Following Gore win, most likely Presidential candidates 2004-2016

If Al Gore won in 2000, who do you think would run in the 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016 elections, who do you think would get each nomination, and who would win? I know butterflies make it hard to predict, especially the last 2 elections, but heres my scenario:

(2004 GOP Primary: John McCain v Bill Frist v Rudy Guiliani v Gary Johnson)
2004: President Al Gore / VP Joe Lieberman defeats Senator John McCain / Senator George Allen


(2008 GOP Primary: Jeb Bush v Mike Huckabee v Mitt Romney v Ron Paul)
(2008 Dem Primary: Hillary Clinton v Barack Obama v John Edwards v Joe Lieberman)
2008: Governor Jeb Bush / Governor Mike Huckabee defeats Senator Hillary Clinton / Senator John Edwards


(2012 Dem Primary: Martin O'Malley v Russ Feingold v Brian Schweitzer v Mark Warner)
2012: President Jeb Bush / VP Mike Huckabee defeats Governor Martin O'Malley / Governor Brian Schweitzer


(2016 GOP Primary: VP Mike Huckabee v Jon Huntsman v Rand Paul v Bob McDonnell)
(2016 Dem Primary: Barack Obama v Andrew Cuomo v John Hickenlooper v Brian Schweitzer)
2016: Senator Barack Obama / Senator Mark Warner defeats Vice President Mike Huckabee / Governor Susanna Martinez


Note: 9/11 still happens; Afghan War still happens; no Iraq invasion in first Gore term; financial crash still happens; Arab Spring still happens; successful NATO intervention in Iraq in order to help rebels during 2011-12 uprising leads to Saddam Hussein fall from power in 2012; weak economic growth throughout much of Bush presidency but debt lower than in OTL; Obama win in 2016 is very close.

Do you think my scenario is likely, or does anyone have a better one?

EDIT: I just realised Kirsten Gillibrand can't be the 2016 Democrat VP because Hillary won't have given up her New York senate seat to become Secretary of State since Jeb Bush won in 2008. So while its possible Hillary could have decided not to run for re-election as senator in 2012, and so Gillibrand could still be a senator in 2016, I decided to change Obama's 2016 VP to Mark Warner.
 
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It seems fairly plausible to me, I could see Jeb becoming president since his brother hasn't already, especially after 16 years of a democratic administration. I'm not entirely certainly whether Obama would run again in 2016, especially if he didn't in 2012, but I don't have much to go on for that.
 

d32123

Banned
This seems very plausible, though I have seen strong arguments that Gore wouldn't get re-elected in 2004 before.
 
I thought the election of Gore would have ushered in an era of such joy and perfection that he would be POTUS for life ?

<INSERT HEAVY but good natured Sarcasm here>

Seriously, an interesting scenario and the names above seem plausable. Once work calms down I may post some of my own musings
 
I like it, but I think Jeb is a longshot in this scenario. His father lost in 1992 and his brother lost in 2000. Democrats have held the White House for 16 years. I don't think the party is going to like the idea of going back to a Bush. There will be a bit of an air of 'loser' around the family name, and that kind of thing can jinx you if the party has been so long in the wilderness.

So who steps up in 2008? Mitt Romney seems plausible - the party might be trying to capture the center, and Romney seems best capable to show himself to the GOP as the guy who could even win Massachusetts. That might be an asset. I'd expect to see John Ashcroft, if he can come back from losing his senate seat in 2000: there might be a lot of pressure for a real social conservative. Tom Ridge is also out there.
 
in 2004 President Gore cruises to renomination and wins the election.
On the Republican side, John McCain beats Mike Hukabee. r Rudi Giuliani fizzles early like OTL.
in 2008 Hillary Clinton and Joe Lieberman fight for the Democratic nomination. mMitt Romney beats the OTL field minus McCain and Giuliani.
 
2004: Al Gore/Joe Lieberman defeat John McCain/Elizabeth Dole

I'd say Al Gore has no challenge to the Democratic nomination in 2004 unless he seriously screws up something within the party. On the Republican side, I'd say McCain is the obvious frontrunner. You'd see Bill Frist, Elizabeth Dole, Giuliani if there's a 9/11 attack, maybe someone like Tommy Thompson or another guy with a big resume but not a whole lot else, and then either Ron Paul or Gary Johnson, more likely the latter. McCain gets the nomination, decides to make up ground with women by picking Dole, and is defeated in a close election by Gore who has the power of the incumbency on his side.

2008: Mitt Romney/George Allen defeat Joe Lieberman/John Edwards

2008 is going to be a lot different than OTL. Romney's going to look plenty conservative compared with McCain 4 years previous, and will be able to compete for New Hampshire. I think he's the only sure thing candidate. Frist will probably be out for criminal reasons, though I assume he'd have been the presumptive nominee until then since he would've come in second in '04. Elizabeth Dole...eh. She might run, but it will have been her third attempt. I don't see her getting much traction even as the previous VP nominee. Allen will run, too, but he's not going to have the money or connections to compete with the organization that Romney's been building for years, plus he'll be tapped out from his 2006 senate race. As long as things don't get too acrimonious between those two, he'd make a great bottom of the ticket for Romney.

On the Democratic side of things, you're probably going to see Hillary sit this one out. after 16 years of Democrats in the White House, things are going to be dicey for the Democratic nominee. My bet is that Lieberman is going to avoid many big name challenges. Maybe have Feingold pull a Bradley on him. Still, he's the sitting VP, so the nomination is his for the taking. He picks the still fresh, not-yet-skeevy Senator Edwards whose youth offsets his...Lieberman-ness.

The Republicans win in part because of an ailing economy, though the crash likely won't be as bad, and because of party fatigue.

2012: Hillary Clinton/Ted Strickland defeat Mitt Romney/George Allen

The economy isn't it getting worse. The bad news is that it probably hasn't been getting much better, either. People are looking back fondly on the 1990's as a time of relative peace (I'm assuming that we're in a war somewhere in the Middle East) and prosperity. This helps Hillary in a big way. She's going to run against Edwards, Feingold, Richardson, Kerry, and Duvall Patrick. She wins with relative ease against the divided field.

Romney avoids a challenge.

She runs on "It's the economy, stupid," and with Ohio Senator or Governor (not sure which he'd pick ITTL) Strickland, she wins by a small-ish margin in the Electoral College.

2016: Charlie Crist/Paul Ryan defeat Hillary Clinton/Ted Strickland

Charlie Crist, the Senator and former Governor of Florida, has been making a name for himself in Washington as a guy who can get things done. He moderates his stances, crosses the aisle when he has to, and has spent the past decade building up an undefeatable image. Vice-President Allen declines to run saying that he's "fallen out of love" with politics. Crists main opponents are Senator Fiorina, former Texas Governor Rick Perry, South Carolina senator Nikki Haley, and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Crist puts forth a solid performance in the early primary states thanks in large part to his superb organization. However, doubts remain about his conservatism so he picks former Representative and current Governor of Wisconsin Paul Ryan, a conservative hero for the bottom of the ticket.

Hillary is not challenged.

As Hillary's term in office has been mildly successful she's leading in the polls for the majority of the Republican Primaries. In the general election, Crist's telegenic personality makes the difference as he trounces Hillary in the debates. He is witty, charming, and best of all not a Democrat. I can't stress enough how tired people are of the Democrats in general, who have won five of the last six presidential elections, and the Clintons in particular. Crist wins the day.

Please understand that some of my choices weren't meant to be literal. I have no idea that Paul Ryan would even still be around politically speaking, and it's likely that Christie and Halley wouldn't have even been elected in this timeline. I don't know that Edwards would be all that great of a choice, although I'd imagine that if he was still around in 2008 he'd be a very attractive VP pick. There's just too may butterflies to even think clearly about an alternate 2012 with any kind of perspective, let alone 2016.

Still, hope you're pleased. Would love to hear your thoughts.
 
This seems very plausible, though I have seen strong arguments that Gore wouldn't get re-elected in 2004 before.

Why wouldn't he get re-elected? Wouldn't there be the same post 9-11 'rally 'round the President' sentiment that Bush got for a while?
 

d32123

Banned
Why wouldn't he get re-elected? Wouldn't there be the same post 9-11 'rally 'round the President' sentiment that Bush got for a while?

Some argue that Clinton and Gore would be blamed for not adequately responding to national security threats. Also, not sure how much the 9/11 boost actually helped Bush by 2004.
 
terrellk: I don't see Dole running in 2004. She ran for Senate in 2002 and that would prevent her from running in 2004 as a serious candidate, and if she doesn't run for President there's a good chance that she'll be brushed off with McCain being the presumptive nominee. I think she has a shot as running mate in 2004 and then I can see her running for (and maybe taking) the 2008 Nomination.

Just my thoughts.
 
2004: John McCain/Kay Bailey Hutchinson defeats Al Gore/Joe Lieberman

2008: Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh defeats John McCain/Kay Bailey Hutchinson

2012: Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh defeats George Allen/Mitch Daniels

2016: Mitch Daniels/Marco Rubio defeats Evan Bayh/Martha Coakley
 
2004
This would be an interesting year for the Republicans. McCain would run again, as would Guiliani. I'd think Guiliani would have a higher standing in the Republican Party, because 9/11 would've only been two years earlier by the time he declares his candidacy and because Republicans would praise Guiliani the Republican's response to 9/11 rather than Gore the Democrat's response to 9/11. Due to McCain and Guiliani being so liberal/moderate, I could see a conservative Republican like George Allen or Rick Santorum (maybe both) running to the right of the two front runners. Since Santorum ran for President in 2012 in OTL, I'd say he'd run. But McCain would still win, with Santorum finishing second and Guiliani fading early. As far as running mates, McCain might go with a woman like Elizabeth Dole or Kay Bailey Hutchinson. I say he picks Dole due to her connecitons with the GOP establishment.

In the general, McCain/Dole beats Gore/Lieberman due to the ongoing war in Afghanistan (not going too well) and Democratic fatigue. I don't see Iraq becoming a major issue here. The neocons would associate themselves with Guiliani in the primaries rather than McCain.

John McCain/Elizabeth Dole
defeats
Al Gore/Joe Lieberman (inc.)

2008
Hurricane Katrina, a worsening war in Afghanistan and an economic slowdow and eventual collapse see McCain's numbers drop going into 2008, but no Republican seriously challenges him in 2008. For the Democrats, there'd be even more of a Clinton/Gore era, so Hillary Clinton probably cruises into the primary over opponents like Barack Obama, John Edwards, Howard Dean and Joe Lieberman. She picks John Edwards as her running mate. Clinton/Edwards cruises over McCain/Dole. No Iraq War, so the nation isn't nearly as indebted and there's hope for the future in Afghanistan.

Hilary Clinton/John Edwards
defeats
John McCain/Elizabeth Dole

2012
For the GOP, Elizabeth Dole decliens to run for President. Guiliani declines to run, mostly because he's focusing on the Senate (he was elected to fill Clinton's vacant seat). Iraq is becoming an issue as the Arab Spring heats up, and Saddam Hussein is valiantly clinging to power despite an ongoing civil war. Iraq will probably be very similar to the situation in Syria, especially foreign policy-wise. There'd still be a Tea Party, especially after HillaryCare 2.0. Mitt Romney runs and is the early frontrunner, against Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee. Huckabee manages to win the nomination after the GOP decides that another moderate isn't the way to go. He picks Tea Party favorite and little-known Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.

Vice President John Edwards was forced to resign in 2009/2010 due to an extramarital affair and allegations that he used campaign funds to cover it up and pay child support. Clinton replaces him with Secretary of State Bill Richardson. But the damage has been done, and even though Afghanistan is finally turning a corner (OBL was killed in May 2010), the economy is still sluggish. Huckabee manages to beat Clinton in a close election.

Mike Huckabee/Sarah Palin
defeat
Hilary Clinton/Bill Richardson

Climate change and environmentalism and generally accepted by the majority of American politicians. U.S. troops are pulling out of Afghanistan by 2014. The neoconservatives are seeing a renaisance due to the Arab Spring, and the Huckabee campaign has been making noises about invading Iraq and overthrowing Saddam. As for George W. Bush, he serves as Governor of Texas until 2007 when he's replaced by Kay Bailey Hutchinson. He once again becomes an owner of the Texas Rangers in 2008, and eventually becomes the Commissioner of Baseball in 2014 after Bud Selig steps down. Dick Cheney becomes McCain's Secretary of Defense and is an advisor in the Huckabee White House, while Rumsfeld was McCain's Director of the CIA. Barack Obama winds up on the U.S. Supreme Court in the 2020's. Karl Rove heads up a powerful Republican super PAC (some things never change). John Huntsman is Huckabee's Secretary of State, though Deputy Secretary Paul Wolfowitz might have a few things to say about who's truly in charge down at Foggy Bottom.
 
2004
The 2004 Primary is a fight between Fred Thompson, John McCain, and Elizabeth Dole. With Gore winning in 2000, Dole decides to put herself on the lecture circuit rather than run for Senate in 2002. She continues to tour the nation delivering detailed policy addresses to position herself as a Presidential candidate. Former Senator Thompson is concerned about making sure a true conservative is elected and throws his hat into the bid. He fights hard but loses the Iowa Straw Poll to Dole. By the time of the Iowa Caucuses Dole takes a narrow victory (think Santorum v. Romney) over Fred Thompson while pulling a closer-than-expected second to McCain in South Carolina. It becomes clear that unless Dole or Thompson exits before South Carolina McCain will win so Dole offers him a position at the bottom of her ticket (which is never made public) and he accepts, giving Dole the momentum needed to secure a win in South Carolina. As the primary process continues Dole emerges the winner.

While Gore is not seriously challenged there is some question of whether he and his Vice President are maintaining a working relationship. Since the 9/11 attacks on the country Lieberman was actively supportive of an invasion of Iraq, but Gore never acted on it. The rumors of party in-fighting prove an annoying distraction but nonetheless the two are nominated at the convention. Dole and Gore fight hard in the General Election with Dole talking seriously about education reform (specifically: technology in the classroom) and promoting a healthier national defense. In the end, it's enough to win. Party fatigue, Dole's down-to-earth style, and the attacks on Gore for not protecting social security are enough to ensure a respectable Republican victory.

Elizabeth Dole & Fred Thompson
defeats
Al Gore & Joe Lieberman


2008
With big majorities in the House and Senate for the first half of her term, Dole is successful in passing her education plan and social security reform. Her ambitious agenda gains the respect of Independents, but with national security still largely ignored a second terrorist attack occurs (though not to the scale of the 9/11 attacks) which prompts Dole to fight back, stepping-up troop involvement in Afghanistan and announcing air strikes on Iran and Pakistan. She appears tough on terrorism and with the death of Osama bin Laden in January 2007 she is seen as a popular figure in the eyes of the American public.

Democrats put forth a mediocre field of candidates with John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, and Russ Feingold (among other lesser-knowns). Though Lieberman began as the front runner his support falls as Kerry and Feingold accuse him of being too conservative. Lieberman wins the Iowa Caucuses, nonetheless, and Feingold finishes second. In New Hampshire Kerry wins but Feingold and Lieberman are so close behind they end up with the same amount of delegates. In Nevada Feingold wins causing Richardson and Edwards to drop their bids for President. With the field reduced to three major candidates the race heads to South Carolina where Lieberman wins. Just before Super Tuesday Kerry withdraws, but openly admits he won't endorse either of the remaining candidates. In a long-fought primary battle Feingold edges out Lieberman and chooses Evan Bayh as his running mate to attract more moderate Democrats and Independents but the drawn-out primary coupled with Dole's strong fundraising advantage (and the power of incumbency) provides the President with a comfortable reelection.

Elizabeth Dole & Fred Thompson
defeat
Russ Feingold & Evan Bayh


2012
Dole's second term was considerably worse than her first term. Now dealing with a Democratic Congress (thanks to declining Republican enthusiasm) Dole is forced to deal with the headaches of a divided government. Eventually she pulls troops out of Afghanistan, which provides a boost to her numbers, but in January 2015 the economy begins to slip into a mild recession (nothing like the RL 2008 one) and she's unable to do much about it, she'll eventually leave office with a 37% approval rating though in only a short amount of time people will look at the accomplishments of her first term and realize there was nothing else she could've done to prevent the recession.

The Republicans have a primary fight between Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Paul Ryan. With the number one issue being the economy, Romney is able to secure victory. He selects outgoing Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona as his running mate.

In 2012 the number one issue is the economy and that's the issue that Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Ted Strickland are forced to deal with. Eventually Strickland's appeal as a rust belt governor gets him the New Hampshire Primary while Clinton wins the Iowa Caucuses the weak before. However two big endorsements (Russ Feingold and Al Gore) catapult Obama back into the national conversation, giving him South Carolina (though Strickland still wins Nevada). Hillary withdraws after Super Tuesday and backs Strickland, giving him enough momentum to take the nomination. He decides to choose Brian Schweitzer as his running mate.The Democrats win by a comfortable margin.

Ted Strickland & Brian Schweitzer
defeat
Mitt Romney & Jon Kyl
 
I'm not sure about the viability of a second Bush so soon after the loss of W, but there's not really an equivalent American example (Ted Kennedy, but that situation had many unique factors). There are people hankering for Jeb even in OTL's 2012 and 2016, so it's not implausible, I suppose.

I think having an entirely different President and no Iraq War certainly butterflies the Arab Spring (which had a lot to do the economic and political fallout of the Bush administration), and could very plausibly butterfly Obama 2004. There were all kinds of factors there - and his opposition to the Iraq War was one of his big selling points (ironic considering his latter day struggles to keep troops there).

I also think a Gore Presidency - or McCain, or anyone with a competent focus on national security - means no 9/11, which of course has massive effects.
 
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