For Want of a Window: Nixon assasinated in '72

April 14, 1972: Milwaukee, Wisconsin native Arthur Bremer arrived in Ottawa, Ontario on April 10 and spent five days in Canada's national capital in an effort to shoot and kill President Nixon, who was visiting the country during this time. On April 14, Nixon made a public appearance in a limousine at Parliament Hill, which Bremer attended, carrying a loaded revolver in his pocket. The presence of Vietnam War protesters and Canadian nationalists, however, led to increased security surrounding the President, and Bremer had great difficulty getting within firing range of Nixon. He did manage finally to get close enough, but the President was traveling by in his limousine with the windows closed, and Bremer was unsure whether any bullets would go through the glass of Nixon's limo. As a result, he didn't open fire and the President sped past unharmed. The following month Bremer shot U.S. Democratic Presidential candidate George Wallace, lodging a bullet in his spine and leaving him paralyzed for life.

So what if, Tricky Dick had his windows down to greet the public while in his Limo, and Bremer got into close enough range to shoot and kill the President? How might Spiro Agnew act as the 38th President? Does he decide to run for reelection to extend his term? How long does it take for him to resign or get impeached? Who might Agnew appoint to the vacant VP slot(Connaly,Ford,Dole, Brooke or even Regean)? How does the race turn out on the Democratic side? How is Wallace's candidacy effected without his assasination attempt? Who wins the General election in 72 and what are some other long term effects?
 
Whew...President Spiro Agnew? Let me get this up front: I grew up in Maryland when Agnew was up and coming--indeed, I lived in the same county where he was county executive--and I would have to say that Agnew would have been the most venal president ever: Harding was no genius, but he knew damn well he was in over his head, and his friends screwed him; he himself was not directly involved in Teapot Dome or other similar scandals.

But I digress. Likely Agnew would have kept Haldeman and Ehrlichman on for continuity but neither had any loyalty to Agnew. Now, I believe that this April '72 event was pre-Watergate, so what follows is based on that premise: I suspect Haldeman/Ehrlichman would have bet that the sympathy vote would have been enough to carry the day, even with a highly polarizing candidate like Agnew; thus, the concept of the Watergate break-in would have been squelched. I could also see the Republicans choosing a softer/more human VP nominee like Nelson Rockefeller: he could also add considerable executive experience to the ticket as a contrast to relative lightweight Agnew.

The fun starts in '73 (I think) with the allegations surfacing in Maryland about Agnew's corruption while governor. The first to bail would be Haldeman and Ehrlichman, with the bulk of the old Nixon loyalists following fast. Now, what happened in Maryland is old news and was not an impeachable offense, but it sure hampered Agnew's ability to govern. By early 1974, the government is all but at a standstill, and the pressure on Agnew to resign is immense. He finally steps down in March '74, making Nelson Rockefeller president.

With a Rockefeller presidency, there is less of a swing to the right by the GOP, and something of a restoration of the old northeastern version of the party (the same guys who gave us Dewey, Ike, Willkie, and Theodore Roosevelt). The GOP makes some inroads in the black community as well. The result: both parties are more broadly-based than they are today in OTL.

In '76, the Democrats might have a tougher time going for Carter, who got the nomination on the basis of being a Washington outsider. Rockefeller would not have had nearly the mess to clean up that Ford did in OTL; indeed, Rockefeller could have washed his hands of Agnew, pointing out that all of his troubles preceded his time in Washington. I'm guessing maybe a Ted Kennedy/Jimmy Carter ticket running against Rockefeller and now-100% Texan George Bush. If so, I expect a reasonably easy (not a landslide, but still....) Rockefeller win.

But the trend for presidents to not finish terms continues with Rockefeller's death in the White House in 1979. Come 1980, George Bush is running for a term in his own right, with New York congressman / former NFL star Jack Kemp as his running mate. Opposition is provided by Ted Kennedy (again) and Minnesota senator Walter Mondale...
 
I could also see the Republicans choosing a softer/more human VP nominee like Nelson Rockefeller: he could also add considerable executive experience to the ticket as a contrast to relative lightweight Agnew.

You forget that Agnew was screwed by Rockefeller. He was a big supporter, he gathered all his friends around the TV to watch Rockefeller's big announcement speech, and then Rockefeller said he wasn't running for President.

Agnew would never pick Rockefeller.

With no Watergate Agnew has a wider brief for VPs, and would probably lean conservative. Ford would be considered, as would a few Senators and maybe Governors (Reagan wouldn't want it, I imagine), and if Agnew was dumb enough to choose someone as liberal as Rockefeller he might well get forced off the ticket as happened IOTL with Ford and Rockefeller.

With a Rockefeller presidency, there is less of a swing to the right by the GOP, and something of a restoration of the old northeastern version of the party (the same guys who gave us Dewey, Ike, Willkie, and Theodore Roosevelt). The GOP makes some inroads in the black community as well. The result: both parties are more broadly-based than they are today in OTL.

Far too late for that. (Incidentally Dewey and Willkie were establishment liberals, Ike was pretty non-ideological, and Roosevelt was a progressive. Superficially similar, really quite different.)

Yeah 1972 is too late. The South is in the GOP pocket, Nixon has broken the Democratic Party, and despite swinging conservative they will nevertheless remain competitive in all non-Southern states for the next twenty odd years IOTL.

As for the Party, it was always more conservative than its leaders (the progressives and liberals could force a more moderate Presidential nominee but 1968 was their last real attempt), Goldwater and even Nixon have satisfied them (i.e. there's no going back to someone like Rockefeller), and although they may put up with Agnew I could actually see Reagan mounting a challenge.
 
But I digress. Likely Agnew would have kept Haldeman and Ehrlichman on for continuity but neither had any loyalty to Agnew. Now, I believe that this April '72 event was pre-Watergate, so what follows is based on that premise: I suspect Haldeman/Ehrlichman would have bet that the sympathy vote would have been enough to carry the day, even with a highly polarizing candidate like Agnew; thus, the concept of the Watergate break-in would have been squelched. I could also see the Republicans choosing a softer/more human VP nominee like Nelson Rockefeller: he could also add considerable executive experience to the ticket as a contrast to relative lightweight Agnew.

The fun starts in '73 (I think) with the allegations surfacing in Maryland about Agnew's corruption while governor. The first to bail would be Haldeman and Ehrlichman, with the bulk of the old Nixon loyalists following fast. Now, what happened in Maryland is old news and was not an impeachable offense, but it sure hampered Agnew's ability to govern. By early 1974, the government is all but at a standstill, and the pressure on Agnew to resign is immense. He finally steps down in March '74, making Nelson Rockefeller president.
QUOTE]

Interesting...I definatley like the idea of Watergate being butterflied away by Nixon's death. But I also agree with Electric with the idea that Agnew probably woundn't pick Rockefeller...He probably will try to continue Nixon southern strategy to get the silent majority. I think Gen. Whestmoreland would actually be a good choice for Agnew...It helps boost his foreign policy, stick it out in Vietnam stance and he's from South Carolina.

But I think what's more interesting about the Nixon Assasination is the ripples it would have on the democratic side. These are all the primaries and caucuses that would take place after his death...

April 25: Massachusetts, Pennsylvania [Humphrey wins latter]
May 2: DC (Democrats), Indiana, Ohio
May 4: Tennessee
May 6: North Carolina
May 9: Nebraska, West Virginia
May 16: Maryland, Michigan [Wallace takes both]
May 23: Oregon, Rhode Island
June 6: California, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota [McGovern over Humphrey in California]

Assuming that Bremer is caught and arrested/killed after the shooting; this automatically butterflies the OTL assasination attempt on Wallace. He undoubtdly will run stronger and probably take West Virginia from Mcgovern.

Also, Shirley Chisholm might do alil better in the primaries with a Nixon Death instead of a Wallace Assasination attempt...She migh campaign harder in Massachusetts, and be able to take DC, Marlyand and possibly California if she gets enough of the black vote rallied behind her...

So you might see a much more brokerd convention in TTL's 1972 with Jackson, Wallace, and Chisholm alot closer to Mcgovern mighty total. Pressure from the party elders might force Mcgovern to pick a different VP than Eagleton...Possibly Scoop Jackson may take the spot. So a Mcgovern/Jackson ticket would face a Agnew/Whestmoreland ticket in the general

I believe, with the sympathy vote might give it to Agnew but it's a hell of alot closer than OTL 1972 General Election results. But would Whestmoreland after stepping into to become the 39th POTUS, Would he be more Ford-like in his policies or even do we still get out of Vietnam by the time the election rolls around? I say the Democrats would still have a better chance of winning in their hands, but it may be alot different in the primaries esp. if Chisholm and Wallace decide to run again but with more national prominence than in OTL?
 

bard32

Banned
So what if, Tricky Dick had his windows down to greet the public while in his Limo, and Bremer got into close enough range to shoot and kill the President? How might Spiro Agnew act as the 38th President? Does he decide to run for reelection to extend his term? How long does it take for him to resign or get impeached? Who might Agnew appoint to the vacant VP slot(Connaly,Ford,Dole, Brooke or even Regean)? How does the race turn out on the Democratic side? How is Wallace's candidacy effected without his assasination attempt? Who wins the General election in 72 and what are some other long term effects?

Then Spiro Agnew becomes President of the United States. We know that
Agnew was forced to resign in October of '73 because he didn't pay his income
taxes. Ford would be the logical choice. Wallace's candidacy would only be
minimally affected.
 
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