Finnish SFSR or the People's Republic of Finland

In my opinion it's miraculous that Finland remained sovereign even after an invasion by the USSR and it's involvement with the Third Reich. Argue all you want that Finland had rugged terrain and was pretty much what Sweden and Switzerland was to the Nazi's but I believe that the Soviets had the motivation in to incorporate what they had lost after WW1.

If Finland were to come under Soviet control how would it happen? Would it be annexed by the Soviets during the Winter War? Would it be annexed by the Soviets during their counterattack through Europe? Or would it be incorporated into the Eastern bloc after WW2 and be a Soviet puppet?

Any of your own conclusions are allowed...
 
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Before Winter War USSR claimed areas from Karelian isthmus. Maybe government of Finland comply and then USSR could occupy Finland like Baltia.
 
Before Winter War USSR claimed areas from Karelian isthmus. Maybe government of Finland comply and then USSR could occupy Finland like Baltia.

That's precisely why the Finnish government turned down the Soviet ultimatum regarding Karelia, doing so would have forced them to turn over the area that was part-and-parcel of Finland's defensive network and basically the only significant obstacle that separated the Red Army from Helsinki.

There is no sitting Finnish government in that situation that could possibly have accepted that ultimatum.

The best way to accomplish this PoD is to have a better Soviet performance in the Winter War anyway, maybe Stalin has a falling-out with Voroshilov and puts Timoshenko in from the start, there's a wide variety of ways to improve Soviet performance in the war.

But really if you look at the Soviet habit with regards to old Russian Empire territories that they got, those places were pretty universally annexed, the only places that weren't were places that were viewed as too problematic to annex outright, such as Poland.

Stalin's stance on Finland was much different, and really a place that put up such a resistance to the USSR... I'm not sure Stalin would trust it as anything other than Russified beyond all possible measure.
 
Maybe a Communist victory in the Finnish civil war?

Is it possible that it could happen after the Continuation War?

Oh yes the Finnish Civil War would have done the trick if the fledgling Russian SFSR could divert its troops to decisively tip the favor to the Red Finnish Army during the Russian Civil War (not much of a chance in my opinion). Britain might intervene since they were already intervening in the Russian Civil War. In the end, if the Red Finns win then they would probably end up signing a treaty with the Soviets to be incorporated into the USSR.

To Noravea: It could happen after the Continuation War only if the Soviets had enough leverage on the Allies to leave Finland under the Soviet's sphere of influence. And by leverage I mean having SOVIET TANKS, MEN, AND GUNS IN FINLAND!
 
Is it possible that it could happen after the Continuation War?

The Red Army just doesn't have the resources to devote for it.

Early-on they're a little engaged with Germans pounding on the doors of Leningrad and later on they're throwing the Germans back and moving into Eastern Europe. Stalin and co. were pragmatists, not fools, they weren't about to risk setbacks in the main attraction for a sideshow military campaign in Finland.

Maybe a Communist victory in the Finnish civil war?

This is also a perfectly-serviceable PoD.
 
Oh yes the Finnish Civil War would have done the trick if the fledgling Russian SFSR could divert its troops to decisively tip the favor to the Red Finnish Army during the Russian Civil War (not much of a chance in my opinion). Britain might intervene since they were already intervening in the Russian Civil War. In the end, if the Red Finns win then they would probably end up signing a treaty with the Soviets to be incorporated into the USSR.

But aren't the swedishes maybe ready to help the White side too? And quite close, as other scandinavian nations..
 
The Red hasn't much possibilities on Finnish Civil War. Their army was loosely organized, untrained and inexperienced. And in Russia was civil war so they can't help much.
 
But aren't the swedishes maybe ready to help the White side too? And quite close, as other scandinavian nations..

Might depend on the Germans and the Åland Islands. It might be tempting for the Swedes to han land as the Norwegians and Danes did, though it might have them being seen as jackles pouncing on smaller area when everyone else is too warn out from fighting to care.
 
In my opinion it's miraculous that Finland remained sovereign even after an invasion by the USSR and it's involvement with the Third Reich. Argue all you want that Finland had rugged terrain and was pretty much what Sweden and Switzerland was to the Nazi's but I believe that the Soviets had the motivation in to incorporate what they had lost after WW1.

If Finland were to come under Soviet control how would it happen? Would it be annexed by the Soviets during the Winter War? Would it be annexed by the Soviets during their counterattack through Europe? Or would it be incorporated into the Eastern bloc after WW2 and be a Soviet puppet?

Any of your own conclusions are allowed...

These are the most realistic scenarios in my opinion, in order of likeliness:

1) Defeat during Summer 1944, occupied, made into a independent satellite part of a *Warsaw Pact.

2) Defeat in the Winter War in 1940, occupied, made into an initially "independent" satellite, pretty soon incorporated into the USSR.

3) Going the way of the Baltic countries after agreeing to a land swap with the USSR in 1939, with the same results as in 2)

4) Reds win a Civil War in 1917-1919, with essentially the same results as in 2)

5) Occupied by the Red Army after a domestic Communist coup in 1944-1948, with the same results as in 1)

6) Occupied by the Red Army after an armistice in 1944-45, with the same results as in 1)
 
The Red Army just doesn't have the resources to devote for it.

The troops they had on the Northern Front wernt insignificant, and if better used could've taken much of Southern Finland.


Early-on they're a little engaged with Germans pounding on the doors of Leningrad and later on they're throwing the Germans back and moving into Eastern Europe. Stalin and co. were pragmatists, not fools, they weren't about to risk setbacks in the main attraction for a sideshow military campaign in Finland.

A couple of POD's such as a better performance by the Red Army in some campaigns, a reduction of German support to the Finns.

Perhaps even as in Hungary & elsewhere the imposition of a Finnish regime more to the liking of Berlin, assuming Hitler gets annoyed with Finnish intransigence or catches wind of their plans to drop out of the war.

Such a POD would alsmost require that the Soviets occupy Finland. And once they're in, they wont leave.
 
The Red hasn't much possibilities on Finnish Civil War. Their army was loosely organized, untrained and inexperienced. And in Russia was civil war so they can't help much.

A problem was that they pretty much didn't think that they were starting a civil war but a revolution. It was somewhat surprise for them when they found that there was resistance against them.
 
A couple of POD's such as a better performance by the Red Army in some campaigns, a reduction of German support to the Finns.

Perhaps even as in Hungary & elsewhere the imposition of a Finnish regime more to the liking of Berlin, assuming Hitler gets annoyed with Finnish intransigence or catches wind of their plans to drop out of the war.

Such a POD would alsmost require that the Soviets occupy Finland. And once they're in, they wont leave.

It would also be easy to tweak the Finnish deployment so that even more troops are (still) in East Karelia during the Soviet attack on the Isthmus, making it that much more likely for the Finnish front to collapse. It was quite close to that IOTL as it was.

Assuming Finland becomes as much a battlefield between the Soviets and the Germans in '44-'45 as Hungary did, for example, what would that mean in terms of the general situation on the Eastern Front? Both sides might be using troops that IOTL were used more south, from Bagration onwards. On the other hand, if we are talking about just a Soviet occupation, with German troops still withdrawn from Lapland, that would mean that the occupation would cost the USSR troops that would be far more valuable against the Germans.

Anyway, I'd see this a costly and ultimately futile sideshow for both the Soviets and the Germans, and of course a tragic accident for the Finnish people.
 
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It would also be easy to tweak the Finnish deployment so that even more troops are (still) in East Karelia during the Soviet attack on the Isthmus, making it that much more likely for the Finnish front to collapse. It was quite close to that IOTL as it was.

Assuming Finland becomes as much a battlefield between the Soviets and the Germans in '44-'45 as Hungary did, for example, what would that mean in terms of the general situation on the Eastern Front? Both sides would be using troops that IOTL were used more south, from Bagration onwards.

Anyway, I'd see this a costly and ultimately futile sideshow for both the Soviets and the Germans, and of course a tragic accident for the Finnish people.

Frankly I doubt the fighting would reach the scale or ferocity as it did in Hungary, even the residual Soviet deployments against Finland comprised huge numbers of troops.


Still assuming Hitler has another one of his Olympian flashes of ‘’insight’’ then the troops and the steady trickle of supplies & reinforcements to keep them combat-worthy, could be scraped together and sent to Finland.


As for the knock on effect it’s hard to say, the Wehrmacht was clearly beaten and the Red Army has far more men & material to shift from one front to another. I don’t see much change as far as the Northern Front in the Baltic & East Prussia is concerned that was always going to be a bloody slugging match.

As for the others it really depends, the German Southern & Central Fronts may collapse quicker as Hitler will still insist on holding everything & throwing away troops he didnt have on useless counter-attacks.
 
Oh yes the Finnish Civil War would have done the trick if the fledgling Russian SFSR could divert its troops to decisively tip the favor to the Red Finnish Army during the Russian Civil War (not much of a chance in my opinion). !

Yes, a chance. Larglely because the workers of Helsinki basically held it for a while before the Finnish Whites were able to counter-attack and win. This is definetly the most interesting of the alternate Finish Workers Republic outcomes and would of had, IMO, profound effects not only on the revolutoins in Germany but also possibly Norway and Sweden as well not to mention strengthening Trotsky's hand politically. V E R Y interesting.
 
Yes, a chance. Larglely because the workers of Helsinki basically held it for a while before the Finnish Whites were able to counter-attack and win. This is definetly the most interesting of the alternate Finish Workers Republic outcomes and would of had, IMO, profound effects not only on the revolutoins in Germany but also possibly Norway and Sweden as well not to mention strengthening Trotsky's hand politically. V E R Y interesting.

Just keeping Helsinki is no use if they don't have better organization and more weapons. And as I said, Reds really weren't prepared for the war as they thought the whole declaration of the Finnish Worker's Republic more as a formality after which they would be in the full control of country (which didn't come true.)
 

ingemann

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But aren't the swedishes maybe ready to help the White side too? And quite close, as other scandinavian nations..

Sweden stop at Stockholm municipality's border in most Swedish decision makers opinion. While a lot of indiviual Swedes would help or fight for the Finns, the Swedish government wouldn't help them.
 
Yes, a chance. Larglely because the workers of Helsinki basically held it for a while before the Finnish Whites were able to counter-attack and win. This is definetly the most interesting of the alternate Finish Workers Republic outcomes and would of had, IMO, profound effects not only on the revolutoins in Germany but also possibly Norway and Sweden as well not to mention strengthening Trotsky's hand politically. V E R Y interesting.

I do not believe that there were actually any parties calling for the abolition of the monarchy. The last major party quietly removed it from there agenda when the King, who had been elected, allowed them to form a government within much fuss when they gained enough followers for a coalition.
 
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