alternatehistory.com

I was wondering, what would be the likely effects if the Finns hadn't launched the Continuation War in 1941? Assume for the moment that Finland does better in the Winter War still having to cede the Riybachi peninsula and Salla as in our timeline plus Petsamo in the north, in the south however the border runs from just south-east of Hoilola down to the centre of Valaam island and then south-west roughly parallel to the modern border allowing then to retain more of Karelia and Viborg. There's no lease of the Hanko peninsula but they do still have to cede the five islands of Suursaari, Tytarsaari, Lavansaari, Peninsaari, and Seiskari in the Gulf of Finland.

With that being the case if the German invasion of Norway a month or so later had failed giving Finland a land border, albeit in the far north, with the Allies do people think it would be enough to make the Finns feel sufficiently secure in their position to declare armed neutrality rather than joining the Germans? If they decided to remain neutral I could see them doing like a number of other countries did and declaring war on Germany when if was obvious that they were losing and no longer a threat, in Finland's case probably after the Battle of Kursk, and inviting a small number of Western Allied military units into the country from Norway to help 'co-ordinate' things. Without an Allied Control Commission, no guilt from the Continuation War as in our timeline, and by dint of being on the winning side a founder member of the United Nations what does this do for Finnish-Soviet relations? Do they still get Finlandised or are they able to chart a more independent path?
Top