Finacial collapse in 2007

WI Lehman brothers and other finacial problems happened a year earlier.

I am guessing the the Republican party would do worse than in OTL in 2008.

Would that cause the Democrats to be bolder and more progressive and populist

Would more bankers go to jail
 
Why would they do worse?

Well the worst months of job losses occurred right after the 2008 election. Under this scenario they would be in late 2007/early 2008. So by the time of the 2008 election the unemployment rate would be at 10%. So Democrats would probably win by larger margins than OTL.

They might be able to pickup a Senate seat in Georgia, and maybe Kentucky, but that would probably be the best they could do. Maybe they could convince Bob Kerrey to run in Nebraska to give them a shot there. If it looks like the Democrats are going to win big that year, maybe you get some more good candidates to reach for some seats that would be tough to win under normal conditions. So the Democrats could hold a super majority before Specter flips, and If McConnell loses in Kentucky it's possible the Republicans aren't as coordinated in their obstruction in this new timeline.

In the House, Democrats could probably win another 20 seats on top of what they did OTL. So you'd be looking at a House that is 277 Democrats to 158 Republicans.

The Presidential race could be interesting because the primaries will be all about who is best to handle the economic crisis. Perhaps Romney beats out McCain for the GOP nomination. But if he's anything like he is in OTL, I expect him to go down in flames worse than McCain. I don't know if Obama still beats Clinton, and the high unemployment helps Edwards populism play better in a lot of states so that changes some things.
 
Edwards' affair and his wife's battle w/cancer are not butterflied away by this, nor is Riley Hunter's pregnancy - though it easily could be, which will have a dampening effect on his candidacy in TTL. I have a feeling that his populism will come across as shallow in TTL as it did in OTL. An earlier economic collapse will, I imagine, give Obama's OTL "hope and change" message greater power and the give him an edge over Clinton for the Democratic Party nomination in '08.
 
I think Romney does far better than OTL and same with Obama. However I think the electoral map will probably be the same with Romney using his economic background to stand in contrast to the senator's "lack of experience", perhaps republicans can swing florida
 
Senator Kerrey thought about running in 2008. But did not think it was the right thing to do for his family. His son was only 7 then. 11 now and living in Omaha with his Mom and Dad. Kerrey is coming back in the polls. Its single digits now and he has won the first 2 debates. Sorry to give so much current events. I wished he had run in 08 too. But so glad he is running NOW!! But if the collapse had happened in 07 I think Hillary would have won . I think Obama would have been the VEEP. She would have been more ready for the TEA Party NUTS!!
 
Senator Kerrey thought about running in 2008. But did not think it was the right thing to do for his family. His son was only 7 then. 11 now and living in Omaha with his Mom and Dad. Kerrey is coming back in the polls. Its single digits now and he has won the first 2 debates. Sorry to give so much current events. I wished he had run in 08 too. But so glad he is running NOW!! But if the collapse had happened in 07 I think Hillary would have won . I think Obama would have been the VEEP. She would have been more ready for the TEA Party NUTS!!

Now that I think about it I can see Hillary getting it not Obama. Obama had the Iraq War hardcore opposition on his side but that isn't as big of an issue with the economy ruined sooner. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama actually sits it out and Feingold or Gore run (depending on exactly when the collapse happens)
 
A financial crisis in 2007 would have probably tilted the primaries to Hillary despite the defects in her campaign organization. OTL, the early contests were not fought over the economy but over things like the Iraq War. An earlier financial crisis would have raised the stakes substantially and made Obama's relative lack of experience with economics and the private sector a severe handicap. In fact, I might go so far to say that in the context of an ongoing financial meltdown, Obama's candidacy might well have descended into joke territory, as he had ZERO credentials for handling a major economic downturn. Moreover, the prospect of Bill Clinton, creator of the '90s prosperity, looking over Hillary's shoulder in the Oval Office would have been a plus in such an environment.

This, in turn, would have helped a Clinton presidency in a couple of ways. First and foremost, the bailouts of big banks and industry would have been clearly Bush programs and the recession-induced soaring deficits would have been clearly established on Bush's watch. That, in turn, probably means that the Tea Party never happens or, if it does, it remains relegated to the fringes of the Right.

On the GOP side, this probably helps Romney in the primaries, but any GOP candidate is probably dead meat in the general election owing to the severity of the crisis. The unknown here is whether Bush would have pushed for stimulus in 2008. If not, it could well be the case that the depth of the crisis in 2008 is worse than it was in OTL 2009 and that an incoming President Clinton faces a situation even worse than Obama did.
 
... snip ...if the collapse had happened in 07 I think Hillary would have won . I think Obama would have been the VEEP. She would have been more ready for the TEA Party NUTS!!

Perhaps H. Clinton would have won under these circumstances. I don't see her necessarily tapping Obama as for running mate though. I imagine that there are several individuals much higher on her list then him. Also, remember that this is 2007/08 and thus there no "TEA Party NUTS" per say around.


Now that I think about it I can see Hillary getting it not Obama. Obama had the Iraq War hardcore opposition on his side but that isn't as big of an issue with the economy ruined sooner. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama actually sits it out and Feingold or Gore run (depending on exactly when the collapse happens)

I wounder who will be more successful in the fall '08 elections ... Republicans at blaming the Democrat controlled Congress for the financial mess or Democrats at blaming the Republican administration for it?
 
I wounder who will be more successful in the fall '08 elections ... Republicans at blaming the Democrat controlled Congress for the financial mess or Democrats at blaming the Republican administration for it?

I see Republicans pinning this on Clinton a lot more than they did in OTL. With Hillary as the nominee I think they try very hard to educate the public about Glass-Steagall and the consequences of its repeal, making Clinton see more responsibility for the crash than they did in OTL. And since most of us agree the stimulus helped to some extent I wonder if Bush would have pushed for a bigger package and divided the Republicans over the issue much sooner than in OTL.
 
I wounder who will be more successful in the fall '08 elections ... Republicans at blaming the Democrat controlled Congress for the financial mess or Democrats at blaming the Republican administration for it?

Well in the OTL the recession technically started in December 2007, so you had 9 months to go until Lehman went under. If we move everything back one year, then the recession will have began in December of 2006, before the Democratic controlled Congress was even sworn in. Also, polls still showed the public blamed Bush for the economy even 3 years into Obama's first term, so I expect most of the blame to be placed on him and his party in November 2008.

As for Clinton versus Obama in the primary, there is the chance that the progressive wing would be afraid she'd appoint the same Rubin/Summers economic team that was part of the deregulation mania of the last 30 years that helped create the mess. Obama could run as an outsider against the deregulation consensus that had emerged between the Republicans and DLC Democrats. This might also change who he surrounds himself with as President. I'd expect Volcker having a bigger say, while Summers is shut out
 
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