Extract from "The Night Everything Changed - An Account of Election Night May 6-7 2010" by Mark Walsh - published November 2010
As the results started to come in, the revolution indicated by the exit poll didn't seem that evident to the majority of those watching on BBC, ITN or Sky News. The occasional flash ticker message of recounts in constituencies which had never needed them before might have passed unnoticed.
The early seats returned their Labour MPs though with Liberal Democrat candidates chasing them hard. Indeed, while the very early third places didn't look encouraging for those watching from CCHQ, better news came in with gains at Battersea and Basildon South from Labour suggesting the Conservatives could still do well despite the 31% exit poll.
At Cowley Street, the staff had cheered the 34% exit poll number to the rafters but gained seats were proving more elusive than stroing second places. Leeds for example, where the party had had hopes of picking up a second seat, had failed to deliver although Greg Mulholland had massively increased his majority.
Indeed, by 1.30am, the mood was brightest at Labour HQ. The exit poll rating of 26% had been met by a groan but the fear of a Liberal Democrat sweep of the northern heartlands looked to have been repulsed. True, the party had shipped some seats to the Tories but while the majority would go, the possibility of being largest party remained.
And yet straws in the wind kept suggesting something big was happening and just after 1.30am, the storm began to break. City of Durham was called for the Liberal Democrats as was Oldham East & Saddleworth while a recount was to be held at Pendle and Rochdale had been held comfortably by Paul Rowen.
By 2am, though for the television audience, surprises and shocks had been on the periphery, the parties themselves and the more informed journalists and the blogsphere were all sensing something massive developing. Rumours from seats as far apart as Edinburgh South, Guildford and Northampton North suggested the Liberal Democrat advance would yet yield dividends.
As painful as it is to read about the scum of the British political system doing better than OTL in the 2010 election, this continues to be very well-written. I'm half expecting some massive twist that turns the whole thing into a Clegg-Griffin Coalition dystopia... but that's probably because the quality of writing in this is as good as some of the great TLs of this board (Gordon Banks, World of Laughter, Gumbo On The Campaign Trail etc).
Keep 'em coming, can't wait to see how the (seemingly inevitable now) Lib-Lab Coalition turns out. How did Ed Balls do? He was probably the strongest anti-Coalition with the Lib Dems voice in May 2010 and only held his seat by 1000. Have the Lib Dems split the vote enough for the Tories to edge him out and you might eliminate that obstacle.
Yes, the scum of the political system, i.e. the Labour party should hold some seats they would have otherwise lost to the Tories and therefore may be slightly better off.
The math should end up with either coalition being possible.
I agree with your analysis apart from Miliband (D). If the coalition looks like it's going to hold up, surely the "electability" factor will be less important in TTL, thus resulting in David doing less well? Then again, we don't even know who'll be standing...Whoa, that's some top banter right there. You sure showed me! You should be on Mock The Week.
The maths, as I see it, indicates a Lib-Lab pact being much more likely - indeed, the OTL election would have come out this way if a stronger Lib Dems had got more seats off Labour and held a few more against the Tories. Don't get me wrong, I agree it might be plausible, but it'll be Cameron, not Brown, who has to propose a 'rainbow coalition' ITTL, and therefore a Lab-Lib Coalition is far more likely. I'm still holding onto my 'Brown resigns as he offered to Clegg IOTL, Miliband (D) and Clegg form coalition' theory for now. We'll see as more results come in.
(OOC: Thanks for the kind word, Meadow. Shade more teases before we get to the meat)
Friday May 7th 2010 - 12.45am
The Candidate looked across at the growing bundles with a sense of dread and unreality. This can't be happening, she thought. Her Agent looked equally perplexed - a look she hadn't seen often despite six years of marriage.
She had been talked into standing by Steve - how much she might live to regret it - after three glasses of wine at the Christmas Party. Before she had had time to think, the forms had been completed and the interviews carried out. She had been selected at a meeting in a draughty Church hall attended by about twenty people including four activists, three of whom had told her not only that they would be working in the winnable constituency twenty miles away but that she should as well.
Steve had reassured her - she was a paper candidate in an impossible seat. As the campaign started, Regional HQ had produced an A3 newspaper and they had a few thousand copies for her team of deliverers.
The Candidate knew full well she didn't have a team but she had a few good friends and some other volunteers and had recruited three other people along the way. They managed to deliver half the constituency over two weeks. She had even knocked on a few doors with Steve -the response had been polite but not really inspiring.
Then came the debate - the next day the phone hadn't stopped and neither had Steve's mobile. They had run the campaign out of their front room which soon became filled with hastily put-together leaflets and green-as-grass volunteers. They had worked all through that weekend, over the Bank Holiday, and into the week,
On the Monday, two of the activists had returned to help out and they had worked long into the evening preparing new leaflets.
The Candidate suddenly realised how tired she was after four days with little sleep. Steve smiled and touched her arm - he was being called over with the other Agents to resolve disputes over ballot papers. She looked across at a lady who was also looking at the bundles with one of the local Councillors standing next to her - Geoff somethingorother the Candidate struggled to recall his name.
They looked concerned - the Candidate stared at the bundles again. Perhaps she should start being concerned too. There was a pile of washing to be done and what she would tell her Boss on Monday morning if the worst happened - she had barely begun to think about that when Steve beckoned her over - was he smiling ?
I agree with your analysis apart from Miliband (D). If the coalition looks like it's going to hold up, surely the "electability" factor will be less important in TTL, thus resulting in David doing less well? Then again, we don't even know who'll be standing...
EDIT: Almost forgot: great writing, stodge! Looking forward to the next update.
3) While the Labour/Lib Dem teams hammer out a Coalition Agreement, David Miliband's leadership team and Miliband himself visit every MP and ensure their loyalty, in the interests of a quick changeover - 'we can't have poor Gordon staggering on for a three month leadership contest, it would let that fucker Clegg look like he was the real PM'.
...so that's the process by which I imagined it - short of a very stubborn Balls forcing a contest I don't see anyone other than David Miliband being the heir presumptive. Remember the key thing would be getting a new leader and PM immediately, not necessarily getting the right one.
Stodge - sorry if the above distracts from whatever is going to actually happen here, and I love the latest update. Plausible blogposts without being overly laden with 'lol', Chekhov's Usernames, and internetspeak.
In other words, 24 hours which would probably resemble the wonderful "Spinners and Losers" episode from The Thick Of It.
I suspect that David M would have to have quite a different negotiation team from the one that Labour did lose. So the agreement may not quite be finished.
Would Labour take a second coronation or would have leave bitterness for later - especially from Mr + Mrs Teddy Testicles (if the Tories are on 31, then Teddy is safe).
1) Clegg negotiates with Brown, says Brown has to go. He does not stipulate any further, though he is known to have no problem with Miliband.
2) Brown, after a small fit, agrees and tells Labour it has 72 hours before he publicly announces his intention to resign as Labour leader.
3) While the Labour/Lib Dem teams hammer out a Coalition Agreement, David Miliband's leadership team and Miliband himself visit every MP and ensure their loyalty, in the interests of a quick changeover - 'we can't have poor Gordon staggering on for a three month leadership contest, it would let that fucker Clegg look like he was the real PM'.
4) Miliband informs Brown that he, like Brown did three years ago, has arranged for no other MP to have enough nominations to stand. This is all in the interests of 'party unity' and 'continuity of government', so even those who wanted the top job (the Balls household and Ed Miliband in particular) have accepted the need to get a new leader and PM in immediately - the backbiting can wait until later.
5) Gordon Brown resigns as leader of the Labour Party.
6) A day later, David Miliband is unanimously elected leader of the Labour Party as the contest goes no further than the nominating stage.
7) Another day later, Miliband having met with Clegg and finalised the agreement, Brown travels to the Palace and resigns, recommending Her Majesty call upon Mr Miliband of South Shields to form a government.
8) The Labour-Liberal Democrat Coalition government formally comes into being when David Miliband walks into Downing Street. Nick Clegg arrives an hour later and is met on the doorstep by the new PM, who is smiling from ear to ear.
- the District and Borough seats had been won on a 20% swing, Geoff had told her, more than enough to take the seat.
31% exit poll
On the exit poll, I didn't want to give the seat numbers away too early so my excuse is that this election is so remarkable and unusual and bearing in mind the problems from 1992 that the news organisations didn't want to be too specific too early. They have all called it a Hung Parliament of course but no one knew at 10pm how the actual distribution of votes would translate into seats.
By 4am it's becoming a shade clearer....