For Want of a Bigger Gun: The Naval Arms race

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Here is what I was thinking. Modify the Channel scenario so that you have very low visibility (not that hard) and have the British think that something bigger is going on.

Or.

Lets say the Germans do try to "run the gauntlet" with capitol ships. When would they meet the British ships? If the Germans knew what was coming they might be able to survive, but if they are in the channel that only gives them about 50 miles in which to operate. How would a German fleet cope with that and how would the British fleet be equipped for such a confrontation.

And another question: How would the land war be going during these early days of the war?


Easy. German fleet dies, nearly all of it. British lose about 12 pre-dreads and maybe one dread out of the 11 engaged (probably a BC). The RN has, in Home Waters, a better than 2-1 advantage in platforms and closer to a 3-1 advantage in throw weight. The Germans are cut off from retreat, which is all that saved them at Jutland, despite the horrific performance of the BC on that day.

The land war doesn't exist in any meaningful way, not in this scenario. Armies of the era had to mobilize, a process that took at least a couple of weeks before they could make any sort of serious broad front assault. You have to somehow get France to start a land war with Germany TWO WEEKS before the "surprise" encounter in the Channel.

The unbderlying problem here is that NOBODY is going to help the Germans. Nobody.

WW I happened by mistake, mostly because Germany was the cheerleader for a creaky empire that was trying to look tough in the face of a second creaky empire. That isn't the case here. Germany was cruising for a beating in the early 1900's (call it feeling their oats, or ego, or whatever you like, they were like a 17 year old kid, all balls & no brains), and if the British kicked the snot out of them there would have been general approval.

Germany couldn't get at the UK except by sea, the UK had no desire to get involved on the European mainland where Germany was strong on the ground.

There was going to be a massive land war in Europe, no question about that, but the chances of it starting with the High Seas Fleet taking a hiding are vanishingly small.
 
But here is what I am wondering. How (if we can) can get America and Germany's relations to a point where they would support one another in a conflict? It would obviously have to be before 1912 because Wilson was very pro-British.

Apparently, at least according to David Fromkin's recent book The King and the Cowboy Theodore Roosevelt wanted to resolve differences with Britain since he considered Germany to be a threat to world peace. It appears that Edward VII and Roosevelt worked in concert to support France.
 

MrP

Banned
Apparently, at least according to David Fromkin's recent book The King and the Cowboy Theodore Roosevelt wanted to resolve differences with Britain since he considered Germany to be a threat to world peace. It appears that Edward VII and Roosevelt worked in concert to support France.

I've also picked up the idea - though I can't say whence (help appreciated) - that Teddy was very gung-ho and anti-German. Have we had a WWI TL with America under Teddy in from the get-go?
 
I think we need a drastically different American President. Could we create someone? Just take a little bit of poetic license? It seems like it is the only way it can work.

Just have the guy be the son of immigrants. Then gain a crapload of public support, then have him preach about how the new nations (Germany and the US) have to unite against the old order (whoops, sounding a bit socialist now am I). Anyway have him forge an alliance with the Kaiser and when Britain and Germany go to war then America joins in. Or is that ASB?
 

MrP

Banned
I think we need a drastically different American President. Could we create someone? Just take a little bit of poetic license? It seems like it is the only way it can work.

Just have the guy be the son of immigrants. Then gain a crapload of public support, then have him preach about how the new nations (Germany and the US) have to unite against the old order (whoops, sounding a bit socialist now am I). Anyway have him forge an alliance with the Kaiser and when Britain and Germany go to war then America joins in. Or is that ASB?

The thing with that is that if you do that - and I don't doubt that with enough poking, prodding and fiddling, you can - all of the naval resources in the thread (except vessel names, which may remain the same) are likely to be irrelevant. For instance, a strongly pro-German America will build more ships. Britain will respond by building more ships and either warily avoiding anything to link her to France/Russia, or leap into bed with them in realisation that war with TTL's America would be a mess and a half.
 
I think we need a drastically different American President. Could we create someone? Just take a little bit of poetic license? It seems like it is the only way it can work.

Just have the guy be the son of immigrants. Then gain a crapload of public support, then have him preach about how the new nations (Germany and the US) have to unite against the old order (whoops, sounding a bit socialist now am I). Anyway have him forge an alliance with the Kaiser and when Britain and Germany go to war then America joins in. Or is that ASB?

Doesn't sound like ASB, but it does sound like beating a deceased equine to death. Maybe even a little Turtledovish.
 
In order to ally Germany and the United States, you need several things to happen:
  1. Germany needs to see the United States as worth allying with. The US had an extremely small standing army and a navy that lagged European great powers significantly, and conventional wisdom at the time (especially within Germany) greatly overestimated the difficulty of recruiting and training a large army. Recall that Germany c. 1900 had a warplan for invading and occupying several large cities on the Eastern seaboard of the US to force an American surrender in the event of war between the two countries; it's completely ASB in hindsight, but it speaks volumes that the Germans considered it viable at the time. If Germany continues viewing the US as a weak second-rate power, they won't waste their time cultivating an alliance.
  2. Germany would need to reconsider their diplomatic mindset about alliances. Before the Entente, there were serious talks between Germany and Britain about forming an alliance. Part of why the talks fell through were that Germany insisted on a formal alliance modelled on their alliance with Austria which spelled out in detail exactly how each country was obligated to help the other under what circumstances, and the British government was very uncomfortable about promising in advance to declare war in circumstances that left them no leeway to judge the justice of their ally's position. That model of alliance works for appealing to the self-interest of an imperial goverment (such as Austria or Russia), but it goes against the character of a country with strong democratic idealist traditions. Alliance talks with America would run into similar problems.
  3. America would need to feel a requirement for a European ally. To this point, the US had a very strong tradition against "entangling alliances", and it'd take a serious perceived threat to break that. IOTL, it took the Zimmerman telegram and two rounds of unrestricted submarine warfare to trigger American intervention in WWI.
  4. America and Germany would both need to perceive a common interest that made them natural allies. There was a legitimate interest connecting the two countries -- both came late to the pursuit of overseas colonies, which put open-door policies firmly in both-country's interests -- but both countries would need to see that common interest as a worthy centerpiece for their foreign policy.
There were some encouraging steps towards point 4 IOTL in the First Moroccan Crisis, where Roosevelt strongly supported the German position of continued Moroccan independence under an open-door policy, but I don't think the other three points ever came close to happening. You'd need all four to get early American intervention on the German side of an ATL WWI.
 
Doesn't sound like ASB, but it does sound like beating a deceased equine to death. Maybe even a little Turtledovish.

That's what I thought... Then we need to find another pro-German presidential candidate. Or at least give them both similar colonial interests. But how, HOW! Does anyone have any idea about that? What about early Japanese aggression? The Americans would feel threatened by that certainly, and they were already making plans for a war against the Japanese at this time. What if the Japanese attacked China early and other south Pacific islands, then the Americans would feel threatened. And if this is after the Germans and British went to war then America and Germany would become allies, even if they were cold allies.

It sounds a little ASB but I'm sure that we can flesh it out more.
 
Top