The possibility of an SPD majority in 1930.
Thinking once again about the possibilties in case g), above, there could, as well, be a bit clearer election result, where the SPD benefits more from it's role as the main opposition, and does significantly better, while the DDP does quite a bit worse...
case g-forte SPD 273; Zentrum 84; NSDAP 75; DDP 46; BVP 26; KPD 24; DNVP 6; BBB 4; Ldvo 1; Ldbu 2.
As a result, the SPD would hold a narrow majority - without a coalition. What would the non-left parties do? Support the government? Form a hard opposition?
Until February of 1933, when Eberts second term will be up, the economy might have started to somewhat recover, but probably not beyond the level of late 1930. And all of the former parties to the right of the SPD are opposing the government - more or less.
If all of them do it hard,there is a fair chance that they will support a unified candidate of the right, and the only one with a chance of victory will be: Adolf Hitler.
With the support of all parties of the right (and center), Hitler would certainly win, and as President, hold a fresh Reichstag election that would throw the SPD out and an NSDAP majority in (most likely).
Of course, the Zentrum leaders might have the good sense to support a third term for Ebert, who thus might get re-elected.
With the economy further recovering until late in 1934, when the next Reichstag election would be due, the SPD might still remain strong enough that they could either form a coalition with the Zentrum, or rule with a minority government that might be tolerated by either Zentrum or KPD. The failure to take power would then lead to a realignemt to the right, and by 1936, the peril would be over...
Thinking once again about the possibilties in case g), above, there could, as well, be a bit clearer election result, where the SPD benefits more from it's role as the main opposition, and does significantly better, while the DDP does quite a bit worse...
case g-forte SPD 273; Zentrum 84; NSDAP 75; DDP 46; BVP 26; KPD 24; DNVP 6; BBB 4; Ldvo 1; Ldbu 2.
As a result, the SPD would hold a narrow majority - without a coalition. What would the non-left parties do? Support the government? Form a hard opposition?
Until February of 1933, when Eberts second term will be up, the economy might have started to somewhat recover, but probably not beyond the level of late 1930. And all of the former parties to the right of the SPD are opposing the government - more or less.
If all of them do it hard,there is a fair chance that they will support a unified candidate of the right, and the only one with a chance of victory will be: Adolf Hitler.
With the support of all parties of the right (and center), Hitler would certainly win, and as President, hold a fresh Reichstag election that would throw the SPD out and an NSDAP majority in (most likely).
Of course, the Zentrum leaders might have the good sense to support a third term for Ebert, who thus might get re-elected.
With the economy further recovering until late in 1934, when the next Reichstag election would be due, the SPD might still remain strong enough that they could either form a coalition with the Zentrum, or rule with a minority government that might be tolerated by either Zentrum or KPD. The failure to take power would then lead to a realignemt to the right, and by 1936, the peril would be over...