Finland forced into the USSR after WW2?

wormyguy

Banned
How would that have looked?
Bloody.
Anyone have an idear for a flag etc??
600px-Flag_of_the_Karelo-Finnish_SSR.svg.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karelo-Finnish_Soviet_Socialist_Republic
 
How would that have looked? Anyone have an idear for a flag etc??

I think the moment for inclusion of Finland into Soviet Union itself would have been if Winter War was avoided and Finland took the route of Baltic Republics or the Winter War was lost. If Finland was occupied post-1941 I think Finland would have been a satellite state.

What would have happened? Some years ago I wrote a timeline "Finis Finlandiae" to s.h.w-i usenet group about the first possibility. Depending upon whether Sweden was drawn into Second World War or not I think following trends would have been important, in no particular order of importance:

1.) Swedish minority would probably resettle in Sweden, whether as a result of a deal between USSR/Communist Finland and Sweden or as result of spontaneous movement.

2.) Sweden would join NATO

3.) There would be some guerrilla resistance in Finland against the occupation but it would die off like resistane in Baltic States.

4.) Local intelligentsia would be liquidated.

5.) As a satellite country or part of Soviet Union Finland would most likely be heavily industrialised like it historically was when part of Soviet Five Year Plans after the war. Main products would be ships, advanced metal products and consumer goods.

6.) If Finland was incorporated as a socialist republic to the USSR there would be a mass movement of Russian people into Finland.

7.) If Finland was a satellite country it would play the role which East Germany had in OTL - the most developed socialist country.

8.) After collapse of the USSR a Soviet Republic of Finland would regain independence and the country would be larger than OTL Finland due to addition of Soviet Karelian territories. There would be problems with Russian minority similar to Estonia of today.
 

Hashasheen

Banned
3.) There would be some guerrilla resistance in Finland against the occupation but it would die off like resistane in Baltic States.
It took the Latvians till the 1960's to surrender. Finland would hold out that long, I think.
 
4.) Local intelligentsia would be liquidated.
No. Many of them would flee to Sweden. Some people would be arrested, very few would be shot, much more would survive till 1956 and be released.
Majority of Finnish intellectuals would be allowed to undergo "Socialist re-education" and retain their places in society, with obvious consequences for the Finnish culture.
5.) As a satellite country or part of Soviet Union Finland would most likely be heavily industrialised like it historically was when part of Soviet Five Year Plans after the war. Main products would be ships, advanced metal products and consumer goods.
And almost all of them would become by 1980-ies uncompetitive compared to Western producers, because total planning and vast guaranteed Soviet market would kill business skills. In OTL Finns were free to trade with non-Soviet partners, and they were compelled to compete with best industries of the world. In this TL all Finnish external trade, as well as economy as whole, would be controlled by Moscow, or even owned by Soviet state (in the scenario with Soviet annexation of Finland).
 

Eurofed

Banned
2.) Sweden would join NATO

Which influence would this have on NATO and EU, politically and strategically ? Would Sweden and Norway join EU during the Cold War and be less euroskeptic ?

7.) If Finland was a satellite country it would play the role which East Germany had in OTL - the most developed socialist country.

I doubt it would be the most developed one, but certainly the second or third one, after East Germany and possibly Poland.

8.) After collapse of the USSR a Soviet Republic of Finland would regain independence and the country would be larger than OTL Finland due to addition of Soviet Karelian territories. There would be problems with Russian minority similar to Estonia of today.

More likely like Lithuania, a significant Russian minority but so big as to make a serious problem, I doubt Russian immigration would be substantial as to change the ehtnic balance so much as in Latvia and Estonia.
 

Oddball

Monthly Donor
Which influence would this have on NATO and EU, politically and strategically ? Would Sweden and Norway join EU during the Cold War and be less euroskeptic ?

Regarding Norway, I doubt it. It was the US that provided security to Norway, not EU members.

But with Finland in the USSR an larger part of Norway becomes indefencible. This could lead to Norway accepting deployment of US troops in Norway. Perhaps even nuclear devices.

The reult would then be even more close connection to the US, not rest of Europe.
 
No. Many of them would flee to Sweden. Some people would be arrested, very few would be shot, much more would survive till 1956 and be released. Majority of Finnish intellectuals would be allowed to undergo "Socialist re-education" and retain their places in society, with obvious consequences for the Finnish culture.

I don't see any particular reason why Finnish intelligentsia would not suffer as harshly as Estonian one. Actually, Finnish intelligentsia would fare even worse due to questionable acts in 1918. There would be much sense of revenge, some even justified, in communist actions.

In OTL Finns were free to trade with non-Soviet partners, and they were compelled to compete with best industries of the world. In this TL all Finnish external trade, as well as economy as whole, would be controlled by Moscow, or even owned by Soviet state (in the scenario with Soviet annexation of Finland).

Unfortunately not - that's why there was much non-creative destruction in the Finnish metal and consumer industries during 1990's. I completely agree that the industry would not be as developed as in OTL, and the destruction in post-communist times would be even more extensive.
 
Which influence would this have on NATO and EU, politically and strategically ? Would Sweden and Norway join EU during the Cold War and be less euroskeptic ?

Most probably yes, and there would be much more Scandinavianism as well as Swedish minority of Finland would most likely migrate to Sweden and thus Scandinavian languages would be only spoken in Scandinavian countries, for example. All the advances brought by Nordic co-operation in OTL (such as Scandinavian passport-free area etc.) would be brought in more quickly as there would be no Finnish political leadership trying to act as a brake.

I doubt it would be the most developed one, but certainly the second or third one, after East Germany and possibly Poland.

Well, Finnish GDP was higher than Eastern Germany's in 1939 and in any conceivable scenario the damage due to war would be much less. Also, there would not be Western Germany equivalent for Finland, sucking up the most talented people. As for lagging behind Poland I really don't see that as a possibility due to much more developed economic base, better educated people and (most probably) less destruction due to war.
 
I don't see any particular reason why Finnish intelligentsia would not suffer as harshly as Estonian one. Actually, Finnish intelligentsia would fare even worse due to questionable acts in 1918. There would be much sense of revenge, some even justified, in communist actions.
Well, Soviet terror in Estonia (taken here as proxy for Soviet Finland) wasn't that harsh (you said "liquidation of intelligentsia", yes?). At the height of second occupation purges, in 1944-1945, some 100-200 Estonians were shot, and majority of them were "forest brethren", not intelligentsia.

Täpseid andmeid eestlaste kohta, kellele sel perioodil mõis
teti surmanuhtlus, meil kahjuks ei ole. Üleliiduline statistika
näitab, et neid ei olnud kuigi palju. Terve1944. a. jooksul mõisteti
terves NSVL-s surma 3110, 3027 lasti maha ja ülejäänud
poodi. 1945.aastal oli surmamõistetute üldarv NSVL-s 2308

(2260 lasti maha, ülejäänud poodi).

Absurdne oleks ilmselt arvata, et eestlased moodustasid hukatutest
põhiosa, neid võis ehk olla 100–200.

(there is link there to Aleksandr Dyukov's book about Soviet policy in Estonia, from which I took the quote above; he's apologist of the regime, but, nonetheless, his work uses great amount of sources and isn't too biased).
In 1947 death penalty in the USSR was abolished, and even after its reinstatement in 1950 mass shootings weren't reintroduced. Some ten thousand Estonians were arrested for political reasons after 1944, and 3 to 7 per cent of arrested died annually. Again, absolute majority of them didn't belong to the intelligentsia.
Moreover, Estonian volunteers of the Waffen SS were released en masse in 1945, including even majority of their non-German officers - at the same time as German soldiers were held in camps till mid-1950-ies, while Russian volunteers of Wehrmacht were summarily shot or given 25-year terms. That fact bear witness to relatively liberal policy of the USSR in Estonia after 1944.
Official Estonian White Book about German and Soviet occupations mentions 76 to 125 lecturers purged (some of them were subsequently arrested) from the University of Tartu (only Estonian university at the time), as well as "several dozens" artists and art students arrested after 1944. It doesn't mention number of Estonians shot after 1944. The book gives following table of Estonia's losses during second Soviet occupation​

No. Category Total Survived Irreversible losses 2nd Soviet occupation 1944 89



17. Arrested 30 000 20 000 10 000
18. Deported 23 000 20 000 3 000


19. Perished during the

guerrilla war


3 000 3 000
20. Arrested for political



reasons 195388 300

The Soviet regime in Estonia was much more harsh in 1941, but if Finland would be conquered in 1944 or 1945, it could expect less cruel policy, similar to OTL Estonia of 1944, not of 1941.​
 
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Oddball

Monthly Donor
Most probably yes, and there would be much more Scandinavianism as well as Swedish minority of Finland would most likely migrate to Sweden and thus Scandinavian languages would be only spoken in Scandinavian countries, for example. All the advances brought by Nordic co-operation in OTL (such as Scandinavian passport-free area etc.) would be brought in more quickly as there would be no Finnish political leadership trying to act as a brake.

Most probably no!

More thighter Scandinavian cooperation, yes perhaps. OTL it was the very different position of Sweden and Norway/Denmark that failed a thighter relationship after ww2. With Sweden in NATO this would most certainly change.

But versa EU? Most probably not. Atleast regarding Norway (I do not know that much about Swedish politics :eek: )
 

Eurofed

Banned
But versa EU? Most probably not. Atleast regarding Norway (I do not know that much about Swedish politics :eek: )

Maybe you are right about Norway, but I would expect a NATO-founder Sweden to join the EU very soon after its inception, and prodded by their example, Denmark as well.
 
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