For Want of a Rest:

There was an instance right after the Battle of Belmont where Ulysses S. Grant relaxed on a couch for a bit but got up and when he got back a bullet had hit right where his head would have been. Suppose that he had rested just long enough that that bullet would have hit him. What would have been the impact on the US Civil War with *this* butterfly given this one is in 1861? Could the CSA have won without General Grant present on the Union side? Would someone else (like C.F. Smith or George H. Thomas) have taken Grant's place? What happens with Leonidas Polk here? Or Henry Halleck?
 
Tough to say. Who rises to prominence in the West without Grant?

Rosecrans was generally an effective commander. Without a subordinate making a crucial mistake at Chicakamagua, he would probably be remembered as one of the Union's better generals.

Who replaces Grant as commander of the Army of Tennesse? Many of possible replacements are merely competent, not great. Thomas could rise to the top. Sherman is also out there, but he really needed his friendship with Grant to stabilize him - so the Union might effectively lose him as well. Could McPherson rise to the top? Might Prentiss become a top general without being captured at Shiloh?

I think the only way to answer is by baby steps. Start in 1861 and slowly work out the changes to see who is available at what time and determine what happens next.

The war in the east won't change at all, but that's OK. The war was won in the west, and the Union will likely still do well. The may not do well enough by 1864 though to keep Lincoln in office.
 
In my opinion there were only two Union Commanders who understood how to defeat the Confederacy at the strategic level; Grant and Sherman. Winfield Scott understood it as well, but he was a non-factor after the shooting started. Without Grant, the odds are high that Sherman will not rise. You still have some very competent Union generals at the tactical level, but will that translate into the strategic vison needed to defeat the CSA that Grant and Sherman had? That is the question.
 
In my opinion there were only two Union Commanders who understood how to defeat the Confederacy at the strategic level; Grant and Sherman. Winfield Scott understood it as well, but he was a non-factor after the shooting started. Without Grant, the odds are high that Sherman will not rise. You still have some very competent Union generals at the tactical level, but will that translate into the strategic vison needed to defeat the CSA that Grant and Sherman had? That is the question.

Don't you think that the North would have eventually ground the Confederacy down, what with its massively larger population and industrial base?
 
BlackFox5-Charles F. Smith, at least initially, will replace Grant as that's who Halleck actually wanted to command the AoT in the first place. Smith had a lot of what it'd take to have much of the same flair for tactics and aggression Grant did, but his strategic gifts aren't a sure thing given how short a time in the war he actually had. If there is a Replacement for Grant Smith's the most likely candidate. Thomas may well be transferred to the AoT sometime during/after the First Corinth Campaign, which'd be interesting in its own right.

Tank Cdr-I might disagree with that, I think Thomas could pull it off in a fashion with fewer battles but more decisive individual battles, while Sherman had the problem of being suited for army group command more than army command.

Sibirskaya-Yes, and Custer was a flamboyant officer with more aggressiveness than sense. The kind of man to lose the Union the war, not win it.

Azander12-No, not necessarily. The North has the harder job of outright conquest of the South in a war that of necessity will be a long and bloody one. The North not-winning is as much a Southern victory as the South winning the war on its own power.
 
Don't you think that the North would have eventually ground the Confederacy down, what with its massively larger population and industrial base?

Of course it would, but does eventually come before a war weary North votes Lincoln out of office?
 
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