Fit the Fourteenth - Part II
Islwyn, just after midnight
Neil Kinnock <on phone>: Well, Peter, I don't think we've got a majority, but it is looking decent. Any more news?
Peter Mandelson: We've just taken Pendle, but the swing isn't brilliant, just under 4%, but it really is all over the place.
NK: Is it regional, is there any factor?
PM: Too early to tell really, Neil, it's mainly our safer seats in
Alliance Gain Northavon from the Conservatives
NK: Did you see that on the BBC, Northavon, what's happening?
PM: I think Penhooligan is having a very good night in the South West, the swings else where look not so good for them and they are supposed to have good swings to us. Hyndburn - NOW
NK: YEEEES. Nice majority.
PM: Hmm, 6 percent swing, but it isn't enough for a majority, we need 8% and look at Basildon.
NK: We held it.
PM: We did, but with a 3 percent swing, that won't work well in the Southern marginals.
NK: But is one of ours, isn't that different? We've held South Shields.
PM: I would be very worried if we didn't.
Alliance Hold Portsmouth South
PM: Good grief, how big is that majority. Six thousand.
Alliance Hold Yeovil
NK: Not as big as Paddy's, Fifteen thousand. Here's Mellor.
PM: We haven't got it.
NK: I know, but it's the majority seat.
Conservative Hold Putney
PM: We've lost voteshare there, Christ.
NK: Swing against us?
Labour Hold Oldham West
PM: No, Tories have dropped more, but that's only a 1% swing.
NK: She's not going to get back in is she?
PM: Not with a majority, no, but more like that and she'll be the largest party.
NK: Christ. Anyway, I've got to get to the count, you OK in Hartlepool.
PM: I've only got a very small swing, but yes, 9,000 or so majority.
Truro, 1am
David Penhaligon: Paddy, this is magnificent.
Paddy Ashdown: It's very regional though, we aren't having much success outside of the South West. But yes, the swings are working in our favour in the South West, but it isn't as good as it could be.
DP: The tactical vote hasn't really increased.
PA: Straight switch from the Tories, very few squeezed votes from Labour.
Cherie Booth holds Sedgefield
DP: So who is going to be the largest party?
PA: I think it's going to be Labour, BBC still think that as well, but they have missed a fair few.
DP: Hmm and how many have we got
Alliance gain Somerton and Frome from the Conservatives
PA: Difficult, we are losing quite a few of those SDP seats that we took from Labour like Ashfield. Eighty odd.
DP: That's still brilliant, how many Owenites?
PA: Three - Owen, Cartwright and Cunningham and Cunningham is a bit more flexible than the others.
DP: You mean he's barely hung on again and needs every bit of help he can get.
Labour Hold Clydebank and Milngavie
PA: Yes, he might be a bit more cooperative.
Labour Hold Glasgow Springburn
DP: So, a deal with Neil
PA: They'll deal, but what for, we'll see how many they get, it could be 1974 all over again.
DP: I don't think he'll have enough, you need 300 for that sort of game.
Conservative Hold Tatton
PA: So coalition or confidence and supply
DP: I think I would prefer the latter, I don't trust Neil not to dump and run.
PA: The SDP will prefer it any way.
Labour tipped to gain Kingswood
DP: Owen will walk if we do a deal with Labour.
PA: Two or three won't matter.
Conservative Hold Battersea
DP: Just seen Battersea, a swing to the Tories
PA: That's gentrification for you.
Finchley, 2am
Margaret Thatcher: Norman, I'm glad you got here and congratulations on holding Chingford. What an awful speech Kinnock has made and to think in an hour or so I have to go on stage and congratulate that man.
Norman Tebbit: Looks like he will have more seats than us, but not that many more. Yes, he's an awful windbag, but he's an awful windbag with more seats than us.
Recount in Brighton, Kemptown
MT: Probably, but the Liberals are the Kingmakers, yes.
NT: Looks like they could put either of us in. We can't be certain.
Teddy Taylor Holds Southend, East
MT: But they won't put me in will they?
NT: No, Margaret, they won't, but they might put Ken in.
MT: You are going to tell me it is for the good of the party.
Labour Hold Pontypridd
NT: For the good of the country.
Conservative Hold Bexleyheath
MT: They'll want proportional representation.
NT: Days like this I wouldn't disagree with them.
Conservative Hold Monmouth
MT: Norman! We lost Monmouth in the by-election.
NT: We did, but BBC only counts from the last election.
MT: Ahh, so we've won it back, good. Why wouldn't you disagree with PR
NT: Oh I still disagree with it, but if Labour are going to get more seats than us with three or four percent less votes and the poor old Alliance might get thirty percent again and only have what 75 seats according to the BBC, there's something not right.
Labour Gain Warrington South from Conservative
MT: I thought that was down to the boundaries.
NT: Our problem is, partly yes. But even we redrew them after every election
MT: The activists wouldn't like that.
Labour Gain Birmingham Northfield
NT: I don't blame then, but their turnout is lower, so we can get more votes and still lose.
MT: Still no excuse for PR. It will lead to permanent coalitions.
NT: I agree, but three out of kilter results, wouldn't it be best to offer something that we like and deliver it rather than wait for the inevitable.
Conservatives Hold Gravesham
MT: It's weak, it's running away from strong government
Conservatives Hold Wiltshire North
NT: And it's not going to be your problem any more.
Alliance Gain Eastbourne
MT: Well, poor, poor Ian's seat didn't come back to us. Well, I don't think the party will stand for it, Norman, nor do I think that the Labour party will stand for it either.
Islwyn, just after midnight
Neil Kinnock <on phone>: Well, Peter, I don't think we've got a majority, but it is looking decent. Any more news?
Peter Mandelson: We've just taken Pendle, but the swing isn't brilliant, just under 4%, but it really is all over the place.
NK: Is it regional, is there any factor?
PM: Too early to tell really, Neil, it's mainly our safer seats in
Alliance Gain Northavon from the Conservatives
NK: Did you see that on the BBC, Northavon, what's happening?
PM: I think Penhooligan is having a very good night in the South West, the swings else where look not so good for them and they are supposed to have good swings to us. Hyndburn - NOW
NK: YEEEES. Nice majority.
PM: Hmm, 6 percent swing, but it isn't enough for a majority, we need 8% and look at Basildon.
NK: We held it.
PM: We did, but with a 3 percent swing, that won't work well in the Southern marginals.
NK: But is one of ours, isn't that different? We've held South Shields.
PM: I would be very worried if we didn't.
Alliance Hold Portsmouth South
PM: Good grief, how big is that majority. Six thousand.
Alliance Hold Yeovil
NK: Not as big as Paddy's, Fifteen thousand. Here's Mellor.
PM: We haven't got it.
NK: I know, but it's the majority seat.
Conservative Hold Putney
PM: We've lost voteshare there, Christ.
NK: Swing against us?
Labour Hold Oldham West
PM: No, Tories have dropped more, but that's only a 1% swing.
NK: She's not going to get back in is she?
PM: Not with a majority, no, but more like that and she'll be the largest party.
NK: Christ. Anyway, I've got to get to the count, you OK in Hartlepool.
PM: I've only got a very small swing, but yes, 9,000 or so majority.
Truro, 1am
David Penhaligon: Paddy, this is magnificent.
Paddy Ashdown: It's very regional though, we aren't having much success outside of the South West. But yes, the swings are working in our favour in the South West, but it isn't as good as it could be.
DP: The tactical vote hasn't really increased.
PA: Straight switch from the Tories, very few squeezed votes from Labour.
Cherie Booth holds Sedgefield
DP: So who is going to be the largest party?
PA: I think it's going to be Labour, BBC still think that as well, but they have missed a fair few.
DP: Hmm and how many have we got
Alliance gain Somerton and Frome from the Conservatives
PA: Difficult, we are losing quite a few of those SDP seats that we took from Labour like Ashfield. Eighty odd.
DP: That's still brilliant, how many Owenites?
PA: Three - Owen, Cartwright and Cunningham and Cunningham is a bit more flexible than the others.
DP: You mean he's barely hung on again and needs every bit of help he can get.
Labour Hold Clydebank and Milngavie
PA: Yes, he might be a bit more cooperative.
Labour Hold Glasgow Springburn
DP: So, a deal with Neil
PA: They'll deal, but what for, we'll see how many they get, it could be 1974 all over again.
DP: I don't think he'll have enough, you need 300 for that sort of game.
Conservative Hold Tatton
PA: So coalition or confidence and supply
DP: I think I would prefer the latter, I don't trust Neil not to dump and run.
PA: The SDP will prefer it any way.
Labour tipped to gain Kingswood
DP: Owen will walk if we do a deal with Labour.
PA: Two or three won't matter.
Conservative Hold Battersea
DP: Just seen Battersea, a swing to the Tories
PA: That's gentrification for you.
Finchley, 2am
Margaret Thatcher: Norman, I'm glad you got here and congratulations on holding Chingford. What an awful speech Kinnock has made and to think in an hour or so I have to go on stage and congratulate that man.
Norman Tebbit: Looks like he will have more seats than us, but not that many more. Yes, he's an awful windbag, but he's an awful windbag with more seats than us.
Recount in Brighton, Kemptown
MT: Probably, but the Liberals are the Kingmakers, yes.
NT: Looks like they could put either of us in. We can't be certain.
Teddy Taylor Holds Southend, East
MT: But they won't put me in will they?
NT: No, Margaret, they won't, but they might put Ken in.
MT: You are going to tell me it is for the good of the party.
Labour Hold Pontypridd
NT: For the good of the country.
Conservative Hold Bexleyheath
MT: They'll want proportional representation.
NT: Days like this I wouldn't disagree with them.
Conservative Hold Monmouth
MT: Norman! We lost Monmouth in the by-election.
NT: We did, but BBC only counts from the last election.
MT: Ahh, so we've won it back, good. Why wouldn't you disagree with PR
NT: Oh I still disagree with it, but if Labour are going to get more seats than us with three or four percent less votes and the poor old Alliance might get thirty percent again and only have what 75 seats according to the BBC, there's something not right.
Labour Gain Warrington South from Conservative
MT: I thought that was down to the boundaries.
NT: Our problem is, partly yes. But even we redrew them after every election
MT: The activists wouldn't like that.
Labour Gain Birmingham Northfield
NT: I don't blame then, but their turnout is lower, so we can get more votes and still lose.
MT: Still no excuse for PR. It will lead to permanent coalitions.
NT: I agree, but three out of kilter results, wouldn't it be best to offer something that we like and deliver it rather than wait for the inevitable.
Conservatives Hold Gravesham
MT: It's weak, it's running away from strong government
Conservatives Hold Wiltshire North
NT: And it's not going to be your problem any more.
Alliance Gain Eastbourne
MT: Well, poor, poor Ian's seat didn't come back to us. Well, I don't think the party will stand for it, Norman, nor do I think that the Labour party will stand for it either.