For want of a trench: the Battle of Medina

The POD is that Salman of Persia never converts to Islam, and never gives the idea of digging a trench around Mecca.
In March 627, the Muslims, tired of hiding in the city of Medina since being driven from Mecca, meet the army of the Quraysh and their allies in open battle, and lose. Muhammed is killed in the battle, Medina is looted and the remaining Muslims, led by Ali, flee to Ethiopia.
Over the next several years, the old order is reimposed over the Arabian peninsula, with the Quraysh tribe even more powerful than before, controlling Medina as well as Mecca. The leading tribes are just as corrupt as before, if not more, with virtually no protection for the poor or for younger children of powerful clans. The Quraysh buddy up with the Persians, who are still smarting from their defeat from the Byzantines. Heraclius, for his part, is consolidating his gains for the moment; in Ethiopia, the Meccan's desecration of the church in Sanaa is not forgotten, and the Christian king makes friends with Ali, who has established himself as the leader of the Muslim emigrees (most of those survivors who would be Sunnis in OTL decide to leave to establish their own community, whether by land to central Africa or by sea to somewhere else).
Around 632-635, discontent boils over in the Arabian peninsula, and revolts against the most powerful tribes break out. The Ethiopian Negus decides to take this opportunity: he arms Ali and the rest of the exiles, and they land in Arabia, marching towards Mecca. Ali captures Mecca, and scourges the idols from the Shrine of the Qa'ba. In exchange, Ethiopia regains Yemen.
So now we have a Muslim state centered in Mecca, backed by Ethiopia, a pagan state centered in Medina backed by Persia, and things are probably going to flare into all out war soon.
So, how plausible is this? Please point out any errors I made.
 
The POD is that Salman of Persia never converts to Islam, and never gives the idea of digging a trench around Mecca.
In March 627, the Muslims, tired of hiding in the city of Medina since being driven from Mecca, meet the army of the Quraysh and their allies in open battle, and lose. Muhammed is killed in the battle, Medina is looted and the remaining Muslims, led by Ali, flee to Ethiopia.
Over the next several years, the old order is reimposed over the Arabian peninsula, with the Quraysh tribe even more powerful than before, controlling Medina as well as Mecca. The leading tribes are just as corrupt as before, if not more, with virtually no protection for the poor or for younger children of powerful clans. The Quraysh buddy up with the Persians, who are still smarting from their defeat from the Byzantines. Heraclius, for his part, is consolidating his gains for the moment; in Ethiopia, the Meccan's desecration of the church in Sanaa is not forgotten, and the Christian king makes friends with Ali, who has established himself as the leader of the Muslim emigrees (most of those survivors who would be Sunnis in OTL decide to leave to establish their own community, whether by land to central Africa or by sea to somewhere else).
Around 632-635, discontent boils over in the Arabian peninsula, and revolts against the most powerful tribes break out. The Ethiopian Negus decides to take this opportunity: he arms Ali and the rest of the exiles, and they land in Arabia, marching towards Mecca. Ali captures Mecca, and scourges the idols from the Shrine of the Qa'ba. In exchange, Ethiopia regains Yemen.
So now we have a Muslim state centered in Mecca, backed by Ethiopia, a pagan state centered in Medina backed by Persia, and things are probably going to flare into all out war soon.
So, how plausible is this? Please point out any errors I made.

Why would they flee to Ethiopia? The Ethiopians hated Arabs and were Christian.
 
That's a slight oversimplification, but you're right in this case.

So? Oversimplification is usually the only way to get your point across. Shorter answer means a smaller window for error, which leaves less room for holes to be poked. Simple logic. :D
 
Why would they flee to Ethiopia? The Ethiopians hated Arabs and were Christian.

Well there was the history though.... ;)

That's a slight oversimplification, but you're right in this case.

Yeah, you're not wrong... ;)

So? Oversimplification is usually the only way to get your point across. Shorter answer means a smaller window for error, which leaves less room for holes to be poked. Simple logic. :D

Hmm, okay then ;) !


Now explain to me why the hell did the King of Ethiopia accept the Muslim refugees that was sent by Muhammad there in 615 AD !!
 

Rockingham

Banned
I think the suggestion was that the Ethiopians saw them as possible allies agains the actual Arabs in Arabia.
 
Didn't muslims flee to Ethiopia for a while IOTL.
Supposidly it's even in the koran to leave Ethiopia alone.
 
Didn't muslims flee to Ethiopia for a while IOTL.
Supposidly it's even in the koran to leave Ethiopia alone.

Indeed it is; during the Hijra, most of the Muslims fled to Ethiopia, and the Ethiopians protected them, allowed them to settle in their lands and practice their faith.

After Mohammed had conquered Mecca, some of these migrants returned, but a good number of them stayed in Ethiopia.

And thanks to the tolerance of the Ethiopians, this Muslim community survived, and still exists today.
 
Well there was the history though.... ;)



Yeah, you're not wrong... ;)



Hmm, okay then ;) !


Now explain to me why the hell did the King of Ethiopia accept the Muslim refugees that was sent by Muhammad there in 615 AD !!

Hmmm... I seemed to have overlooked something...

*turns around and runs*
 
Part Two

So now we're up to 636: the pagan tribes are still squabbling, unable to unite, and this allows the Muslims to march on, and recapture Medina. This shows the pagan Arabs that they have to unite behind one leader: with Abu Safyan dead after the second battle of Medina, they pick his son, Muawyiah.
Muawyiah organizes the remianing tribes on his side into a powerful army, and manges with the help of his Persian allies to hold off the Muslims for another six years (in this timeline, they're the ones who introduce siege warfare to the peninsula). In 642, the tide turns when Constans II becomes the Byzantine Emperor, and attacks Persia once again. Persia can no longer support Muawayiah, and the Muslims finish off the pagans, conquering the entire peninsula, while the Byzantine-Persian border gets pushed further east (maybe to the Euphrates?)
 
This is interesting.

What is Islam like doctrine-wise with Mohammed dead and his surviving followers in exile for several years in Ethiopia?
 
RE:

It's mostly Shia: the would be Sunnis either died in the first battle of Medina, (like Abu Bakr and Umar) or decided to leave for other shores (like Uthman). One thing I think might change is that the Arabs might change to a solar calendar, dating from the capture of Mecca, with Muhammed not living long enough to condemn it like he did in our world.
 
If Ethiopia gets it S*** together, and rebuilds the Marib Dam and Irrigation system, It could hold Yemen for Centuries.
It was the collaspe of the Dam in the 500's that lead to Ethiopia losing Yemen and the Rise of the Quraysh in Mecca.
 
Part 3

Ali only gets two years as Caliph: he didn't believe reports that his rule over the peninsula was more tenuous than he thought, and was assasinated for it. In 644, his son Hasan, becomes Caliph in this time, and spends the next five years of his reign trying to finally bring the peninsula under control. In the meantime, his younger brother Husyan is accompanying a Byzantine army making yet another attack on Persia: Constans II wants to shore up the eastern border.
The Arab-Byzantine force is succesful, and the Persians have to retreat behind the Tigris this time. The Byzantines get the north part of Iraq, the Arabs the south: the boundary line is marked by a fortress the Byzantines build, on the other side of the Tigris from where Baghdad would be in our world.
In 649, Hasan prepares to deliver the killing blow to the dissent Arabs outside of Saqifah: though the Muslims are victorious, Hasan himself is mortally wounded, and his younger brother becomes Caliph. Husayn decides that the only way to end the strife between Arabs is to direct it outward.
Luckily for him, the Persian empire is about to explode: after his latest defeat, the Persian emperor invites a priest from the Byzantine Empire to teach him about the Bible: this sets off the Mazdaists, the Jews who have settled there and the community of Arab exiles who still worship the Pagan gods (still under Mu'awayah's leadership). Husyan sweeps in and picks up the pieces: by 655, the entire Persian empire is under his control, except for a Mazdaist remnant in the north, who have invited Turks from Central Asia in as protection.
At the same time, Emperor Constans II gets frustrated with Pope Eugene's refusal to accept monotheletism: Constans has the Pope executed as he did his predecessor Martin, and replaced with Peter, who also holds the office of Patriach of Constantinople.
 
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