For Want of a Completion (a college football TL)

[Jasen777]

The Rose Bowl, Pasadena California, Dec. 3rd, 2006

2nd ranked USC had come into the game a large favorite over 6-5 UCLA. But it was an unexpectedly close game early as Bruin QB Patrick Cowan surprised the Tojans with several key runs, including a TD in the first quarter. Meanwhile USC's offensive struggled against a surprisingly effective UCLA defensive. However USC finally managed to reach the end zone on a drive right before half time (their only score at the point other than a safety) and took the lead 9-7.

After forcing a poor USC punt on the first drive in the 2nd half, UCLA faced a key 3rd down and 9 on USC's 28. Cowan was flushed from the pocket by the USC rush, keeping his eyes down field he looked for a receiver, but as he threw his plant foot slipped a little, and the pass sailed to the right of receiver Marcus Everett who was unable to make the catch. On the next play the 45 yard field goal attempt went wide right.

On the ensuing drive USC managed a field goal to go up 12-7. Feeling the pressure now that they needed a touchdown to regain the lead, Cowan made a poor decision, throwing into double coverage. The pass was deflected and fell to linebacker Brian Cushing who took the interception back for a touchdown. Normality restored, USC went on to win the game 25-7 and clinch their spot in the the BCS title game against Ohio St.


2006-7 College Football Season

BCS Bowl Games (final BCS ranking):

Title Game: (2) USC over (1) Ohio St: 37-24
Fiesta Bowl: (6) Louisville over (10) Oklahoma: 37-34
Orange Bowl: (5) LSU over (14) Wake Forest: 24-10
Rose Bowl: (8) Boise St over (4) Michigan: 34-30
Sugar Bowl: (3) Florida over (11) Notre Dame: 34-9


Notes: In OTL, UCLA completed the pass and made a field goal on the drive. They held on to win when USC's final drive was ended with a deflection interception. With USC's fall Florida moved up to #2. This was somewhat controversial as they passed Michigan after championship week when Michigan was idle and Michigan's only loss had come by 3 points at undisputed number one Ohio St, but pollsters choose a new matchup over the rematch. Florida won the title game.

The OTL Boise St / Oklahoma classic was butterflied due to USC's promotion to the title game and the Rose Bowl's obligation to take an eligible non-AQ school in that scenario, but here they catch Michigan off guard.

 

[Jasen777]

2007 College Football Preview: Can Anyone Stop USC?

By: Emma Righther

In the last 3 seasons only Vince Young has stopped Pete Carroll's Trojans. Winners of 2 of the last 3 titles, the other year losing in the title game thanks to the previously mentioned Vince Young, the world of college football is bracing for more of the same this season.

USC is the near unanimous choice for preseason number 1, and for good reason. Senior quarterback John David Booty has forgone the draft to return for another run with an offense that has lost only a few players and has been reloaded with perhaps even greater talent in their place. The defense promises to be their best yet, with 10 returning starters from last year's team.

Indeed, USC's true might not be their 2007 opponents, but history. As Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh said, “They may be the best team in the history of college football,” or as new Arizona St. coach Dennis Erickson put it, “They should be in the league I was really successful in, the National football league.”

There will be other good teams besides USC this season, but they all have serious flaws. Florida wonder freshmen Tim Tebow returns to now lead the Gators full time, but 9 defensive starters do not. Louisville has lost coach Petrino to the NFL. West Virginia should have a very potent offense, but they don't have the sheer athleticism on defensive to be a truly elite team, at least not on the level of an USC. Both Ohio St and LSU are losing star QBs, and Oklahoma has lost their QB as well, though Thompson wasn't a star. Texas and Virginia Tech are probably a year away from being legitimate threats.

I should probably just practice now. “Fight On!”



Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge Louisiana, Oct. 20th, 2007

A week after their devastating 3 overtime lost at Kentucky, LSU (which had fallen from 1st to 5th in the coach's poll) returned home to 18th ranked Auburn. Auburn served notice they came to play by scoring a touchdown on the opening drive. Their offense struggled against LSU's defense for most of the rest of the game, but 2 LSU turnovers kept them close and quarterback Brandon Cox got hot late and lead Auburn on a touchdown drive to go back ahead 24-23 with only 3 minutes left in the game.

Quarterback Matt Flynn lead LSU down the field until the reached the Auburn 22 yard line with 39 seconds left and the clock running. With LSU facing a 3rd down and 9 neither coach decide to stop the clock and LSU didn't snap until 7 seconds were left. The prudent play would have been a quick pass to the sideline to give Colt Davis (3 for 3 on FGs on the day) a shorter kick for the win. But Flynn took a 3 step drop and homed on in wideout Demetrius Byrd who ran a corner pattern to the back of the end zone. Flynn launch a well aimed throw but Auburn corner Pat Lee recovered and stuck his hand in at the last second, the ball popping up as both players crashed to the ground. Byrd managed to come up with the ball from his back, making a highlight reel catch. But his was out of bounds and the clock had expired. LSU had lost.


Final Week Chaos

2007 was the Year of the Upset. Most remembered for Appalachian St winning at The Big House and USC losing to Stanford as a 42 point favorite, it did not disappoint in it's final regular season week. BCS ranked #1 Missouri lost the Big 12 Championship game to #8 Oklahoma, though it technically wasn't an upset since OU was favored. And shockingly #2 West Virginia lost to a Pittsburgh team that was just 4-7 entering the game.

#3 Ohio St, which had been idle, the Big 10 not having a title game, was a sure bet to move to #1 in at least the voting polls and thus was near certain to make the title game. Besides being the Big 10 champ, they were the only major conference team to finish the season with 1 loss, besides of course #5 Kansas, who had missed the Big 12 title game due to losing to Missouri and to whom the voters had never afforded the respect that most major conference schools with their record would get.

#4 Georgia had also been idle, due to missing the SEC title game on the head to head tiebreaker with Tennessee. #6 Virginia Tech had avenged an earlier loss to Boston College, winning the ACC championship. #7 USC had been idle (the PAC 10 also not having a title game), and of course #8 Oklahoma had won the Big 12 title game over #1 Missouri.

Most expected either Georgia to move up to #2 and play for the title despite not even playing for their conference title, or for OU to make the jump based on their win over Missouri, or even somehow for defending champion USC to get back to the title game and rematch with Ohio St. But the final BCS rankings shook the college football world and beyond.

Despite Oklahoma placing 2nd in both the Coaches poll and the Harris Interactive poll, the 2 voting polls used in the BCS formula, and USC and Georgia splitting 3rd and 4th in those polls, 2nd in the BCS standings, and the title game spot, went to Virginia Tech. Tech had placed 5th in both of the voting polls but 1st in the computer polls, and with the BCS rankings based on the percentage of points possible from a poll/group of polls, Virginia Tech had pulled the 2nd spot out over Oklahoma in such a close result that reporters were left looking up what to call numbers that were 3 spots after the period.

Outrage was strong and immediate. Oklahoma fans of course felt the most robbed. But Georgia and USC supporters both felt that they should have been ranked ahead of the other and that Oklahoma as well shouldn't have passed them in the last week. Additionally USC fans wondered how Missouri and Kansas were ahead of them. Ironically the BCS's decision to move from using percent of points possible instead of the mere rank due to previous controversies had really came back to haunt them.

The most hatred though was saved for the computer polls. This only intensified when Jeff Sagarin (the creator of one of the computer polls used in the BCS average) gave an interview in which he insisted that the computer polls weren't to blame. “Virginia Tech is only #1 in the version of my rankings the BCS uses, the one where they don't allow us to consider margin of victory. In my most accurate rankings, Virginia Tech is 5th.”

Another issue arouse over the fact that the formulas that determined the “computer” polls were secret. Noticing this, conspiracies theories abounded that someone could have paid off one of the computer poll creators to to rank Virginia Tech higher (or Oklahoma lower), as a difference of one spot in one of the polls could have altered the outcome. The most distasteful theory was that “someone” had rigged it to get Virginia Tech into the title game to bring more attention to the mass shooting that had occurred on their campus earlier in the year...


2007-8 College Football Major Bowls

National Champion: Ohio St.

Title Game: (1) Ohio St over (2) Virginia Tech: 17-13

Fiesta Bowl: (9) West Virginia over (3) Oklahoma: 48-28
Orange Bowl: (6) Kansas over (4) Georgia: 28-27
Rose Bowl: (7) USC over (13) Illinois: 49-17
Sugar Bowl: (12) Tennessee over (10) Hawaii: 27-14


Notes:

OTL Auburn's DB didn't quite get there in time and Byrd made a nice catch to win the game for LSU, who despite a loss to Arkansas later, managed to back into the title game, which they won. The BCS controversy at the end is my best guess at what the rankings would have been with LSU not pulling out the Auburn game. BCS controversy wasn't what I was/am going for but I walked right into a humdinger. (Has anyone guessed what I am going for)?

The Rose (due to them wanting a PAC/BIG matchup) and the Fiesta (luck) here are OTL matchups with those scores, though one could certainly argue they'd be different due to the different psychology in play. I gave Tennessee the win over Auburn in the alt SEC title game.

 

[Jasen777]

BCS Formula Change

At the 2008 meetings the powers that be in college football had much to discuss. First was the BCS rankings controversy, which hadn't faded with Virginia Tech putting up a good fight in the title game and Oklahoma's and Georgia's losses in the bowl games.

The BCS rankings had started, a bit experimentally, as a way to rank teams that didn't rely overly much upon subjective opinion. The voting polls were included, but so were (to various extents and not all at the same time) computer rankings, strength of schedule, quality win bonuses, and loss penalties. From an analytic mindset there were issues, for instance the strength of schedule metric used (opponents' record and opponents' opponents' record) wasn't the best and the weight it was given in the overall ranking was rather arbitrary.

But those sort of issues drew little interest from the common fan and from the press. The controversies arose whenever a team got into the title game that wasn't in the top 2 in the voting polls, despite the fact that the BCS formula was never supposed to be a simple rubber stamp of the polls. After USC in 2003 fell to 3rd in the BCS despite being first in the voting polls (and ultimately leading to a split title), the BCS formula was drastically overhauled to include only the 2 voting polls (which increased in importance to 2/3 of the overall ranking) and the computer polls. The 2007 controversy, which saw Virginia Tech 5th in the voting polls but 2nd in the BCS rankings, was the final straw for the attempt to provide a measure of objectivity in the rankings (and it would come back to haunt them in short fashion). Going forward the BCS would be a simple average of the Harris Poll and the Coaches' Poll, and by rank, not by percentage of points possible. The computer polls, which would still not be allowed to consider margin of victory, would be used only as a tiebreaker.


Unseeded Plus One

That was the easy part of the off-season meetings however. The BSC TV deals (with the exception of the Rose Bowl) were set to expire after the '09-'10 season and negotiations for a new deal would be starting soon. However they first had to consider what they would be offering TV. There was some support among fans for a playoff, but very little among the conference commissioners and school presidents and athletic directors. Even SEC commissioner Mike Slive, whose plan would amount to a back door mini-playoff, resolutely avoided using the “p-word”.

Slive's plan was termed the “Plus One”, specifically a seeded plus one. The plan was to add a 5th bowl to the 4 BCS bowl games, and have 2 of them match up the top 4 teams in the BCS rankings (1 vs. 4, and 2 vs. 3) and then play the title game from the winner of those 2 bowls. Slive's plan, perhaps put forth due to the SEC getting left out of the title game the last 4 years, was a bold plan. Too bold for most, as it drew only cautious support from the ACC, indifference from the smaller conferences, disapproval from the Big 12 and Big East which didn't want to risk the bowl setup, and complete rejection from the Big 10 and the Pac 10. Big 10 commissioner Jim Delaney was the spokesperson for the anti-playoff position and perhaps rightly, saw this plan as a playoff that would eventually grow and overturn the Bowl system. It also meant the Rose Bowl would lose out on it's Big/Pac matchup even more often.

It appeared the status quo would triumph when Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe proposed the unseeded plus one plan. It would also add another bowl to the BCS lineup. However, the 5 bowls would retain their conference affiliations all the time. The BCS would then release a final poll after the bowl games, after which the top 2 would then play in the title game. Thus more than just the top 2 teams after the regular season would still have a chance to be in the title game, such as Oklahoma, Georgia, and USC last season. Slive objected that selecting 2 teams after the bowls might not be easier than selecting 2 before the bowls, but Delaney liked the plan a lot as it avoided the semblance of the p-word and guaranteed the Rose Bowl could always have their Big 10 champion vs. Pac 10 champion matchup. With the Big 10 and Pac 10 on board, and the Big East once the Cotton Bowl was added with the stipulation that their tie-in would be the Big East champion, the smaller conferences were then brought in line and the unseeded plus one was adopted, to start with the new TV deal for the 2010-11 season.

If one squinted you could call it a playoff – one with 5 semi-finals for 2 spots in the final. A mess only college football could come up with.


Future BCS Structure:

National Title Game – as another money grab, the title game host wouldn't necessarily be at one of the BCS game sites, but would be put out for bid, similar to the Super Bowl. Though the first would be held at the to be complete Cowboys Stadium as part of the deal for the Cotton Bowl moving there, becoming a BCS bowl and accepting the Big East champion as their tie-in.

Bowls and tie-ins

Rose Bowl: Pac 10 champion vs. Big 10 champion

Cotton Bowl: Big East champion vs. at-large

Fiesta Bowl: Big 12 champion vs. at-large

Sugar Bowl: SEC champion vs. at-large

Orange Bowl: ACC champion vs. at-large

At-large criteria – selection pool qualifiers in order of precedent, limit of 2 schools from a conference enforced – pool size minimum of 4

A. Top non-AQ conference champ if in top 12
B. Notre Dame if in top 10
C. Schools ranked 1 and 2 if not AQ champ or (AB)
D. Schools ranked 3 and 4 if not AQ champ or (ABC)
E. Top non-AQ conference champion if top 16, if not (CD) and (A) not used
F. Other schools in top 12, not (A-E)
G. Top non-AQ conference champ if in top 20 and not (CDF) and (AE) not used.
H. Other schools in top 16, not (A-G)
I. Other schools in top 20, not (A-H)
J. Top non-AQ conference champ if in top 25 and not (CDFHI) and (AEG) not used.
K. Other schools in top 25, not (A-J)


Notes: To his credit Slive did introduce the seeded plus one plan in 2008 despite in OTL the BCS working out very well for the SEC. It was shot down but is essentially the system we have now after ESPN gobbled up all the TV rights and pushed for it and complaints about SEC dominance and especially the LSU/Alabama rematch that left out 1-loss conference champion OSU (with the exception of having a committee instead of the BCS rankings and calling it a playoff). The unseeded plan was kicked around but was never adopted.

 

[Jasen777]

Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Nov. 8th, 2008

High ranking teams do not simply walk into Kinnick stadium and emerge victorious. The visitor's locker room, and everything in it, is painted a pacifying pink (though a recent stadium upgrade has seen that the hot water is more reliable at least). The hostile fans are powered by AC/DC and beer that had to be smuggled into the “dry” stadium. Perhaps more importantly, Iowa had a solid defense, a dogged running game, and a tendency to play down or up to the competition that could keep them in any game, especially at home (their 4 losses by a combined total of 12 points). So when #3 Penn St traveled to play 5-4 Iowa, the result was far from given.

True to form, Iowa's defense and a workhorse performance from running back Shonn Greene (28 carries, 117 yards, 2 TD's) kept them in the game, just down 21-23, with the ball and one last chance to win it. But on a crucial 3rd down and 6 at Penn St's 25, the ball slipped from QB Richard Stanzi's hand as he dropped back to pass, Iowa recovered, but was forced to attempt a 45 yard field goal to win the game. When the hurried attempt by the back up kicker sailed wide right, Penn St had survived Kinnick Stadium.


Big 12 South and BCS Controversies

A great regular season in the Big 12 saw the South division end in a 3 way tie with Texas, OU, and Texas Tech all finished with identical 11-1 (7-1) records. Texas had bested OU 45-35 in the Red River Shootout on Oct, 11th, Tech defeated Texas in dramatic fashion in Lubbock 39-33 Nov. 1st, and OU had shredded Tech in Norman 65-22 on Nov. 22nd. The Big 12 tie breaking procedures, to see who would represent the South in the conference championship game, were inadequate for the task and defaulted to final tie-breaker: whoever was ranked higher in the BCS standings.

Voters were aware of this heading into the final week of the regular season in which all 3 teams won. Perhaps due to Mac Brown's public plea that they should be ranked ahead of OU since they beat them on the field (WHICH WAS A REALLY STUPID ARGUMENT SINCE IT WAS A 3-WAY TIE AND BY THE SAME MEASURE TECH SHOULD BE RANKED AHEAD OF UT), the final week saw Texas move back ahead of OU in the Harris poll to #5 (OU had passed them after UT's loss to Texas Tech). In the Coaches' poll Texas made up a lot of ground, but fell one point short of OU to #4, meaning if even one voter had switched Texas ahead of OU on the ballot Texas would have been ahead of OU in both polls and had gone to the Big 12 title game (or if one had moved UT up a spot or OU down a spot from their submitted ballot, the schools would be tied and UT would be ahead in the BCS). Texas Tech, which had lost last and worst and didn't have the same brand power, was at #9 in both polls.

Since the BCS took the polls by rank instead of percentage of points possible beginning in this season, the computers broke the tie and decided in favor of Oklahoma. The complaints from Austin were loud indeed. The 1 point difference in the coaches poll wouldn't have mattered as much in the systems used before this season, as OU's lead in the computer polls was enough to overcome Texas' lead in the Harris poll and a hypothetical Texas lead in the Coaches' poll. But in the new system that single point was everything. The “it was decided on the field” argument was silly, but there were some very valid complaints about the Coaches' poll. Brown alleged that coaches with connections to Stoops voted Texas lower on purpose to keep them out of the Conference championship, and perhaps that Stoops was more popular nationally and that that played a factor. And indeed Kansas coach Mangino and Texas Tech's coach Mike Leech, both who coached under Stoops, voted OU ahead of Texas with several teams in between, which was somewhat questionable, but not indefensible. Mangino refused questions on the issue, but Leech was open on the subject. “We beat Texas. OU kicked our asses. So obviously I put OU ahead of us, and then I put us, and then I put Florida (who was also 11-1) and USC (10-1) because they've both had great seasons, and then I put that school in Austin. Seemed fair. Maybe I should have had Utah (12-0) and Boise (12-0) higher. I don't know”.

That wasn't the worst from the Coaches' poll however. Although it was the worst kept secret in sports that many coaches didn't actually fill out “their” ballots, Baylor coach Art Briles' comments ignited a fire storm. When a reporter asked him why he had OU 3rd and Texas 7th, he answered, “Well I didn't. Look, I never lie. I didn't vote, I passed the ballot along to the sports information director, presumably he voted.” Texas fans were outraged and fans around the country could no longer ignore the issue of coaches not actually voting in the coaches' poll. Texas president, William Powers Jr, called for Briles' vote to be tossed out due to his confession and for the poll to be recalculated, which would put Texas in the Big 12 title game instead of OU. But there was no procedure to do so and, of course, it was a certainty that many of the votes that placed Texas ahead of OU weren't from actual coaches either.

In any case, it was Oklahoma that went to the Big 12 title game and beat #20 Missouri. And then the expected title game between undefeateds Penn St. and Alabama was derailed by Florida's win over Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Florida had already been ahead of Oklahoma (and Texas) in the Harris poll, and expected the win would over #1 Alabama would propel them over Oklahoma, who had only beaten #20 Missouri and whose selection for their conference title game was controversial. But they fell short in the coaching poll. By one point. And with the polls split, the computers once again choose Oklahoma, and so they finished 2nd in the BCS and would face Penn St in the title game. Florida fans were upset of course, and SEC fans in general were as their champion kept getting left out of the title game, in part because of the strength of their conference. Alabama coach Nick Saban was particularly irate, noting that if the SEC didn't have a championship game, like the Big 10 didn't, that they would be in the title game, and that everyone should have to play by the same rules. Undefeated Utah and Boise St were not particularly moved by this argument. Some pointed out that this situation would be better resolved with the new plus one plan that would start in 2 years, but of course that was not certain as the bowl matchps would have been different.

And when Penn St's defense proved no match for Sam Bradford and Oklahoma's offense in OU's 47-24 win the controversy got even stronger. OU won the BCS trophy and on the basis of finishing first in the Coaches' poll (who by contract were required to vote the title game winner at #1) won that share of the national title. Florida had entered the bowls at #2 in the AP poll, which determined the other half of the most recognized title awarders. After Penn St's loss they had hoped to get a share of the title via the AP poll as USC had done in 2003-4 when LSU defeated Oklahoma in the BCS title game. But it wasn't to be as Oklahoma's high octane win over undefeated Penn St moved them pass Florida who had a tougher than expected contest with a like under regarded Utah.


2008-9 College Football Major Bowls

Title Game: (2) Oklahoma over (1) Penn St. 47-24

Fiesta Bowl: (4) Texas over (6) Alabama 27-21
Orange Bowl: (19) Virginia Tech over (12) Cincinnati 20-7
Rose Bowl: (5) USC over (10) Ohio St. 34-17
Sugar Bowl: (3) Florida over (7) Utah 31-28


Notes: OTL Stanzi passed for a first down on the play and they were able to attempt a shorter field goal, which they made. With the loss Penn St didn't make the title game, and Florida won the title over Oklahoma.



Next time: Delaney drops the R bomb.

 

[Jasen777]

TV

While the Big 12 South controversy was reaching it peak last season, ESPN took a few headlines away by securing the broadcast rights to the BCS games, other than the Rose which was already under an ABC contract, for four years starting with the 2010-11 season. Media watchers were shocked by their high offer which outbid FOX, who was seeking to keep the games, by over $120 million. In addition, ESPN scooped up the rights to Big East games.


Season

The 2009 season was one marked by revenge. In a rare double revenge game (for OU because they had lost, and Texas because they felt that OU cheated them in the polls in route to their title), Texas prevailed in the Red River Shootout 16-13 after a tough defensive struggle. In the SEC, Florida and Alabama once again entered the conference title game undefeated, but Alabama got their revenge for last year and beat Florida 32-13.

Cincinnati also went undefeated in a major conference (the Big East), and TCU and Boise St went undefeated in the Mt. West and WAC receptively. Even though this left a log jam of 5 undefeated schools, the public was in large support of the Alabama / Texas title game, thought the Big East protested they were being disrespected as a major conference and people claimed it once again showed the bias against the non-major conferences, especially when TCU and Boise St were matched up in a bowl game and thus prevented from having a chance of upsetting a major conference school.

The title game set up another chance for revenge, as Texas had beaten Alabama and last year's Fiesta Bowl, but it was not to be as Colt McCoy threw a go ahead TD pass with under 2 minutes left in the game and Texas hung on to win 28-24.


2009-10 College Football Major Bowls

Title Game: (1) Texas over (2) Alabama 28-24

Fiesta Bowl: (6) Boise St over (3) TCU 17-10
Orange Bowl: (10) Iowa over (9) Georgia Tech 24-14
Rose Bowl: (8) Ohio st over (7) Oregon 26-17
Sugar Bowl: (5) Florida over (4) Cincinnati 51-24


Realignment

In December, after the regular season but before the bowl games, Big 10 commissioner Jim Delaney shook the college football world with the announcement that the Big 10 was looking to expand “to at least 12 schools.” Reasons for doing this was to hold a conference title game and to expand into new markets for the sake of their cable network. It was speculated that they had wanted to expand east into the large TV markets there, but the Big East's new TV deal had included a grant of rights to the conference that largely precluded it (the school's rights would stay with the conference even if the school left), for now. It has been speculated that this saved the Big East as a conference.

Shortly after the PAC 10 announced plans to expand, and for the same reasons as the BIG.

Meanwhile the Big 12 was in a full on internal crisis. The northern schools were displeased with the shift in the conference power to the south (both on and off the field) and unequal TV revenue sharing, and of course alarm over the purposed Longhorn Network. Texas A+M was reaching a breaking point with Texas, and the war of words between Texas and Oklahoma threatened a falling out between the conference's most powerful football schools.

As rumors flew around in the 2010 off-season, the Big 12 held meetings to arrange new revenue and TV agreements. They failed. The rumors only intensified. The PAC would swoop in and take 6 schools and when the dust settled there'd four 6-team super conferences. Schools were trying to join the BIG 10, or the SEC, or both. As the calendar turned to June it became semi-confirmed that the PAC was offering invitations to Colorado/OU/OSU/Texas/A+M/Tech and that the Big 10 was in the final stages of offering Nebraska. The PAC deal fell apart among Texas declining over not being able to have the Longhorn Network in that conference, the PAC's reluctance to go to expand past 12 without Texas being in on it and A+M's putting out feelers to the SEC.

However the Big 10 announced Nebraska would be joining and then the PAC went with plan B and invited just Colorado and Utah, both of who quickly accepted. Boise St announced that they would be joining the Mt. West and BYU announced they were planning on becoming independent. All these moves were expected to take place after the 2010-11 season. The Big 12's turmoil continued as Oklahoma's president David Boren stated that OU would be an active player in realignment, that they were not necessarily committed to the Big 12 if it became something other than what it was, and that they would most assuredly not be playing second fiddle to Texas in anything.

Realignment would continue, but there was another season to play first, and the first one under the new plus one plan.


Notes:

OTL ESPN also won the BCS game rights. Since the Cotton Bowl with the Big East tie-in is part of it ITTL, they were also interested in the Big East rights. OTL they was also interested but they didn't make an offer until a year later, after the R bomb had dropped. The Big East initially accepted the offer but then rejected it because of the PAC's new deal with Fox / their network which paid more (this was ultimately the death blow for the Big East. Here the offer is made before all of that and the Big East accepts it.

The Bowls are OTL, except Colt McCoy doesn't get hurt and Texas wins the game. They were driving late to take the lead before turnovers by the backup QB put the game out of reach, I'm firmly convinced they win that game if McCoy didn't get hurt (which he was early in the game).

Anyways, if fits the theme of this TL, which is a SEC “screw”, compared to OTL's SEC wank. My point was to show how even though the SEC was the best conference during the period, their run of title included a lot of luck (getting into a title game or not getting out of a title game due to one play which might very well have been in a game between non-SEC schools), which then started to give them the benefit of the doubt all the time. I originally was not going to have them win one until the lost one OTL, but now the TL is diverging more with a different title structure and conference makeup (it's coming), so we will see.

 

[Jasen777]

2010-11

ACC - Virginia Tech stated 0-2 with losses to Boise St and, very embarrassingly, to James Madison. But they rallied to win 11 straight, including 8-0 ACC record a win over Florida St in the conference title game.

Big East – Uconn (7-5) lost in OT to South Florida (8-4) the last week of the season, throwing the conference title to West Virginia (9-3) who won via head to head tie breaker with Pittsburgh (7-5).

Big Ten – Ohio St (11-1), Wisconsin (11-1), and Michigan St (11-1) finished in a 3-way tie for the conference, all at 7-1. Wisconsin was given the Rose Bowl birth however as they were ranked 1 spot higher in the BCS than Ohio St.

Big 12 – In a season of turmoil off the field for the conference, the on field product managed to match it. Texas had quite the hangover after winning the title, failing to develop a QB to take over for McCoy and finished the season 5-7. Just like 2008, the south division finished in a 3 way tie - OU (10-2), OSU (10-2), Texas A+M (9-3)- and once again Oklahoma benefited from the BCS tie breaker and was selected to face Nebraska (10-2) in the title game, who they beat.

PAC 10 – The conference featured 2 very good and different teams, Oregon finished the regular season undefeated and ranked number 1 in the polls, behind Chip Kelly's perfection of the high speed spread option and star running back LaMichael James. Stanford, playing smashmouth pro-style, finished with just 1-loss, to Oregon, with star QB Andrew Luck, who finished a close 2nd in the Heisman to Mississippi St's Cam Newton.

SEC – Star transfer and Heisman winner Cam Newton and Mississippi St. (10-2) stole the show and the highlights, but LSU (11-1) took the loaded SEC West division, which also saw Alabama and Arkansas ranked, and then defeated surprise East winner South Carolina for the SEC title.

Other – TCU won the Mountain West and finished undefeated and ranked #2 in the country, securing the non-AQ spot in the BCS bowls. In the WAC Boise was also posed to run the table, but a loss in the last week due to kicking woes and star QB Colin Kaepernick to Nevada, somewhat controversially, saw them out of the BCS.


BCS BOWLS

autobid teams in italics

Rose Bowl: (1) Oregon over (4) Wisconsin 27-17

Cotton Bowl: (2) TCU over (16) West Virginia 34-10

Fiesta Bowl: (3) Stanford over (7) Oklahoma 34-27

Sugar Bowl: (6) Ohio St over (5) LSU 24-21

Orange Bowl: (8) Mississippi St. over (12) Virginia Tech - 27-20

LSU's and Wisconsin's losses made it a fairly simply question for the after the bowls poll. Who's #2, TCU or Stanford? Stanford believed they had the better case, a (greatly they would say) tougher schedule than TCU, a much better score against common opponent Oregon St 38-0 to TCU's 31-20 and their only loss was to the #1 ranked team in the country, whereas TCU's toughest opponent had probably been West Virginia (in a quasi home game for TCU at Cowboys Stadium) which after the bowl loss fished ranked 24th. But voters stuck with TCU at #2, and TCU would get to play their third game of the season at Cowboy's Stadium against Oregon for the national title.

But despite a brave effort from QB Andy Dalton and the stingy TCU defense, Oregon Heisman finalist LaMichael James hit a couple long runs in the 4th quarter and Oregon won the title, 33 to 27.


Realignment

The games on the field did nothing to slow down realignment speculation. In September the Big 12 held a meeting to finalize buyout terms by Nebraska and Colorado. Schools such as Kansas St and Baylor pushed for a high fee, hoping that it would help to stabilize the conference. But push-back from A+M, Missouri, and Oklahoma lead to the schools walking with a lower than expected $4 million dollar exit fee. A deal to rework how TV money failed at the meeting also, and just a week later Texas and ESPN came to terms on the Longhorn Network. That was the last straw for Texas A+M who publicly announced they were applying to join the SEC (catching the SEC somewhat off-guard). And although no public announcement was made, it soon became clear from various leaks that Missouri and Oklahoma were seeking to leave the conference, as was probably every Big 12 school save Texas who thought another major conference might take them.

In October SEC Commissioner Slive announced that he expected the SEC to invite Texas A+M (getting a foothold in Texas was a chance too good to pass on), and that the conference was searching for a 14th team in order to balance their divisions. A large number of schools were immediately rumored to be looking to join the SEC, it was probably even true about many of the schools.

This caused BIG commish Jim Delaney to be concerned that SEC could take schools from the ACC that he wanted to add. It soon leaked that Delaney was working on convincing the BIG presidents on adding Maryland and Virginia to the conference. This could get their network on basic cable in the large markets of D.C (7), Baltimore (20), Hampton Roads (36) , and Richmond (45). This may have been what lead David Boren to state in an interview that “the Big 10 was probably Oklahoma's top choice at this point,” so as to try to put pressure on the BIG for an invite (the relationship with Texas was burnt, the PAC had waffled on them without Texas, and the school thought it self too good academically for the SEC).

In December the SEC announced that they would be adding Texas A+M and Virginia Tech. Then the BIG two-upped them by adding Maryland, Virginia, Oklahoma (the lone non AAU school in the group but too good of a football program to pass on), and Missouri. The SEC suddenly found itself with a desire to also have 16 schools to match the BIG. North Carolina was a prime target but hesitated on leaving Tobacco Road. So the SEC violated the gentlemen's agreement and accepted Florida St (which if not a new state for the conference, had a national brand, and 2 schools in Florida is far from the worst thing), and unlike the BIG taking at least a very minor amount of care to consider future divisional alignments, looked west to add another school, decided on taking Kansas.

Notes: So here we have butterflies kicking in a little. Obviously Newton decided to transfer to Miss St, which was on his short list, instead of Auburn. And more than 1 game a year are going different ways. The SEC is not quite the juggernaut it was OTL due to not having it's title run. Mt. West TCU over Stanford (and a few others for that matter) is a decision the playoff committee would never make (thought the Mt. West was getting a fair amount of respect at the time), and this plus one system actually represents the best chance (though not a good one) for non-major conference schools to play for the title that has been used ITTL or OTL.

The BIG and PAC have conference networks, and the SEC is planning on having one, which is why they are going for markets / national draws aggressively (and they also have the money to make it happen), though the PAC ran out of good options when Texas rejected them and they didn't try other Big 12 options passed getting to 12 for a title game. The Big East and ACC do not / aren't planning on networks and with their guaranteed BCS spots have no need to reload with schools just to get to a certain number, it's not worth it for them to expand unless they get a great school to commit.

It's unclear if the gentlemen's agreement (a pact between Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and possibly Kentucky to keep others schools in their states from joining the SEC) was an actual thing or just rumor, in the case it was a thing it's easy to see South Carolina and Georgia betraying Florida so that the last spot was Florida St and not Clemson or Georgia Tech.

 

[Jasen777]

2011-12

By March of 2011, 6 of the Big 12 schools (Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas A+M) had announced plans to leave the conference. Colorado would be playing in the PAC for the 2011 season and Nebraska the Big 10 (now with 12 schools). The other 4 schools would have liked to leave immediately and they could have forced it with the mess that was the Big 12, but their new conferences simply weren't ready scheduling wise, so they would have one more season in the Big 12. For 2011 the Big 12 was set with 10 schools, a round-robin schedule, and no title game (due to an NCAA rule that mandated 12 teams for a conference to have a title game).

The problem was of course for the 2012 season when there would only be 6 schools in the Big 12. Texas' insistence on the Longhorn Network and it's split with Oklahoma had put the conference in danger of an outright collapse. However with the guarantee Fiesta Bowl spot, and TV money still willing to approach something similar to what they had before as long as Texas was there, the conference would survive by gaining new schools. TCU, just coming off a title game appearance, was an obvious choice.

Houston was a candidate for a spot, but neither the non-Texas schools (not wanting to be too Texas heavy) nor the Texas schools (not wanting yet another conference competitor besides TCU) were particularly interested and adding another Texas school. BYU and Boise St were considered, but BYU had just became independent and was reluctant to give that up (and Big 12 schools were concerned about scheduling issues with them), and Big 12 school's presidents balked at inviting a school with as lowly an academic reputation as Boise St.

The Big 12 badly wanted to secure that 8th team as quickly as possible however. The previous year, FedEx CEO Fred Smith had made an offer of 10 million a year to any BCS conference that would take Memphis. The Big 12 decided to take the offer. (Technically Memphis will forgo $10 million dollar in conference TV money payout for the next 15 years and expect to make up the difference with a FedEx sponsorship).


The End of a Classic

With all of the realignment a much grieved casualty would be the Texas/Oklahoma Red River Shootout, which had been played yearly in Dallas at the Texas State Fair. With OU's move to the Big 10 they would be playing 9 conference games and it was deemed politically impossible to not play Oklahoma St, which was enough games against how level opponents as it was, without having another one locked in against Texas. As well the relationship between the schools had been burnt, similarly as had happened between Texas and Texas A+M.

The last game promised to be a good one with both schools entering the game 4-0 and with OU ranked #1 and Texas ranked #6. But it was not to be as the Longhorn defense had no answers for OU QB Laundry and wideouts Ryan Broyles and Kenny Stills, Oklahoma won going away, 55-17. It was the high point of the season for Oklahoma who would go on to finish a disappointing 9-3, though that was better than Texas' fall to 7-5.


BCS BOWLS

autobid teams in italics

Rose Bowl: (5) Oregon over (7) Wisconsin, 45-38
Cotton Bowl: (19) West Virginia over (11) TCU, 52-28
Fiesta Bowl: (2) Alabama over (3) Oklahoma St, 34-27
Sugar Bowl: (4) Stanford over (1) LSU, 17-13
Orange Bowl: (12) Michigan over (16) Clemson, 41-17

#8 Arkansas and #10 South Carolina left out due to 2 teams per conference rule.

#6 Boise St, #9 Kansas St, and #11 Virginia Tech passed over by Orange bowl in favor of Michigan (TCU won the Mt West and got the non AQ conference champion spot).

The bowls, by luck of the bowl selection order, produced a de facto 4 team playoff. Some said this showed their was no need for a formal playoff, others argued instead that they should make things so it always worked this way. The title game featured (1) Alabama against (2) Stanford without much national controversy. Saban won a title with his 2nd team, as Alabama prevailed in the title game 17-10.


Notes:

So I'm going with minimum butterflies cause it's easier. Though this will increase a little with the different schedules. Bowl games (unless they actually played) decided by their bowl game performance and RNG. Fate wanted this one for Bama.

OTL the FedEx president's offer was real and the Big East probably would have gone for it had they not collapsed. Even if Memphis doesn't get FedEx money their TV payout will be higher with the Big 12 - $10 million than they would get in Conference USA. Their academic reputation isn't great but it's better than Boise's.

Moving to the Big 10 is likely a bad move for OU long term since they rely super heavily on Texas for recruiting. That's why they didn't try harder to leave OTL, here of course their relationship with UT went seriously bad so they left anyways.

 

[Jasen777]

2012 Conferences

AQ Conferences (Champion automatically in a BCS game)

8 schools, round-robin schedule, no title game -

ACC – Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. St, Wake Forest

Big East -Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Florida, Syracuse, UConn, West Virginia

Big 8 – Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas St, Memphis, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech


PAC 12 - 12 schools, 2 divisions, 9 conference games, protected crossovers as OTL, title game between division winners

North – California, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, Washington, Washington St
South – Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, UCLA, USC, Utah


SEC - 16 schools, 4 divisions, 8 conference games, some protected crossovers which I'm not listing (everyone has 2 or 3 and barely plays anyone out of their division or crossover), title game between 2 highest ranked division winners

East – Georgia, Florida, Florida St, South Carolina
Central – Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
South – Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Miss. St.
West – Arkansas, LSU, Kansas, Texas A+M


Big 10 - 16 schools, 4 divisions, 9 conference games, crossovers by matrix, title game between 2 highest ranked division or POD winners

Non AQ conferences – top ranked champion makes BCS game, subject to selection criteria rules

Conference USA -

East – East Carolina, Marshall, Southern Miss, Temple, UAB, UCF
West - Houston, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP

MAC -

East – Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent St, Miami (OH), Ohio
West – Ball St, C. Michigan, E. Michigan, N. Illinois, Toledo, W. Michigan

Sunbelt - Arkansas St, FAU, FIU, Lou-Lafayette, Lou-Monroe, N. Texas, Middle Tennessee, Troy, W. Kentucky

Mt. West – Air Force, Boise St, Colorado St, Fresno St, New Mexico, San Diego, UNLV, Wyoming

WAC – Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana Tech, Nevada, New Mexico St, San Jose St, Utah St, UTSA


Independents – Army, BYU, Navy, Notre Dame, UMass


Notes: I assume the Big 12 retains the rights to the Big 8 name, here they bring it back to be accurate troll people. I'm too lazy to work out the SEC crossovers.

Here realignment happens with less stealing of schools from minor conferences (for now) or rather didn't destroy the Big East turn it into the non-AQ AAC (for now), and also there's no seen need to expand past 8 for the major conferences (for now), so the smaller conferences are fairing better (for now) and the WAC looks like it's going to survive (for now). Without the trickle down raiding the Sun Belt (for now), several schools are not moving up to FBS.

Hopefully I didn't screw anything up (for now).

 

[Jasen777]

2012 season

The Big 10 title situation got weird in it's very first season in the new set up. Ohio St went undefeated but was banned from post season play (and therefore the Big 10 title game) as was Penn St. Oklahoma went 10-2 with a loss to Notre Dame out of conference and a surprise loss at Wisconsin to be 8-1 in conference. They won the West Division and as the highest ranked eligible team made the Big 10 championship game. The only other ranked team was Nebraska at 9-3 and 7-2 in conference (losses to Oklahoma, Penn St, and UCLA). But with Penn St ineligible this technically made Nebraska the winner of the Laureates Pod, and thus they got the rematch with OU in the Big 10 title game, where they lost to them again. This was just as well as if there weren't two ranked eligible teams the 2nd spot in the title game would have to have been resolved by a vote of athletic directors.

The SEC had a very strong year with 7 schools ranked in the final top 20 (including all 4 schools in the east division). Newcomer Texas A+M, behind the electric play of Johnny Football, went 11-1 and took down Alabama, but failed to win the West due to a loss to 11-1 LSU. With the East schools beating each other up the SEC title game was a rematch of Alabama and LSU, which Alabama also won.

The PAC saw the continued dual dominance of Oregon and Stanford with this year Stanford having 2 losses but winning the PAC and Oregon completing the season with one loss.

The (re)-newly named Big 8 saw Kansas St go 11-1 in win the conference, with the only blemish a surprising loss in Waco to Baylor.

Clemson went undefeated in the new 8 team ACC, losing their only game to SEC rival South Carolina.

The Big East saw yet another 3-way tie, with Louisville getting the tie breaker this time.

Notre Dame finished the season undefeated, including wins over conference champs Stanford and Oklahoma. They fished the season ranked #1.

10-2 and 15th ranked Boise St got in as the non-AQ representative, to the great disappointment of the MAC where 16th ranked N. Illinois had gone 12-1.


BCS BOWLS

autobid teams in italics

Rose Bowl: (8) Stanford over (10) Oklahoma, 38-20
Cotton Bowl: (3) Texas A+M over (19) Louisville, 47-34
Fiesta Bowl: (5) Kansas St. over (15) Boise St, 27-24
Sugar Bowl: (2) Alabama over (1) Notre Dame, 42-14
Orange Bowl: (4) Oregon over (7) Clemson, 35-27

Notes: All team selections were in by rule before the selection pool expanded to 12 teams for the first time, the AQ champs, Notre Dame via the Notre Dame rule, A+M and Oregon in by the 3-4 ranked rule, and Boise St in by the non-AQ rule.

Alabama's impressive win in what in other systems could have been the title game made it a lock to play in the championship game. The 2nd spot was highly debatable. A+M and Oregon were ranked 3 and 4 and won their bowl games, but hadn't even won their divisions. A+M had beaten Alabama in the regular season, but Oregon's bowl opponent was tougher. Kansas St as a one loss champion and bowl winner was barely considered. In the end voters held firm and gave Alabama a chance to avenge their only loss of their season. Which they did as not even Johnny Football could beat Saban twice in a season and Alabama pocketed back to back titles, beating A+M 27-17.

2013 Off-season

Much of the college football power structure reacted poorly to the all SEC title game and it raised discontent with the unseeded plus one plan to new levels, but it was far from the only complaint about the system. To start with the concept was always kinda silly. Having the BCS games be “semi-finals” but with uneven matchups (a 1 vs. 2, 3 vs. 19, 4 vs. 7 as this year) was criticized. And to their credit, the SEC had always pushed for a seeded plan that would be a de facto 4 team playoff. And now ESPN was lobbying for an outright playoff. The SEC also had complaints that the 2 teams per conference rule was keeping their schools out of the major bowl games they deserved and that this would now be worse with their conference at 16 schools.

The Big East, ACC, and Big 8 (now that OU was gone and Texas was struggling) and the PAC to an extent, felt that their conferences were being overlooked and their teams under-ranked and feared the growing financial gap between the SEC and the Big 10 and their conferences. These things would result and more than just a change in the postseason system.

However deciding on a replacement, if indeed the plus one unseeded system was to be replaced ,was not easy. Slive once again proposed his seeded plus one plan, but the AQ conferences that felt slighted by the ratings did not think that would help necessarily, and the non-AQ conferences felt that it wold likely shut them out of any chance at the title game. The Big 10 and the PAC weren't eager to upset their guaranteed Rose Bowl matchup, but might consider it if the right plan emerged. They lead the push for any “playoff,” which the seeded plan was in all but name, to have only conference champions, or at least, greatly favor conference champions. They did not want something like it would have been this year, 2 teams in it that didn't even win their divisions. But of course with 6 major conferences 2 champions would be sure to be left out every year in a 4 team playoff, even if it were all champions. The SEC counter-argued that prioritizing champions would be unfair to them with their 16 schools, compared to the 8 of some conferences, and that besides their conference was stronger anyways....

No decision would be reached in 2013.

 

[Jasen777]

So I got bored with going year by year and decided to jump ahead to 2018 and the next wave of realignment and postseason change.


2018

The ACC, Big East, Big 8, and PAC all grew increasingly concerned over the Big 10 and SEC making much more TV money, getting (what they considered anyways) preferential treatment in the rankings and bowl selections, and generally being considered superior because they had 16 schools and most of the highest profile schools. So realignment speculation started up again as they tried to address this. Meanwhile since no decision had been made to amend the unseeded plus one plan, it was renewed for 4 years.

This 2 issues would align when the ACC and the Big East merged into the Seaboard Conference for football, and the PAC added Texas, Texas Tech, OSU, and Iowa St from the Big 8 (this helped solved the issues of the under-performing PAC network and the Longhorn Network that ESPN wanted to ditch), both getting to 16 schools for the 2018 season. This decreased the number of major conferences from 6 to 4, and there was discussion of having a four team playoff limited to conference champions, but the SEC was intent on having it be the four best teams (a position the Big 10 had started to come around on since this might have benefited them in recent years but the PAC and now the Seaboard were opposed), and the non-major conferences threaten lawsuit if they were excluded.

The eventual comprise, objections from traditionalists blotted out by ESPN cash, was an 8 team playoff. The four major conference champions would qualify automatically and host a quarter-final on their home field. The highest ranked non-major conference champion would also automatically qualify (and would even host a quarterfinal if they were in the top 4 at the expense of the lowest ranked major conference champion). The remaining 3 spots would go to the highest ranked teams, with no limit on the number a conference could have. Semi-final and Championship games would be put out for sites to bid on (the highest seeded team reaming after the quarterfinals would have the right to select between the 2 semi-final locations). Bowls would no doubt take a serious prestige hit.

Playoff seeding explanation -

Seed 1 through 4 are reserved for the champions of the AQ conferences. The highest ranked non-AQ conference champ gets a spot and so do the three other highest ranked teams by the Playoff rankings, a renamed BCS formula (still an average of the ranks of the Harris and Coaches polls with ties broken by computer polls), these 4 teams are seeded 5-8 in order of their ranking. An exception is if the non-AQ champ is ranked in the top 4, in which case they are seeded in the top 4 according to ranking and the lowest ranked AQ champ drops to the 5th seed.


2018 Conferences -

AQ Conferences (Champion automatically in Playoffs)


Seaboard Conference – A football only conference (schools are in the ACC and Big East respectively for other sports) with divisions identical to the old ACC / Big East conferences. Teams play the other 7 schools in their division and 2 from the other. Notre Dame is contracted to play 5 games a year against Seaboard schools. The title game is between the 2 division winners, unless Notre Dame has a better or equal winning percentage in their contracted games and is ranked higher than a division winner, in which case Notre Dame take the place of the lowest ranked division winner.

Atlantic - Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. St, Wake Forest
East - Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Florida, Syracuse, UConn, West Virginia
Other - Notre Dame


PAC 16 – Teams play the 7 in their division and 2 from the other division every year. Title game is between the two division winners.

West - California, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington St
East - Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah


SEC - Teams play the 7 in their division and 2 from the other division every year. 1 of the 2 crossover is a permanent match-up, the other rotates among the remaining 7. Perhaps Alabama/Tennessee, Arkansas/Virginia Tech, Auburn/Georgia, Kansas/Kentucky, LSU/Florida, Mississippi/South Carolina , Miss St/ Vanderbilt , Texas A+M/Florida St for the protected crossovers.

East - Georgia, Florida, Florida St, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
West - Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kansas, LSU, Mississippi, Miss. St, Texas A+M


Big 10 - Teams play the 7 in their division and 2 from the other division every year. Title game is between the two division winners.

East - Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue, Virginia
West – Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Wisconsin


Non-AQ Conferences – (Highest ranked champion automatically in playoffs)


Mt. West - Teams play the 7 in their division and 2 from the other division every year. Title game is between the two division winners. Presumably no protected crossovers.

West - Boise St, BYU, Fresno St, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego St, San Jose St, UNLV
East - Air Force, Baylor, Colorado St, Kansas St, New Mexico, Memphis, TCU, Wyoming


Conference USA - Teams play the 7 in their division and 2 from the other division every year. Title game is between the two division winners.

East – East Carolina, FAU, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss, Temple, UAB, UCF
West – Houston, Louisiana Tech, N. Texas, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP


MAC - Teams play the 6 in their division and 3 from the other division every year. Title game is between the two division winners.


East – Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent St, Miami (OH), Ohio, UMass
West – Ball St, C. Michigan, E. Michigan, N. Illinois, Toledo, W. Kentucky, W. Michigan


Sunbelt - Teams play the 7 in their division and 2 from the other division every year. Title game is between the two division winners.

East - Appalachian St, Charlotte, FIU, Georgia Southern, Georgia St, Old Dominion, S. Alabama,Troy
West - Arkansas St, Idaho, Lou-Lafayette, Lou-Monroe, New Mexico St, Texas St, Utah St, UTSA


Independents – Army, Liberty, Navy

Notes: After everyone mocked the Big 10 matrix system (especially the POD names) they decided to go with the a simple and neat solution, though at the expense of some rivalries and only playing the other division teams once every four years. This started the trend of 2-8 team divisions instead of possible 4-4 team divisions. The SEC got talked into having a 9 game conference schedule so the other major conferences wouldn't shame them (they're still going to be playing Sunbelt schools in November however).

This TL saw Texas cling to it's network to the bitter end (driving half the conference away), but they finally had to give it up when it wasn't making money for ESPN but also the Big 8's status as a major conference was starting to be in danger. (The network isn't making ESPN money OTL either but the Big 12 is in much better shape than TTL's Big 8).

The PAC took Iowa St over Kansas St because Iowa St is an AAU member and that made it easier for the PAC university presidents to accept the expansion.

Talks from the four remaining Big 8 members to form a conference with the best Mt. West and Conference USA schools in order to make a fifth major conference, or likely failing that to at least dominant the non-AQ spot so that they almost were, failed due to disagreement between the Mt. West and Conference USA schools over who would get in. The Big 8 leftovers joined the Mt. West along with BYU and 3 WAC schools in order to get to 16. They are expected to be the best non-AQ conference but Conference USA will be competitive for that playoff spot.

Conference USA loaded up on Sun Belt schools to get to 16, and the Sun Belt welcomed a wave of new 1-A schools to replace them, along with the remains of the WAC.

I just intend to make one more post next week about how the 2018 season goes.

 

[Jasen777]

2013-4 Season BCS Bowls

autobid teams in italics, non-AQ rep in blue

Rose Bowl: (3) Michigan St over (7) Stanford, 24-20
Cotton Bowl: (2) Louisville over (9) Ohio St, 34-24
Fiesta Bowl: (10) Oregon over (8) Baylor, 48-31
Sugar Bowl: (1) Florida St over (16) UFC, 41-21
Orange Bowl: (4) Auburn over (6) Clemson, 30-21

Title Game: Florida St over Louisville 37-17

Gripes: Florida St getting a “bye” to the title game (it was Sugar's turn to get last pick and they got stuck with UFC), #5 one loss Alabama left out of major bowl (2 per conference rule).


2014-5 Season BCS Bowls

Rose Bowl: (3) Ohio St over (2) Oregon, 42-20
Cotton Bowl: (4) Florida St over (22) Cincinnati, 34-13
Fiesta Bowl: (7) Michigan St over (5) Baylor, 42-41
Sugar Bowl: (6) TCU over (1) Alabama, 31-17
Orange Bowl: (8) Clemson over (16) Boise St, 37-21

Title Game: Ohio St over Florida St, 41-24

Gripes: Weakness of Big East as Cincinnati lost 3 games, all out of conference, Florida St getting in the title game over Alabama despite both with one loss and Alabama having beaten them in the SEC championship game and/or 1 loss TCU getting left out after knocking off Alabama


2015-6 Season BCS Bowls

Rose Bowl: (6) Stanford over (3) Oklahoma, 45-27
Cotton Bowl: (16) Houston over (19) Pittsburgh, 41-17
Fiesta Bowl: (7) Oklahoma St over (9) Notre Dame, 28-27
Sugar Bowl: (2) Alabama over (4) Michigan St, 38-0
Orange Bowl: (1) Clemson over (8) TCU, 34-24

Title Game: Alabama over Clemson, 45-40

Gripes: (5) Ohio St left out of major bowl, Big East being embarrassing


2016-7 Season BCS Bowls

Rose Bowl: (5) Penn St. over (4) Washington, 38-27
Cotton Bowl: (12) Florida St over (6) West Virginia, 27-17
Fiesta Bowl: (14) Oklahoma St over (15) Western Michigan, 41-27
Sugar Bowl: (1) Alabama over (2) Ohio St, 24-10
Orange Bowl: (3) Clemson over (7) USC, 31-24

Title Game: Clemson over Alabama 35-31

Gripes: A 1 vs. 2 matchup before the final, BIG schools getting left out due to 2 school limit


2017-8 Season BCS Bowls

Rose Bowl: (1) Oklahoma over (8) USC, 45-31
Cotton Bowl: (15) Notre Dame over (11) USF, 34-21
Fiesta Bowl: (5) Wisconsin over (10) TCU, 24-17
Sugar Bowl: (3) Georgia over (12) UCF, 41-40
Orange Bowl: (4) Alabama over (2) Clemson, 24-6

Title Game: Georgia over Oklahoma, 54-48 2OT

Gripes: (15) Notre Dame being picked when the selection pool was forced to go to 16 due to there being too many high ranked BIG and SEC schools (and also them being picked over Miami and Washington). Alabama didn't like getting left out of the title game. But a pretty good year and a classic title game for the unseeded plus in it's last year before the playoff and the new conference alignments.

 

[Jasen777]

2018-19

Big 10 – Oklahoma and Ohio St won their respective divisions, each dropping a single conference game they really shouldn't have to go 11-1 (8-1). In a shoot out of a tile game derided for the lack of defense by those outside the BIG, OU won 51-47.

PAC 16 – Washington 9-3 (7-2) took the Western Division in the Apple Cup game via tie breaker with a win over Washington St 10-2 (7-2). In the Eastern Division, Texas 9-3 (7-2) won with the key victory being over Utah 9-3 (6-3). Washington won the title game 27-24.

Seaboard – Clemson swept through the Atlantic division, continuing it's dominance over the ACC since Florida St took off for the SEC. West Virginia's win over Syracuse gave them the Eastern division, both at 10-2 (7-2) they were replaced by Notre Dame 12-0 (5-0) in the Seaboard Championship game due to the Seaboard's unique arrangement. Clemson would prevail 34-24.

SEC – West winner Alabama 12-0 (9-0), defeated East winner Georgia 11-1 (8-1) in the championship game 35-28.

Non-AQ spot – Boise St 10-2 (8-1) beat TCU 9-3 (7-2) in the Mt. West title game, and Utah St dominated in it's first year in the Sun Belt, but the non-AQ spot in the playoffs would go to undefeated Conference USA champion UCF.


Final Playoff Composite Poll

1. Alabama 13-0, SEC Champ
2. Clemson 13-0, Seaboard Champ
3. Oklahoma 12-1, Big 10 Champ
4. Notre Dame 12-1, Seaboard affiliate
5. UCF, 13-0, Conference USA
6. Georgia 11-2, SEC
7. Ohio St 11-2, Big 10
8. Kentucky 10-2, SEC
9. West Virginia 10-2, Seaboard
10. Michigan 9-3, Big 10
11. Washington 10-3, PAC 16
12. Washington St 10-2, PAC 16
13. Syracuse 10-2, Seaboard
14. Florida 9-3, SEC
15. Missouri 9-3, Big 10
16. LSU 9-3, SEC
17. Utah St 12-1, Sun Belt Champ
18. Boise St 11-2, Mt. West champ
19. Mississippi St 9-3, SEC
20. Fresno St 10-2, Mt. West
21. Army 9-2, Independent
22. Texas 9-4, PAC 16
23. Utah 9-3, PAC 16
24. N.C. St. 9-3, Seaboard
25. Cincinnati 9-3, Seaboard


Playoff

So for the playoffs I used some power ratings and a random number generator, after which I footballtized the score a bit. The only real (minor) upset is the final. There was little controversy over the 8 teams to include, though some questioned why Washington was getting a home game in the first round even though the system was set up deliberately set up that way. Alabama obviously choose Atlanta over Indianapolis for their semi-final location. There was disappointment that most of the conference champions games were anti-climatic as 3 of the 4 AQ conference losers still made the playoffs (though the repercussions were still pretty big for Ohio St and Georgia).