For Want of a Bigger Gun: The Naval Arms race

[Thucydides]

This is a nice link if you are not familiar with the history of the Arms Race.

What if the great naval powers in 1910 (Britain, US, Germany and Japan) started a war over each others navies. Britain was aligned with Japan against Germany and the US was neutral. What if these powers race for control of the oceans escalated into conflict. Lets say there was an accident and because of which Germany and Britain go to war. When Japan mobilizes the US gets scared because of their movement near the Philipennes and goes to war. The thing with the US might be a little unlikely but then it would start world war one early, Austria would move to cease Malta. France would move against Germany just for the Hell of it and it would all go to pieces.

What do you think?

 

[Maniakes]

A war between Germany and Britain triggered by the combination of arms race tensions and an accidental shooting incident would be plausible if you set up the right opportunit -- Britain almost intervened in the Russo-Japanese war over a similar accidental shooting incident, and tension were running very high with Germany by 1910. Japanese involvement would also be plausible, but immediate US involvement is ASB. IOTL, Japan was involved from the beginning of the war against German colonies in the Pacific without the US batting an eyelash. With Britain as allies, Japan has secure supply lines through British colonies in the region (Hong Kong, etc) without needing to go anywhere near US possessions. If you want US involvement, it'd need to come the same way it did IOTL, with a slow buildup of tensions over US demands for freedom of the seas.

 

[David S Poepoe]

Interesting site, I'll have to take a closer look at it.

Its rather unlikely that the Austro-Hungarian Fleet will leave the Adriatic to assault Malta. The position of Italy has to resolved first and the distance doesn't bode well for Austrian fleet operations in general.

 

[Thucydides]

Interesting about the Russo-Japenese War. I'll look into that, but that was pre-dreadnought and basically pre-arms race. But I'll look into that, sounds interesting.

 

[Thucydides]

I read up on that incident. The Dogger Bank Incident, sounds like they came pretty close to war. But after that, how would we get German involvement which is kind of what I am going for.

 

[Maniakes]

I wasn't suggesting getting Germany involved in the Dogger Bank incident specifically, just citing that as an example of that sort of incident happening in that timeframe.

The best opportunity for a shooting incident between Britain and Germany would probably be the Second Moroccan Crisis in 1911, where Germany sent a gunboat to Morocco as a show of force, and Britain responded by sending battleships.

If you have Germany instead decide to send a larger show of force (battlecruisers, or perhaps battleships), the British are liable to panic and attempt to turn them back before they reach the English channel.

 

[Atreus]

If you have Germany instead decide to send a larger show of force (battlecruisers, or perhaps battleships), the British are liable to panic and attempt to turn them back before they reach the English channel.

Do German capital ships of the era have the range to make the journey? I remember that a number of the older battleships were effectivly confined to the north sea by range limitations, but in 1911 did they have any heavy units capable of a straight, high speed run from the North Sea to Morocco without refueling?

Not that they need to make it. All this scenario requires is the British to be spooked into intercepting the squadron (easy enough to do in the channel). Somehow, shooting starts, and we have a war.

 

[Thucydides]

That sounds good but here was what I was thinking. If the British help out in the Russo-Japanese War then there navy seems invincible, they take Fisher's advice to "Copenhagen"the German fleet at Kiel. But they recieve false information and most of the German fleet is out. A battle for the Atlantic commences.

Or.

After the Germans send the Panther, the British respond to a potential threat in Morocco and send Battleships. The next night a small boat captained by an insane anti-imperialist blows up next to a British battleship and destroys it. The British think that it is the Germans so they go to war.

Or.

A freak incident in the North Sea near Kiel occurs. A British battleship sails past a German ship conducting firing exercises, miles off and not able to see the ship and not being able to raise it on wireless the British take it as an attack and open fire. The Germans respond and several ship are sent out to confront the British ships. The end result is the death of about 50 sailors on each side and a subsequent declaration of war.


My personal favorite is the third one because it only involves Britain and Germany and would be almost strictly naval unless something weird happens.

After we decide which one to use we need to figure out what the other countries would do.

 

[Thucydides]

I wasn't suggesting getting Germany involved in the Dogger Bank incident specifically, just citing that as an example of that sort of incident happening in that timeframe.

The best opportunity for a shooting incident between Britain and Germany would probably be the Second Moroccan Crisis in 1911, where Germany sent a gunboat to Morocco as a show of force, and Britain responded by sending battleships.

If you have Germany instead decide to send a larger show of force (battlecruisers, or perhaps battleships), the British are liable to panic and attempt to turn them back before they reach the English channel.

Sorry I started writing the post above before you posted this.
This sounds like a much better idea. But what would France do about it? After all was their problem in the first place.

 

[MrP]

Do German capital ships of the era have the range to make the journey? I remember that a number of the older battleships were effectivly confined to the north sea by range limitations, but in 1911 did they have any heavy units capable of a straight, high speed run from the North Sea to Morocco without refueling?

Not that they need to make it. All this scenario requires is the British to be spooked into intercepting the squadron (easy enough to do in the channel). Somehow, shooting starts, and we have a war.

German range is probably ok. I'll check in a moment on range of ships available in '11. But German practice was to quarter the crews ashore. British practice, in contrast, was to keep the crews aboard. That and a few German warships with comparatively low ranges has created a few misconceptions.

The four Nassau class have a designed range of 8000 NM @ 10kts, Bluecher: 6600 NM @ 12 kts, and Von der Tann (completed February '11): 4400NM @ 14kts.

According to this site -

For the Nassau class:
Port of loading: Kiel, DE
Port of discharge: Agadir, MA
Distance: 1834 nautical miles
Vessel speed: 10 knots
Time: 7 days 15 hours

For Bluecher:
Vessel speed: 12 knots
Time: 6 days 9 hours

For VDT:
Vessel speed: 14 knots
Time: 5 days 11 hours

So all the heavy units of the fleet can steam at 10 kts and be there in a little over a week. Tangentially, I'm really quite pleased you asked that, as I'd not have found that site otherwise!

 

[CalBear]

That sounds good but here was what I was thinking. If the British help out in the Russo-Japanese War then there navy seems invincible, they take Fisher's advice to "Copenhagen"the German fleet at Kiel. But they recieve false information and most of the German fleet is out. A battle for the Atlantic commences.

Or.

After the Germans send the Panther, the British respond to a potential threat in Morocco and send Battleships. The next night a small boat captained by an insane anti-imperialist blows up next to a British battleship and destroys it. The British think that it is the Germans so they go to war.

Or.

A freak incident in the North Sea near Kiel occurs. A British battleship sails past a German ship conducting firing exercises, miles off and not able to see the ship and not being able to raise it on wireless the British take it as an attack and open fire. The Germans respond and several ship are sent out to confront the British ships. The end result is the death of about 50 sailors on each side and a subsequent declaration of war.


My personal favorite is the third one because it only involves Britain and Germany and would be almost strictly naval unless something weird happens.

After we decide which one to use we need to figure out what the other countries would do.

Okay, reality check time.

High Seas Fleet - 4 Dreadnaught types, 19 pre-dreadnaughts

Imperial Japanese Navy ZERO Dreadnaught types, 19 pre-dreadnaughts, including 8 captured Russian ship.

USN - 4 Dreadnaught types, 21 pre-dreadnaughts

Three LARGEST potential RN opponents combined - 8 Dreadnaughts, 59 pre-dreadnaughts speaking three different languages, and scattered literally around the world.

Royal Navy - Eight Dreadnaughts, 47 pre-dreadnaughts

Short version - Royal Navy in a walk.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

German range is probably ok. I'll check in a moment on range of ships available in '11. But German practice was to quarter the crews ashore. British practice, in contrast, was to keep the crews aboard. That and a few German warships with comparatively low ranges has created a few misconceptions.

The four Nassau class have a designed range of 8000 NM @ 10kts, Bluecher: 6600 NM @ 12 kts, and Von der Tann (completed February '11): 4400NM @ 14kts.

According to this site -

For the Nassau class:
Port of loading: Kiel, DE
Port of discharge: Agadir, MA
Distance: 1834 nautical miles
Vessel speed: 10 knots
Time: 7 days 15 hours

For Bluecher:
Vessel speed: 12 knots
Time: 6 days 9 hours

For VDT:
Vessel speed: 14 knots
Time: 5 days 11 hours

So all the heavy units of the fleet can steam at 10 kts and be there in a little over a week. Tangentially, I'm really quite pleased you asked that, as I'd not have found that site otherwise!

They have to have the range - Goeben made it from Sicily to Istanbul at full power, which has got to be many, many times the fuel consumption at crusing speed - and with a badly fouled bottom, machinery in serious need of overhaul, and zigzagging all over the place.

 

[David S Poepoe]

Royal Navy - Eight Dreadnaughts, 47 pre-dreadnaughts

Short version - Royal Navy in a walk.

Should we be considering anywhere between 1908-1910 or so the British will also seize the Brazilian dreadnoughts Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo under construction in Britain.

At the same time the US could seize the US contracted Argentinian dreadnoughts Rivadavia and Moreno.

 

[Thucydides]

The Helgoland, Ostefriesland and Thuringen would be commissioned in late August and early September, if the Germans really were in a war they would probably speed up that process. So that adds three more dreadnoughts to the German arsenal.

And we are also forgetting submarines and other commerce raiders to help cripple Britain.

 

[Thucydides]

Okay, reality check time.

High Seas Fleet - 4 Dreadnaught types, 19 pre-dreadnaughts

Imperial Japanese Navy ZERO Dreadnaught types, 19 pre-dreadnaughts, including 8 captured Russian ship.

USN - 4 Dreadnaught types, 21 pre-dreadnaughts

Three LARGEST potential RN opponents combined - 8 Dreadnaughts, 59 pre-dreadnaughts speaking three different languages, and scattered literally around the world.

Royal Navy - Eight Dreadnaughts, 47 pre-dreadnaughts

Short version - Royal Navy in a walk.

Does the Royal Navy statistics include ships around the world or just the home fleet. Because I really doubt that the British could have eight Dreadnoughts and 47 pre-dreadnoughts capable of operating in the North Sea alone.

 

[edep12]

lord fisher

lord fisher had proposed bb with 4*2 508 battleships
what powerful

 

[MrP]

They have to have the range - Goeben made it from Sicily to Istanbul at full power, which has got to be many, many times the fuel consumption at cruising speed - and with a badly fouled bottom, machinery in serious need of overhaul, and zigzagging all over the place.

Aye, I assumed they would have the range. But it's best to have one's workings on display. Hm, that sounded weird. I blame watching The Thing last night with all its squidgy glistening dogs and spidery heads. The distance from Sicily to Istanbul is only half that from Kiel to Agadir, too.

 

[MrP]

Does the Royal Navy statistics include ships around the world or just the home fleet. Because I really doubt that the British could have eight Dreadnoughts and 47 pre-dreadnoughts capable of operating in the North Sea alone.

I forget when it was done, but they spent the pre-war period cosying up to Japan so they could strip down the Eastern garrison. Might have been about 8 pre-dreads plus support ships in 1914. But don't trust my memory. Remember the gate swings both ways: Germany will need to keep a squadron of predreads in the Baltic to cover the Russians.

 

[David S Poepoe]

I forget when it was done, but they spent the pre-war period cosying up to Japan so they could strip down the Eastern garrison. Might have been about 8 pre-dreads plus support ships in 1914. But don't trust my memory. Remember the gate swings both ways: Germany will need to keep a squadron of predreads in the Baltic to cover the Russians.

And with the Entente Cordial with France the British were able to withdraw significant elements from the Mediterranean.

 

[Andrew Hudson]

A rather unlikely scenario. Britain remained ahead of Germany throughout the Naval Arms Race having built the Dreadnought and was well ahead on battle cruisers as well. The two power standard meant that Britain had a Mediterranean fleet as well although by 1910 it was effectively ceding the Mediterranean to France. Nevertheless there would be sufficient older pre-dreanoughts to deal with any Austrian threat and once France was involved, they would deal with Austria.

The American entry into war with Japan would pose thre biggest threat but the Imperial Japanese Nany might be able to counter them. Presumably America would move in when Japan siezed German Pacific colonies. Would Russia stay neutral? With a war on the Western Frpny only, the Germans would probably be in Paris within six weeks.