Finland keeps their 1939 borders

Is there any way for the Finns to keep their 1939 borders with a POD after the start of the Continuation War?
So by December 1941 the UK had already declared war on Finland after the Finns refused to stop their war with the Soviet Union. How could they? They were certainly not comfortable on Hitler's side but should they betray the Germans with a separate peace they would be immediatly swept by the Nazis with no chance of help from the Allies.
They did switch sides in 1944 when the war tide had already changed and was dramatically pending against Nazi Germany. WI they had done this earlier?

Option 1:
The Finns switch sides in late 1941, 1942 or early 1943.
I imagine the Soviets could respect an armistice with Finland as they had their hands full by then and would be satisfied to see East Karelia being delivered back to them.
Somehow the Western Allies find a way to protect Finland from German occupation. The Finns could covertly arrange for the Western Allies to attack Petsamo and switch sides by then.

Option 2:
The Finns would stop their advances upon reaching their 1939 borders. Would the Germas have tolerated a separate peace in 1941? More than this: since the objectives of Operation Silver Fox failed would Germany accept to withdraw their troops from Petsamo and start respecting Finnish neutrality? Hard!
But could anything like this be pulled off: a neutral Finland after the start of the Continuation War?

Which of these are possible? If neither, is there any chance for Finland to keep their 1939 borders after being yet again invaded by the Soviets in 1941?
 
Third option:
Germany wins the War!! :eek: I doubt Finland could make a big difference, but maybe becoming all-out allies of Germany, and having the Finns continueing their advance towards Leningrad and Murmansk (Or all out supporting the Germans in their efforts towards these two critical objectives) could make a small, but perhaps vital difference....and the two objectives could then perhaps be seized.

A lot of ifs....but still an option.
 
Is there any way for the Finns to keep their 1939 borders with a POD after the start of the Continuation War?

I think the best chance would be a hybrid which would require almost perfect hindsight.

In late 1941 of OTL it was already too late to switch sides easily; main parts of the Finnish Army had had extremely heavy casualties (especially in infantry units) and were mired deep in Eastern Karelia. Being mired in Eastern Karelian quaqmire meant two things: First, it would be difficult to explain that after a nationalist dream of conquest (meaning not the achievement of 1939 borders but Aunus and Viena) had been achieved Finland should give up the territory conquered from Soviet Union. Second, if Finland could pull it off the Germans could intervene extremely easily from Northern Finland and could not be dislodged due to lack of reserves.

If Finnish military leadership could refrain itself from conquest of Eastern Karelia and would simply stop after reaching 1939 border the Army would be in quite good condition to meet even the German threat. Then the switch could be made in 1942 or 1943, right after it was clear that Germany would lose. Army would have enough reserves to prevent any German intervention. Finland might well keep the 1939 borders with slight modification IMHO if Stalin was sensible. OTOH, Stalin was not sensible as was displayed by his 1939-1941 policy towards Finland which drove peace sworning neutral into an aggressive alliance with Germany.
 
Option 1:
The Finns switch sides in late 1941, 1942 or early 1943.
I imagine the Soviets could respect an armistice with Finland as they had their hands full by then and would be satisfied to see East Karelia being delivered back to them.
Somehow the Western Allies find a way to protect Finland from German occupation. The Finns could covertly arrange for the Western Allies to attack Petsamo and switch sides by then.

German economic and military stranglehold makes any separate peace with USSR nigh impossible; vital grain shipments can be stopped and overwhelming military assets can projected in addition to the German forces already on Northern front. Early on WAllies wouldn't be sending limited assets to such a risky mission on periphery theater and even later when some might be available it would be a very dubious choice compared to other possibilities. Not to mention US/UK presence in Finland would be highly straining to Allied-Soviet relations.

There were some type of peace talks on several occasions. In late '41 - early '42 situation appeared simply too good and peace offers were turned down. Apparently in October '42 there was some talks about '39 borders, Soviets supplying the needed grain and US/UK guaranteeing security. This was in consideration but as might be guessed the Germans weren't exactly thrilled and it was dropped. Early '43 there was US mediation attempt but same conditions regarding Germany applied and '39 borders this late seem dubious anyway. From that on I really don't see '39 borders happening.

Option 2:
The Finns would stop their advances upon reaching their 1939 borders. Would the Germas have tolerated a separate peace in 1941? More than this: since the objectives of Operation Silver Fox failed would Germany accept to withdraw their troops from Petsamo and start respecting Finnish neutrality? Hard!
But could anything like this be pulled off: a neutral Finland after the start of the Continuation War?
Can't see this one happening. Adolf willingly giving that away in such a situation? His not pulling that sort of stuff even when situation is utter c***, he definetly ain't doing it when his still winning overall.

Either way, any early separate peace requires German stranglehold on Finland reduced significantly. Maybe Germans utterly fail on Norwegian campaign and get thrown back? Although in this case I doubt Finland would be depending on Germany enough to be pulled into the war in the east. Or just plain and simple; they do overall much worse in Barbarossa, not getting to Estonia leading to an earlier peace by default although in this case I'm not sure '39 borders would be attainable. Perhaps alt. Barbarossa plan ignores northern route alltogether gunning for Moscow and/or Ukraine/Caucasus thus leaving southern coast of Gulf of Finland in Soviet hands?

EDIT: forgot the stopping on '39 border in '41 part. I guess it might juuuust be possible but the better defensive line in East Karelia was really a cornerstone on overall strategy.
 
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Third option:
Germany wins the War!! :eek: I doubt Finland could make a big difference, but maybe becoming all-out allies of Germany, and having the Finns continueing their advance towards Leningrad and Murmansk (Or all out supporting the Germans in their efforts towards these two critical objectives) could make a small, but perhaps vital difference....and the two objectives could then perhaps be seized.

A lot of ifs....but still an option.

Finns avoided anything to do with Leningrad like the Black Death. And I think Mannerheim was preconditioning any advance to cut Murmansk railroad on fall of Leningrad. Advance on Murmansk itself was left on German Army of Norway as no forces were available. Becoming true allies willing to push to the brink would require some serious changes much earlier in Finnish politics.
 
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Third option:
Germany wins the War!! :eek:
lol, yeah THAT will work! Even past their '39 borders.

Finland might well keep the 1939 borders with slight modification IMHO if Stalin was sensible.
Which modifications do you have in mind?

There were some type of peace talks on several occasions. In late '41 - early '42 situation appeared simply too good and peace offers were turned down. Apparently in October '42 there was some talks about '39 borders, Soviets supplying the needed grain and US/UK guaranteeing security. This was in consideration but as might be guessed the Germans weren't exactly thrilled and it was dropped. Early '43 there was US mediation attempt but same conditions regarding Germany applied and '39 borders this late seem dubious anyway. From that on I really don't see '39 borders happening.
There you go then. If any of those offers had been accepted, Finland could have spent a hard time with the Germans but in the end it would likely survive with its '39 borders.
 
Which modifications do you have in mind?

I guess some changes on Karelian Isthmus + couple islands on Gulf of Finland to placate the security of Leningrad. These would be compensated by land elsewhere in Karelia.

There you go then. If any of those offers had been accepted, Finland could have spent a hard time with the Germans but in the end it would likely survive with its '39 borders.

Well simply put, yes. But... This would require hindsight of epic proportions AND Finnish leaders who'd be willing to risk large scale destruction of significant parts of Finland. Grainshipments would also be cut. IMO, not very likely. Consider that in OTL '44 German retreat from Lapland left it completely razed to the ground. This retreat was done in rather "friendly" manner after Wehrmacht had been utterly devastated in Bagration and had no reserves left to commit. In '41-'43 Germans can't afford Finland setting a dangerous precedent while still having the means and the need to act decisively.

This would also require Finnish leadership to have enough trust on Soviet promises not to occupy the country in the aftermath. That trust was in very short supply and I don't know how it could be changed.
 
Which modifications do you have in mind?

Adjustments on Karelian Isthmus perhaps compensated with land elsewhere. The Soviet 1939 14 October 1939 proposal might be doable as the issue of defense line being cut would be moot.

There you go then. If any of those offers had been accepted, Finland could have spent a hard time with the Germans but in the end it would likely survive with its '39 borders.

After the Army was decimated in "liberating" Eastern Karelia (territory beyond 1939 border) and mired there there was virtually no reserves with which to counter possible German countermoves which might be very strong in 1941-1943 period. With epic hindsight the Eastern Karelian fiasco ("shorter defense line" was actually longer than 1939 border, just smokescreen for acquisition of more territory) could be avoided and the Army would have significant reserve formations with which Finland could a) thwart any Soviet attempt of attack b) could thwart any possible German countermove. In addition as the Finnish truck pool would not be decimated in supplying the frontier outposts deep in Karelia the formations would be more mobile than OTL.

Defense against German countermoves would require perhaps 2-4 divisions worth of troops in addition to troops of OTL which would be available without 1941 Eastern Karelian adventure. Defense of Åland would require one division, Southern Finland perhaps one another and Northern Finland (in addition to historical 3., 6., and 14. Divisions) perhaps one. With this amount of forces any German attempt to capture Åland or perform a coup d'etat in Southern Finland could be eliminated and any attempt of German troops attempting to invade from the North could be eliminated.

Without supplies arriving via Bay of Bothnia German troops in Northern Finland would face either rotting away or withdrawal to Norway, as in OTL.

The other troops could defend Finland against any Soviet attempt of betrayal.
 
Jukra, how do you think it would be possible to 'persuade' the high command into seeing the folly of advancing to East Karelia?
 
Jukra, how do you think it would be possible to 'persuade' the high command into seeing the folly of advancing to East Karelia?

By adopting a different strategy: After 1939 borders are reached the Army will prepare itself to advance right after Soviet total collapse. For Germans whether or not Eastern Karelia is conquered is simply irrelevant; they want Finland to tie in Soviet Forces, provide strategic materials and a basing area for their own advance towards Murmansk.

Thus, after Karelian Isthmus is conquered by end of August 1941 Mannerheim orders Army to reorganize itself. Forces deployed for conquest of Eastern Karelia spend much of their time helping with 1941 harvest, thus eliminating the 1941-1942 food crisis. After harvest period a strong Reserve Corps is organized with two Armoured (motorized / bicycle born infantry divisions really) divisions as it's backbone. This organization is specifically designed to perform the rapid conquest of Eastern Karelia after German capture of Moscow leads into Soviet collapse. The young manpower and vehicles are available due to less casualties than OTL.

German conquest of Moscow does not happen. Thus the troops prepare defensive positions for themselves in order to wait developments of next summer. At the same time significant portion of Army is demobilized in order to provide workers for agriculture and industry.

In Spring 1942 the Soviets launch a small scale offensive against Finnish positions north of Lake Ladoga. With strong reserves available these attempts are wiped out easily.

By the end of 1942 the writing is on the wall for Germany. Even succesful capture of Stalingrad will not ultimately turn German fortunes as the Western invasion will add an another front in 1943 or 1944. Thus right after surrender of 6th Army Finland prepares itself for strategic realignment. This is to be achieved before opening of Finnish coasts from ice blockade in order to eliminate any German quick moves, as any intervention force would have to come through sea.

The Army is fully mobilized, officially in order to hold large scale field exercises and also to be prepared to meet any Soviet offensives. German High Command is approached with an operation idea to capture Leningrad once and for all. This is smokescreen deployed in order to get the last arms and grain shipments from Germany before turning coats...
 
Finns avoided anything to do with Leningrad like the Black Death. And I think Mannerheim was preconditioning any advance to cut Murmansk railroad on fall of Leningrad. Advance on Murmansk itself was left on German Army of Norway as no forces were available. Becoming true allies willing to push to the brink would require some serious changes much earlier in Finnish politics.


I agree very much, that it would require som serious changes in the overall Finnish policy. But talking ATL, i still see it as a option, if the Finns would want to keep their 1939 borders.
 
This would require hindsight of epic proportions AND Finnish leaders who'd be willing to risk large scale destruction of significant parts of Finland
Yeah, I get that: it would be a really hard call and things evolved "naturally" IOTL. Anyway I believe that IOTL the Finnish leadership faired quite well simply because they managed to preserve Finnish independence.


I guess some changes on Karelian Isthmus + couple islands on Gulf of Finland to placate the security of Leningrad. These would be compensated by land elsewhere in Karelia.
Adjustments on Karelian Isthmus perhaps compensated with land elsewhere. The Soviet 1939 14 October 1939 proposal might be doable as the issue of defense line being cut would be moot.
Oh OK. I though you (Jukra) meant some modifications in Finland's favor. Even though that Soviet proposal you mention gives Finland territorial net gains it gives the Soviets strategic advantages that Stalin would definitly be sensible to. :) That's what he originally demanded anyway.

The Army is fully mobilized, officially in order to hold large scale field exercises and also to be prepared to meet any Soviet offensives. German High Command is approached with an operation idea to capture Leningrad once and for all.
Cunning! :D

Thank you all for your insights!
 
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