First Past the Post System In the Weimar Republic?

The possibility of an SPD majority in 1930.

Thinking once again about the possibilties in case g), above, there could, as well, be a bit clearer election result, where the SPD benefits more from it's role as the main opposition, and does significantly better, while the DDP does quite a bit worse...

case g-forte SPD 273; Zentrum 84; NSDAP 75; DDP 46; BVP 26; KPD 24; DNVP 6; BBB 4; Ldvo 1; Ldbu 2.

As a result, the SPD would hold a narrow majority - without a coalition. What would the non-left parties do? Support the government? Form a hard opposition?

Until February of 1933, when Eberts second term will be up, the economy might have started to somewhat recover, but probably not beyond the level of late 1930. And all of the former parties to the right of the SPD are opposing the government - more or less.

If all of them do it hard,there is a fair chance that they will support a unified candidate of the right, and the only one with a chance of victory will be: Adolf Hitler.

With the support of all parties of the right (and center), Hitler would certainly win, and as President, hold a fresh Reichstag election that would throw the SPD out and an NSDAP majority in (most likely).

Of course, the Zentrum leaders might have the good sense to support a third term for Ebert, who thus might get re-elected.

With the economy further recovering until late in 1934, when the next Reichstag election would be due, the SPD might still remain strong enough that they could either form a coalition with the Zentrum, or rule with a minority government that might be tolerated by either Zentrum or KPD. The failure to take power would then lead to a realignemt to the right, and by 1936, the peril would be over...
 
No election in 1930, but in 1932

And now, let's examine the 4 scenarios where the (SPD-lead) coalition formed in 1928 holds a full legislature, or where there is a switch from the Zentrum as second party in the coalition to the DDP.

In all those cases, the ruling parties will suffer horribly in the election, held on schedule late in 1932, because - whatever their economic policies, there is a global depression, and the economic situation will definitely be much worse than it was at the start of the legislature, and for that, the government will get the blame.. (that the situation might be significantly better than OTL at the same time wouldn't matter, because that wouldn't be what the ATL voters would compare with...)

So, the opposition would benefit - to the left, this would certainly be the KPD, with the long period in which the SPD did lead the government.

To the right, there would certainly be some new force, and for that the NSDAP would still be the best bet. Of course, they would be untested in a national election, and therefore, there OTL voter shares from 1932 are not in the cards - but they might have time to prove themselves in several local and state elections, and therefore, to the public, have emerged as a viable force.

And - as a speciality - the extreme loyalty of the Zentrum and BVP voters to their party would still remain in force, as IOTL.

So, if there have been four years of a SPD-Zentrum coalition, with the DDP in the opposition, they could move to the right, form an electoral alliance with the remnants of the DNVP. This might reduce the appeal of the NSDAP somewhat, and big business might feel that it's not absolutely necessary to keep funding the Nazis. In that case, the 1932 election could turn out as follows (always with 541 seats total)



results case a) DDP(+DNVP) 180; KPD 93; Zentrum 88;SPD 79; NSDAP 67; BVP 34; others – none

so there could be a DDP-Zentrum-BVP coalition = 302 seats
or a DDP-NSDAP-BVP coalition - 271 seats, just a majority of one...
or, of course, a DDP, Zentrum, NSDAP and BVP coalition, with a huge majority of 369 seats..

anyway - in the Presidential election, either the candidate of the united right (not Hitler, but the new DDP leader) wins, or Ebert is re-elected with support of Zentrum and KPD - or the DDP candidate wins in a 4 way race..

Whatever - the NSDAP will be under control, a non Hitler will be President, the economy will somewhat recover during the legislature, and the coalition likely last. Therefore, the NSDAP is likely to disintegrate before the next election.
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b) If, OTOH, the Zentrum was replaced by the DDP as a coalition partner, and the economic situation is still worse in 1932 compared to the time of change, the DDP will get more of the blame, and the Zentrum will claim that they got it right in not co-operating with the SPD. In such a case, the extremes will do much better:

results case b) NSDAP 162; KPD 110; Zentrum 101; SPD 86; DDP 46; BVP 36; others – none

NSDAP and KPD together hold a narrow majority, but won't form a coalition...
a NSDAP - Zentrum - BVP coalition would hold a larger majority of 299, but this would certainly be a difficult alliance. But probably the coalition negotiations continue until the presidential election is due - Hitler is elected President handily, and the next election - in may 1933 - brings - with a still split left - a secure NSDAP majority...

d) The coalition during the 1928 - 1932 legislature was always SPD-DDP, thus the DDP will get even more of the blame.. - due to less spoiler effects to the right, the NSDAP emerges as the undisputed leader..

results case d) NSDAP 228; KPD 104; Zentrum 87; SPD 81; BVP 32, DDP 9, others -none

While the NSDAP has no majority, they could form a majority government with any of the three next parties - the Zentrum looks still as the most promising partner. There is little doubt that Hitler will win the Presidential election in February of 1933, unless he feels save enough to remain Chancellor and lets on of his supporters run for the Presidency. Anyway - Nazi takeover is pretty assured...

f) If there was a large coalition (SPD,DDP,Zentrum) - they will share the blame - although, thanks to it's strong voter loyalty, the Zentrum will suffer least.. The convergence to a two party system might get under way, although not in an expected sense...

results case f) NSDAP 227; KPD 137; Zentrum 74; SPD 71; BVP 32, DDP 0, others – none as well

coalition options: NSDAP - Zentrum - or KPD - Zentrum - SPD - if the popular front concept would have been already developped at the Komintern, the later might be an option. But, unfortunately, it's quite unlikely.
So it's most likely the former, with Hitler winning the Presidency and taking over ('saving Germany from Communism...')

So, to summarize - from the 7 coalition scenarios in 1928, about half still lead to a Nazi-takeover, and unfortunately, it are mostly those with more political stability and no election in 1930...
 
Concluding remarks - as to why FPTP would not preclude Nazi-takover

Why would the party system not converge to a stable two party system ITTL, as shoule be expected with FPTP?

Answer:

First: the period of 13 years is just to short, with the pre-existing fragmentation, and the situation is to unstable (international politics and economy..)

So it's difficult for a moderate left party to edge out the far left, especially if the moderate left sometimes forms the government, or is at least part of it. And it's not easy for the far left party to squeeze the moderate left party, if the later is often not part of the government, and can re-juvenate in opposition.

And there would be two significant left parties from the start, as the war and it's imediate aftermath had led to enough bad blood within the left to avoid the split..

But why can a moderate-right party not dominate the field? There are two factors - first, political catholicism won't go away, and therefore, a unity among the moderate-right on a secular basis is not possible - second - the peace threaty, inflation, Ruhr occupation,Red scare and the depression will agitate the right-leaning populace enough that a stable dominance of the moderate right seems impossible - the situation will be bad enough that an opening for a radical right party will errupt, especially once the leading moderate-right party shares government responsability.

And why will political catholicism not go away - or - in other words - why will Zentrum and BVP remain significant parties, but not become the unifiying party of the moderate right?

This is the result of Bismarcks 'Kulturkampf'. Catholics organized to defend particular catholic interests - they felt attacked by the state, and under siege. Therefore, they closed ranks. This was still valid during all of OTL's Weimbar period, where Zentrum and BVP had extremely stable voter support, whatever happened around them.

But as the Catholic voter base is concentraded in some regions, they would not suffer from FPTP - in many regions, Zentrum or BVP would hold a strong plurality, while in others, they are close to non-existant. And in their strongholds, the other leading party was usually either the SPD, or in industrial areas even the KPD - and never another right-wing party (at least before the steep ascendancy of the NSDAP).
And in rural areas in Bavaria, the second party was often the Bavarian Peasant League, even less a national party.

To do away with that split, you probably need a long lasting majority of the SPD - say for at least two full legislatures - with a collapse of the non-catholic right. In that case, the Zentrum might open up to non-catholic Christians and moderate secular conservatives, and become the leading party to the right.[1] Alternatively, confessional orientation could go away after a few decades of political stability, and therefore, a secular moderat right party could, eventually, emerge as valid force in a three way race even in old Catholic strongholds, but this would need time.

[1] This was basically what CDU/CSU did after WW II, but of course this was further facilitated by the fact that most of the former Zentrum strongholds had ended up in West-Germany, while the GDR had goten the majority of the lands that had been a desert for the Zentrum before the war..
 
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To do away with that split, you probably need a long lasting majority of the SPD - say for at least two full legislatures - with a collapse of the non-catholic right. In that case, the Zentrum might open up to non-catholic Christians and moderate secular conservatives, and become the leading party to the right.[1] Alternatively, confessional orientation could go away after a few decades of political stability, and therefore, a secular moderat right party could, eventually, emerge as valid force in a three way race even in old Catholic strongholds, but this would need time.

[1] This was basically what CDU/CSU did after WW II, but of course this was further facilitated by the fact that most of the former Zentrum strongholds had ended up in West-Germany, while the GDR had gotten the majority of the lands that had been a desert for the Zentrum before the war..

Which leads to another interesting what-if? - What Germany had remained unified after World War II (whatever way you get it to remain so, but unified and democratic and either neutral or allied to the western allies).....how would that affect the electoral landscape for the SPD, Zentrum and CDU/CSU and other parties?
 
FPTP generally screws up the game for splinter parties, which pretty much is what the NSDAP was until the end of the 20's.

In a system where - however small your party is - you get representation in the parliament, it is possible to found a new party. Especially if you have a political genius like Hitler.

If not, you're screwed, since you can scream the loudest on your local market place - you won't get a share in the media since you ain't playing a part in politics. That's why there's no Third Party in th US and that's why the NSDAP could never have developed enough momentum to gain power - if FPTP was introduced in 1918 rather than, say, 1930.

So, he probably might have joined a party already established, for example the DVP or the DNVP.
 
Which leads to another interesting what-if? - What Germany had remained unified after World War II (whatever way you get it to remain so, but unified and democratic and either neutral or allied to the western allies).....how would that affect the electoral landscape for the SPD, Zentrum and CDU/CSU and other parties?

Of course, how you get there would have mattered - but that aside -
IMO it's entirely possible that there would be enough room for a conservative party in the tradition of the DNVP if all of OTL's GDR territory would be part of a united post-war Germany, or even Pomerania and Silesia as well (keeping East-Prussia seems a bit much). There have been various conservative splinter groups in OTL's West Germany, but they were not very favored by the allies. Although some of them (as well as the historic Zentrum and the Bavarian Party) got seats in the first Bundestag, they finally were edged out by the CDU/CSU.

But with a larger area were the old-zentrum had been very weak, it's far less clear that the CDU and CSU would be able to dominate the Christian and Conservative sector. So we might see the KVP (Conservative Peoples Party) as the strong force of the right, and the CDU would much less expand, or even not be able to supplant the Zentrum.

Thus, the party system might be much closer to that of the Weimar period - if there is no split of the country, opposition to communism might as well be weaker than IOTL's West Germany, and thus, the KPD might remain a significant force for some time...
 
FPTP generally screws up the game for splinter parties, ....

that's why the NSDAP could never have developed enough momentum to gain power - if FPTP was introduced in 1918 rather than, say, 1930..

Well, I have been arguing the contrary through all of the above thread :rolleyes:

It's more difficult to start a new party, sure.. but of course, you can always get a mandate via an existing party and then lead a break-away faction...

And if the situation is bad enough, and people are really upset about the government, public rallies and riots can gain enough publicity that you will be noticed - and certainly the situation in 1924 and 1930 ff was desperate enough that their would be an opening for a new force...

[And even if there is no desperate situation - a third party can still develop at a local level, slowly build momentum from their, get some strongholds, and from them win a few seats in Parliament. And when the government screws up big enough, they might replace the leading party on their side of the political spectrum. Even with FPTP, in the UK you always had more than two parties in the Commons...]
 
And if the situation is bad enough, and people are really upset about the government, public rallies and riots can gain enough publicity that you will be noticed - and certainly the situation in 1924 and 1930 ff was desperate enough that their would be an opening for a new force...

[And even if there is no desperate situation - a third party can still develop at a local level, slowly build momentum from their, get some strongholds, and from them win a few seats in Parliament. And when the government screws up big enough, they might replace the leading party on their side of the political spectrum. Even with FPTP, in the UK you always had more than two parties in the Commons...]

Noticed yes, taken seriously, no. Hitler tried that before 1923 and it didn't work out that well. Rallies and riots can certainly do their part, but politics are based on money, and big spenders don't give away their cash to lunatics - or at least not to persons they don't consider being benificial for their cause.

Yes, there are more than two parties in the UK, bit IIRC, it is just plus one. 2 to 3 parties are dominating in a FPTP system and when one party screws up big time, it's the other party's turn.

Building up a party in such a system is especially hard because you can hardly get representation even on a very small level. Ya ain't enuff street cred, bro.
 
2 to 3 parties are dominating in a FPTP system and when one party screws up big time, it's the other party's turn.


I'd call this a rather dogmatic interpretation - once you have a stable two party system in place, this should be the norm [both parties are considered mainstream, and thus largely exchangeable..] - unless the screwing up continues for some time, then the chances for third parties from outside the mainstream will arrise... (there are examples were one of the two big parties was replaced by a new force, or where a leading party vanished..).

Forming a stable two party system is more difficult if you have strong regional differences. A period of 12 years would be to short to establish it in Weimar Germany - Zentrum and BVP wouldn't go away (strongholds in catholic areas) - but are unlikely to successfully expand in to the protestant areas - unless all other parties to the right are eliminated due to infighting, and you get a stable 8 - 12 years of SPD majorities...

And of course, even if something like a two party system would develop, *Hitler might decide that building a new party is to difficult and join the leading right-wing party. As many politicians - in many countries - were not really opposed to authoritarianism - and crisis as a pretext for switching to emergency rule are not in short supply - he might still rise to power as the leader of the radical faction of that party that manages to take over and establish a dictatorship - and this would not necessarily mean a less malign regime..
 
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