First Italian-Ethiopain war Ethiopia push on

After the victory at battle of adwa ,Ethophia push on Eritrea and Italian Somalia. Could they succeed in taking one or both of them. What would be the aftermath
 
After the victory at battle of adwa ,Ethophia push on Eritrea and Italian Somalia. Could they succeed in taking one or both of them. What would be the aftermath

If they do succeed in crushing the Italians, Ethiopia might never be colonized. I don't see Mussolini trying anything if Italy got crushed this badly last time.
 
After the victory at battle of adwa ,Ethophia push on Eritrea and Italian Somalia. Could they succeed in taking one or both of them. What would be the aftermath

No, while there were no taste to continue the war due to the cost, being throw at the sea by the local is a too great humiliation for Italy.
Basically the war will continue, Italy will send reinforcement even if it will be costly (monetary speaking) and will finish the job.
Better remember that while Italy was defeated at Aduwa, it still controlled the Ethiopian region of Tigrè and at the same time was fighting Mahdist incursion from Sudan.
 
No, while there were no taste to continue the war due to the cost, being throw at the sea by the local is a too great humiliation for Italy.
Basically the war will continue, Italy will send reinforcement even if it will be costly (monetary speaking) and will finish the job.
Better remember that while Italy was defeated at Aduwa, it still controlled the Ethiopian region of Tigrè and at the same time was fighting Mahdist incursion from Sudan.

Could italy take over Ethophia with extra troops or would they just be slaughtered
 
Could italy take over Ethophia with extra troops or would they just be slaughtered
Certainly. OTL the Ethiopians outnumbered the Italians about 6 to 1. About a fifth were armed with modern equipment and half of the Italian troops were poorly trained colonials. They were also advised and trained by Russian officers. Even then, the Ethiopians suffered more casualties. If they not only beat the Italians, but conquer Italy's colonies, the Italians are likely to send an army to take it back and Ethiopia entirely.
 
Could italy take over Ethophia with extra troops or would they just be slaughtered

Casualty will be heavy for the italian, expecially in the pacification...but the ethiopians will be massacrated.
Said that, a total takeover is not in the plan, too costly and long; probably the Tigrè will be annexed to Eritrea and Abyssinia will become a protectorate of Italy...at least nominally or something else to save the face of both side.
 
I know it's ASB but somehow this leads to visions of the Negus rolling back the Italians and ending up sitting in Rome after conquering Italy.

That would be a very interesting TL :p
 
What was the remaining Italian troop strength in Eritrea and Somalia at the time? The campaign that ended in Adwa was a near-run thing - the Ethiopian army was almost out of supplies by the time of the battle - and if Menelik went over to the attack, he'd have to keep the army together while fighting Italians who were dug in for defense. If he had to do so against significant Italian forces, he'd be unlikely to succeed.

On the other hand, a more complete victory at Adwa - say, one in which the entire Italian force was either killed or captured - followed by a limited Ethiopian offensive and diplomatic overtures to rebellious Eritrean chieftains might work better. If the Italians were facing rebellion behind the lines, they might not be able to dig in against an Ethiopian attack. At that point, if Menelik invests the ports, the Italian army would have a hell of a time retaking the colony.
 
I tried a TL on this premise some years ago. I am embarrassed remembering it, because it was written in a questionable English and quite sloppily planned (I was initially planning a "Fashoda" war that Ethiopia should have won on the French side, and I then realized it was impossible, so I had a *Fashoda crisis built out proportion and fizzled out short of war when a war was required).
With my current knowledge, I would say that Italy had certainly the possibility of eking out a full victory out a prolonged war (annexing Tigre and puppetizing the rest of Ethiopia, as others have said) albeit at a great cost. A cost that Italy would have probably been willing to bear if the alternative was losing Eritrea entirely... but that was never a likely prospect.
Menelik's war aims were more ambitious than what he settled for after Adwa (the are north of the Mareb that Italy had occupied was a key reason for the war in the first place); IOTL, he realized that he couldn't afford pushing much more, but there was indeed a small window of oppurtunity immediately after Adwa, had the battle been even more decisive or, critically, less costly to the Ethiopian host (they suffered staggering casualties).
So, a better Adwa could easily result in Menelik choosing to invade Eritrea.
He'll face considerable opposition, and time would be of the essence, but there IS a small chance that he can take Asmara and dig in before major Italian reinforcements arrive (and I agree that they will).
I think you may have a second decisive battle somewhere between Asmara and Massawa from there. The Italians would be better placed but still badly outnumbered.
 
What was the remaining Italian troop strength in Eritrea and Somalia at the time?

Essentially nonexistent in Somalia - but the Ethiopians had little way to project their power there either, particularly while heavily engaged in Eritrea.
Eritrean forces were more substantial and could have put out a noticeable resistance - if the loyalty of Eritreans themselves and other non-white recruits could be secured, which depends - many Muslims may stay on the Italian side, most of the less numerous Copts likely won't - but then again, this only holds as long as Italians have somewhat of a perceived fair chance of winning -. Italian troops were pretty thin on the ground, but they held fortified strongpoints and cities, and were better armed and supplied - individually.
 
The Italians cannot accept this. Being thrown out of their colonies by Africans? No one would ever take them seriously again and all their pretensions of being a great power would be ruined. They'll just keep fighting till they win, they cannot afford to lose.
 
The Italians cannot accept this. Being thrown out of their colonies by Africans? No one would ever take them seriously again and all their pretensions of being a great power would be ruined. They'll just keep fighting till they win, they cannot afford to lose.

If, by some miracle, the Ethiopians manage to take and hold Massawa, there's little the Italians can do about it. Yeah, they might try something in Somalia, but the cost would as easily bankrupt Italy anyway.
Italy could hardly afford a protracted struggle.
 
If, by some miracle, the Ethiopians manage to take and hold Massawa, there's little the Italians can do about it. Yeah, they might try something in Somalia, but the cost would as easily bankrupt Italy anyway.
Italy could hardly afford a protracted struggle.
It can afford a long war bwtter than Ethiopia.
 
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Lots of people are saying that Italy will fight to victory, no matter the cost. This makes sense to me, and I sort of get the impression that, with such an attitude, they can win against Abyssinia. But there are a few things that I am thinking about:

- Can this war be dragged out a long while, even supposing some Italian successes when they invade Eritrea (which we will accept has been invaded by Menelik)? And if so, at what point does domestic agitation become a problem?

- Does Italy have any enemies that would feel the desire to intervene and be problematic? I am especially thinking Russia, which apparently had some affinity for Abyssinia as another "Orthodox" nation - or at least so I have gathered from reading some threads on this forum.

Italy obviously needs to fight hard, because everything is riding on it, so I am wondering how Italy can fight so hard, and face such difficulty, that indeed it does become completely discredited as a serious player on the world stage. And the Abysinnians get sea access.
 
- Does Italy have any enemies that would feel the desire to intervene and be problematic? I am especially thinking Russia, which apparently had some affinity for Abyssinia as another "Orthodox" nation - or at least so I have gathered from reading some threads on this forum.

Italy obviously needs to fight hard, because everything is riding on it, so I am wondering how Italy can fight so hard, and face such difficulty, that indeed it does become completely discredited as a serious player on the world stage. And the Abysinnians get sea access.

The only nations able to intervene were the Britian and france and there not joinning
 
Lots of people are saying that Italy will fight to victory, no matter the cost. This makes sense to me, and I sort of get the impression that, with such an attitude, they can win against Abyssinia. But there are a few things that I am thinking about:

- Can this war be dragged out a long while, even supposing some Italian successes when they invade Eritrea (which we will accept has been invaded by Menelik)? And if so, at what point does domestic agitation become a problem?

- Does Italy have any enemies that would feel the desire to intervene and be problematic? I am especially thinking Russia, which apparently had some affinity for Abyssinia as another "Orthodox" nation - or at least so I have gathered from reading some threads on this forum.

Italy obviously needs to fight hard, because everything is riding on it, so I am wondering how Italy can fight so hard, and face such difficulty, that indeed it does become completely discredited as a serious player on the world stage. And the Abysinnians get sea access.
1) In a conventional war? No. In a guerilla war? Absolutely. Guerilla warfare is made to even the odds when going up against a more powerful enemy. In any case. I'm fairly certain that the Italian civilians would be with it. They were very angry about Adowa. It was a very sloppy operation.

2) Thatmight have something to do with Alexander Pushkin, the Russian Shakespeare. An interesting fact is that he had a distant Ethiopian ancestor who was either a slave or a friend of Peter the Great. The connection goes back quite a bit. Russia TV once made a list of the greatest Russians in history and Pushkin made the Top 12. He's a very respected Russian.

3) They just needed better preparation. OTL, they still could have won it. The Ethiopians army was significantly larger, but from what I read they were running low on food and ammunition.
 
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