Flight Life of the Arrow...

Sachyriel

Banned
...what?

You're talking about civilian airliners landing on the deck of an aircraft carrier, rather than on pacific islands? Where are you getting this from?

Short flights means smaller planes, smaller planes and moveable landing strips mean avoiding bad weather.

Why would Canada even try to invest in the construction of aircraft carriers instead of British or American castoffs? They're there for the taking at this point, and will be right up through the decommissioning of the Forrestal-class in the early 90's. (Though Forrestal would be rather large for Canada to try to man).

Lastly, what's any of this got to do with the Arrow? Avro'd probably do better to start over from scratch in designing a carrier-based aircraft, or maybe along the lines of developing the F/A-18 from the F-17 project.

I don't know, maybe they would buy already made classes.

Also you weren't paying attention during my sleight of hand trick with the money. That means it works. ;)
 
Riain pretty much hit the nail on the head as far as the cost goes. The RCAF was not THAT poor back then, and besides that, the Arrow would have been one of the best interceptors in the world at the time, which means that foreign sales would have been almost a certainty, and there could have been some big customers for it, too - the RAF and JASDF being two air forces in the market for good interceptors at the time, and both of those orders would have been substantial. Then add other potential orders (I can see those from Australia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, South Africa, Israel, Germany and Belgium) to the list and you'd see that unit cost drop like a rock, thus making RCAF unit costs lower, too. And besides that, the Arrow was a major project for Canada, and the politics would almost certainly dictate that if the thing was viable, to build it and put it in service.
 
Riain pretty much hit the nail on the head as far as the cost goes. The RCAF was not THAT poor back then, and besides that, the Arrow would have been one of the best interceptors in the world at the time, which means that foreign sales would have been almost a certainty, and there could have been some big customers for it, too - the RAF and JASDF being two air forces in the market for good interceptors at the time, and both of those orders would have been substantial. Then add other potential orders (I can see those from Australia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, South Africa, Israel, Germany and Belgium) to the list and you'd see that unit cost drop like a rock, thus making RCAF unit costs lower, too. And besides that, the Arrow was a major project for Canada, and the politics would almost certainly dictate that if the thing was viable, to build it and put it in service.

I could see an RAF buy, but then what does the RN do, still buy F4s? As for the others, I don't know, politically they are closely tied to great powers or don't have the need for such a powerful fighter with little dual role capacity. The RAAF Mirages were in 2 variants, one tailored more toward ground attack rather than air to air, and the Arrow would be too expensive and complex for the limited GA capability it would provide. I for one would much rather risk a cheaparse Mirage III on strafing, rocket and dumb bomb attacks in South East Asia than a red-hot $12 million Arrow with similar payloads.
 
I could see an RAF buy, but then what does the RN do, still buy F4s? As for the others, I don't know, politically they are closely tied to great powers or don't have the need for such a powerful fighter with little dual role capacity. The RAAF Mirages were in 2 variants, one tailored more toward ground attack rather than air to air, and the Arrow would be too expensive and complex for the limited GA capability it would provide. I for one would much rather risk a cheaparse Mirage III on strafing, rocket and dumb bomb attacks in South East Asia than a red-hot $12 million Arrow with similar payloads.

What I am thinking for the British is that they retire the V-bombers early and reduce their Navy forces earlier, leaving the stuff that is left being a high quality. The RAF buys the Arrow for interceptor duties and F-111K (or maybe the TSR.2 ;)) for strike duties, leaving the RN to have the latest F-4 and Buccaneer variants.

As far as the RAAF goes, what I was thinking there is the Arrow would have external hardpoints fitted, allowing considerably greater payload. I was thinking less carrying dumb bombs and more carrying Maverick, Shrike and Harpoon missiles, and maybe later on TV-guided missiles and the like. I agree that on lower-altitude missions the Arrow probably wouldn't be as much use, as it would be too risky to use it in this role. The aforementioned missiles entered service in the early 1970s, and being as close to the US as Australia is, I can see them getting those missiles very early on.
 
We're pretty slow to pick stuff up, I don't think the Mirages had any guided air to surface munitions at all and they didn't get replaced until 1984-8. Presumably the RAAF would get Arrows in lieu of Mirages between 1964-8 and as they are both more expensive and capable they'd stay in service for about another 5 years, until 1989-94, so perhaps they'd get an late 70s early 80s major upgrade which would include a suite of guided air to surface munitions. I'd still be wary of using them on the dodgy attack missions we'd presumably planned to do in SEA between 1964 and 1994.

What a combo the Arrow and TSR2 would make, with the Harrier bulking out the rest of the RAF.
 

Al-Buraq

Banned
Something that gets missed in the romance of the Arrow conspiracy is that Avro developed unparalled knowledge of the working of titanium while developing the plane. A knowledge that was lost at cancellation and picked up for a song by the US aircraft industry and later used to good effect in the F4 Phantom and the YF-11A.
Regarding the RN purchase of the Phantom. Neither the RN or the RAF wanted it. They wanted the HAwker P1154--the "Super Harrier". The RN ordered the Phantom when the P1154 was cancelled in 1964.
 
Another thing lost to the US was the Astra technology paid for by the Canadian taxpayer and added to the development cost of the Arrow, and then installed on the nose of the F-4 Phantom as the APQ-72. And for the low low price of 1 million bucks. Cheap, huh?
 

MacCaulay

Banned
(I can see those from Australia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, South Africa, Israel, Germany and Belgium) to the list and you'd see that unit cost drop like a rock, thus making RCAF unit costs lower, too.

I totally agree. In Saudi Arabia's case, the Arrow would be a qualitative leap over the Lightning. No offense, Brits, but it's true.

And with South Africa, there's a possible avenue of new aircraft that they never had before. What's better: a Mirage you've got to beg parts for or an Arrow you can pay for with gold when ever you want more? I'd take the Arrow.

And with Germany...Arrows are better than Lawndarts any day of the week.

The RAAF Mirages were in 2 variants, one tailored more toward ground attack rather than air to air, and the Arrow would be too expensive and complex for the limited GA capability it would provide. I for one would much rather risk a cheaparse Mirage III on strafing, rocket and dumb bomb attacks in South East Asia than a red-hot $12 million Arrow with similar payloads.

But the Mirage III was initially designed to be an interceptor as well, remember? All that dogfighting over Sinai and the Golan has people forgetting just what Dassault made that thing for. Just because the Mirage III turned into a good dogfighter doesn't mean that's what it was designed for.

The Arrow could be turned into an attack plane as well. That's the easiest thing to turn an aircraft into, until you start talking about look down/shoot down radar. And that wasn't on the table yet.

Also, there were already Arrow variants on the drawing board. It's not a huge leap to think Avro wouldn't make adjustments to secure an export buy. That's not ASB, that's common sense. If the French, Americans, Brits, and Russians have done it, then why not the Canadians?
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Has anyone done a straightup story or TL about the Arrow? It strikes me no one has actually just sat down and decided to do one centering on that aircraft.
 
Something that gets missed in the romance of the Arrow conspiracy is that Avro developed unparalled knowledge of the working of titanium while developing the plane. A knowledge that was lost at cancellation and picked up for a song by the US aircraft industry and later used to good effect in the F4 Phantom and the YF-11A.
Regarding the RN purchase of the Phantom. Neither the RN or the RAF wanted it. They wanted the HAwker P1154--the "Super Harrier". The RN ordered the Phantom when the P1154 was cancelled in 1964.

No, the RAF wanted P.1154 & TSR-2, The Royal Navy wanted CVA-01, a/k/a the Queen Elizabeth class "supercarrier", at all costs...
As a result of this, the "senior service" effectively sabotaged any programme that was not CVA-01, including P.1154 (which it had ever been built, would have been 2 almost completely different aircraft, with extremely limited communality, with each other's version), TSR-2, the "Thin Wing" improved Buccaneer, capable of Mach 1.2, & even a proposed avionics upgrade for Buccaneer, to ensure that CVA-01 would enter service...
Unfortunately for the Royal Navy, the economic crisis of late 1967-early 1968, ensured that CVA-01 was cancelled...
 
There was unquestionably domestic politics involved as well: you need a Liberal government in Canada and a Tory one in Britain, both of which require PODs of their own. Not many know this, but St-Laurent had already ordered a cost review just prior to the 1957 election. If the Liberals win a minority (majority is impossible at that stage), then they will have to team up with the CCF, who will be opposed to increased defense spending. Which means you have to wait until another election in 1959 or 1960 with a new Liberal PM.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
The decision to cancel Arrow was right it would have end up like the F-22A

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaoYz90giTk

The two have very little in common as far as economics go. The F-22 is chock full of stuff that can't be exported. The skin, the avionics, the weapons, the list goes on.
But the Canadians weren't constrained by that. The Arrow was an interceptor that could easily become something like the Mirage III in it's multirole capacity if it was put into production, and they could export all of it.

I can hear the question: "But what about the missiles, Mac? Those are American missiles, and (insert "America torpedoes the deal" stuff)!"

Simple...the Canadians bring back the Velvet Glove semi-active radar homing missile and redesign it for the Arrow provided they get some sort of buy in from any country that wants to buy it. The large problem there was the size of the control surfaces, so it's a question of upsizing the missile a bit.

Every problem that could possibly come up here could be and has been overcome by every other country in the aircraft production and export market, including Canada.
People seem to forget that Canadair made the definitive version of the Sabre and the predecessor to the Arrow was the CF-100 Canuck, which was an actual production fighter.

The Canadian aerospace industry could solve these problems if there was a paycheck at the end of the road waiting for them. Heck, that's why they left for NASA when the money dried up at Avro.
 
They could also turn to britain for help with missiles, Firestreak and especially Red Top were pretty good for the time and I think they had radar versions on the drawing board.
 
The problem with exporting the Arrow is that they tried in OTL, desperately before it even went into production. They saw as clearly as we do now, that the Arrow needed export contracts in order to be a viable project. Initial attempts to sell the Arrow spanned all of NATO and were summarily turned down by all potential buyers. When it became apparent that nobody was going to buy the Arrow, efforts focused on trying to get the US, the only nation with the demand for such a plane and the financial wherewithal to buy it, to sign on. This move however, failed as well due to the strength of the American domestic aircraft industry and the pull it had on the American government.

Considering the dismal fate of the OTL attempts to sell the Arrow, I have a hard time seeing how it would succeed in TTL, even if the Arrow goes into production. The facts remain that the Arrow was much more expensive than the other export fighters on the market at the time. This coupled with it's specialization as a long-range interceptor (not something that everyone needs) made it less than popular as an export fighter.
 
I don't see the problem as price and capability, plenty of countries have bought weapons that appear baffling in the circumstances, but more of Canada's lack of political influence in the world. At the time if you bought US, British, French you were aligning yourself with a great power more or less. If you bought the Arrow you are aligning yourself with Canada, who can offer you no veto on the UNSC, and virtually no other weapons system.

What about a TL where the OTL 4th Empire with joint projects is stronger and more comprehensive? Where the RAF, RAAF and RCAF are basically clones of one another using Arrow, TSR2 and Harrier, the development of the Arrow on behalf of the Commonwealth is Canadas contribution to the koint projects. The non partners buying into the Arrow would be buying into the Commonwealth where they have the support of Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc and buy most of their gear from theis crew.
 
It seems to me the big reason the Arrow failed was being too ambitious. If the TV movie is remotely accurate (by no means certain), Crawford Gordon's insistence on having an all-Canadian bird crippled the program. So suppose instead Canadair had accepted J75s & OTS Sparrows &/or 'winders? And offered export Arrows to Saudi (I really like that), Israel, Japan, ROC (Taiwan), South Africa, India...with a build-there licence deal as a sweetener, if needed. I don't expect a unit price of C$12 mil to last; I think that's the as-built price, not a price had production actually commenced.

One other option: offer a dedicated hi-speed recce bird, resembling the Blackbird...
 

MacCaulay

Banned
I don't see the problem as price and capability, plenty of countries have bought weapons that appear baffling in the circumstances, but more of Canada's lack of political influence in the world. At the time if you bought US, British, French you were aligning yourself with a great power more or less. If you bought the Arrow you are aligning yourself with Canada, who can offer you no veto on the UNSC, and virtually no other weapons system.

There's something to be said with that. I do think you're on to something.

But some countries weren't approached that might be interested. South Africa and India spring to mind as countries that weren't looking for favours but needed reliable aircraft.

Also, I've been looking up some books here in my spare time and I can't find too much of an effort on the part of Avro to spark interest with the Aussies. Perhaps the RAAF might have been a good choice, as they have always seemed more pragmatic than political in their choices.


It seems to me the big reason the Arrow failed was being too ambitious. If the TV movie is remotely accurate (by no means certain), Crawford Gordon's insistence on having an all-Canadian bird crippled the program. So suppose instead Canadair had accepted J75s & OTS Sparrows &/or 'winders?

The Arrow was talked up as having Sparrow IIIs, I believe. The reasoning behind that was that the indigenous Canadian missile, the Velvet Glove, was too small to be reliably controllable if it was launched at Mach 2. Now...they never tested that, but it was the expectation of practically the entire Canadian aerospace industry.
 
The Arrow was built to specification of the RCAF, and paid for by the Canadian government. Export contracts weren't an option of Avro Canada. It would be up to the Canadian government. The closest comparison would be when the F-20 Tigershark was offered for sale by the US State Dept. Britain was interested, due to the lackluster and troublesome Javelin, but not enough to deal with the Canadian government.

An interesting point is that many countries today buy aircraft based on technology transfer. That is, that by building by license, they can develop a home industry. Canada was creating new technology, at a time when technology needed inventing.

Steve-Martin-and-his-banj-001.jpg
 
There's something to be said with that. I do think you're on to something.

But some countries weren't approached that might be interested. South Africa and India spring to mind as countries that weren't looking for favours but needed reliable aircraft.

Also, I've been looking up some books here in my spare time and I can't find too much of an effort on the part of Avro to spark interest with the Aussies. Perhaps the RAAF might have been a good choice, as they have always seemed more pragmatic than political in their choices.

Isn't everybody looking for favours?

In 1958/9 our Avon Sabres were right in the middle of their life, I doubt much thought had been given to its successor to be introduced in 1964-6. By the time we got thinking about that the Arrow was long gone.

A tidy little arrangement between the Commonwealth could have produced some serious hardware as long as all players played the game.
 
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