area, and they had sighted Phillip's ships historically (night, via floatplane that dropped a flare). I don't think the transports would be sent back, since they weren't historically. IIRC, Kondo was overall tactical command, and wanted to consolidate forces before engaging Phillips.

Does POW and Revenge surviving then provide extra back bone to the ABDA forces?

I don't think so. I think they would be the base of an Indian Ocean based Eastern Fleet. Warspite might go to Crace instead of to the Indian if Prince of Wales and Repulse are available. It might make for an interesting Indian Ocean Raid if the carriers are with fast capital ships instead of the slower Warspite.

jsb,

Great map, thanks for sharing that!

My initial thoughts,

 

[Cryhavoc101]

I think they are already retiring when sunk so would have carried on back, its just what they do then after knowing that trying nothing means the probable loss of Malaya?

https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/UN/UK/RN/BS-14_POW+Repulse/index.html

Yes - its what happens immediately after they return

Do they hang around or does London decide that their deterrence value has not paid off and withdraws them possibly to Ceylon?

And what does their survival do to Japanese plans - do they retire all of their transports knowing that the Allies might form a much more powerful SAG based on the 2 capital ships and other allies ships - with which the IJN have 2 modernised BBs (Kongo and Hurura) Half a dozen Crusiers and a dozen DDs to oppose them.

There is a number of Allied ships that were days away from joining up or could not sortie with force Z and there was a number of vessels that would eventually form the Naval elements of ABDA

Could this impact operations (regarding transports etc) for the Philippines campaign?

 

[Killer in]

If Force Z survives then as said the Japanese will need to devote more forces permanently to the region to counter them. It likely won't stop the fall of Malaya but it makes the Indian Ocean much more interesting. Or do the ships go to Pearl Harbour as some people think Churchill wanted. Imagine PoW and Repulse with as many 50 Cal's and maybe some Chicago Pianos as the USN could provide supporting Yorktown and Lexington at Coral Sea.

 

[1Big Rich]

If Force Z survives then as said the Japanese will need to devote more forces permanently to the region to counter them. It likely won't stop the fall of Malaya but it makes the Indian Ocean much more interesting. Or do the ships go to Pearl Harbour as some people think Churchill wanted. Imagine PoW and Repulse with as many 50 Cal's and maybe some Chicago Pianos as the USN could provide supporting Yorktown and Lexington at Coral Sea.

Killer,

You might find this post and some of the subsequent discussion of interest.

Also, for am RN at Pearl Harbor scenario might find this discussion interesting.

Regards,

 

[Spencersj345.346]

If nothing else the second the RN has the time to do so Repulse is getting her 4 single purpose 4" triple gun mounts swapped out for 4 twin dual purpose 4" gun mounts and a way heavier light and medium AA suite

 

[jsb]

If Force Z survives

Would they interfere in Battle of the Java Sea or Sunda Strait?

All of the above where only IJN CAs (and Ryūjō) so a single RN capital ship would require IJN heavier warships (ie CVs or BB/BCs) at a minimum to match them, what operation do they get taken from?

And just how many IJN bombers didn't survive the fight over force Z what effect does that have?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Would they interfere in Battle of the Java Sea or Sunda Strait?

All of the above where only IJN CAs (and Ryūjō) so a single RN capital ship would require IJN heavier warships (ie CVs or BB/BCs) at a minimum to match them, what operation do they get taken from?

And just how many IJN bombers didn't survive the fight over force Z what effect does that have?

The CVLs airgroup consisted of 18 Nakajima B5N torpedo bombers and 16 A5M4 fighters!

I suspect that with Force Z still intact that the IJN may need to send Car Div 5 (Shōkaku and Zuikaku) as well as some heavier SAG units

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

I suspect that with Force Z still intact that the IJN may need to send Car Div 5 (Shōkaku and Zuikaku) as well as some heavier SAG units

I don't see them weakening the Pearl Harbour attack force, but they could transfer Zeros to the CVL's to replace the Claude's and add the old Hosho to boost the numbers a bit.

 

[Riain]

I think once the battle is joined, and the Dutch and USN team up with the OTL RN cruisers and destroyers Force Z would not be held back out of the way, the RN used capital ships in WW2. However I think the campaign might be fought differently; both in order to utilise the 2 capital ships and the IJN reaction to their presence.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Would they interfere in Battle of the Java Sea or Sunda Strait?

At both battles the killing blows were all from torpedos. If the Java Sea battle is fought as OTL either ship may take some torpedo hits. But, of course their presence alters events. One change might be the British skill at night battle, and their experience with radar. Theres a lot of other details that alter things both ways.

And just how many IJN bombers didn't survive the fight over force Z what effect does that have?

Most of them. Losses were well under 20%.

To digress: In January the air units involved were reorganized & a 18+ plane group of the bombers were sent to newly captured Rabaul. These guys had been very well trained and after getting credit for sinking the two Brit warships regarded themselves as as a elite unit and ready to kick Yankee ass. In February the USS Lexington made a try at raiding Rabaul. Japanese reconissance planes spotted them & got off reports before being shot down. Three of the large flying boats types were lost in a day of sneek & peek. Admiral Brown prudently aborted the raid and turned back east, but 17 of the bombers caught up with the Lexingtons TF. The CAP was being rotated and only eight F4F were able to launch & intercept the two attacking groups. In less than a half hour thirteen of the attackers were in the water with crews lost, one made it to a island and part of the crew survived ditching there. Three remaining planes made it back to Rabaul with partial crew losses of dead and maimed. All three planes required extensive repair or were beyond repair. Counting a 18th plance sortied by aborted with a malfunctioning engine the mission cost the Japanese effectively 95% in aircraft losses & over 80% in crew losses. Zero damage was inflicted on the Lexington. Lt 'Butch' OHare, son of a Chicago gangster, was credited with four of the bombers in 2-3 minutes, & received partial credit for another. So, there was some degree of vengance for the sinking of the Repulse & PoW. this also suggests how the RAF might have fared against the bombers over Force Z. The Lexingtons air crew were not yet veterans of air to air combat & included a fair portion of pilots not long out of flight schools in the US.

 

[HMS St.Lawrence]

The slaughter of Bougainville proved that unescorted Betties and Nells were easy targets. If Force Z is provided with an air cover, it will survive. And if the japanese really wants to take it out, they will have to wait until they have secured some airfields in Malaya to base figthers from there or engage in surface action. The second option is more likely in the short term IMO, but the Prince of Wales and Repulse are not going down without a fight. A naval battle between the two British capital ships and the two Kongos is a risk, the outcome would probably be decided by the light forces which the IJN had in much greater number.

 

[Zheng He]

At both battles the killing blows were all from torpedos. If the Java Sea battle is fought as OTL either ship may take some torpedo hits. But, of course their presence alters events. One change might be the British skill at night battle, and their experience with radar. Theres a lot of other details that alter things both ways.



Most of them. Losses were well under 20%.

To digress: In January the air units involved were reorganized & a 18+ plane group of the bombers were sent to newly captured Rabaul. These guys had been very well trained and after getting credit for sinking the two Brit warships regarded themselves as as a elite unit and ready to kick Yankee ass. In February the USS Lexington made a try at raiding Rabaul. Japanese reconissance planes spotted them & got off reports before being shot down. Three of the large flying boats types were lost in a day of sneek & peek. Admiral Brown prudently aborted the raid and turned back east, but 17 of the bombers caught up with the Lexingtons TF. The CAP was being rotated and only eight F4F were able to launch & intercept the two attacking groups. In less than a half hour thirteen of the attackers were in the water with crews lost, one made it to a island and part of the crew survived ditching there. Three remaining planes made it back to Rabaul with partial crew losses of dead and maimed. All three planes required extensive repair or were beyond repair. Counting a 18th plance sortied by aborted with a malfunctioning engine the mission cost the Japanese effectively 95% in aircraft losses & over 80% in crew losses. Zero damage was inflicted on the Lexington. Lt 'Butch' OHare, son of a Chicago gangster, was credited with four of the bombers in 2-3 minutes, & received partial credit for another. So, there was some degree of vengance for the sinking of the Repulse & PoW. this also suggests how the RAF might have fared against the bombers over Force Z. The Lexingtons air crew were not yet veterans of air to air combat & included a fair portion of pilots not long out of flight schools in the US.

The question is coordinating land based fighters flying cover over a task force. Are their RAF liaison officers on the ships, are the RAF radios on the American built planes compatible with the RN ships? What is the plan for the CAP? Is the goal to maintain four planes over the task force at all times or more? It gets tricky, the planes have to fly out from their land based, orbit over the ships for a period of time, and then have enough fuel to get back. If you plan on maintaining a CAP over the task force during all of daylight (about 12 hours) and you want a four ship over the task force at all times, you probably need at least 24 fighters since I doubt you can get more than two hours of time on station above the task force. Just a few quick thoughts.

 

[Killer in]

Wasn't it the case the RN didn't think they were in airstrike range when Force Z deployed without air cover ?

 

[jsb]

A naval battle between the two British capital ships and the two Kongos is a risk, the outcome would probably be decided by the light forces which the IJN had in much greater number.

Not sure in daylight I would like the chance of a fully worked up PoW with Repulse agaisnt a couple of Kongos even if they have been rebuilt heavily they are not modern BBs.

Just how much more light ships does IJN have RN/USN/RAN/Dutch all lost plenty in the area?

 

[MeerkatSolidarity]

I could be wrong here, but I think that there's a bit of a difference between F4Fs and the Brewster Buffaloes that Squadron No. 453 were flying. The Buffaloes had a laundry list of problems, including overheating, failure-prone firing solenoids, and severely impaired maneuverability. They were undergunned and overweight. I read somewhere that the US Navy's "testing" solely consisted of getting the plane up to its maximum speed, then putting it in the steepest dive the pilot could manage. If the plane could pull out of the dive without ripping its wings off, then they'd buy it. Brewster knew this, so they overbuilt some parts and skimped on others. The Buffaloes they sold to the RAF were second-rate even by Brewster standards; they had a less-powerful engine than the Navy model, and some didn't even get that, ending up with secondhand rebuilt engines.
There WAS a plan for a CAP, put forth by Flight Lieutenant Tim Vigors of Squadron No. 453; he wanted to keep 6 planes in the air over Force Z during daylight, but Admiral Phillips declined. Those 6 planes probably wouldn't have had much effect, given that the attack was carried out by FIFTY (50)-some Japanese aircraft, with a second wave waiting in the wings.

 

[Zheng He]

There is actually an easy POD for saving Force Z - OTL 10 G3Ms of the Genzan Ku led the way, they missed Force Z, attacked HMS Tenedos, and continued south and then turned back north after sighting Sumatra. On the return flight, a G3M piloted Ensign Masato Hoashi spotted Force Z and he remained over the task force so the inbound G4Ms and G3Ms could home in on his signal. If he misses the task force (a very reasonable POD) or is shot down by the two or four ship of fighters over the task force at the time, Force Z's location is never reported back and the attack never happens. Easy...

 

[Zheng He]

I could be wrong here, but I think that there's a bit of a difference between F4Fs and the Brewster Buffaloes that Squadron No. 453 were flying. The Buffaloes had a laundry list of problems, including overheating, failure-prone firing solenoids, and severely impaired maneuverability. They were undergunned and overweight. I read somewhere that the US Navy's "testing" solely consisted of getting the plane up to its maximum speed, then putting it in the steepest dive the pilot could manage. If the plane could pull out of the dive without ripping its wings off, then they'd buy it. Brewster knew this, so they overbuilt some parts and skimped on others. The Buffaloes they sold to the RAF were second-rate even by Brewster standards; they had a less-powerful engine than the Navy model, and some didn't even get that, ending up with secondhand rebuilt engines.
There WAS a plan for a CAP, put forth by Flight Lieutenant Tim Vigors of Squadron No. 453; he wanted to keep 6 planes in the air over Force Z during daylight, but Admiral Phillips declined. Those 6 planes probably wouldn't have had much effect, given that the attack was carried out by FIFTY (50)-some Japanese aircraft, with a second wave waiting in the wings.

If the CAP shoots down Ensign Hoashi's plane before he can broadcast, that is all you need.

 

[jsb]

Those 6 planes probably wouldn't have had much effect, given that the attack was carried out by FIFTY (50)-some Japanese aircraft, with a second wave waiting in the wings.

They where very spread out and at very significant range so not sure that any opposition would not help immeasurable....

The IJN Bomber groups attacked in waves of 8 to 26 IIRC as they could not hang around and form up having spread out to find the fleet and attacked in 5 waves between 1000 and 1241 (the first wave attacking the detached Destroyer HMS Electra in error)