Fisher's Baltic Project

I have done a TL on a month by month basis. The UK does not have a spare Army in 1914/15/16. The UK probably doesn't in 1917. Germany has internal lines of communication, so whichever front the UK pulls an army, the Germany/CP will just move troops from there.

I am not so sure on the Danes reaction. They could lose Iceland and Greenland. It also depends on which year, and the attitude of the USA. The U-boats bases will not be hugely helpful, it only saves the U-boast maybe a half day travel each way.

Losing an army will go a long way towards making the UK think about peace. Losing the fleet is enough to begin to see peace talks in many scenarios.

I was just pointing out that the CP actually gain something while the Entente lose a lot.
 

Adler

Banned
If someone said Seelöwe was a brilliant idea, well, it had at least some chances, IF the prerequisites were achieved... The Frisian islands would be even a better place to ivade, as there was to possibility of retreat. Pommerania? No way in hell.

At first, the British needed an army, which would be missing in France. The Russians as well. And to build up such a force needs absolute secrecy. And especially in Russia that was not given.

Okay, let's assume, the GF and the Baltic Fleet can keep it secret and start their mission. At some point off Norway and Finland the fleets were spotted and the Germans get the news. We shall also think it happened in in 1915.

The HSF would make a sortie. In this moment the British would need to make a phoney attack on Wilhelmshaven to keep the HSF busy in the North Sea. However, they will likely fail. Uboats and mines will take the toll. But I have still doubts the GF will make such a mission. They have to protect the convoy. And the GF has not so many dreadnoughts to do both. So I think they will just make this "Skagerrak dash". At latest now every armed German ship will be alarmed.

The first problem will be the Danish defenses. The Germans had forced the Danes to mine the entrance of the Baltic sea. And they are in no way able to accept a passage of their waters by a British fleet. So the British have to break through the minefields, fight the Danish defenses and then proceed through the German minefields and defenses.

We should see the geographical situation: There is only one way to take with such a fleet to enter the Baltics, at least within a reasonable time. The Belt between Fünen and Sealand. The way between Helsingborg and Helsingör is too small to proceed. The British ships would be sitting ducks.

Even if the British somehow successfully bribe the Danes, they would pass soon after the German defenses from the Fehmarn Belt on. Here daring torpedo attacks will be made by German torpedo boats. As a German commander I would use my older boats here. The British shall fire their ammo on these small boats. They will soon have more troubles.

The warships can drive over 20 knots mostly. But the landing ships not. The fleet will need at least two nights to proceed before reaching the destination. Let's assume the convoy can make 10 kn (very optimistical). That are 18 km. From Mandal to Cape Skagen there are about 200 km and from Skagen to Fehmarn another 350 and from there to Kolberg another 300. That are roughly 48 hours. Likely more. Enough time for the Germans to prepare the defenses.

Torpedo boats, Uboats, mines. And the HSF. The HSF might wait only until the light craft had weakened the GF much. Oh, the Russians. Four dreadnoughts and several smaller ships. They can be ignored for the moment. Likely they will have the very same problems like the British.

In the end I have severe doubts the British army will make it so far. I think many ships will be sunk before a landing can come. But the Germans are prepared. Artillery, MGs, infantry. If the army makes it so far, together with the Russians, they can likely take a strip at the Pommeranian coast- and then be stalled by the Germans. Soon after the land forces need to retreat. But now the exit is closed. All surviving ships, and there will be not many, as most other ships were sunk, scuttled or in Sweden, will be forced to go to a Russian held harbour.

The result: The British Pommeranian Army was destroyed, the Grand Fleet, at least, what was left, bottled in Helsinki. The very next day the British ask for peace, as the German fleet prepares to make a sortie into the Atlantic. Even if only cruisers were sent in the end, the British have not many chances now.

Adler
 

Deleted member 9338

Raid vrs Invasion

I find it hard to believe Fisher was planning for such an attempt. With Berlin 150km from the coast I do not think the British have the lift to be able to land and take Berlin.

Does anyone know what the defense were like on the coast or around the capital?

Was a raid more likely to be promising?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I find it hard to believe Fisher was planning for such an attempt. With Berlin 150km from the coast I do not think the British have the lift to be able to land and take Berlin.

Does anyone know what the defense were like on the coast or around the capital?

Was a raid more likely to be promising?

Any raid still has to have the Grand Fleet as an escort, or the entire convoy will be lost. You have to remember it is not just Fisher, but Churchill. He was a huge gambler, a man who live the big bet, long odds, high payout. It also gets into the mindset that the RN should win the war. If you read enough prewar material, it begins to make sense from their perspective.

Before June 1915, it was a mixed war. The Austrians had lost two major defensive cities and major force concentrations. The Russians had lost an full army and hand another one maimed. In the West, the Germans had been stopped, but only after the core of the BEF was gutted and France lost her industrial region. The RN had success with the blockade, but this was basically done with cruisers. The RN was under huge pressure to win the war. The RN had spent decades talking about how the UK could be quickly defeated by land forces except for the main battle line. This idea also implies the RN can be used an offensive weapons to win wars. Why not do the reverse of all the invasions the RN had talked up for years for bigger budgets.
And like any Navy, the RN was fighting it true budgetary enemy, the British Army which was rapidly expanding.

It is understandable why the tried to come up with a plan, the problem for the UK was all the possible plans either involved massive risks or they involved amphibious invasions of neutral countries.
 
Top