Fitter Italian Military: Poll

[Croesus]

The Situation

Germany has invaded Poland Sep 1939. Britain and France declare war on Germany. Britain's view of Italy is that cultivating Il Duce will split the Axis; France's view is that only by presenting a unified front will split the Axis. France has given political assurances to Yugoslavia but no military talks have occurred; Britain has given no assurances of any sort. Britain has convinced France to give assurances to Greece.

Italy invades Croatia Oct 1939, citing provocative behaviour by Macek's government. Italy assures Britain that the Anglo-Italian agreement holds and that something must be done before the whole of SE Europe falls under German influence; Il Duce even offers to come to terms with Daladier. Il Duce points to the German-Soviet non-aggression pact and hints darkly at events to come

What happens?

 

[arctic warrior]

The Situation

Germany has invaded Poland Sep 1939. Britain and France declare war on Germany. Britain's view of Italy is that cultivating Il Duce will split the Axis; France's view is that only by presenting a unified front will split the Axis. France has given political assurances to Yugoslavia but no military talks have occurred; Britain has given no assurances of any sort. Britain has convinced France to give assurances to Greece.

Italy invades Croatia Oct 1939, citing provocative behaviour by Macek's government. Italy assures Britain that the Anglo-Italian agreement holds and that something must be done before the whole of SE Europe falls under German influence; Il Duce even offers to come to terms with Daladier. Il Duce points to the German-Soviet non-aggression pact and hints darkly at events to come

What happens?

The enemy of my enemy is my friend - to a certain degree. Really an interesting scenario. Mussolini try doing brinkmanship.

 

[Rockingham]

Even if they do declare war, it will be the winter war all over again...

 

[Shadow Knight]

I voted for the one month more than no war as I think war is likely sooner rather than later. Personally I think longer than one month and more along the lines of six months or more.

 

[Croesus]

Adjustment to Third Option

As per Shadow Knight below, consider the third option to be one month to six months; I think it's a good point. Also the poll is open for ten days.

Emperor of Rockingham notes it may be Winter War Yugoslav style: yes indeed, that's a possibility. Another possibility that needs a bit of thought is the resignation of Chamberlain. It was his policy to remain close to Il Duce as a means of moderating Hitler; first Czech, then Poland and now Yugoslavia have all been invaded in one from or another by Axis powers on his watch.

Surely there are similar grounds for his resignation as OTL. Complicating things is that the Anglo-French guarantee received by the Greeks is superseded ITTL by the Italo-Greek non-aggresion pact (though how shaky that is remains to be seen). Chamberlains policy is in tatters.

Bear in mind also that the Soviet Union invades Finland in November (and the next poll will look at Stalins response to the Yugoslav invasion), which makes for a grim three months for the Western Powers. Between them the three totalitarian states have absorbed/invaded five sovereign nations in four years. This is a time of crisis of unprecedented proportions.

Croesus

 

[Max Sinister]

One the one hand, the Allies didn't really want to attack, while the fascists and nazis wanted.

If the Allies attacked, they could probably beat the Italians. (Would that be an opportunity for de Gaulle to test his ideas about tanks?)

It's a confused situation. But since the Allies can't act all alone, and will at least hesitate to act immediately, we could see Mussolini's butt kicked as IOTL, and then the Allies can say "we don't even have to help them, they're already the stronger ones!"

 

[schrammy]

well my reasoning behind my vote is that the allies didn't attack germany in OTL because they tought they needed to first build up to match german strenght the phoney war, why would they risk attacking italy witch would surely devert significant assets for the for seeable future, long before they where ready to fight (or so they tought) even germany alone OTL.

there fore i vote that ill duce gets to fight his paralel war without the allies interfering,because the allies needed to buy some time to rearm first.

 

[Croesus]

Crikey, only a 10% response rate... but those with opinions are clearly favouring a single option.

Following their Sep 3 declaration of war the Anglo-French announced a naval blockade of Germany and launched a timid Sep 4 - 11 offensive into the Saarland. They then watch in dismay as the Soviet-Japanese agree to a Sep 16 armistice in Manchuria followed by a Sep 17 Soviet attack on Poland. In Romania the Iron Guard assassinate Premier Calinescu on Sep 21 just as Romania is appealing to the Anglo-French for assistance against German economic and diplomatic blackmail. On Sep 29 the Soviets sign a treaty of friendship with Germany and a military agreement with Estonia.

Then comes the news that Italy has invaded Yugoslavia. Inside the first fortnight following the Italian invasion the Soviets sign an Oct 5 military agreement with Latvia and a mutual assistance pact with Lithuania. During this entire period the only OTL diplomatic initiative on the part of the Anglo-French is an Oct 19 mutual assistance treaty with Turkey: ITTL this may not occur in the same form or at the same time.

It's a bad time for the Anglo-French.

Croesus

 

[Croesus]

Well this has stabilised. Clearly the board thinks that the conditions exist for Mussolini to eke out a little more from the western powers as they struggle to realise how big this war is going to become. I've been giving some thought to the political implications of this and think there is a good chance that Chamberlain will lose a motion of confidence given his emphasis so far of keeping on Il Duce's good side.

Croesus

 

[Grimm Reaper]

The key question is whether the Italian military has improved already. If not, the invasion and occupation of Yugoslavia, even with probably support from the Croatians and possibly others, is going to tie down a percentage of the Italian Army large enough to make Mussolini appear less threatening.

 

[Croesus]

The assumption is that, yes, the Italian military reforms have been completed to, say, 75%. So the army that invades Yugoslavia in 1939 is in some form or another relative to the army of the 1943.

IOTL as ITTL the Croatian state under Macek will prove to be an obstacle rather than an assistance. Croatia will be under no illusions as to Italian intentions given that Fiume, Zara and other portions of the Dalmatian coast were taken up O/ITL by Italy in keeping with it's irredentist Venetia theme.

Just to be fair, the JV at this point is very, very poor. Abandoned by France, with no help from a Britain that is seeking to cajole Italy, economically dependent on Germany and concerned about Hungary about the only positive note is the warming of relations with Bulgaria. Italy is attacking a European quasi-Abyssinia and ITTL it has a better army and, unlike the Greek OTL operation, has fewer physical obstacles to overcome.

I note also the resurgence of interest in immediate declaration of war. I wonder if this is a feel-good action by London/Paris to sate their populations, or if there is a sense that there is a real option for attacking Italy.

Croesus