Fitter Italian Military: Poll 2(b)

[Croesus]

According to TTL Italy has in Oct 1939 absorbed Croatia and contributed to the dissolution of Yugoslavia. Rome has concluded a non-aggression pact with Greece; is still a member of the Axis/Pact of Steel/Anti-Comintern Pact; but has not declared war on Britain or France.

Hitler has unwittingly undone much of his work opening up the Danubian basin to German economic and political influence. The Soviet-German pact has given Stalin room to maneuver in the Black Sea and Baltic regions and substantially overturned the diplomatic strategies of the second-tier powers along the Baltic-Black Sea line.

The Anglo-French are planning campaigns on the German periphery, in Scandinavia and the Balkans, while fighting a Phoney War in the centre. Germany is pausing following its conquest of Poland while the Red Army prepares for the invasion of Finland.

Mussolini and Ciano have therefore been given a breather as the war moves away from them. Somehow they have managed to fight a parallel war to Germany without prompting the Anglo-French to declare against them. What is their short term aim?

This time... poll to follow...

 

[TotrueTufaar]

Ports. China, Arabia, East Africa. Perhaps try to get Zanzibar, claiming a late Mandate. Antarctica might give them a passing interest.

 

[CJNyfalt]

I would say that Italy should watch which way Turkey, Greece and Bulgaria jumps and look for opportunity to play them against each others. The best would be an opportunity to intervene in a war that someone else started.

Diplomatically trying to gain something from France is also realistic. Attacking the Allies would be out of the question before France is overrun.

EDIT:
Serbia still has Bosnia? If that's the case, I could see Italy taking it too.

 

[TotrueTufaar]

The Independent State of Croatia got Bosnia

 

[TotrueTufaar]

You mentioned South Tyrol, but I was thinking of their annexation of the remaining Austrian portion. And if they went after Britain, Cyprus would likely be on the list. And what would be done about Romania?

EDIT: Hitler had spoken in his unpublished Second Book, which I've only read a portion of, of abandoning South Tryol's Germans as the price for alliance. All the other parties, and much of the Nazi's, hated this.
A transcript to Hitler's Zweites Buch.
http://web.archive.org/web/20030608063603/http://www.adolfhitler.ws/lib/books/zweites/zweites.htm

I recall it mentioned as likely allies the British Empire, Italy, Spain, and the United States as the ultimate opponent, due to Aryan manpower and Jewish minds.

 

[DurableShift]

Off the bat, Mussolini's in a fascinating position. With France and Britain still strong, attacking them is right out. I say Mussolini should keep up what's been working and chat it up with Greece and/or Turkey while waiting to see which way the wind blows with Germany.

This fits, as Italy has what it wanted so far. They need some time to digest their winnings and prepare for the next phrase. There's simply nothing to be gained by aggression against the Allies right now.

Awesome timeline, by the way. It got me to register.

 

[Croesus]

The Independent State of Croatia got Bosnia

... and Italy got Croatia. Sarajevo will soon be staging its victory parade to the Italian liberators.

And VAST points to having an Italian military facility in the Antarctic.

Croesus

 

[TotrueTufaar]

As a puppet. Not directly annexed. Unless this is more of a Protectorate like Bohemia and Moravia?

 

[Croesus]

As a puppet. Not directly annexed. Unless this is more of a Protectorate like Bohemia and Moravia?

Assuming you're talking about Croatia here.

Mussolini has found himself into trouble ITTL. He intially set up the Ustase leader Pavelic as his pretender-Premier for a Croatian puppet state; however, the incumbent Macek, who OTL enjoyed a considerable mandate, has, by laying down his arms and appealing to Rome via Athens, challenged Rome to consider what is best - a fascist with less support, or a populist with more support.

In pure irredentist terms Mussolini is looking to regain the Venetian hinterland of the Dalmatian coast; thoughts of pushing further into the Danube basin will come after. If Macek can pull a deal whereby he cedes the Dalmatian coast he could well negotiate a satellite Croatian state, rather than an occupied puppet: and there is a difference between the two.

So I'm really not willing to say at this point how the Croatian situation will play out: suffice it to say that Italy is in the box seat and has a great opportunity. Whether or not it will capitalise on that opportunity is another matter entirely.

Croesus.

 

[Hierophant]

I like the idea of the satellite Croatia, perhaps the Italians could disarm the Serbs and give them some equipment for more divisions.

I think that the knowledge that Italy won the war by the skin of their teeth would make Mussolini a little more cautious in the future.

Perhaps when the Nazi's are setting up Vichy France a similar situation to the Japanese occupation of Indochina could be produced, handing Mussolini Tunisia, Corsica, and perhaps Syria for free.

 

[schrammy]

i voted for 2 things 1 resume negotiations with greece, this seems the most logical thing to do there is a lote more to gain in my view by coercing them and slowly turning them into a defacto pupet state by economic means than there is by militaric once.

my 2nd vote is overrun serbia like mark antony said: the ram has touched the wall no mercy!!!

they are at the moment in total/neartotal dissarry and this is a prime opportunity to elimenate what might become a constand thorn in italy's side.
finishing them off after solving the imidiate supply problems,
will free italy's resources for any possible next campain.

 

[Shadow Knight]

I voted for four things. Doing nothing and negotiation across the board. The Italian military has just 'won' a war and has some serious pull to complain loudly about certain internal problems that need to be corrected before they gallivant off on their next adventure. Not to mention likely to argue a need to absorb their gains in Croatia where their smaller military will be occupied for the foreseeable future.

Just my two cents.

 

[mikegold]

I do think here that attacking Greece would be moronic... this is an ethnically homogenous, friendly nation. At most they would occupy Corfu, but why just Corfu when the whole country is willing?

 

[TotrueTufaar]

I do think here that attacking Greece would be moronic... this is an ethnically homogenous, friendly nation. At most they would occupy Corfu, but why just Corfu when the whole country is willing?

They were hardly friendly. They had their eyes on land of every country that bordered them. When Macedonia became a country, the Creeks closed their borders to them.

 

[Croesus]

I'm interested in the votes for...

Croesus

 

[TotrueTufaar]

Voted for Choices 5, 6, 7, 9, and 11. And your post didn't give to many possibilities away.

 

[Croesus]

I was interested in the votes for negotiation with the Soviet Union. OTL Italo-Soviet relations went through a warming period to the point where there were advance negotiations for a Ciano-Molotov agreement of a similar type to the Ribbentrop-Molotov agreement. Hitler put enough obstacles in the way to kill it off post-Nov 1940 following his political decision to invade Russia.

Clearly the board thinks that negotiation is the logical next step for Italy, with Greece, France and Turkey being the likely candidates. Of the three two are pro-western while the third is neutral. Given that the Fall of France has yet to occur and escalate the conflict beyond a purely European affair there seems to be a good case to suggest that Italy continues in its role as an Axis non-belligerent but also is positioned to return to its traditional role as balance of power between the western and central powers; not to mention the impact its Yugoslav action will have on the politics of the Danubian-Balkan states.

Croesus

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Why would Italy attack Turkey? That's looney. How would they even get there? They would also lose. Even granted a stronger Italian military, in OTL they lost against Greece, with an adjacent base - an amphibious invasion of Turkey is not going to go well. It will also piss off Hitler in a major way and send Turkey into the Soviet camp.

 

[Croesus]

Why would Italy attack Turkey? That's looney. How would they even get there? They would also lose. Even granted a stronger Italian military, in OTL they lost against Greece, with an adjacent base - an amphibious invasion of Turkey is not going to go well. It will also piss off Hitler in a major way and send Turkey into the Soviet camp.

Well the option only attracted 8% of the voting, and without knowing what voting pattern the attack Turkey option was part of (if there was one), its impossible to tell the rationale of those who see it as an option; frinst if someone voted for 'negotiate with the Soviets' and 'attack Turkey', then there's at least some plausibility to the vote... further to this, if they voted to 'negotiate with the Soviets' and 'negotiate with the Greeks' as well as 'attack Turkey' then you have a very isolated Turkey fighting a war on three fronts.

I included the option largely because I felt that some on the board would consider I was being too rational with TTL Mussolini and that having an option where he has a sudden rush of blood to the head and charges off on a tangent would help broaden the results and give those observers a voting option that better reflected their views. The attack on Turkey therefore becomes TTL's version of the OTL attack on Greece.

I'm not sure about your contention that Italy vs Turkey would send Istanbul into the orbit of Moscow. An Italian attack would invoke the defensive aspects of the Anglo-Franco-Turkish Tripartite Pact and play into the hands of those at the Quai D'Orsay and Admiralty who are looking for ways to both bring Turkey into the war on the western side as well as knock Italy off its war-footing.

The Saracoglu-Molotov conversations in Oct 39 seemed to confirm that there was a sea-change in the attitudes of Moscow towards Istanbul which would, to my mind, support closer ties to London and Paris... especially since the only way the Soviets could assist Turkey vs Italy would be to sail through the Straits, make landfall in Turkey or the Balkans; whereas the western powers can make immediate inroads on land, sea and air.

Croesus

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Crap...didn't realize this was multiple choice...anyways in addition to putting presure on Hitler regarding South Tyrol...add my voice to the negotiations with Greece, Turkey and France as well. Non- Belligerency for now to see what options open up?