For Lack of a Fair Wind

For lack of a fair wind

It is often said that history is written by the victors. This, to a large extent, is true in the case of the 1588 Spanish armada. While many people dismiss the invasion of the Spanish Armada as being untenable and inevitable to defeat, the reality is that had Medina Sidonia, the admiral in command of the Armada, followed his instinct and not the orders of Philip II and rode in on the tide into Plymouth harbour, the English fleet could have been destroyed leaving England’s coast undefended.

In this particular timeline, however, Medina gathered his courage and gave the orders to commence the attack at the Council of War[FONT=&quot][/FONT]. It was thus; on July 20th the Spanish fleet sailed into Plymouth Harbour and crushed the anchored English fleet there. The only consolation that the English had was that the two admirals, Lord Howard and Sir Francis Drake both escaped the following carnage as each English ship was subject to a massive cannonade of fire. More than twenty-four of the English ships were taken as battle prizes.

England’s worse fears had come true; the coasts of England were completely open to Spanish invasion, and nothing stood between the Armada and Parma’s veteran forces. Despite delays in communication between Parma and the Armada, the fleet arrived at Parma’s position at July 29th, safely harboured in the knowledge that no attack could take place against the fleet. Despite the lack of obstacles between the Armada and Parma, however, communications remained poor and thus by the time the Armada arrived, the majority of Parma’s forces were scattered across Calais in order to save supplies[FONT=&quot][ii][/FONT]. Despite this, within 48 hours the Army of Flanders, soon to be remaned the Army of England, was gathered and beginning to board the Armada.

Even as this was going on, however, Queen Elizabeth was facing trouble. With the knowledge that the Spanish Armada had free access to England, the army gathered from the surrounding villages of Essex and from the Holland Expeditionary force had begun to desert in huge numbers, leaving only 3,000[FONT=&quot][iii][/FONT]. It was clear to Elizabeth that if there had been any chance of stopping the Spanish, it would have been at sea. It was thus that on the advice of Sir John Norris who commanded the forces of the southeast that she withdrew the small army back to London on August 3rd, with orders going ahead to London to marshal the London militias, many of whom had been drilling twice a week since March. At the same time, the southern militias were ordered to gather at Berkshire under the command of Admirals Howard and Parma, who had escaped the debacle at Plymouth with more than 3,000 armed sailors around which the militias were to gather with any weaponry they could find.

On August 6th, the Armada landed at Essex near Tilbury Fort. More than 36,000 soldiers landed and had within a few hours moved and captured several surrounding villages. Vigorous questioning of several villages led to the information that Elizabeth had fled to London. At the same time of the questioning, many of the Spanish soldiers began to engage in widespread looting and rape[FONT=&quot][iv][/FONT]. Although the Essex Atrocities are lesser known in comparison to later events, more than two hundred civilians were killed, with particular attention being paid to Protestant Churches, the majority of which were burnt.

Despite this less than ideal start to the Spanish invasion of England, Parma soon restored order amongst the newly named Army of England and leaving behind 6,000 troops, marched with 30,000 towards London. Although the majority of soldiers amongst this army came from Spain and had spent the better part of a month in the Armada, the key centre of his force came directly from fighting in the United Provinces. This veteran centrepiece continued to set the tone for which the remainder of the army had to follow. Over fifty miles lay between the landing point and London itself. On the march, at every town Parma found nearly every one of its male inhabitants to be missing; further questioning led to the knowledge that every man was being conscripted in preparation for the defence of London.

It says something to Parma’s military discipline that the Army of England reached London a mere day after Elizabeth’s own forces had, despite the English almost having a three day start[FONT=&quot][v][/FONT]. Almost immediately, several problems had been found in the defence of London. The only real defence that London could boast were its medieval walls which could easily breached. Even its defenders were outnumbered; as only 16,000 troops had been mustered from the surrounding regions of London. Despite this advantage, however, Parma didn’t make the killer blow, apparently choosing to lay siege to the east of London, its cannons occasionally firing at the walls. Parma even sent part of his army back, apparently to secure Essex. It wasn’t until three days later that the reason for Parma’s reluctance to engage became clear.

The River Thames had always been seen as a potential way in which London itself could be breached by foreign invaders. Yet, it had always been supposed that Tilbury Fort and other such defences would prove suitable to stop any riverborne invasion in its tracks. It is surprising, therefore, that Elizabeth and her ministers took little precaution in creating any defences. The one attempt to build a boom across the river to stop enemy shipping simply broke as soon as it reached high tide, and no further attempt was made to repair it[FONT=&quot][vi][/FONT]. It was easy enough for a messenger riding by horse to simply make his way from London to where the fleet had docked at Haywich. From there, it was easy to separate more than 30 ships from the fleet and send them up the Thames, picking up the separated soldiers along the way and land them right in London itself.

Even as the Spanish ships sailed without any effective resistance down the Thames, dozens of civilians began to gather on the river side’s to watch the spectacle. To this day, it is unknown which ship began the terrible event, but regardless, an overzealous gun crew opened fire, quickly joined by countless other crews. As the screaming masses fled from the waterway, one of the cannonballs bounced over the heads and directly into a wooden shack where it caught fire. The fire rapidly spread through the city. At the worse possible moment, Parma, alerted to the start of his plan by a messenger, began his attack and diverted any possible fire response. The attack quickly broke through the pitiful defences, many defenders having fled near the start of the fighting either through cowardice or to preserve what they could of their homes. Before long, the attack floundered and in general good order, the Spanish formations fell back to the camp where they watched in astonishment as they saw the work of God done before them

On the river, countless numbers of small boats fled to its surface, many of them meeting their fates by drowning or through asphyxiation from the smoke. None of the Spanish ships sent into London that day ever returned, the burnt husks merely joining thousands of other remains. In a poem made by the famous Spanish priest, Juan de Yepes Alvarez, he wrote of the brave Catholic ships fighting the very bastion of hell alongside the angels and saints, who came down from heaven and fought alongside the sailors and soldiers. Amongst them, he added, died the demonness of the Protestant heresy herself; Queen Elizabeth.

The consequences of the Great Fire of London were clear; both the spiritual and secular heart of the nation had been ripped out. Not only had England’s capital been destroyed, but the government itself had fallen. Without a designated heir, England had been crippled. Parma had accomplished more with one battle than he could have any anywhere else. As news began to spread, eyes began to turn to the only real major area of resistance left in England; Howard and Drake to whom the remants of the Elizabethan government, including William Cecil, fled.

[FONT=&quot][/FONT] In OTL, the Duke of Medina chose to continue to sail east towards the Isle of Wight rather than take the chance of attacking the English fleet

[FONT=&quot][ii][/FONT] Communication is as bad as described. In OTL, Parma’s forces were indeed scattered and unprepared for the arrival of the Armada

[FONT=&quot][iii][/FONT] In OTL, desertions were already taking place by the time the Armada had arrived at Calais, in ITTL, the destruction of the English fleet means that more are deserting

[FONT=&quot][iv][/FONT] The Army of Flanders was well known for its discipline on the battlefield, but when off the battlefield were notorious for atrocities such as the Sack of Antwerp and its various mutinies when not paid regularly

[FONT=&quot][v][/FONT] In 1592, Parma’s 22,000 strong army marched 65 miles in six days during the invasion of London; it isn’t hard to assume that Parma could have achieved the same when facing little resistance

[FONT=&quot][vi][/FONT] This actually occurred in OTL

This is my first real Alternative Timeline which looks at what might happen had the Spanish Armada been more successful in the invasion of England. Don't forget to comment.
 
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kaeim...

1) There wasn't any chance of the Spanish fleet being able to get in to Plymouth before the English ships emerged. Drake's comment that there was no need for alarm and there was time to finish the game of bowls was based on the tides, weather conditions and such and was entirely correct.

2) The movement of Parma's forces would first require the transport capacity which he did not have and which the Armada, already suffering serious supply problems and packed with soldiers, could not provide.

3) In the event enough transports were miraculously found the Dutch fleet would have had the dream of slaughtering Parma's army at sea as the ligher draught Dutch ships shredded slaughtered the Spanish in shallow waters while the Spanish galleons watched helplessly.

4) It also makes absolutely no sense for the Spanish Armada to invade France at Calais.


Now, in France if the last of the Valois does not strike down the Duke of Guise the likely result is, at best, a crippled France which never posts the gains of our 17th and 18th Centuries. At worst, France broken into two major sub-kingdoms and several smaller nations is quite possible, with border regions lost to the Hapsburgs and other nations.

What this means for Europe and the Catholic Church when the decline of the Hapsburgs takes place in the 17th Century, particularly the horror Spain became, is probably nothing pleasant to consider.:(
 
1) There wasn't any chance of the Spanish fleet being able to get in to Plymouth before the English ships emerged. Drake's comment that there was no need for alarm and there was time to finish the game of bowls was based on the tides, weather conditions and such and was entirely correct.

Actually, on the day in question the tide was heavily against the English fleet, and they were trapped in harbour. Had the Spanish attacked that evening, the English fleet would have been effectively devestated. In this timeline, the Spanish in fact did attack and knocked out the English ships.

2) The movement of Parma's forces would first require the transport capacity which he did not have and which the Armada, already suffering serious supply problems and packed with soldiers, could not provide.

I probably should've done a bit more on this; so I'm going to go change it in a second. Basically, some more transports were found from the Prizes of War from the defeat of the English fleet, the Spanish Armada in addition to its sailors already carried over 18,000 soldiers intended for the invasion. So basically, more troops were carried onto the Armada in this timeline.

3) In the event enough transports were miraculously found the Dutch fleet would have had the dream of slaughtering Parma's army at sea as the ligher draught Dutch ships shredded slaughtered the Spanish in shallow waters while the Spanish galleons watched helplessly.

The Dutch fleet was nowhere near the Spanish fleet either in OTL or in this timeline. So while they most likely would've if they could've, they didn't.

I have no idea where you're getting the idea that the Spanish Armada invaded Calais...
 
Well, so far looking good. But apart from the less economically important north of England and Ireland, very little of the country is going to be supportive of the Spanish, particularly with no legitimate ruler to put in power. Even worse, the clear heir in this situation is James VI of Scotland, now 21, and with Scotland firmly Presbetarian it seems quite likely that he will at the very least support the English protestants. Then you've got the Dutch using the troop withdrawal to rampage across the Spanish Netherlands, so that means some of the Armada troops are going to need to be withdrawn, and the French are going to prove highly uncooperative, if not actually hostile, because the last thing they want is Spanish in Iberia, Spain, the Netherlands and England.

Quite frankly, if you're intending to have England reconvert to Catholicism (which judging from the likely play out of the Gunpowder plot only 17 years later is very unlikely) you're going to need a miricle. You'll need an even larger one to actually have the Spanish remain in control for long.
 
Almost immediately after the Fire of London, Parma moved rapidly to establish control over England. Fully expecting reinforcements from Spain as soon as word arrived to Philip II, Parma had two choices. The first was to march north where he could reasonably expect the mainly Catholic north to tolerate, if not support him and his army. The second choice was to take control of the rich Protestant south with its abundance of ports and wealth. The decision made by Parma remains one of the great “what ifs” of the 16th century. In the North, more than 6,000 soldiers stood on the Scottish border having awaited a possible Scottish invasion in the event that James IV of Scotland chose to invade England. At the same time, one of the most powerful men at the time remained in the Council of the North; Henry Hastings, one of the few remaining descendants of the previous dynasty of the Plantagenet family and a viable heir to the English throne. Not only that, but he was well known amongst the rapidly growing Protestant population.

The decision for Parma, at the time, seemed obvious at the time. Instead of marching north, Parma chose the southern march, believing that reinforcements would soon arrive. In later years, he wrote to correspondents lamenting his decision, but remained stubborn that he made the best decision with the information available to him at the time. Leaving behind over 3,000 troops to take command of the burnt husk of London and its remaining population, Parma split his remaining troops into two; taking the larger force of 22,000 men west towards where Howard and Drake were still desperately marshalling the southern militias while the remaining 8,000 marched south into Surrey and Sussex. Once again, resistance was modest. Upon hearing of London’s destruction and Elizabeth’s death, Howard and Drake fled with a mere 8,000 militia[FONT=&quot][/FONT], many of them armed with only what they could grab. Along with this force came the remnants of the Privy Council, not least William Cecil, the chief advisor and the Lord High Treasurer. It was to York that the troops gathered.

However, even as Parma began his march to conquer the largely undefended south, events were spiralling out of control in the north. When news reached James IV, almost immediately war was declared between Scotland and England using the Treaty of Berwick[FONT=&quot][ii][/FONT] as his excuse for the declaration of war. Although the Treaty of Berwick by itself was a legitimate excuse for the declaration of war, it is generally believed by modern historians that James IV saw the death of Elizabeth as the perfect time to push forward his Stuart claim to the throne of England. A more cynical claim is that Scotland’s wealth simply wasn’t enough to support James’ extravagance.

In any case, as soon as war was declared, an army of over 14,000 was gathered and sent into England under the command of James Steward. Steward, a royal favourite of James IV had risen to power under James’ patronage. Despite this, his rise to power had coincided with a political alliance from the hated Esmé Stewart, who many Scottish noblemen had seen as a threat to themselves and so forcibly removed him from Scotland. For once, the army of Scots was not met with hostility, but with letters of friendship.

It had been William Cecil, one of the closest advisors to Elizabeth, who managed to convince men such as Henry Hastings to acknowledge James IV as the rightful heir to Elizabeth. He pointed out James’ many desirable traits, such as his well known Protestant faith and the fact he could bring Scotland’s armies to assist in reclaiming southern England from the horrors of Catholicism. Despite what James offered, however, many in the ranks of Northern England felt a great distaste for James IV. It had not been long ago that Mary Queen of Scots, James mother, had been executed by England’s own hand. In particular, Henry Hastings feared the coming of the new King for he had been instrument in the murder of James’ mother. Needless to say, he felt that he was a much more preferable Monarch to any Scot. In this, he was joined by Lord Howard who also played a role in the death of James’ mother[FONT=&quot][iii][/FONT]. Although both men grudgingly accepted James IV as their protector for now, it was clear that the two powerful men would not accept him as their Monarch in the long term.

Problems began to emerge between the Scottish and English armies as soon as they drew close to each other. Many northern soldiers, particularly those near the Scottish border, were extremely hostile to the Scottish, who in their turn despised the English as soft. Even in the higher chain of command was there disagreement over who would command the army. Although James Steward was clearly more experienced, both Howard and Drake were unwilling to allow their portion of the army into the hands of a Scot, despite the fact they themselves had never fought a land battle. Even the marching orders of the two armies were argued over, Drake and Howard insisting the English go first into their own country, while Steward simply wanted the greater glory from being the one to face the enemy first.

Even as the two armies quarrelled between themselves, Parma had succeeded in taking most of the southeast by the middle of September. Many cities and towns, when faced with the Spanish forces, simply opened their gates. In nearly every case, every Protestant Church was either looted or burnt to the ground, the army commanders unwilling to prevent their troops. In an ironic turn of events, it was many Protestant preachers who found themselves hiding in the cellars of rich Protestant families.
It was around this time that the first Catholic missionaries arrived from Europe to begin re-educating England in the ways of Catholicism. Amongst these priests came Cardinal William Allen, an English exile and who had been instrument in the excommunication of Elizabeth and the subsequent planning of the Spanish Armada. His agreed role in the aftermath of the successful invasion was to take the position of Lord Chancellor and become Bishop of Canterbury. Upon arrival at Canterbury Cathedral, his first act was to re-establish its status as an abbey and to begin restoring it to its former glory. Alongside Cardinal Allen followed many Jesuits and many of his English students from the University of Douay in order to commence spreading Catholicism back through England. Some even moved into Northern England where they found themselves more popular. However, despite the best efforts of these missionaries, many found themselves ignored at best, and at worse often murdered. It was in the rural areas that their efforts truly began to flower Catholicism. However, what Allen ultimately failed to realise was that many of England’s Catholics no longer believed the secular was less important than the spiritual. Many had been loyal to Elizabeth, and saw the invasion of Spanish soldiers as treasonous. In the long run, although Allen would strive to keep England Catholic, the roots of Protestantism were fully sown, and would never truly be dug out.

Meanwhile, as soon as word had reached Philip II of the successful invasion of England, after extensive consultation with his council, it was finally agreed to Spain would use the Armada to once again take a further 20,000 soldiers to reinforce Parma in England. With the defeat of England, it was reasoned that the Dutch rebels would soon fall without English support[FONT=&quot][iv][/FONT]. Foolishly, to the eyes of many foreign observers at the time, the Dutch had further weakened their position by introducing a Republic instead of a Monarch to rule the state, further weakening them. In France, the civil war was continuing with Henry III facing dissent from his people over continued bad relations between Henry and the Guise family. Spain was triumphant in most areas of the Empire. All that remained now was to crush the remaining Protestants in England and finish off the Dutch before a new Monarch could be placed on the English throne who was suitably pro-Spanish.

[FONT=&quot][/FONT] With it being close to harvest time, I doubt that many farmers would have stayed to fight in what would appear to be a prolonged campaign

[FONT=&quot][ii][/FONT] In 1586, an mutual defensive pact was signed between England and Scotland promising military aid in the event that the other was invaded by a foreign power

[FONT=&quot][iii][/FONT]Both Henry Hastings and Lord Howard were commissioners in the trial of Mary Queen of Scots

[FONT=&quot][iv][/FONT] Which was partly the main reason for invading England in the first place
 
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OK, looking good. I'm guessing that Holland blows up Phillip's face and England proves a costly failure, who's only success is to gain independence for Ireland (heck, after this I wouldn't be surprised if many English Catholics flee in the face of fresh waves of persecution).
 
OK, looking good. I'm guessing that Holland blows up Phillip's face and England proves a costly failure, who's only success is to gain independence for Ireland (heck, after this I wouldn't be surprised if many English Catholics flee in the face of fresh waves of persecution).
English Catholics flee to Spain and start a middle class?

Just throwing it out there. :rolleyes:

BTW, TC, your links to the footnotes in your post fail miserably for me. Might want to fix them or remove them.
 
MNP, basically they came with Microsoft Word for me, and its easy enough to see where the footnotes correspond in the text. Just don't click on them and we'll all be fine ;)

Anyway, the real reason why I'm posing, I made you a rough map of what the Spanish occupy so far. Be warned, its a very rough guess. :D

tudor-england-counties.jpg
 
MNP, basically they came with Microsoft Word for me, and its easy enough to see where the footnotes correspond in the text. Just don't click on them and we'll all be fine ;)
I don't mean delete them, just in the future de-link them. It's the little paperclip icon with the red x through it above where you writer your post.
 
By December, 1588, the majority of Southern England was under occupation. Only the furthest counties to the west and a few resilient towns continued to hold out. Meanwhile, the north remained as resistant and as incompetent as ever. Under the combined commands of Lord Howard and James Steward, the army of some 26,000 had done little in the time after having mustered their forces. To a large extent, the fault lies with Steward and from Steward, James IV himself. James IV knew that the longer Spain moved unopposed and longer the army remained in place, the stronger Scotland and thus James’ position would be. The English basically needed James IV, for with the majority of England’s forces in the United Provinces and with the south and its larger population out of recruitment range, it effectively left Scotland providing the muscle. Even the Irish, long used by the English for her wars, could not be used or trusted for fear of them turning at a critical moment in a battle. The more that James IV was needed, the stronger his position would be when it came to the question of succession.

This simple and effective policy of stalemate was seen and recognised as such by the only other real contender to the English throne; Henry Hastings. With the loss of Elizabeth and the loss of southern England, it was the northern Lords that increased in stature and influence in the remains of the English government. It was to the Council of the North that they looked to for backing, and Henry Hastings, the Chairman of the Council, took advantage of this. Using the natural loathing of the Scots and the fears of those few remaining ministers who had served under Elizabeth, Hastings made sure that he was seen by many as being the true heir to Elizabeth, his Plantagenet linage only helping to push forward that motion. However, near the end of December, the Council of the North was rocked to its foundations when three Catholic Jesuits[FONT=&quot][/FONT] were discovered in the homes of a councilman on the Council of the North. Immediately, suspicions ran wild as to how deep this Catholic influence ran. Although Hastings largely escaped this suspicion, for he was undoubtedly a Protestant and a Puritan[FONT=&quot][ii][/FONT], he did not escape the suspicion that he led a group of closet Catholics. To a certain extent, however, this arguably succeeded in raising Hastings’ popularity in the north, for a great many of its population were indeed private Catholics.

For the Spanish, however, everything up to December had gone with hardly a hitch. Despite the Fire of London, the conquest of England had gone exactly as Parma had hoped. Nearly all of southern England with its valuable ports had been taken. An added bonus came in the capture of Arbella Stuart, who was found and apprehended when attempting to flee with her guardian, and grandmother, Bess, from Berkshire. Under heavy guard, she was taken to Canterbury which at this time was rapidly establishing itself as the new capital of the south. However, it was at this point that disaster struck. A month previous, the Spanish Armada had been called back to Spain to transport more troops into England to support Parma. However, while on the way back to England with its valuable cargo, it was hit by one of England’s famous storms, sending more than two dozen into the ocean. The surviving fleet limped into a English port at Dartmouth and deposited only 12,000 soldiers. The next disaster was significantly worse for the Spanish. London had always been known for its tight streets and its diseases. The Black Death in particular was still present[FONT=&quot][iii][/FONT]. When London began to burn, much of its population and wildlife, including thousands of rats, began to move out into the nearby countryside. The Black Death was officially documented at the village of Pinner, where more than 3,000 refugees had descended on the unprepared Parish. From there, it spread rapidly across the whole of England. By the time the disease burnt itself out, more than 140,000 were believed to have died. One of its most important casualties was Parma himself and 6,000 Spanish soldiers. Nor did the English army get off lightly with more than 7,000 left dead[FONT=&quot][iv][/FONT], including Sir Francis Drake. One consequence of this was the separation of Scottish and English troops into different camps, the official reason being to avert the chance of disease striking again.

The death of Parma meant that a new leader was necessary for the Spanish troops. After a meeting by the Spanish nobles, it was decided that Antonio Álvarez de Toledo, 5th Duke of Alba[FONT=&quot][v][/FONT] would take over unless Philip II decided otherwise. The Duke of Alba, the grandson of Fernando Álvarez de Toledo, 3rd Duke of Albahad been present with Parma during the invasion of England and was determined to expunge the failings of his grandfather in the Netherlands. His appointment was controversial to say the least, for the stories of his grandfather’s cruelty and malice in the Netherlands were still talked about in both the Netherlands and England. Luckily, Antonio showed none of his grandfather’s failings, and proved to be a capable military administrator, if not yet proven to be a military commander.

Although Spain’s military force had suffered heavily in England with the loss of Parma and been robbed the momentum promised by fresh reinforcements, Spain was still in a powerful position. Meanwhile on the continent, France once again erupted into outright warfare after Henry III murdered Henry of Guise. Henry of Guise was one of the prominent political leaders during the French Wars of Religion. Having both created and leading the Catholic League, he and his followers were supported by figures such as Philip II of Spain and the Popes of this era. When Henri III came to the throne, his actions involving the Edict of Beaulieu which granted concessions to the Huguenots completely angered the Catholic League who quickly forced Henry to cancel these concessions. For the time, it seemed as though Henry of Guise was the true master of France. The impressions rapidly grew to reality with the death of Henry III’s youngest brother and presumed heir, Francis, Duke of Anjoy in 1584. The new heir was presumed to be Henry of Navarre whose blood was descended from Saint Louis IX. He was also a Protestant. Henry of Guise rapidly forced Henry III to annul Henry of Navarre from the throne. The situation grew out of control when Henry III was forced out of Paris by the mob, sponsored by the Catholic League. It wasn’t until December that Henry III returned to Paris after being forced to make Henry of Guise the Lieutenant-General of France. It was here that he took decisive action. Henry of Guise and his brother, Louis II, Cardinal of Guise were both assassinated. It was hoped that this way he could cull the activities of the Catholic League. However, he severely misjudged the popularity of Henry of Guise with the common people, who rapidly took up arms and threw Henry III out of Paris once again. Almost immediately afterwards, civil war once again broke out between the Catholic League and the two Henry’s. Philip II almost immediately began to funnel money to the Catholic League[FONT=&quot][vi][/FONT]. Perhaps Philip II expected that the Catholic League, riding on a wave of popularity in France would almost immediately crush Henry III upon which he could use his own influence in France to place a pro-Spanish Monarch. Yet, without realising it, Philip II had only further pushed his own country into more warfare.

Even as events in France began to take up Philip II’s attention, enough time was spared to send representatives to the Pope to finally decide who the new Monarch of England would be. At the same time, the Pope had promised a large subsidy of over 1 million crowns for the successful invasion of England, which was to be duly collected by the Spanish ambassadors. After much consultation, it was finally decided that the only true proper and Catholic candidate could only be Arbella Stuart, a direct descendent of Henry VII[FONT=&quot][vii][/FONT]. Her religious views were private, with few knowing what, if any, she possessed. She would take the throne and be married to a suitable candidate; the son of the Duke of Parma, Ranuccio Farnese[FONT=&quot][viii][/FONT]. Events would soon conspire to show just how terrible a decision this was.

[FONT=&quot][/FONT] As happened in OTL

[FONT=&quot][ii][/FONT] Hastings was a Calvinist, despite having served Queen Mary faithfully and had a great respect for his great uncle, Cardinal Reginald Pole, and was a patron of many English puritans

[FONT=&quot][iii][/FONT] The Black Death was reported to strike London in the years 1563, 1589 and 1603. With the Burning of London the disease was forced out of its natural habitat and into England where it spread rapidly a year earlier than it would in OTL

[FONT=&quot][iv][/FONT] More English soldiers died than Spanish soldiers because here, the English and Scottish are more tightly packed together

[FONT=&quot][v][/FONT] In all honesty, its very hard to find many records or specific details about the Army of Flanders at this time. So I’m afraid I butterflied a noble from wherever he might have been previously to England

[FONT=&quot][vi][/FONT] As happened in OTL

[FONT=&quot][vii][/FONT] In fact, Arbella was a very strong candidate for the throne after Elizabeth

[FONT=&quot][viii][/FONT] This had been considered in OTL.
 
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Hate to break this to you, but Arabella was a very protestant woman. She was the daughter of Charles Stewart, the younger brother of Mary's wife Lord Darnley and Elizabeth Cavendish the daugter of Bess of Hardwick. She had been brought up in a protestant household in England and Both Lennox and Cavendish were protestants. Bess certainly wouldn't want her granddaughter the puppet of a catholic king, and as the girl would have been in Chatsworth in the Midlands at the time, it's likely she would have been sent north to Scotland. Bess herself may have gone with her. Even if she hadn't, her protestant upbringing would have pretty swiftly invalidated her in the eyes of the Spanish. There's also the fact that going down that route actually has James VI as higher in the line of succession, so it would only add legitimacy to the Scotish Claim.
 
Hate to break this to you, but Arabella was a very protestant woman. She was the daughter of Charles Stewart, the younger brother of Mary's wife Lord Darnley and Elizabeth Cavendish the daugter of Bess of Hardwick. She had been brought up in a protestant household in England and Both Lennox and Cavendish were protestants. Bess certainly wouldn't want her granddaughter the puppet of a catholic king, and as the girl would have been in Chatsworth in the Midlands at the time, it's likely she would have been sent north to Scotland. Bess herself may have gone with her. Even if she hadn't, her protestant upbringing would have pretty swiftly invalidated her in the eyes of the Spanish. There's also the fact that going down that route actually has James VI as higher in the line of succession, so it would only add legitimacy to the Scotish Claim.

Despite Arabella's Protestant upbringing, she was considered for the role as Queen by the Catholic Church and Philip II in OTL. It isn't fully known to this day if in fact she was Protestant or Catholic, she's a bit of a mystery on this. In this timeline, she is confirmed as Queen by the Pope and its presumed that her very Catholic husband and the Spanish soldiers will keep her in check.

There were many plots attempted to reinstate the Catholic Church on the Throne via Arabella. A rumour sprang up purporting that Henry Percy, ninth Earl of Northumberland, a powerfull catholic, sought Arabella for his wife. The Percys wielded great influence in the North, where the nobles had been known to be sympathetic to Mary, Queen of Scots. Queen Elizabeth knew the Percys as potential trouble makers with a family history of plotting and double-dealing not calculated to inspire confidence. Henry Percy had no cause to love the Protestant ruler of England. But Bess assured the Queen of England that this would not happen. In 1602 Arabella was not getting any younger and longed for marriage. She began to plot her own marriage to Edward Seymour, the eldest grandson of the Earl of Hertford and Catherine Grey. Both Arbella and Edward were claimants to the throne. The Earl of Hertford apparently didn't gain sympathy for young lovers through his own experience with the Queen cousin. His eldest son, Edward, married Honora Rogers, a girl far below his station; Hertford did everything he could to end the marriage and his son threatened to commit suicide rather than return to Hertford's home.
- Tudorplace.com


Owing to Arbella's status as a possible heir to the throne, there was discussion of an appropriate marriage for her throughout her childhood. It would have suited the Roman Catholic Church for her to marry a member of the House of Savoy and then take the English throne. A marriage was also mooted with Ranuccio, eldest son of Alexander Farnese, Duke of Parma and Maria of Portugal. According to the Curiosities of Literature by Isaac D'Israeli, this scheme originated with the Pope, who eventually settled on his own brother, a cardinal, as a suitable husband for Arbella; the Pope defrocked his brother, freeing him to marry "Arbelle" (as the Italians spelled her name) and thus claim the Kingdom of England. Nothing came of this plan, and in fact there is no direct evidence that Arbella was either a believing Catholic or a Protestant.
- wikipedia




 
Despite Arabella's Protestant upbringing, she was considered for the role as Queen by the Catholic Church and Philip II in OTL. It isn't fully known to this day if in fact she was Protestant or Catholic, she's a bit of a mystery on this. In this timeline, she is confirmed as Queen by the Pope and its presumed that her very Catholic husband and the Spanish soldiers will keep her in check.

- Tudorplace.com


- wikipedia


Fair enough on the religous front. However, this does not get around a key point:

At the time of the Armada Arabella would have been with her Grandmother in Derbyshire. The speed of the conquest is such that there is plenty of time for Bess (herself a rather powerful protestant noble) and Arabella to vacate the region and leave for the Lennox family's lands in Scotland. As Bess would definately not have wanted her granddaughter to become a catholic puppet, this is quite a likely turn of events. While the Pope and King of Spain may very well declare Arabella the rightful Queen, it is very unlikely that they would actually be able to get to her in order to crown her, and as I said before, that line of sucession has James VI before Arabella, so it actually strengthens the Scottish claim. This does however raise an interesting situation. James is as yet unmarried, and is only 9 years Arabella's senior. With at the very least Arabella (and probably Bess as well) in Scotland, a marriage between Arabella and James VI (thus uniting the two branches, depriving the Spanish of their candidate and strengthening the Scottish claim) becomes an interesting and desirable possibility.
 
Alright, I can see where your coming from, but basically I've fallen in love with the Arbella idea, so I'm going to butterfly her to having taken a holiday in the south and be overtaken by Spanish troops.
 
Alright, I can see where your coming from, but basically I've fallen in love with the Arbella idea, so I'm going to butterfly her to having taken a holiday in the south and be overtaken by Spanish troops.

Umm that's really not going to work. Bess was under strict orders from Elizabeth to keep Arablla on her Derbyshire estates. And seeing as the POD is in actual fact during the Armada, the last place Arabella is going to take a holdiay to is towards the potential landing sites of an invading army.

Still, if you want Arabella as queen, you could always go with the marrying James VI idea (perhaps as a William and Mary style joint monarchy).
 
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