Flying Fortress over Formosa

Japhy

Banned
In the hours before the initial Japanese attacks on the Philippines MacArthur failed to order his B-17's of the Far East Air Force to launch attacks that were planned as part of the Rainbow 5 Plan. As a result these bombers were fueled, loaded and waiting for the go-code at Clark Field along with the majority of the FEAF's P-40's and P-35's when the Japanese attacked, and like that the majority of American Air Power in the Philippines were almost completely lost.

My question is, what if the Bombers had taken off in the hours between the No Drill Message from Pearl Harbor and the Japanese Arrival over Clark Field?

35 Bombers without escort, aimed at Formosa air fields have about as much a chance as the B-17's who flew to Germany unprotected in 1942-43. But hitting the air fields will certainly damage Japanese plans for taking the Philippine Islands by weakening their air cover for the initial landings. In addition not being caught on their runways the Bombers can land at the auxiliary airfields that dot the islands and continue to fight.

But besides that, news of the raid, bound to be exaggerated and dramatized, will be arriving stateside at the same time as the details of the Trans-Pacific Disaster are arriving. How will the initial American views and morale on the war change with the news of this daring counter-blow?
 
35 Bombers without escort, aimed at Formosa air fields have about as much a chance as the B-17's who flew to Germany unprotected in 1942-43.

Didn't the german's have a radar net in place? Far as I know the Japanese didn't.

You might want to dig up Pacific War Redux. There us Ami's are much better prepared for the Japanese. I vaguely remember a war of attrition that while it grinds down the american air power in the region, utterly screwed the japanese timetable.
 

Japhy

Banned
Didn't the german's have a radar net in place? Far as I know the Japanese didn't.

You might want to dig up Pacific War Redux. There us Ami's are much better prepared for the Japanese. I vaguely remember a war of attrition that while it grinds down the american air power in the region, utterly screwed the japanese timetable.

No Radar but the B-17's would be flying over an area that's got quite a few Japanese ships steaming for Luzon, and Japanese aircraft going the opposite direction. Good chances of getting detected before they make it to the target. And then the whole daylight bombing thing going against them in general.

Pacific War Redux is a great timeline, but CalBear had some POD's well before the start of the war, different situation, I'm just wondering what happens with the pieces that are already in place on December 8th as per OTL.
 
I'm not sure how good Japanese fighters would be in the anti-bomber role since they used the much smaller 30 mm bullets.

But then at that time our bombers didnt have the improved bombsights so I doubt they would actually hit their target.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
35 bombers wouldn't have changed the eventual outcome, not with General Egotistical Knothead in command of the Island's defenses, but it would have been a rude shock to the Japanese. Had the FEAAF taken off as soon as they were armed post warning of the Pearl Harbor attack they would have arrived over the Formosa primary airbase just as the cloud cover was finished burning off. They would have caught the Japanese aircraft at the most vulnerable moment, as the were fully fueled, armed and massed in preparation for takeoff.

It is difficult to compare the experience of the B-17 over Europe with the any action against the Japanese. There is simply no comparison between the Fw-190 and Bf-109G-2 (especially once the R-6 20mm cannon kit was installed under each wing, not to mention the G-6 when the 7.7mm MG were replaced with the 13mm guns) and the Zero in terms of hitting power or performance at 20K, much less in the relative ability of the aircraft to absorb punishment. The ability to take punishment is important, even with the early B-17D, given the robust armament of the bomber (one of the oft overlooked facts about the duels over Germany is that B-17s accounted for more German fighter losses than any other type of Allied aircraft)

It is worth noting the A6M Model 21 in 1941 only carried 60 20mm rounds per gun (120 total) while a 109 with R-6 kit installed carried 200 rpg for the nose gun and 135 rpg for each wing gun (470 total). The Fw-190A-3 had 250 RPG for each inboard 20mm and 145 RPG for each outboard gun (790 total). The Japanese Type 99 cannon was also decidedly inferior to the German MG 151 cannon in rate of fire (520 RPM vs. 740 RPM), which is an important factor since RPM usually translates fairly well to chance of rounds hitting a target. Since the 7.7mm machine guns carried by the A6M proved to be almost completely ineffective against any sort of armor, the very low number of cannon rounds carried by the A6M, and its slower rate of fire are rather critical weaknesses.


In the hours before the initial Japanese attacks on the Philippines MacArthur failed to order his B-17's of the Far East Air Force to launch attacks that were planned as part of the Rainbow 5 Plan. As a result these bombers were fueled, loaded and waiting for the go-code at Clark Field along with the majority of the FEAF's P-40's and P-35's when the Japanese attacked, and like that the majority of American Air Power in the Philippines were almost completely lost.

My question is, what if the Bombers had taken off in the hours between the No Drill Message from Pearl Harbor and the Japanese Arrival over Clark Field?

35 Bombers without escort, aimed at Formosa air fields have about as much a chance as the B-17's who flew to Germany unprotected in 1942-43. But hitting the air fields will certainly damage Japanese plans for taking the Philippine Islands by weakening their air cover for the initial landings. In addition not being caught on their runways the Bombers can land at the auxiliary airfields that dot the islands and continue to fight.

But besides that, news of the raid, bound to be exaggerated and dramatized, will be arriving stateside at the same time as the details of the Trans-Pacific Disaster are arriving. How will the initial American views and morale on the war change with the news of this daring counter-blow?
 
based on what I read in "At Dawn We Slept" and "Ragged Rugged Warriors" (excellent reads by the way), as well as other more general surveys, I think best case, the American bombers manage to catch a some Japanese planes on the ground. The Japanese do not have radar, and the main reason that the Japanese did not attack earlier in the day on December 8, but instead after lunch (at Clark Field) is because they had problems with weather in Formosa. Heavy fog delayed take offs for several hours and quotes from Japanese sources indicate that they were indeed worried that the Americans might indeed show up while the Japanese air strikes were still stuck on the ground waiting for the fog to clear.

Of course more likely is that the B17s would have flown around Formosa and dropped their bombs on targets of opportunity and done little damage. It may or may not have prolonged the B17 force though as it may not then have been parked on the ground at Clark Field when the Japanese do show up. The P40 force would still have the same problem though... about half was on the ground refueling while the other half was in the air and low on fuel when the Japanese did show up, and then outnumbered at the decisive point was overwhelmed.

The important requirement then is that the weather is good in Formosa just in time for the B17s to get a good target but delaying the Japanese strike long enough for much of it to be caught on the ground AND American command failures that prevented the strike from being launched in a timely manner are also overcome.

Calbear did an excellent look at that by the way
 
The Japanese were grounded due to fog, waiting for the USAAF to hit them at their most vulnerable. If the B-17's show up while the fog is still thick I don't see them finding the island, much less hitting anything. And they can't just hang around waiting for it to lift.

If the fog lifts the Japanese are off the ground within half an hour. That's a pretty small window to hit, meaning the B-17's bomb empty fields and come back to find theirs bombed.

And once again the confusing question. Dugout Doug refused to let General Brereton fly any recon missions against Formosa before the outbreak of hostilities. Yet several B-17 pilots swear they had complete details of the Formosan airfields for that mission. So, were any prewar recon missions flown and, if so, who flew them and when?
 
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