Five Elections and a Funeral - a TLIATD

Fit the Fourteenth - Part II

Islwyn, just after midnight

Neil Kinnock <on phone>: Well, Peter, I don't think we've got a majority, but it is looking decent. Any more news?

Peter Mandelson: We've just taken Pendle, but the swing isn't brilliant, just under 4%, but it really is all over the place.

NK: Is it regional, is there any factor?

PM: Too early to tell really, Neil, it's mainly our safer seats in

Alliance Gain Northavon from the Conservatives

NK: Did you see that on the BBC, Northavon, what's happening?

PM: I think Penhooligan is having a very good night in the South West, the swings else where look not so good for them and they are supposed to have good swings to us. Hyndburn - NOW

NK: YEEEES. Nice majority.

PM: Hmm, 6 percent swing, but it isn't enough for a majority, we need 8% and look at Basildon.

NK: We held it.

PM: We did, but with a 3 percent swing, that won't work well in the Southern marginals.

NK: But is one of ours, isn't that different? We've held South Shields.

PM: I would be very worried if we didn't.

Alliance Hold Portsmouth South

PM: Good grief, how big is that majority. Six thousand.

Alliance Hold Yeovil

NK: Not as big as Paddy's, Fifteen thousand. Here's Mellor.

PM: We haven't got it.

NK: I know, but it's the majority seat.

Conservative Hold Putney

PM: We've lost voteshare there, Christ.

NK: Swing against us?

Labour Hold Oldham West

PM: No, Tories have dropped more, but that's only a 1% swing.

NK: She's not going to get back in is she?

PM: Not with a majority, no, but more like that and she'll be the largest party.

NK: Christ. Anyway, I've got to get to the count, you OK in Hartlepool.

PM: I've only got a very small swing, but yes, 9,000 or so majority.

Truro, 1am

David Penhaligon: Paddy, this is magnificent.

Paddy Ashdown: It's very regional though, we aren't having much success outside of the South West. But yes, the swings are working in our favour in the South West, but it isn't as good as it could be.

DP: The tactical vote hasn't really increased.

PA: Straight switch from the Tories, very few squeezed votes from Labour.

Cherie Booth holds Sedgefield

DP: So who is going to be the largest party?

PA: I think it's going to be Labour, BBC still think that as well, but they have missed a fair few.

DP: Hmm and how many have we got

Alliance gain Somerton and Frome from the Conservatives

PA: Difficult, we are losing quite a few of those SDP seats that we took from Labour like Ashfield. Eighty odd.

DP: That's still brilliant, how many Owenites?

PA: Three - Owen, Cartwright and Cunningham and Cunningham is a bit more flexible than the others.

DP: You mean he's barely hung on again and needs every bit of help he can get.

Labour Hold Clydebank and Milngavie

PA: Yes, he might be a bit more cooperative.

Labour Hold Glasgow Springburn

DP: So, a deal with Neil

PA: They'll deal, but what for, we'll see how many they get, it could be 1974 all over again.

DP: I don't think he'll have enough, you need 300 for that sort of game.

Conservative Hold Tatton

PA: So coalition or confidence and supply

DP: I think I would prefer the latter, I don't trust Neil not to dump and run.

PA: The SDP will prefer it any way.

Labour tipped to gain Kingswood

DP: Owen will walk if we do a deal with Labour.

PA: Two or three won't matter.

Conservative Hold Battersea

DP: Just seen Battersea, a swing to the Tories

PA: That's gentrification for you.

Finchley, 2am

Margaret Thatcher: Norman, I'm glad you got here and congratulations on holding Chingford. What an awful speech Kinnock has made and to think in an hour or so I have to go on stage and congratulate that man.

Norman Tebbit: Looks like he will have more seats than us, but not that many more. Yes, he's an awful windbag, but he's an awful windbag with more seats than us.

Recount in Brighton, Kemptown

MT: Probably, but the Liberals are the Kingmakers, yes.

NT: Looks like they could put either of us in. We can't be certain.

Teddy Taylor Holds Southend, East

MT: But they won't put me in will they?

NT: No, Margaret, they won't, but they might put Ken in.

MT: You are going to tell me it is for the good of the party.

Labour Hold Pontypridd

NT: For the good of the country.

Conservative Hold Bexleyheath

MT: They'll want proportional representation.

NT: Days like this I wouldn't disagree with them.

Conservative Hold Monmouth

MT: Norman! We lost Monmouth in the by-election.

NT: We did, but BBC only counts from the last election.

MT: Ahh, so we've won it back, good. Why wouldn't you disagree with PR

NT: Oh I still disagree with it, but if Labour are going to get more seats than us with three or four percent less votes and the poor old Alliance might get thirty percent again and only have what 75 seats according to the BBC, there's something not right.

Labour Gain Warrington South from Conservative

MT: I thought that was down to the boundaries.

NT: Our problem is, partly yes. But even we redrew them after every election

MT: The activists wouldn't like that.

Labour Gain Birmingham Northfield

NT: I don't blame then, but their turnout is lower, so we can get more votes and still lose.

MT: Still no excuse for PR. It will lead to permanent coalitions.

NT: I agree, but three out of kilter results, wouldn't it be best to offer something that we like and deliver it rather than wait for the inevitable.

Conservatives Hold Gravesham

MT: It's weak, it's running away from strong government

Conservatives Hold Wiltshire North

NT: And it's not going to be your problem any more.

Alliance Gain Eastbourne

MT: Well, poor, poor Ian's seat didn't come back to us. Well, I don't think the party will stand for it, Norman, nor do I think that the Labour party will stand for it either.
 
Fit the Fourteenth - Part III

BBC Studio, 4am

David Dimbleby; Anthony, do we think this election is now decided.

Anthony King: I think there are two things about this election which might still change, although with each result that comes in it becomes less and less likely. It is still possible for the Conservatives to be the largest party, it is becoming unlikely, but it is still possible, however, I would expect that to be decided within the next hour or so when the last London seats come in.

DD: But Labour have made gains in London.

AK: Yes, they have, but not generally enough gains in London, they were supposed to have up to 21 possible gains in London, it was their path to a majority. They have gained 8 seats and there are 6 more to come.

Ken Livingstone holds Brent East

DD: Will they get all 6.

AK: I doubt it, but if they get 3, then I would say that they will be the largest party. However, if they had done as well in London as they have in say the East Midlands, then Labour would have been looking at a very small majority. However, had they done as well as they did in the South East national, then Margaret Thatcher would have a majority of 2.

Labour Gain Hampstead and Highgate from the Conservatives

DD: Glenda Jackson going into parliament there, was that one of your three Tony?

AK: Yes it was, but it is only a 4% swing. Labours Southern Problem is a disaster for them and may have cost them this election.

Conservative Hold - Dewsbury

DD: Now that surely should have fallen.

AK: One of the smallest swings of the night, less than 1%.

DD: What is the other problem.

John Major holds Huntingdonshire

AK: Well, I didn't believe it myself, so I have had it checked and this is more likely to happen than not. If Labour win the largest number of seats, they are likely to do so with the lowest share of the vote of the three main parties. it seems that the Alliance will probably beat Labour in terms of vote share for the third time.

Tim Renton holds Mid-Sussex

DD: <shakes head> So the Conservatives are first in terms of the vote, but second in seats, Labour are third in terms of the vote but first in seats and the Alliance are second in terms of the vote but third in terms of seats.

AK: This looks like the likely result, yes. It isn't quite a wrong winner election like 1951, because there is no winner.

Labour Gain Clwyd South West from Alliance

DD: This is down to the boundaries isn't it?

AK: Not all of it no, some of it is down to turnout, most Conservative and Alliance seats have higher turnouts than Labour seats and this trend is increasing.

DD: John Cole, political difficulties ahead?

Conservative Hold Brentford and Isleworth

John Cole: Well, there's no majority, that's a political difficulty. In fact that's the biggest political difficult, there is no obvious minority either, this isn't 1974. So either we have a second election or for the first time since the war, there has to be some form of agreement between two parties. Now the interesting position is

Conservative Hold Hayes and Harlington

JC: that it looks like the Alliance may be in a position to help either party into power. Now that's an interesting position as well as it puts more pressure on the parties to reach an agreement, which means that the Alliance can get more for their deal.

TK: If I can interrupt, two shockingly low swings for Labour in West London there, which is another example of their South Eastern failure.

DD: Will this cause problems within the Alliance.

JC: I suspect it may be ripples and nothing more, several Owenites have lost their seats as has the only really radical Liberal. If David Owen walked because of a deal with Labour, he might take 2 or 3 MP's with him.

Labour gain Derbyshire, South, Edwina Currie loses

DD: So Major wins but Currie loses.

AK: With a 8% swing, one of the highest of the night. Of course, Major had a 7% swing to the Alliance, but he had a much larger majority.

Labour Gain Ipswich from Conservative

AK: A tiny swing of 2%, but that's all it took.

DD: Anyway, back to the Alliance.

JC: They have everything to play for and very little to lose. They have regionalised their vote very well tonight, losses in some of the old SDP seats and in some of the seats where they squeezed through the middle in 1988, but the West Country is now a sea of gold.

AK: Predicting from tomorrows declarations, all the seats in Cornwall, six seats in Devon, maybe seven, all but one seat in Somerset.

Alliance Hold Cornwall, North

DD: And there is one of them, David Chambers being returned for a third term in North Cornwall, he used to be a chiropodist you know.

JC: Well, he now has a 13,000 majority up from the 300 he took the seat with back in 1984.

Recount in Luton South

DD: Is that another poor Labour performance in the South East, Tony?

AK: Obviously, if they take it, no it won't be. They need about a 5% swing to take the seat.

JC: But this increasing regionalisation is very interesting, the Alliance rule the South West in an iron grip. It is becoming their heartland as much as South Yorkshire is a Labour heartland.

Conservative Hold - Eltham

DD: What did you think of Mrs Thatcher's speech.

JC: It was an interesting speech, it admitted that the Conservatives had lost and there was a tantalising hint of compromise, a hand held out to the Alliance and then at the end that other decisions will have to be slept on.

Scottish Secretary Iain Lang Holds Dumfries and Galloway

DD: What did you think that meant?

JC: I think she's going to resign, but she doesn't want to give Neil Kinnock the pleasure of her resignation tonight. She's lost about seventy seats

AK: More like eighty.

JC: Seventy, eighty, she knows she can't carry on. But I think she wishes to choose the time of her passing.

Independent Labour candidate Dave Nellist holds Coventry South East after two recounts

BBC News, 6pm

Anna Ford: The last seat has now declared in the General Election. The Labour Party has 273 seats, the Conservative Party 265 seats and the Alliance 87 seats. The Conservative Party had 34.5% of the vote and the Alliance and the Labour party had 31% of the vote, the Alliance had slightly more votes in total that Labour. Mrs Thatcher is remaining in Downing Street and as Prime Minister at the moment, however, talks are expected to start between the parties so that a new Government can be formed.
 

Thande

Donor
Interesting. So it may come down to which party has the most to offer the Alliance. Thatcher will have to go as the price for any deal with the Tories, but given they got more votes than Labour, I should imagine it's not off the table.

There are other options besides simply offering PR, of course: offer a referendum, offer a halfway state like AV or German-style MMP, offer PR for local and European elections only, etc... we could end up with an arms race between Kinnock and whoever replaces Thatcher.
 
Interesting. So it may come down to which party has the most to offer the Alliance. Thatcher will have to go as the price for any deal with the Tories, but given they got more votes than Labour, I should imagine it's not off the table.

There are other options besides simply offering PR, of course: offer a referendum, offer a halfway state like AV or German-style MMP, offer PR for local and European elections only, etc... we could end up with an arms race between Kinnock and whoever replaces Thatcher.

I get the impression from Ian's last post that this election will in effect, break the anti PR camp in the Tories anyway. Without them, a No2AV style campaign will be much weaker.
 

Thande

Donor
I get the impression from Ian's last post that this election will in effect, break the anti PR camp in the Tories anyway. Without them, a No2AV style campaign will be much weaker.

I think to some extent it will depend on whether the Alliance can be seen as The Right Sort Of Chaps, If Slightly Misguided, by the Tories. I recall many grassroots Labourites wanting PR back at the turn of the century because they had that view of the Lib Dems and thought it would yield a 'permanent left-wing majority to keep the Tories out'. I can imagine some Tories reluctantly embracing PR if they think it will do the same in reverse to keep the dastardly socialists out. Depends how many people have been paying attention to the lesson of the FDP in Germany.
 
I think to some extent it will depend on whether the Alliance can be seen as The Right Sort Of Chaps, If Slightly Misguided, by the Tories. I recall many grassroots Labourites wanting PR back at the turn of the century because they had that view of the Lib Dems and thought it would yield a 'permanent left-wing majority to keep the Tories out'. I can imagine some Tories reluctantly embracing PR if they think it will do the same in reverse to keep the dastardly socialists out. Depends how many people have been paying attention to the lesson of the FDP in Germany.

Meh, no one in Westminster pays attention to anywhere, when it comes to reforming voting system for national elections. If they did, then they'd realise that PR usually, in a stable society, largely sticks to the script of left-right-left etc.

The AV referendum was rather awful for me, when I realised that almost no one gave a crap that plenty of other countries used different systems, had changed systems from FPP to MMP/PR etc without the world exploding.

Hell, you don't even need to look overseas. Just look at London, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland for different ways of doing things.
 
Is this the third election or is it more than that now? It's definitely the third General Election, but I'm not sure whether the European elections and locals count as one or not. I would guess not, since I don't think the Tories or Labour are ready for the funeral yet, though they may be willing to give up FPTP for the European elections by now even if not anything more, at least as part of the quid-pro-quo for a deal with the Alliance.

I have always found the potential for the Liberals/Alliance/LibDems to act as kingmakers to be an interesting scenario. Of course, it's never quite happened OTL (not even in 2010), but that doesn't make it any less interesting. I wonder if it's been seriously discussed by the party leaders over the years. I'd guess that it probably has, more than once, and a lot more in an idle manner. This TL he consensus seems to be a deal with Labour is likeliest, even though the Owenites won't like it. It will be interesting to see if that's what happens.
 
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Is this the third election or is it more than that now? It's definitely the third General Election, but I'm not sure whether the European elections and locals count as one or not. I would guess not, since I don't think the Tories or Labour are ready for the funeral yet, though they may be willing to give up FPTP for the European elections by now even if not anything more, at least as part of the quid-pro-quo for a deal with the Alliance.

Three down, three to go. I will see what I can sneak in Thailand. HWMBO tends to sleep for 10 hours a day, I sleep for 6 hours a day. :D

Both Labour and the Tories have substantial numbers of MPs ferociously against the removal of FPTP.
 
Fit the Fifteenth - I

from Collapse of Stout Party
Julian Critchley

Watching the finest election-fighting machine in the world collapse itself in one short week after losing one election was quite a harrowing experience. The worst thing was it wasn't even a particularly poor loss, yes, we had lost around 80 colleagues after a miserable and lengthy campaign, but it wasn't a 1945, in fact it wasn't even a 1966.

Too many people had been spooked by an Alliance candidate chasing them around the streets with a Focus leaflet and a reputation for fixing potholes. I had managed to hold Aldershot by just under six thousand, but there were plenty of others looking a bit panicky, many of which just needed to actually stop treating Cozyshire and the Boondocks as a sinecure for life.

Obviously, the Great White She-Elephant had to go and she knew that, especially as even Gummer was being disloyal on the wireless by mid-Friday. A small circle of courtiers were for various reasons trying to delay the denouement, whilst white shoed estate agents from the banlieues of Essex prepared to commit suttee on her political grave.

However, after a very short call to Penhaligon, which in which I understand a single question was asked and an unusually terse reply was given, Margaret dumped and whilst remaining as Prime Minister pro tem at the behest of Buck House, resigned the leadership of the Conservative Party.

Now what should have happened was simple, either Michael or Ken should have been essentially anointed as the chosen one. Obviously, there were some formalities that would have to be done, but a quick meeting could be arranged for the Monday and our new approved leader would be able to go into talks with the nations's favourite Cornish populist. But no, after taking soundings, mainly of his own voice, Marcus decided to plunge the party further down the slippery slope to the perfect degringolade.

So we had a entire week for the nominations process and then possibly up to a week of elections during which time the Blackwood Bore would have persuaded Penhaligon into some form of loveless marriage which would undoubtedly be immediately denounced from the right by Dr Owen and his unlovable stooge Cartwright and from the left by Councillor Meadowcroft (who had mercifully been removed from us) and his assorted band of oddities, some of which were even fellow councillors.

The most interesting part of the nomination proceedings was watching those hanging around like Banquo's Ghost. Major, the former Crown Prince who had fallen for a steamy bed; Portillo, removed by a youthful pechant for Grecian activities; Patten, who had followed his defeat in Bath in 88 with by being defeated at Winchester and Howard, who decided to nurse his 122 majority. They stalked the scene, unable to let go, often making Delphic comments or acting as Cassandra to the fortunes of others.

So whilst Little Kinnock wooed his fellow Celt, the Conservatives did what they have always done best and plotted. The phone rang constantly, lobby reporters were attentive and free drinks appeared in front of you in Annie's. Blandishments were proffered "X has always thought very highly of you/Y has never understood why you are not a minister/Z has always enjoyed your columns". There were even little soirees arranged where you could meet with like-minded people and listen to the candidate.

There was a certain level of coyness as regards who was to be nominated, with the leadership vacant only two nominations were needed which would allow for just about anyone to stand. It was clear that around eight people were actively seeking nominations, but the first to be nominated was Douglas Hurd, Douglas clearly wanted to represent the mainstream of the party. This was followed fairly quickly by Michael and Ken, who had failed to reach an agreement. With the slots on the left taken up, little Dorrell decided to stop his campaign.

This, of course, left a huge space on the right, not only for those who wished to carry the Thatcherite flame, but for those somewhat to the right of the Leaderene. There were was a very odd rumour that Tony von Marlow was considering a run, but was finding difficult to get the second signature, but the gap was quickly filled by the ever charismatic Peter Lilley and the delightfully goggle-eyed John Redwood. Lilley concentrated on the carrying the flame vote; Redwood seemed to attract the sort of MP who was perhaps best placed for Ward 8 at Broadmoor rather than the House.

With that, the list appeared to be full, there was no woman despite attempts to cajole both Virginia and Gillian and no candidate who didn't have plausible deniability with the former junta - not even Michael. There was some talk of a "Common Sense" candidate, but as the idea was promoted by the Butcher of Sowerby who had managed to survive the deluge on a split vote, it didn't last long. But late on the Thursday, clearly appalled by a selection of candidates who had bought their own furniture, emerged Alan Clark who had somehow managed to persuade the electors of the Sutton Division of Plymouth to return him once again. The media were delighted, Alan always added to the gaiety of the nation, his papers were signed by the remaining Winterton and Neil Hamilton.

However, the high jinks were not yet over. Outraged by the idea of a man who made Shagger Norris look like a celibate even having a sniff of the leadership of the Conservative Party, stepped forward the Maid of Maidstone. With the first ballot on the Tuesday, it was to be "What Larks" all weekend. Personally, I resolve to find out which candidate Lord Archer was supporting, M&S Shepherds Pie has never been my thing, but I cannot afford Krug on an MPs salary.

Virtually no one noticed that during that week, Kinnock and Penhaligon had failed to steer a path between the Scylla of electoral reform and the Charybdis of the Unions.
 
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