Force Z re-visited.

I have been focusing on the wrong part of the Force Z debacle and have missed a little AH gem of info. The night before Force Z was sunk by air attack an IJN floatplane accidently dropped a flare over the CA Chokai, part of a force of 6 cruisers plus destoyers. Force Z saw this flare, because it was only 9km away from the IJN force at the time, but didn't get anything on PoWs radar. However both forces turned away from each other at this time and the rest is history.

But WI Force Z had capitalised on this IJN mistake and found and attacked this IJN force?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
It could have had serious impact. While I still think it likely that Repulse and Prince of Wales would have been sunk within a few days, they could have inflicted substantial damage on the Malaya invasion force. Considering how near-run a thing the Malaya Campaign was IOTL, every transport that is blown to its under the guns of the British battleships creates butterflies that could have resulted in the British holding Singapore. And that changes everything.
 
Why should the POW and Repulse get sunk anyway? If there was a night action and Somerville withdrew afterwards he could have retained a fleet in being.
 
Just how good was the radar on the PoW? The Japanese were very good at nightfighting and often beat the crap out of American surface action groups even against American radar. 6 cruisers and bunch of destroyers means a lot of torpedos and night battle means close range. Even a modern battleship can only take a few before going under or be crippled enough that it can't get back to base before daybreak and air attacks.
 
The transports were empty, sailing back to Can Ranh Bay after landings in Thailand and northern Malaya, escorted by most of Ozawa's warships so they're not much of a prize. However the 6 cruisers form a significant portion of the IJN cruiser force and their loss would have serious consequences in the following months.

The RN trained hard for night fighting between the wars and by Dec '41 had a lot of war experience, so I doubt the IJN would wipe the floor with Force Z.

Since Force Z was in range of the air forces IOTL after turning away from this enagament it most certainly would be in air range after fighting such a battle. However it would almost certainly have inflicted serious losses on the IJN forces and could call for air cover to assist it's withdrawal without the OTL excessive concern for secrecy.
 
Phillips did turn away, to the South East, from the scene of this close encounter and was still sunk by air attack. If he'd somehow engaged these cruisers, hopefully getting in the first shots and thus first hits, the time taken to fight the battle would give him no chance to escape the air attack, his position would be well known and he would sustain damage - possibly from Long Lance torps. He'd be an even better target for the bombers. However with his cover blown he may request fighter cover and get it from a sqn or two while he withdraws, although this won't bother the numerous IJN subs which have sighted and even attacked the force.

The more the I think about it the more sure I become that my original thoughts of what Phillips should have done, made in ignorance I admit, were correct. The Sth China Sea was infested with Japanese strength under, on and above the sea. If he didn't get it from the planes then some surface ships or submarine would probably have bagged him. He should have got the hell out of there, rendevoused with other RN/RAN/ADBA units and then entered the fray a bit later with much greater strength.
 
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