In the early years, the Taliban's goal was to gain international recognition from neighboring countries like China and Pakistan. However, as time wore on and the year 2027 struck, it's leadership became more pragmatic about the situation: all of Afghanistan, not just the government, was on the verge of collapse:
A major refugee crisis, along with a nasty water dispute with Iran had provoked an iron silence and tension with the Islamic Republic. To the east, the Taliban had been unable to control the Tehreek-e-Taliban, and it's Pakistani section developed into a splinter faction. As a result, terrorist attacks continued to aggravate relations with Pakistan, one of it's main trading partners. To the North, Tajikistan and the other central Asian countries continued to designate the Taliban as an illegitimate government. Only China remained to support them, and if they stopped, Afghanistan would fall apart like a house of cards in a tornado.
Central and South-Central Asia over the course of the 2020's experienced an unforeseen rise in nationalism. Former communist-party leaders in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan had been overthrown in violent revolutions, and though the primary goal of these revolutions were to renew the state, many wanted to expand into ethnically-similar lands in Afghanistan and other nations: For example, a good portion of eastern Afghanistan, including up to the capital, Kabul, is inhabited by the Tajiks, while Uzbeks dominate the north.
This wave of nationalism had also struck Pakistan with especial brutality. After years of political turmoil after the fall of Imran Khan, the Punjabi and Balochi sections of the country began to experience constant terrorist attacks and even guerrilla warfare from separatist groups (some of whom were based in Afghanistan, worsening relations further). At this point, China was at a loss. Pakistan was completely washed up. Their Gwadar Corridor plan had almost worked, but in the end, Pakistan had proven to be an unstable ally, with Prime Ministers that rotated in and out of office rapidly. China needed a new economic plan to circumvent India.
The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was at the end of it's luck. Pakistan was on the brink of civil war, Iran was hostile and now eyeing some of it's southern, Balochi-majority lands along with Persian-speaking Herat , and China was just about done with the Gwadar plan, of which the economic runoff and surplus trade would have undoubtedly benefited Afghanistan. After the revolutions in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, anti-Taliban separatist forces began to wreak havoc in the North through Guerilla warfare.
The Taliban, who had banned Opium production in 2023, were also out of money to control such a large and ethnically diverse state. They maintained a strong grip over most of the cities, but were unable to fully vanquish the rebels, just as the U.S. was unable to fully vanquish the Taliban in the War in Afghanistan. While China brainstormed for another plan to connect a trade corridor to the West Indian Ocean, time ate away at Afghanistan.
But in 2031, the status quo was irreversibly changed. As a result of a disputed election of Pakistan's prime minister between a Pashtun and a Sindhi, civil war erupted, with the insurgent armies of Balochistan and Punjabistan quickly declaring independence. The Pashtun sections of the country sought unity with Afghanistan's Pashtuns as a result of nationalistic influence. Secretly given the go-ahead by China, Iran invaded Pakistani Balochistan, defeating both Pakistani and Balochi forces in a matter of weeks, though guerrilla conflicts and skirmishes continued. Meanwhile, India sent troops to Indian Punjab. At the same time, oddly well-armed rebels attacked in multiple areas in Afghanistan with uncanny precision and organization.
As it turned out, China had betrayed both Afghanistan and Pakistan, and had given arms and training to rebels of both countries. Their new economic plan saw a Plan A and a Plan B--Plan A was to work with the various successor states of Afghanistan and Pakistan that would undoubtedly need China's immense monetary resources. If this failed, Plan B was to use a strengthened Iran and Tajikistan to connect Gwadar in Balochistan with Eastern Afghanistan, and thus to China. Either way, Afghanistan as we know it would bite the dust.
Plan B was only for emergencies--China still wasn't quite sure how to deal with nationalism in Central Asia, whether to encourage it or to stamp it out. In the end, it didn't in a surprise attack, Tajikistan invaded Tajik-majority areas in northern Afghanistan in early 2031. A week later, Uzbekistan followed suit. The Islamic Emirate's armies were overstretched, and were pushed back a significant distance. Meanwhile, this time without China's consent, Iran invaded Balochi-majority areas in southern Afghanistan. The U.N. and NATO, as expected, condemned everything, but the U.S. was in no position (nor did it want to be) to interfere with Afghanistan ever again, especially distracted as they were by the Paracel Islands Standoff.
Over the next few years, wars and skirmishes without end would be fought in the region, but in the end, the forces at the end of 2033 would be:
- Iran, who had gotten everything they wanted, but were suffering from internal conflicts and had trouble controlling Balochistan. They cooperated with China's economic plan after the war.
- Herat, which Iran made an independent (yet also, dependent) state after invading the region, officially the "Republic of West Tajikistan" (since most Heratians were Tajiks).
- Tajikistan. They found initial success in the invasion of Afghanistan, but were eventually pushed back by the Pashtuns to a small area in the North, invalidating China's Plan B.
- Sindhudesh and Punjab, who had gained independence from Pakistan, but remained quite poor and depended on China, just as China had forseen in Plan A.
- Uzbekistan, who got most of what they wanted, taking a lot of ethnic land in the northwest of Afghanistan.
- And, finally, the...Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Or at least that was it's official name. For all intents and purposes, Afghanistan was gone, and what replaced it was a nation of mostly Pashtuns. The rulers of the Islamic Emirate had taken great care to intertwine their brand of radical Islam with the social and life code of the Pashtuns, the
Pashtunwali. This, in turn, developed into a kind of Pashtun-Islamic nationalism. Though the Islamic Emirate lost it's southern and much of it's northern provinces, it managed to unite with the Pashtuns of former Pakistan to form a new nation.
In the end, the borders were shifted to more properly reflect ethnic makeup. And in the process of this shifting, millions died. And, in the end, it was still China who held all the cards. And they never even fired a shot. All anyone outside of the region could do was watch, either in grim satisfaction or uninterested horror. In the future, Pashtunistan would become more successful than the Islamic Emirate. Deobandi Islam and the
Pashtunwali code held the country together. As the country became more compact, more pragmatic leaders of the country recognized Opium as a principal resource for the Pashtun economy, and a religious tax on the plant created huge profits for the government.
It is worth mentioning the Hazaras, a Persian-speaking ethnic group in Central Afghanistan, who had suffered the most during the war. Out of fears that the Hazaras might rebel, the Pashtun warriors of Afghanistan massacred many in what has become known as the Hazara Genocide. Along with casualties caused by wars with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, it is estimated that as many as 250,000 Hazaras were killed, many systematically by Islamic Emirate forces. In the end, many were forced into slave labor on the Opium farms of Pashtunistan.
One can refer to this ethnic map to discern the new nations of South-Central Asia: Pashtunistan managed to conquer most of the Pashtun-majority areas as well as the Hazaras. Iran conquered most of Balochistan in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, while the rest went to Sindistan. The tribal areas of northern former Pakistan became a battleground between Pashtunistan and Punjab, who conquered all of Pakistan's Punjab-majority land. Meanwhile, most of the yellow areas were conquered by Uzbekistan. Tajikistan was unable to conquer Afghanistan's ethnically-Tajik land and only got a small area in the north of the country, while Pashtunistan got the rest.
The Flag of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (Pashtunistan)
The flag of Pashtunistan reflects the attitudes of Pashtunistan towards the outside world: in the center lies a white, almost glowing stylized Mosque that stands for Islam, the holy fight against the infidel, and the purity of the Pashtun people before god. This image of cleanliness stands in defiance of the black, murky background that symbolizes the dark past that the Pashtuns are leaving behind and Pashtunistan's various enemies. In a sense, the Mosque is an open invitation to all who wish to build a new and hopeful future for Afghanistan. A separate variant of this flag exists that carries the colors of the Taliban, a majority of white and a Mosque of black; this flag is co-official with the first variant, but is used less often.
As for the symbolism, the Mosque has long been used as a symbol of Afghanistan, and thus it's historically Pashtun rulers. Afghanistan is well known for their heavy use of black on their flags, while the Taliban is known for it's heavy use of white. I wanted to create a flag that wouldn't use any writing and that would be simple to draw, and thus simple to remember. All other Afghanistan flags' Mosques are very complex, and I didn't want to continue this trend.
(by the way, this mosque is not a vector, but is actually created solely out of geometric shapes).
State Flag of Pashtunistan (2034-present)
"Taliban" Variant Flag of Pashtunistan (2034-present)