Finland doesn't join Barbarossa despite Winter War?

I've been lurking on the forum for couple years now and I just have to say it has definetly been time well spent. Very educating and interesting overall.

After witnessing a small debate on how 'just' the Finnish decicion to join forces with Germany against USSR was, I figured why not put the board membership to use and ask what people here think.

So, assuming the Winter War still goes as OTL and the peace deal is the same, how plausible would it be for Finland to stay neutral in WW2? How would this affect post war Finland?

Personally, even though teaming up with a side as repulsive as the Nazis wasn't exactly the high point in our history, I doubt there was much chance of avoiding the conflict due to the grievous losses of Winter War.

Your thoughts?
 

yourworstnightmare

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Well, Finland didn't "join Barbarossa". The USSR attacked Finland again, because of Barbarossa, since Finland had clearly aligned herself with Germany, and allowed German troops transit through Finland, i.e. Finland had become a threat to Soviet security. The only way to avoid the Continuation War, is to somehow have Finland not to align with Germany, but considering Finland just came out of the Winter War, and there were no other allies possible, it's probably ASB. After the Winter War complete neutrality is not an option for Finland.
 
Yes, join was perhaps bad wording on my part. The Soviet air attack on 25th June was indeed used as casus belli but even if USSR doesn't bait and declare war I think we'd still eventually attacked.

Anyway wording aside, between winter war and continuation war Germany was indeed in most circles seen as the only option. This was mainly due economic and military reasons. So, any chance to decrease that dependence on Germany?

I was thinking if Germans fail to take Norway in '40 or just don't launch Weserubung that might leave trade to west somewhat more open, even though still hazardous. Would that allow purchase of grain (grain self-sufficiency went downhill after winter war and that's one reason for aligning toward Germany, IIRC I read somewhere it was 70%, someone probably knows better) arms, industrial goods etc, etc in large enough quantities to offset dependence on Germany? Or is it just too little. Or maybe there just isn't enough trust in west after winter war. Of course No/failed Weserubung would lead to all sorts of other things as well...
 
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Well, Finland didn't "join Barbarossa". The USSR attacked Finland again, because of Barbarossa, since Finland had clearly aligned herself with Germany, and allowed German troops transit through Finland, i.e. Finland had become a threat to Soviet security. The only way to avoid the Continuation War, is to somehow have Finland not to align with Germany, but considering Finland just came out of the Winter War, and there were no other allies possible, it's probably ASB. After the Winter War complete neutrality is not an option for Finland.

Make the Brit and French help bigger maybe? with an almost war against the SU? ...
 
A tri-polar WWII?

That could prove interesting. OK, much of this could be ASB:

Hitler didn't really want a war in the west, (allegedly), as he was looking east. What if during the winter war, Hitler turns a blind eye to Allied convoys heading to Finland, maybe through the Swiss secretly agrees a shipping route, (risky as MI6 especially was riddled with workers with Pro Soviet sympathies, if not outright Soviet spies), for the RN/French Navy to use to supply Finland. Any ship straying from the safe passage would be sunk or captured as normal.

It could be done, there'd be quite a few butterflies and a POD probably around 1936 or so with a change in policy towards Poland, (heavily financing a Polish fascist party?), but I guess you could end up with either a series of regional conflicts, Germany, Fascist Poland & Maybe Finland taking on the Soviet Union, Empire of Japan taking on the British Empire, "Minor" European nations and eventually the United States, and Japan potentially having to fight the Soviet Union as well.

If the British and French support Finland against the Soviets then the British and Soviets would not be able to throw their weight in together against the Japanese, although existing tensions would be enough to prevent Britain and France declaring war on Germany, as a Fascist Poland would welcome German troops.

Erm, as ASB as it seems, I can see a British Empire lasting into the 1980s, (Collapsing in much the same way as the Soviet Union did), IF the Soviet Union survives this conflict, then I doubt there'd be much of a cold war as I don't think, taking on the United States, the Japanese Empire could survive, but I don't think we'd have a Communist China as in OTL, maybe a communist Manchuria independent from China, A capitalist China maybe allied to the US.

hmmm.

Cold war MKII
British Empire, (Collapse mid 1980s)
United States of America
Greater German Reich, (assume a transition from Nazi-ism towards "normal" rightwing Empire politics after Death of Hitler, say 1953)

Sorry, totally highjacked the thread, but does give me an idea, no matter how mental, for after I finish Sealion '41.
 
A tri-polar WWII?

That could prove interesting. OK, much of this could be ASB:

Hitler didn't really want a war in the west, (allegedly), as he was looking east. What if during the winter war, Hitler turns a blind eye to Allied convoys heading to Finland, maybe through the Swiss secretly agrees a shipping route, (risky as MI6 especially was riddled with workers with Pro Soviet sympathies, if not outright Soviet spies), for the RN/French Navy to use to supply Finland. Any ship straying from the safe passage would be sunk or captured as normal.

It could be done, there'd be quite a few butterflies and a POD probably around 1936 or so with a change in policy towards Poland, (heavily financing a Polish fascist party?), but I guess you could end up with either a series of regional conflicts, Germany, Fascist Poland & Maybe Finland taking on the Soviet Union, Empire of Japan taking on the British Empire, "Minor" European nations and eventually the United States, and Japan potentially having to fight the Soviet Union as well.

If the British and French support Finland against the Soviets then the British and Soviets would not be able to throw their weight in together against the Japanese, although existing tensions would be enough to prevent Britain and France declaring war on Germany, as a Fascist Poland would welcome German troops.

Erm, as ASB as it seems, I can see a British Empire lasting into the 1980s, (Collapsing in much the same way as the Soviet Union did), IF the Soviet Union survives this conflict, then I doubt there'd be much of a cold war as I don't think, taking on the United States, the Japanese Empire could survive, but I don't think we'd have a Communist China as in OTL, maybe a communist Manchuria independent from China, A capitalist China maybe allied to the US.

hmmm.

Cold war MKII
British Empire, (Collapse mid 1980s)
United States of America
Greater German Reich, (assume a transition from Nazi-ism towards "normal" rightwing Empire politics after Death of Hitler, say 1953)

Sorry, totally highjacked the thread, but does give me an idea, no matter how mental, for after I finish Sealion '41.

Yeah, this sounds pretty crazy:D
 
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