For Want of a Completion (a college football TL)

Reader mode
2006-7
  • Index
    • Jasen777

    Jasen777

    Donor
    The Rose Bowl, Pasadena California, Dec. 3rd, 2006

    2nd ranked USC had come into the game a large favorite over 6-5 UCLA. But it was an unexpectedly close game early as Bruin QB Patrick Cowan surprised the Tojans with several key runs, including a TD in the first quarter. Meanwhile USC's offensive struggled against a surprisingly effective UCLA defensive. However USC finally managed to reach the end zone on a drive right before half time (their only score at the point other than a safety) and took the lead 9-7.

    After forcing a poor USC punt on the first drive in the 2nd half, UCLA faced a key 3rd down and 9 on USC's 28. Cowan was flushed from the pocket by the USC rush, keeping his eyes down field he looked for a receiver, but as he threw his plant foot slipped a little, and the pass sailed to the right of receiver Marcus Everett who was unable to make the catch. On the next play the 45 yard field goal attempt went wide right.

    On the ensuing drive USC managed a field goal to go up 12-7. Feeling the pressure now that they needed a touchdown to regain the lead, Cowan made a poor decision, throwing into double coverage. The pass was deflected and fell to linebacker Brian Cushing who took the interception back for a touchdown. Normality restored, USC went on to win the game 25-7 and clinch their spot in the the BCS title game against Ohio St.


    2006-7 College Football Season

    BCS Bowl Games (final BCS ranking):

    Title Game: (2) USC over (1) Ohio St: 37-24
    Fiesta Bowl: (6) Louisville over (10) Oklahoma: 37-34
    Orange Bowl: (5) LSU over (14) Wake Forest: 24-10
    Rose Bowl: (8) Boise St over (4) Michigan: 34-30
    Sugar Bowl: (3) Florida over (11) Notre Dame: 34-9


    Notes: In OTL, UCLA completed the pass and made a field goal on the drive. They held on to win when USC's final drive was ended with a deflection interception. With USC's fall Florida moved up to #2. This was somewhat controversial as they passed Michigan after championship week when Michigan was idle and Michigan's only loss had come by 3 points at undisputed number one Ohio St, but pollsters choose a new matchup over the rematch. Florida won the title game.

    The OTL Boise St / Oklahoma classic was butterflied due to USC's promotion to the title game and the Rose Bowl's obligation to take an eligible non-AQ school in that scenario, but here they catch Michigan off guard.
     
  • Index
    • 2007-8
  • Index
    • Jasen777

    Jasen777

    Donor
    2007 College Football Preview: Can Anyone Stop USC?

    By: Emma Righther

    In the last 3 seasons only Vince Young has stopped Pete Carroll's Trojans. Winners of 2 of the last 3 titles, the other year losing in the title game thanks to the previously mentioned Vince Young, the world of college football is bracing for more of the same this season.

    USC is the near unanimous choice for preseason number 1, and for good reason. Senior quarterback John David Booty has forgone the draft to return for another run with an offense that has lost only a few players and has been reloaded with perhaps even greater talent in their place. The defense promises to be their best yet, with 10 returning starters from last year's team.

    Indeed, USC's true might not be their 2007 opponents, but history. As Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh said, “They may be the best team in the history of college football,” or as new Arizona St. coach Dennis Erickson put it, “They should be in the league I was really successful in, the National football league.”

    There will be other good teams besides USC this season, but they all have serious flaws. Florida wonder freshmen Tim Tebow returns to now lead the Gators full time, but 9 defensive starters do not. Louisville has lost coach Petrino to the NFL. West Virginia should have a very potent offense, but they don't have the sheer athleticism on defensive to be a truly elite team, at least not on the level of an USC. Both Ohio St and LSU are losing star QBs, and Oklahoma has lost their QB as well, though Thompson wasn't a star. Texas and Virginia Tech are probably a year away from being legitimate threats.

    I should probably just practice now. “Fight On!”



    Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge Louisiana, Oct. 20th, 2007

    A week after their devastating 3 overtime lost at Kentucky, LSU (which had fallen from 1st to 5th in the coach's poll) returned home to 18th ranked Auburn. Auburn served notice they came to play by scoring a touchdown on the opening drive. Their offense struggled against LSU's defense for most of the rest of the game, but 2 LSU turnovers kept them close and quarterback Brandon Cox got hot late and lead Auburn on a touchdown drive to go back ahead 24-23 with only 3 minutes left in the game.

    Quarterback Matt Flynn lead LSU down the field until the reached the Auburn 22 yard line with 39 seconds left and the clock running. With LSU facing a 3rd down and 9 neither coach decide to stop the clock and LSU didn't snap until 7 seconds were left. The prudent play would have been a quick pass to the sideline to give Colt Davis (3 for 3 on FGs on the day) a shorter kick for the win. But Flynn took a 3 step drop and homed on in wideout Demetrius Byrd who ran a corner pattern to the back of the end zone. Flynn launch a well aimed throw but Auburn corner Pat Lee recovered and stuck his hand in at the last second, the ball popping up as both players crashed to the ground. Byrd managed to come up with the ball from his back, making a highlight reel catch. But his was out of bounds and the clock had expired. LSU had lost.


    Final Week Chaos

    2007 was the Year of the Upset. Most remembered for Appalachian St winning at The Big House and USC losing to Stanford as a 42 point favorite, it did not disappoint in it's final regular season week. BCS ranked #1 Missouri lost the Big 12 Championship game to #8 Oklahoma, though it technically wasn't an upset since OU was favored. And shockingly #2 West Virginia lost to a Pittsburgh team that was just 4-7 entering the game.

    #3 Ohio St, which had been idle, the Big 10 not having a title game, was a sure bet to move to #1 in at least the voting polls and thus was near certain to make the title game. Besides being the Big 10 champ, they were the only major conference team to finish the season with 1 loss, besides of course #5 Kansas, who had missed the Big 12 title game due to losing to Missouri and to whom the voters had never afforded the respect that most major conference schools with their record would get.

    #4 Georgia had also been idle, due to missing the SEC title game on the head to head tiebreaker with Tennessee. #6 Virginia Tech had avenged an earlier loss to Boston College, winning the ACC championship. #7 USC had been idle (the PAC 10 also not having a title game), and of course #8 Oklahoma had won the Big 12 title game over #1 Missouri.

    Most expected either Georgia to move up to #2 and play for the title despite not even playing for their conference title, or for OU to make the jump based on their win over Missouri, or even somehow for defending champion USC to get back to the title game and rematch with Ohio St. But the final BCS rankings shook the college football world and beyond.

    zzz.png



    Despite Oklahoma placing 2nd in both the Coaches poll and the Harris Interactive poll, the 2 voting polls used in the BCS formula, and USC and Georgia splitting 3rd and 4th in those polls, 2nd in the BCS standings, and the title game spot, went to Virginia Tech. Tech had placed 5th in both of the voting polls but 1st in the computer polls, and with the BCS rankings based on the percentage of points possible from a poll/group of polls, Virginia Tech had pulled the 2nd spot out over Oklahoma in such a close result that reporters were left looking up what to call numbers that were 3 spots after the period.

    Outrage was strong and immediate. Oklahoma fans of course felt the most robbed. But Georgia and USC supporters both felt that they should have been ranked ahead of the other and that Oklahoma as well shouldn't have passed them in the last week. Additionally USC fans wondered how Missouri and Kansas were ahead of them. Ironically the BCS's decision to move from using percent of points possible instead of the mere rank due to previous controversies had really came back to haunt them.

    The most hatred though was saved for the computer polls. This only intensified when Jeff Sagarin (the creator of one of the computer polls used in the BCS average) gave an interview in which he insisted that the computer polls weren't to blame. “Virginia Tech is only #1 in the version of my rankings the BCS uses, the one where they don't allow us to consider margin of victory. In my most accurate rankings, Virginia Tech is 5th.”

    Another issue arouse over the fact that the formulas that determined the “computer” polls were secret. Noticing this, conspiracies theories abounded that someone could have paid off one of the computer poll creators to to rank Virginia Tech higher (or Oklahoma lower), as a difference of one spot in one of the polls could have altered the outcome. The most distasteful theory was that “someone” had rigged it to get Virginia Tech into the title game to bring more attention to the mass shooting that had occurred on their campus earlier in the year...


    2007-8 College Football Major Bowls

    National Champion: Ohio St.

    Title Game: (1) Ohio St over (2) Virginia Tech: 17-13

    Fiesta Bowl: (9) West Virginia over (3) Oklahoma: 48-28
    Orange Bowl: (6) Kansas over (4) Georgia: 28-27
    Rose Bowl: (7) USC over (13) Illinois: 49-17
    Sugar Bowl: (12) Tennessee over (10) Hawaii: 27-14


    Notes:

    OTL Auburn's DB didn't quite get there in time and Byrd made a nice catch to win the game for LSU, who despite a loss to Arkansas later, managed to back into the title game, which they won. The BCS controversy at the end is my best guess at what the rankings would have been with LSU not pulling out the Auburn game. BCS controversy wasn't what I was/am going for but I walked right into a humdinger. (Has anyone guessed what I am going for)?

    The Rose (due to them wanting a PAC/BIG matchup) and the Fiesta (luck) here are OTL matchups with those scores, though one could certainly argue they'd be different due to the different psychology in play. I gave Tennessee the win over Auburn in the alt SEC title game.
     
  • Index

    • Nivek

    Nice year, so they will moved of the computer and kickstart CFP earlier thanks to this?, nice update
     

    OriiGiins

    Ohio State making back to back title games? Blasphemy as OTL! All seriousness, pretty good start and enjoying it so far. Keep up the work!
     
    Last edited:
    2008 Off-Season
  • Index
    • Jasen777

    Jasen777

    Donor
    BCS Formula Change

    At the 2008 meetings the powers that be in college football had much to discuss. First was the BCS rankings controversy, which hadn't faded with Virginia Tech putting up a good fight in the title game and Oklahoma's and Georgia's losses in the bowl games.

    The BCS rankings had started, a bit experimentally, as a way to rank teams that didn't rely overly much upon subjective opinion. The voting polls were included, but so were (to various extents and not all at the same time) computer rankings, strength of schedule, quality win bonuses, and loss penalties. From an analytic mindset there were issues, for instance the strength of schedule metric used (opponents' record and opponents' opponents' record) wasn't the best and the weight it was given in the overall ranking was rather arbitrary.

    But those sort of issues drew little interest from the common fan and from the press. The controversies arose whenever a team got into the title game that wasn't in the top 2 in the voting polls, despite the fact that the BCS formula was never supposed to be a simple rubber stamp of the polls. After USC in 2003 fell to 3rd in the BCS despite being first in the voting polls (and ultimately leading to a split title), the BCS formula was drastically overhauled to include only the 2 voting polls (which increased in importance to 2/3 of the overall ranking) and the computer polls. The 2007 controversy, which saw Virginia Tech 5th in the voting polls but 2nd in the BCS rankings, was the final straw for the attempt to provide a measure of objectivity in the rankings (and it would come back to haunt them in short fashion). Going forward the BCS would be a simple average of the Harris Poll and the Coaches' Poll, and by rank, not by percentage of points possible. The computer polls, which would still not be allowed to consider margin of victory, would be used only as a tiebreaker.


    Unseeded Plus One

    That was the easy part of the off-season meetings however. The BSC TV deals (with the exception of the Rose Bowl) were set to expire after the '09-'10 season and negotiations for a new deal would be starting soon. However they first had to consider what they would be offering TV. There was some support among fans for a playoff, but very little among the conference commissioners and school presidents and athletic directors. Even SEC commissioner Mike Slive, whose plan would amount to a back door mini-playoff, resolutely avoided using the “p-word”.

    Slive's plan was termed the “Plus One”, specifically a seeded plus one. The plan was to add a 5th bowl to the 4 BCS bowl games, and have 2 of them match up the top 4 teams in the BCS rankings (1 vs. 4, and 2 vs. 3) and then play the title game from the winner of those 2 bowls. Slive's plan, perhaps put forth due to the SEC getting left out of the title game the last 4 years, was a bold plan. Too bold for most, as it drew only cautious support from the ACC, indifference from the smaller conferences, disapproval from the Big 12 and Big East which didn't want to risk the bowl setup, and complete rejection from the Big 10 and the Pac 10. Big 10 commissioner Jim Delaney was the spokesperson for the anti-playoff position and perhaps rightly, saw this plan as a playoff that would eventually grow and overturn the Bowl system. It also meant the Rose Bowl would lose out on it's Big/Pac matchup even more often.

    It appeared the status quo would triumph when Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe proposed the unseeded plus one plan. It would also add another bowl to the BCS lineup. However, the 5 bowls would retain their conference affiliations all the time. The BCS would then release a final poll after the bowl games, after which the top 2 would then play in the title game. Thus more than just the top 2 teams after the regular season would still have a chance to be in the title game, such as Oklahoma, Georgia, and USC last season. Slive objected that selecting 2 teams after the bowls might not be easier than selecting 2 before the bowls, but Delaney liked the plan a lot as it avoided the semblance of the p-word and guaranteed the Rose Bowl could always have their Big 10 champion vs. Pac 10 champion matchup. With the Big 10 and Pac 10 on board, and the Big East once the Cotton Bowl was added with the stipulation that their tie-in would be the Big East champion, the smaller conferences were then brought in line and the unseeded plus one was adopted, to start with the new TV deal for the 2010-11 season.

    If one squinted you could call it a playoff – one with 5 semi-finals for 2 spots in the final. A mess only college football could come up with.


    Future BCS Structure:

    National Title Game – as another money grab, the title game host wouldn't necessarily be at one of the BCS game sites, but would be put out for bid, similar to the Super Bowl. Though the first would be held at the to be complete Cowboys Stadium as part of the deal for the Cotton Bowl moving there, becoming a BCS bowl and accepting the Big East champion as their tie-in.

    Bowls and tie-ins

    Rose Bowl: Pac 10 champion vs. Big 10 champion

    Cotton Bowl: Big East champion vs. at-large

    Fiesta Bowl: Big 12 champion vs. at-large

    Sugar Bowl: SEC champion vs. at-large

    Orange Bowl: ACC champion vs. at-large

    At-large criteria – selection pool qualifiers in order of precedent, limit of 2 schools from a conference enforced – pool size minimum of 4

    A. Top non-AQ conference champ if in top 12
    B. Notre Dame if in top 10
    C. Schools ranked 1 and 2 if not AQ champ or (AB)
    D. Schools ranked 3 and 4 if not AQ champ or (ABC)
    E. Top non-AQ conference champion if top 16, if not (CD) and (A) not used
    F. Other schools in top 12, not (A-E)
    G. Top non-AQ conference champ if in top 20 and not (CDF) and (AE) not used.
    H. Other schools in top 16, not (A-G)
    I. Other schools in top 20, not (A-H)
    J. Top non-AQ conference champ if in top 25 and not (CDFHI) and (AEG) not used.
    K. Other schools in top 25, not (A-J)


    Notes: To his credit Slive did introduce the seeded plus one plan in 2008 despite in OTL the BCS working out very well for the SEC. It was shot down but is essentially the system we have now after ESPN gobbled up all the TV rights and pushed for it and complaints about SEC dominance and especially the LSU/Alabama rematch that left out 1-loss conference champion OSU (with the exception of having a committee instead of the BCS rankings and calling it a playoff). The unseeded plan was kicked around but was never adopted.
     
  • Index

    • DTF955Baseballfan

    Nice idea. Yes that 2007 season was crazy. I remember at the end one of the broadcasters saying that the committee should just act as if the last two weeks never happened because it was as if 7 top teams at all lost or something so they were back to where they had been before. Also, go Buckeyes.
     
    2008-9
  • Index
    • Jasen777

    Jasen777

    Donor
    Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Nov. 8th, 2008

    High ranking teams do not simply walk into Kinnick stadium and emerge victorious. The visitor's locker room, and everything in it, is painted a pacifying pink (though a recent stadium upgrade has seen that the hot water is more reliable at least). The hostile fans are powered by AC/DC and beer that had to be smuggled into the “dry” stadium. Perhaps more importantly, Iowa had a solid defense, a dogged running game, and a tendency to play down or up to the competition that could keep them in any game, especially at home (their 4 losses by a combined total of 12 points). So when #3 Penn St traveled to play 5-4 Iowa, the result was far from given.

    True to form, Iowa's defense and a workhorse performance from running back Shonn Greene (28 carries, 117 yards, 2 TD's) kept them in the game, just down 21-23, with the ball and one last chance to win it. But on a crucial 3rd down and 6 at Penn St's 25, the ball slipped from QB Richard Stanzi's hand as he dropped back to pass, Iowa recovered, but was forced to attempt a 45 yard field goal to win the game. When the hurried attempt by the back up kicker sailed wide right, Penn St had survived Kinnick Stadium.


    Big 12 South and BCS Controversies

    A great regular season in the Big 12 saw the South division end in a 3 way tie with Texas, OU, and Texas Tech all finished with identical 11-1 (7-1) records. Texas had bested OU 45-35 in the Red River Shootout on Oct, 11th, Tech defeated Texas in dramatic fashion in Lubbock 39-33 Nov. 1st, and OU had shredded Tech in Norman 65-22 on Nov. 22nd. The Big 12 tie breaking procedures, to see who would represent the South in the conference championship game, were inadequate for the task and defaulted to final tie-breaker: whoever was ranked higher in the BCS standings.

    Voters were aware of this heading into the final week of the regular season in which all 3 teams won. Perhaps due to Mac Brown's public plea that they should be ranked ahead of OU since they beat them on the field (WHICH WAS A REALLY STUPID ARGUMENT SINCE IT WAS A 3-WAY TIE AND BY THE SAME MEASURE TECH SHOULD BE RANKED AHEAD OF UT), the final week saw Texas move back ahead of OU in the Harris poll to #5 (OU had passed them after UT's loss to Texas Tech). In the Coaches' poll Texas made up a lot of ground, but fell one point short of OU to #4, meaning if even one voter had switched Texas ahead of OU on the ballot Texas would have been ahead of OU in both polls and had gone to the Big 12 title game (or if one had moved UT up a spot or OU down a spot from their submitted ballot, the schools would be tied and UT would be ahead in the BCS). Texas Tech, which had lost last and worst and didn't have the same brand power, was at #9 in both polls.

    Since the BCS took the polls by rank instead of percentage of points possible beginning in this season, the computers broke the tie and decided in favor of Oklahoma. The complaints from Austin were loud indeed. The 1 point difference in the coaches poll wouldn't have mattered as much in the systems used before this season, as OU's lead in the computer polls was enough to overcome Texas' lead in the Harris poll and a hypothetical Texas lead in the Coaches' poll. But in the new system that single point was everything. The “it was decided on the field” argument was silly, but there were some very valid complaints about the Coaches' poll. Brown alleged that coaches with connections to Stoops voted Texas lower on purpose to keep them out of the Conference championship, and perhaps that Stoops was more popular nationally and that that played a factor. And indeed Kansas coach Mangino and Texas Tech's coach Mike Leech, both who coached under Stoops, voted OU ahead of Texas with several teams in between, which was somewhat questionable, but not indefensible. Mangino refused questions on the issue, but Leech was open on the subject. “We beat Texas. OU kicked our asses. So obviously I put OU ahead of us, and then I put us, and then I put Florida (who was also 11-1) and USC (10-1) because they've both had great seasons, and then I put that school in Austin. Seemed fair. Maybe I should have had Utah (12-0) and Boise (12-0) higher. I don't know”.

    That wasn't the worst from the Coaches' poll however. Although it was the worst kept secret in sports that many coaches didn't actually fill out “their” ballots, Baylor coach Art Briles' comments ignited a fire storm. When a reporter asked him why he had OU 3rd and Texas 7th, he answered, “Well I didn't. Look, I never lie. I didn't vote, I passed the ballot along to the sports information director, presumably he voted.” Texas fans were outraged and fans around the country could no longer ignore the issue of coaches not actually voting in the coaches' poll. Texas president, William Powers Jr, called for Briles' vote to be tossed out due to his confession and for the poll to be recalculated, which would put Texas in the Big 12 title game instead of OU. But there was no procedure to do so and, of course, it was a certainty that many of the votes that placed Texas ahead of OU weren't from actual coaches either.

    In any case, it was Oklahoma that went to the Big 12 title game and beat #20 Missouri. And then the expected title game between undefeateds Penn St. and Alabama was derailed by Florida's win over Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Florida had already been ahead of Oklahoma (and Texas) in the Harris poll, and expected the win would over #1 Alabama would propel them over Oklahoma, who had only beaten #20 Missouri and whose selection for their conference title game was controversial. But they fell short in the coaching poll. By one point. And with the polls split, the computers once again choose Oklahoma, and so they finished 2nd in the BCS and would face Penn St in the title game. Florida fans were upset of course, and SEC fans in general were as their champion kept getting left out of the title game, in part because of the strength of their conference. Alabama coach Nick Saban was particularly irate, noting that if the SEC didn't have a championship game, like the Big 10 didn't, that they would be in the title game, and that everyone should have to play by the same rules. Undefeated Utah and Boise St were not particularly moved by this argument. Some pointed out that this situation would be better resolved with the new plus one plan that would start in 2 years, but of course that was not certain as the bowl matchps would have been different.

    And when Penn St's defense proved no match for Sam Bradford and Oklahoma's offense in OU's 47-24 win the controversy got even stronger. OU won the BCS trophy and on the basis of finishing first in the Coaches' poll (who by contract were required to vote the title game winner at #1) won that share of the national title. Florida had entered the bowls at #2 in the AP poll, which determined the other half of the most recognized title awarders. After Penn St's loss they had hoped to get a share of the title via the AP poll as USC had done in 2003-4 when LSU defeated Oklahoma in the BCS title game. But it wasn't to be as Oklahoma's high octane win over undefeated Penn St moved them pass Florida who had a tougher than expected contest with a like under regarded Utah.


    2008-9 College Football Major Bowls

    Title Game: (2) Oklahoma over (1) Penn St. 47-24

    Fiesta Bowl: (4) Texas over (6) Alabama 27-21
    Orange Bowl: (19) Virginia Tech over (12) Cincinnati 20-7
    Rose Bowl: (5) USC over (10) Ohio St. 34-17
    Sugar Bowl: (3) Florida over (7) Utah 31-28


    Notes: OTL Stanzi passed for a first down on the play and they were able to attempt a shorter field goal, which they made. With the loss Penn St didn't make the title game, and Florida won the title over Oklahoma.



    Next time: Delaney drops the R bomb.
     
  • Index
    • Jasen777

    Jasen777

    Donor
    AltSptHst said:
    OU may have won that, but 47-24? I don't know about that. I know that Penn St. got whooped by USC, but the Trojans were better than OU (they may have been the most talented team that year).
    Click to expand...

    It might be unfair, but anything can happen in one game, (maybe luck evening out from them getting a win in Iowa?). I felt bad enough getting them to another title game before the Sandusky scandal goes mainstream, so I had them lose it big. USC may have been the most talented in terms of pro talent and was really good, but I think Florida might have been the best that year.
     

    Zheng He

    AltSptHst said:
    OU may have won that, but 47-24? I don't know about that. I know that Penn St. got whooped by USC, but the Trojans were better than OU (they may have been the most talented team that year).
    Click to expand...

    It’s Karma now that we know what was going on at Penn State.
     
    Reader mode
    You must log in or register to reply here.
    Top
    Top