Florida remains Spanish

WI Florida stays in the Spanish Empire during the early 19th Century? Would the US invade the peninsula, would a "Floridian-Cuban Federation" emerge in 1898 or Miami would be the capital of the "Republica de la Florida"?
 
It might end up seeing hundreds of thousands of Americans pouring across its border (legally and otherwise) and setting up shop. Exaggeration perhaps, but Spain would have to pour resources into combating filibusters.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
All it took was this individual:

20-Charles-Willson-Peale-Andrew-Jackson-1819.jpg


And the Spanish ratified the Adams-Onis Treaty in about as long as it takes to say "Adams-Onis Treaty"...

Best,
 
WI Florida stays in the Spanish Empire during the early 19th Century? Would the US invade the peninsula, would a "Floridian-Cuban Federation" emerge in 1898 or Miami would be the capital of the "Republica de la Florida"?
Maybe anti Spanish sentiment in the United States become stronger. They were in otl not happy with a Spanish Cuba, they would even be less happy with any territory that made up the US in reality under Spanish control after 1830, especially because the threat to the American security would be worse.
Perhaps, an earlier Spanish American War over Florida and Cuba or US interventions in Cuban [and Floridan] insurrections. If the war still happens in 1898, the US would invade the peninsula. Of course, Florida would be a higher priority than Cuba because it is closer, and more importantly, on the mainland. But, it might be enough for the Spanish to win because they can ship more reinforcements to Cuba and the US would need to be fighting in Florida for months and blockading it before taking Cuba, presuming the Spaniards utilize their navy properly [almost certainly expanded compared to otl] and send adequate troops and supplies to Cuba [Florida would soon be lost anyway and Puerto Rico is not so important]. The US might cancel its invasion of Spanish Philippines and Guam to gain more troops and ships. This might result in the colonies gaining independence [for the Philippines] or sold to other powers [especially Germany].
Maybe Florida would try to declare independence, but no Florida Cuba Union. Or, if this happens, expect the Cuba Missle Crisis to escalarate into a full scale war as the US might invade Florida and risk war with Cuba. [Assuming butterflies don't create many problems].
 
Maybe anti Spanish sentiment in the United States become stronger. They were in otl not happy with a Spanish Cuba, they would even be less happy with any territory that made up the US in reality under Spanish control after 1830, especially because the threat to the American security would be worse.
Perhaps, an earlier Spanish American War over Florida and Cuba or US interventions in Cuban [and Floridan] insurrections. If the war still happens in 1898, the US would invade the peninsula. Of course, Florida would be a higher priority than Cuba because it is closer, and more importantly, on the mainland. But, it might be enough for the Spanish to win because they can ship more reinforcements to Cuba and the US would need to be fighting in Florida for months and blockading it before taking Cuba, presuming the Spaniards utilize their navy properly [almost certainly expanded compared to otl] and send adequate troops and supplies to Cuba [Florida would soon be lost anyway and Puerto Rico is not so important]. The US might cancel its invasion of Spanish Philippines and Guam to gain more troops and ships. This might result in the colonies gaining independence [for the Philippines] or sold to other powers [especially Germany].
Maybe Florida would try to declare independence, but no Florida Cuba Union. Or, if this happens, expect the Cuba Missle Crisis to escalarate into a full scale war as the US might invade Florida and risk war with Cuba. [Assuming butterflies don't create many problems].

And what about a "Republica de Florida" evolution during the 20th century? A giant Cuba?
 
Florida would need a lot more Spanish settlers to remain Spanish. In OTL hardly any ever came. It was barely populated by whites at all when the U.S. took it over in 1819, and did not gain enough residents for statehood until 1845. As late as 1900, it had only 500,000 residents, and that was after eight decades of U.S. rule/settlement, when people could simply move overland across the border. I don't know what its population would have been like if it had remained Spanish all that time.

The other issue - and the biggest reason why the U.S. wanted to annex Florida in the first place - was that it was the home base of the hostile Seminole nation, which was at war with the U.S. from about 1814 onward. Annexing Florida allowed the U.S. to take the fight to the Seminoles and finally defeat them. It would be hard to imagine how Washington would tolerate continued Spanish rule in Florida when it effectively amounted to safe harbor for an enemy nation.
 
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Razgriz 2K9

Banned
The other issue - and the biggest reason why the U.S. wanted to annex Florida in the first place - was that it was the home base of the hostile Seminole nation, which was at war with the U.S. from about 1814 onward. Annexing Florida allowed the U.S. to take the fight to the Seminoles and finally defeat them. It would be hard to imagine how Washington would tolerate continued Spanish rule in Florida when it effectively amounted to safe harbor for an enemy nation.

They wouldn't...in fact, it wouldn't have been surprising for a Spanish-American War to occur some 70 years earlier than OTL had Spain kept Florida. Now while I do not know how powerful the U.S. Navy would've been, would it have led to a American takeover of Cuba earlier than OTL? I see it as fairly likely.
 
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