Thande
Donor
Osaka as the capital of Japan?
That red star doesn't mean capital, witness Vladivostok and Mukden.
"Fight and be Right"
- Thread starter EdT
- Start date
That red star doesn't mean capital, witness Vladivostok and Mukden.
Yep, red stars are larger cities, mainly for reference.
The borders are not too different to OTL; the Thai borders are identical as OTL's pre-1893, as Siam has not lost Laos to French Indochina so far ITTL; what is now western Cambodia was under Siamese control until 1907.
As for Korea, China ceded the Gando/Jiandao region as part of the Treaty of Iizuka, which ended TTL's Sino-Japanese war in 1889. This makes the Russo-Korean border rather longer.
The maps aren't meant to tell you so much at present, but as in the upcoming chapter I refer to a lot of small villages and towns that you might not have heard of I thought it would be helpful reference.
Chapter 24
“The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.”
__________________________________________________
(Taken from ‘Britain, from Churchill to Chamberlain’ by Peter Moorcroft, Star 1983)
“Churchill was entertaining in 10 Downing St when the fateful news came; a red box from the Admiralty was brought to the dinner table, a rare event that meant that something important and serious had occurred. Indeed, the last time that it had happened was almost a decade earlier, on the night that the fall of Khartoum had become apparent. Randolph asked his guests permission to open the box; he then read the single sheet of paper inside, drained his glass and threw it on the ground, and rushed out of the room, to general confusion...
The next morning saw an outpouring of grief and rage that had not been seen since the awful events of October 1887. The papers were full of the burning hulks of the Channel fleet and bloodcurdling calls for revenge; French waiters were beaten up in the street and arrested as spies; and the Yeomanry was hurriedly called up in case of invasion. Yet there was little despair; the mood was set by the King, who noted that “we are not interested in the possibilities of defeat; they do not exist”[1]. Churchill’s political antennae had served him well, and his immediate acceptance of the resignations of Robert Reid, the First Lord of the Admiralty, and Admiral Fairfax, the commander of the Channel Fleet, took much of the sting out of public anger directed internally.
Instead, a narrative, strongly encouraged by the Government, was allowed to develop of the fair-minded Englishman being tricked by the unsportsmanlike and unscrupulous Frenchman. The Times leading article for April 29th summed up the trend when it concluded; “Now the gloves are off”. As early as the morning after the attack on Portland Churchill was already pressuring the Admiralty into planning a large, symbolic counter-stroke, a quest that would bear fruit in the grand raid on Cherbourg the following month...”
(Taken from “A History of Modern Europe, 1789-1939” by Frederick Carson, Picador 1960)
“While Crispi remained in power, tension between France and Italy had rarely relaxed. The accidental revelation that Italy had secretly joined the Triple Alliance in March 1888 did much to destroy all trust between his Government and the Boulanger Regime, and the following month a full-scale tariff war between the two nations began. Throughout the following years, Crispi’s belligerent attitude towards Paris caused major tension in Europe, and almost led to war on a number of occasions. In the summer of 1888 the Germans started a war scare by informing Britain and Italy, correctly, that the French were concentrating their fleet at Toulon; the following year Crispi convinced himself that a French invasion was imminent and immediately went to the –bemused- Germans for aid, and in 1890 tensions over Tunis and Morocco formed the by-now regular yearly crisis[2].
Crispis’s delight in creating a hostile atmosphere and his demagogic, brutally ‘frank’ speeches, made it virtually impossible for the French Government to make concessions while he remained in power. His tactics also succeeded in irritating his allies, and in the meantime French tariff warfare succeeded in crippling the Italian economy. The slow but steady process which Italy had been making since 1861 came to an abrupt end and from 1888 to 1895 the Italian economy stagnated. In 1891, Crispi was finally removed by his political enemies, but only three years later he returned, buoyed by the worsening agrarian disturbances in Sicily and able to pose as saviour of the nation[3].
As he prepared to take action against the “Fasci” in Sicily[4], the events of March and April 1894 were a godsend to Crispi, who suddenly found his long-term goals of gaining revenge on the French and gaining colonial possessions in Tunis and Abyssinia matching precisely with his need to restore order to the nation. Plans for a massive crackdown on the ringleaders of the malcontents were shelved, and on April 29th, even as news of the French attack on Portland was being relayed to capitals across the world, Crispis made his own declaration of war against France, consulting neither Britain nor Germany in the process...”
(Taken from “The War of the Dual Alliance” by Douglas Fry, Hudson 1978)
“Winston Churchill later wrote, dismissively, that “the occasion of the Italian entry into the War was marked by the rolling of eyes across the capitals of Europe.” This was neither fair, nor an accurate description; in fact, compared to the complete lack of reaction to Japan’s assumption of its alliance obligations and subsequent declaration of war on Russia and France, response to the Italian declaration was intense.
In Britain, the news of Italian intervention was greeted with pleasure and relief, although little surprise; Rome and London had been informally coordinating policy against France and Russia in the Horn of Africa for some time, and although no existing war plan was quite presumptuous enough to entirely assume Italian participation, the Admiralty in particular had given active consideration to the use of Sardinian anchorages at Maddalena and Caligari. In Berlin and Vienna, the Italian move caused more consternation. While unwilling to involve themselves in a general war, particularly with Russia, the unappetising prospect of French armies breaching the Alpine passes and marching down the Po Valley gave both Caprivi and the Austrians pause for thought.
Officially, German policy followed the terms of the Triple Alliance to the letter. Article 4 of the document stated that “In case a Great Power non-signatory to the present Treaty should threaten the security of the states of one of the High Contracting Parties, and the threatened Party should find itself forced on that account to make war against it, the two others bind themselves to observe towards their Ally a benevolent neutrality.”[5]
In reality, Caprivi attempted, behind the scenes, to have matters both ways. In a private communication to Paris on May 10th, the Chancellor informed Boulanger that while Germany would remain neutral during the war, she viewed it as a primarily colonial and naval matter; any major extension of the war to continental soil would be “highly alarming”. In a stroke the German move issued Boulanger with the vast dilemma that would confront him throughout the conflict; strike the enemy’s weakest point and risk escalating the war to the point of certain defeat, or refuse to call the German bluff and hold back from the best chance France had of knocking an enemy nation out of the war...”
(Taken from “Decolonisation: The story of the Scramble Out of Africa” by Thomas Makwetia, Star 1980)
On a cool spring day in July 1894, a curious ceremony took place in the port of Tamatave, on the east coast of Madagascar. As white-clad Malagasy soldiers looked on, a Frenchman in an immaculately pressed tropical uniform lowered the Tricolour from a nearby flagpole and led his small band of Senegalese Tirailleurs up the gangway to one of the two waiting steamers, already packed with Europeans, mostly civilian. A small group of local musicians struck up a mangled version of the Marseillaise as the boats moved away from the quay. The steamers would arrive at Réunion two weeks later; in evacuating Madagascar, France had suffered its first loss of the War of the Dual Alliance...
In truth, French power had never been cemented on Madagascar. After the war of 1883-1885, France had imposed a treaty on the Merina Kingdom, but the text did not even include the term ‘protectorate’ and merely acknowledged French ‘historical rights’ on the island; a state of affairs that the Malagasy Government was determined to overturn[6]. Between 1886 and 1893 constant brinksmanship and diplomatic manoeuvring occupied the minds of Rainilaiarivony, the Prime Minister, and the French resident, François Pierre Rodier[7], as the latter tried to make up for the ‘insufficiencies’ of the 1885 treaty by trying to create a “French Party” in Malagasy high society and limit the influence of the numerous English missionaries established in Antananarivo. In 1888, Rodier came close to ordering a complete diplomatic rupture with Rainilaiarivony, who was forced to compromise; the next few years were filled by constant French hydrographical surveys and other missions, as possible landing sites and invasion routes were scrutinised, and Rodier travelled widely through the country, regularly transmitting to Paris the notes that he had taken[8].
After 1890, war seemed probable; indeed, the British and Germans recognised that year the “French protectorate overt the island of Madagascar” without consulting the Malagasies. Relations deteriorated, and the Prime Minister ordered weapons from Europe, including France, and the French took note of the deliveries without being able to effectively oppose them either in law or in practice, given the length of the coastline. In 1893, having received news of big landings of arms, President Boulanger asked the War Minister for the first time, on 19th August, to study the conditions for forming an expeditionary corps. From this point on, the French Government appeared wholly resigned to a military expedition and possibly even outright annexation, as the ‘colonialists’ in Réunion desired[9].
Had war not broken out between Britain and France the following spring, a new Franco-Malagasy treaty, imposed either voluntarily or at the barrel of a gun, would almost certainly have been signed, and Madagascar would have been cemented into the French orbit. Events, however, transpired otherwise. When news of war arrived in Antananarivo in late June, the previously cautious behaviour of the Merina disappeared; suddenly, Malagasy soldiers filled the streets, forts were manned and French missionaries threatened. Unsure of the situation and worried about a massacre, Rodier’s nerve cracked and finally decided to evacuate all French residents to nearby Réunion, an operation he accomplished on July 16th.
When the Royal Navy cruiser HMS Mercury arrived in Tamatave six weeks later, her crew were greeted not by the French garrison that was expected, but by several hundred Malagasy troops under the command of the English mercenary Charles Shervington and the red and white banner of Queen Ranavalona III. The show of force was impressive enough to ensure that British representatives were sent to Antananarivo, and the following December the United Kingdom formally recognised the Malagasy Kingdom as an “independent friend and ally”, in return for trading rights and a 99-year lease on the port of Diego Suarez...”
(Taken from “The War of the Dual Alliance in the East” by Frederick Stanley, Star 1983)
Underestimation of Japan was to prove one of the most significant intelligence failures of the Russian General Staff, with costly military and political consequences. It is therefore worthwhile to examine how this failure came about, particularly as this underestimation is traditionally attributed purely to racism on the part of the Russians. In fact, the problem was caused by the determination of the General Staff to consider China the more significant regional power. Thus, in 1890 an intelligence estimate of the armed forces of China and Japan devoted 169 pages to the former and only 16 to the latter[10]...
However, Japan was kept under close observation following the Formosa Crisis of 1891, and the possibility of war involved a significant degree of strategic work on the part of the General Staff. From these studies 1892-3 saw the first development of a war plan for conflict with Japan, the despatch of reinforcements from European Russia and the gradual upgrading of Vladivostok from a grade three to a grade two fortification[11]. By the time war was declared in 1894, a reasonably detailed plan had been produced. The General Staff intended for the main struggle to be naval; the Russian Far East Squadron would sail southwards from Vladivostok, attempt to link up with potential reinforcements from Formosa, were they to exist, and fight a decisive fleet engagement with the Japanese Fleet, isolating Corea from reinforcement and allowing a Russian column to occupy the peninsula at their leisure.
As such, as early as May 12th, just over a week after the Russian declaration of war on Corea and Japan, elements of the “Eastern Detachment” under Major Miller[12] crossed the Tumen River into northern Corea. For over a week they faced no resistance as they marched down the peninsula’s eastern coast. Then, on the afternoon of the 20th, as they approached the village of Kongsong[13], the invasion force encountered concentrations of mostly Corean troops with Japanese artillery. The evening saw a confused series of cavalry charges, followed at dusk by a general Russian attack on the Corean positions around the village; after heavy casualties on both sides, around midnight the Coreans withdrew southwards across the Sosongchon river and left the field to the Russians...”
(Taken from “The War of the Dual Alliance” by Douglas Fry, Hudson 1978)
“Even as the cruisers of the Russian Far East Squadron left port in Vladivostok on May 16th, a hastily-created joint Franco-Russian flotilla cast off at Keelung and departed for the Sea of Japan. Rear-Admiral Lapeyrère[14], an ambitious and energetic young officer, had been training for a naval battle with the Japanese ever since he had taken command of the French squadron late the previous year; his force, which consisted of the battleship Charles Martel[15] and four modern armoured cruisers, had been unexpectedly swelled by the additions of a brand-new Russian battleship, the Imperator Nikolai I[16] and two protected cruisers, the Rynda and the Admiral Kornilov[17], all of which had been on their way to reinforce the Vladivostok squadron when war broke out.
Lapeyrère’s orders were simple; steam north-east towards the Corean Strait, disrupt Japanese shipping and try to bring the Japanese to a decisive battle. The French commander was quite aware that Japanese spies operated in Formosa, and made little effort to disguise his intentions; in his view strategic surprise was worthless and any effort to draw Japanese resources southwards away from the smaller Russian Far Eastern Squadron was worthwhile. As a result, Lapeyrère’s force deliberately took a path towards the Ryukyu Islands before turning northwards in an open challenge to the Imperial Japanese Navy. Meanwhile in Japan, Lapeyrère’s challenge had been noted and accepted. Vice-Admiral Ito[18], the newly appointed commander of the Japanese combined fleet, recognised the danger posed by the Franco-Russian force and determined to engage it in a series of attritional hit-and run battles as it approached the Home Islands. The first of these took place on May 29th, when Ito attempted to lure the enemy force into battle using his own flagship, the battleship Fuji[19] as bait for a trap utilising a small force of Japanese-built torpedo boats[20].
After a Japanese gunboat spotted the Franco-Russian force, the two fleets finally met around 200 miles east of Shanghai and 100 south-west of the Corean island of Cheju, in broad daylight and excellent visibility. The two fleets began shelling each other at long range; however, as the two lines converged, the Imperator Nikolai I suddenly shuddered and heeled over, coming to rest half-submerged in shallow water. At the time, it was generally assumed to be the work of a well-aimed Japanese torpedo, but after the battle it became apparent that the battleship had struck a previously-unknown seamount lying only a few yards underwater. The rock has borne the name of the ship ever since[21].
The loss of the Nikolai I threw the Franco-Russian squadron into confusion, even though the brave gunners onboard the grounded vessel continued to fire ragged salvos at the Japanese line. The disciplined gunnery of Lapeyrère’s force soon took its toll on the approaching Japanese. The cruisers Yaeyama and Hashidate were fatally damaged, and none of Ito’s torpedo boats were able to approach close enough to fire a salvo. It appeared that the Japanese force would be driven away by the heavier fire of the French and Russians; then, Ito had his second stroke of luck of the day. As the Japanese prepared to withdraw, the protected cruiser Itsukushima scored a lucky hit on the bow of Charles Martel with its single 12-inch Canet gun[22]. With his flagship heavily damaged and taking on water, Lapeyrère decided to break contact under the covering fire of his cruisers and retreated southwards, the Japanese in no condition to follow.
Although the battle of the Yangtze Bank, as it became known, was a tactical draw and one that left the Japanese force far more badly damaged than their enemy, it was a Japanese victory. Ito’s force suffered only the permanent loss of a single cruiser, and gained a valuable asset; a week after the battle and with great difficulty the hulk of the Nikolai I was salvaged from the shallow water it rested in and was towed back to Nagasaki, where it was eventually refitted as the battleship Iki. More importantly, the first attempt to break Japanese naval supremacy over the Corean Strait had been foiled; the next attempt would come from the north, and the Russian Far East Squadron...”
(Taken from “The War of the Dual Alliance in the East” by Frederick Stanley, Star 1983)
“While heavy fighting raged elsewhere, eastern Siam, the region that ostensibly remained the focus of the conflict spreading around the world, remained relatively quiet at first. Although skirmishing and cross-border raids continued from the pre-war period, particularly in the region around Luang Prabang, neither side attempted a major offensive. The reason for this inaction was simple; neither side was remotely ready for an escalation in hostilities. The French forces stationed in Indochina on the outbreak of war were sufficient to maintain order in the colony, but little more; as Governor, Admiral Fournier boasted an impressive naval squadron but had neglected his land-based forces and relied mainly on French-officered native levies. What worthwhile troops there were concentrated in the north, where the rebels Phan Dinh Phung and Cao Thang still held out against the colonial forces[23].
To the west, the Siamese army was in poor fighting shape. The infantry, stationed mainly in Bangkok with only a few other units in the provinces, was in its infancy; the artillery as well as the cavalry were predominantly used for ceremonial use, not fighting. The army was in a transitional phase, moving from a traditional peasant force to a professional, westernised one; most of the ‘Siamese’ troops who fought and died on the eastern border of the kingdom over the next year were war captives, ethnic peoples who had recently fought against Siam but had been defeated and pressed into service[24]. Even the Indian brigade hurriedly brought across the Burmese border to bolster the Siamese defences was comprised of amongst the worst the subcontinent had to offer, Calcutta’s main focus being on the reinforcement of the Northwest Frontier and operations against the Russians in Afghanistan.
The period of desultory skirmishing, ambush and coastal bombardment finally came to an end in early July, when a column mostly comprised of Cambodian troops armed and officered by the French cautiously marched westwards from the Mekong towards the town of Phratabong[25]. At the head of the column was a small unit of French legionnaires led by an American captain named James O’Neill[26]. At the ramshackle settlement of Muong Rosey[27], a few miles from the Franco-Siamese border, the French force met hastily-despatched Siamese detachment from Phratabong; the Siamese scattered with barely a shot fired, and by nightfall news of the defeat panicked the local governor to flee his capital for Bangkok, abandoning the entire province without a fight. By July 16th the French had installed themselves in Phratabong, which they proclaimed part of Cambodia, and had penetrated as far west as the town of Watthana[28], only seventy miles from the Siamese capital...”
__________________________________________________
[1] Queen Victoria said the same after “black week” OTL
[2] This is all much as OTL, although the dates are slightly different.
[3] This happened OTL as well, although then Crispi made his comeback in late 1893 rather than early 1894.
[4] Both OTL and ITTL, the Fasci Siciliani were a broadly socialist movement of farmers and workers, calling for land reform and better wages. OTL, Crispi cracked down on them brutally; ITTL, he tries to denude the movement of much of its popular support by entering the war, and then will attempt to decapitate the ringleaders when less attention is being paid to them.
[5] This is OTL’s text as well.
[6] This was the case OTL as well.
[7] OTL Charles le Myre de Vilers occupied the post, but ITTL he’s busy enforcing French rule in Formosa. Rodier’s appointment means that the diplomatic dance in Madagascar goes slightly less well for the French ITTL.
[8] This happened OTL too, but Rodier accomplishes it far less successfully than Myre de Vilers, leading to the French having less information ITTL.
[9] OTL, the French leant towards a protectorate, but ITTL preparations for war are not as exhaustive as OTL and there is a certain amount of misplaced optimism about what can be achieved.
[10] This was the case IOTL as well.
[11] OTL, the war plan was developed in the wake of the Triple Intervention of 1895. ITTL Russian planning towards Japan underestimates them even more than OTL, and is generally more slipshod.
[12] Evgenii Miller was a German-Latvian career officer in the Russian army; OTL in the Russian civil war he became the commander of the White forces in the far north of the country, and later became famous for his sensational kidnap from exile in France in 1938, his subsequent torture in Moscow at the hands of the NKVD and his execution the following year.
[13] The village still exists, as a suburb of the North Korean city of Chongjin, which itself was a tiny and unremarkable fishing village until 1908, when the Japanese began to develop the area.
[14] Augustin Lapeyrère was a notable French admiral in WW1 OTL, when he commanded French naval forces in the Mediterranean. ITTL he has risen though the ranks more quickly than OTL as his energetic reformism has caught the eye of Theophile Aube; his posting to Keelung is his first major command, and widely seen as a risky appointment.
[15] OTL, Charles Martel was first laid down in 1884 but political wrangling ensured it took almost a decade to construct thanks to opposition from proponents of the Jeune Ecole. ITTL the same thing happens, but the extra money spent on the French navy means that construction takes place at a slow pace and the completed ship is quickly packed off to a colonial station.
[16] OTL, the Imperator Nikolai I had an interesting career, serving in the Baltic fleet until 1904, and then crossing the world with Admiral Rozhestvensky. Unlike many Russian ships she survived the battle of Tsushima, but was captured and spent the rest of her career as the Japanese battleship Iki. She was used for artillery practice in 1915.
[17] Both ships had undistinguished careers OTL, being constructed in the mid to late 1880s and being scrapped just before the outbreak of WW1.
[18] Itoh Sukeyuki commanded the Japanese navy against the Chinese OTL during the Sino-Japanese war; ITTL he has been picked to command the navy for similar reasons.
[19] This is not the Fuji of OTL although it is similar, having been ordered slightly earlier ITTL from the British after the Formosa incident.
[20] IOTL, the Japanese navy embraced the Jeune Ecole; ITTL this is even more pronounced thanks to the French example, and the Japanese have built a few prototype torpedo boats of their own.
[21] OTL, the rock is known as ‘Socotra Rock’, after the British steamer that discovered it in 1900. Before this there is evidence that it had been mapped by the Chinese navy in the 1880s, and it may have been known to the Ming dynasty. Ships have blundered into it in the past; in 1963 a Chinese ship named the Yuejin was shipwrecked there, leading to an international incident as the sailors blamed the sinking on a torpedo. Today the seamount is disputed between Korea and China.
[22] Itsukushima and her sisters were armed with a single massive gun at the bow, designed by the French engineer M. Canet. While inaccurate and slow to fire, if they hit their target they were deadly.
[23] This was the case OTL as well; ITTL however, Cao Thang is still alive, his death in battle in late 1893 having been butterflied away.
[24] Although this was also the case IOTL, the Royal Thai Army did surprisingly well during the Franco-Siamese war and were able to hold their own on the land when they chose to fight.
[25] Today, Phratabong is known as Battambang, in western Cambodia. ITTL and OTL it was a major centre of trade for eastern Thailand and focus of Thai efforts to stamp out Cambodian culture, until the region was added to French Indochina in 1907.
[26] O’Neill was stationed in Indochina OTL, and is best known for a widely-regarded series of essays on Vietnam, published in 1895. After this he disappeared into complete obscurity.
[27] Today known as Moung Ruessei, a town about thirty miles south-east of Battenbang
[28] Watthana is about twenty miles west of the modern Thai-Cambodian border.
“The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.”
__________________________________________________
(Taken from ‘Britain, from Churchill to Chamberlain’ by Peter Moorcroft, Star 1983)
“Churchill was entertaining in 10 Downing St when the fateful news came; a red box from the Admiralty was brought to the dinner table, a rare event that meant that something important and serious had occurred. Indeed, the last time that it had happened was almost a decade earlier, on the night that the fall of Khartoum had become apparent. Randolph asked his guests permission to open the box; he then read the single sheet of paper inside, drained his glass and threw it on the ground, and rushed out of the room, to general confusion...
The next morning saw an outpouring of grief and rage that had not been seen since the awful events of October 1887. The papers were full of the burning hulks of the Channel fleet and bloodcurdling calls for revenge; French waiters were beaten up in the street and arrested as spies; and the Yeomanry was hurriedly called up in case of invasion. Yet there was little despair; the mood was set by the King, who noted that “we are not interested in the possibilities of defeat; they do not exist”[1]. Churchill’s political antennae had served him well, and his immediate acceptance of the resignations of Robert Reid, the First Lord of the Admiralty, and Admiral Fairfax, the commander of the Channel Fleet, took much of the sting out of public anger directed internally.
Instead, a narrative, strongly encouraged by the Government, was allowed to develop of the fair-minded Englishman being tricked by the unsportsmanlike and unscrupulous Frenchman. The Times leading article for April 29th summed up the trend when it concluded; “Now the gloves are off”. As early as the morning after the attack on Portland Churchill was already pressuring the Admiralty into planning a large, symbolic counter-stroke, a quest that would bear fruit in the grand raid on Cherbourg the following month...”
(Taken from “A History of Modern Europe, 1789-1939” by Frederick Carson, Picador 1960)
“While Crispi remained in power, tension between France and Italy had rarely relaxed. The accidental revelation that Italy had secretly joined the Triple Alliance in March 1888 did much to destroy all trust between his Government and the Boulanger Regime, and the following month a full-scale tariff war between the two nations began. Throughout the following years, Crispi’s belligerent attitude towards Paris caused major tension in Europe, and almost led to war on a number of occasions. In the summer of 1888 the Germans started a war scare by informing Britain and Italy, correctly, that the French were concentrating their fleet at Toulon; the following year Crispi convinced himself that a French invasion was imminent and immediately went to the –bemused- Germans for aid, and in 1890 tensions over Tunis and Morocco formed the by-now regular yearly crisis[2].
Crispis’s delight in creating a hostile atmosphere and his demagogic, brutally ‘frank’ speeches, made it virtually impossible for the French Government to make concessions while he remained in power. His tactics also succeeded in irritating his allies, and in the meantime French tariff warfare succeeded in crippling the Italian economy. The slow but steady process which Italy had been making since 1861 came to an abrupt end and from 1888 to 1895 the Italian economy stagnated. In 1891, Crispi was finally removed by his political enemies, but only three years later he returned, buoyed by the worsening agrarian disturbances in Sicily and able to pose as saviour of the nation[3].
As he prepared to take action against the “Fasci” in Sicily[4], the events of March and April 1894 were a godsend to Crispi, who suddenly found his long-term goals of gaining revenge on the French and gaining colonial possessions in Tunis and Abyssinia matching precisely with his need to restore order to the nation. Plans for a massive crackdown on the ringleaders of the malcontents were shelved, and on April 29th, even as news of the French attack on Portland was being relayed to capitals across the world, Crispis made his own declaration of war against France, consulting neither Britain nor Germany in the process...”
(Taken from “The War of the Dual Alliance” by Douglas Fry, Hudson 1978)
“Winston Churchill later wrote, dismissively, that “the occasion of the Italian entry into the War was marked by the rolling of eyes across the capitals of Europe.” This was neither fair, nor an accurate description; in fact, compared to the complete lack of reaction to Japan’s assumption of its alliance obligations and subsequent declaration of war on Russia and France, response to the Italian declaration was intense.
In Britain, the news of Italian intervention was greeted with pleasure and relief, although little surprise; Rome and London had been informally coordinating policy against France and Russia in the Horn of Africa for some time, and although no existing war plan was quite presumptuous enough to entirely assume Italian participation, the Admiralty in particular had given active consideration to the use of Sardinian anchorages at Maddalena and Caligari. In Berlin and Vienna, the Italian move caused more consternation. While unwilling to involve themselves in a general war, particularly with Russia, the unappetising prospect of French armies breaching the Alpine passes and marching down the Po Valley gave both Caprivi and the Austrians pause for thought.
Officially, German policy followed the terms of the Triple Alliance to the letter. Article 4 of the document stated that “In case a Great Power non-signatory to the present Treaty should threaten the security of the states of one of the High Contracting Parties, and the threatened Party should find itself forced on that account to make war against it, the two others bind themselves to observe towards their Ally a benevolent neutrality.”[5]
In reality, Caprivi attempted, behind the scenes, to have matters both ways. In a private communication to Paris on May 10th, the Chancellor informed Boulanger that while Germany would remain neutral during the war, she viewed it as a primarily colonial and naval matter; any major extension of the war to continental soil would be “highly alarming”. In a stroke the German move issued Boulanger with the vast dilemma that would confront him throughout the conflict; strike the enemy’s weakest point and risk escalating the war to the point of certain defeat, or refuse to call the German bluff and hold back from the best chance France had of knocking an enemy nation out of the war...”
(Taken from “Decolonisation: The story of the Scramble Out of Africa” by Thomas Makwetia, Star 1980)
On a cool spring day in July 1894, a curious ceremony took place in the port of Tamatave, on the east coast of Madagascar. As white-clad Malagasy soldiers looked on, a Frenchman in an immaculately pressed tropical uniform lowered the Tricolour from a nearby flagpole and led his small band of Senegalese Tirailleurs up the gangway to one of the two waiting steamers, already packed with Europeans, mostly civilian. A small group of local musicians struck up a mangled version of the Marseillaise as the boats moved away from the quay. The steamers would arrive at Réunion two weeks later; in evacuating Madagascar, France had suffered its first loss of the War of the Dual Alliance...
In truth, French power had never been cemented on Madagascar. After the war of 1883-1885, France had imposed a treaty on the Merina Kingdom, but the text did not even include the term ‘protectorate’ and merely acknowledged French ‘historical rights’ on the island; a state of affairs that the Malagasy Government was determined to overturn[6]. Between 1886 and 1893 constant brinksmanship and diplomatic manoeuvring occupied the minds of Rainilaiarivony, the Prime Minister, and the French resident, François Pierre Rodier[7], as the latter tried to make up for the ‘insufficiencies’ of the 1885 treaty by trying to create a “French Party” in Malagasy high society and limit the influence of the numerous English missionaries established in Antananarivo. In 1888, Rodier came close to ordering a complete diplomatic rupture with Rainilaiarivony, who was forced to compromise; the next few years were filled by constant French hydrographical surveys and other missions, as possible landing sites and invasion routes were scrutinised, and Rodier travelled widely through the country, regularly transmitting to Paris the notes that he had taken[8].
After 1890, war seemed probable; indeed, the British and Germans recognised that year the “French protectorate overt the island of Madagascar” without consulting the Malagasies. Relations deteriorated, and the Prime Minister ordered weapons from Europe, including France, and the French took note of the deliveries without being able to effectively oppose them either in law or in practice, given the length of the coastline. In 1893, having received news of big landings of arms, President Boulanger asked the War Minister for the first time, on 19th August, to study the conditions for forming an expeditionary corps. From this point on, the French Government appeared wholly resigned to a military expedition and possibly even outright annexation, as the ‘colonialists’ in Réunion desired[9].
Had war not broken out between Britain and France the following spring, a new Franco-Malagasy treaty, imposed either voluntarily or at the barrel of a gun, would almost certainly have been signed, and Madagascar would have been cemented into the French orbit. Events, however, transpired otherwise. When news of war arrived in Antananarivo in late June, the previously cautious behaviour of the Merina disappeared; suddenly, Malagasy soldiers filled the streets, forts were manned and French missionaries threatened. Unsure of the situation and worried about a massacre, Rodier’s nerve cracked and finally decided to evacuate all French residents to nearby Réunion, an operation he accomplished on July 16th.
When the Royal Navy cruiser HMS Mercury arrived in Tamatave six weeks later, her crew were greeted not by the French garrison that was expected, but by several hundred Malagasy troops under the command of the English mercenary Charles Shervington and the red and white banner of Queen Ranavalona III. The show of force was impressive enough to ensure that British representatives were sent to Antananarivo, and the following December the United Kingdom formally recognised the Malagasy Kingdom as an “independent friend and ally”, in return for trading rights and a 99-year lease on the port of Diego Suarez...”
(Taken from “The War of the Dual Alliance in the East” by Frederick Stanley, Star 1983)
Underestimation of Japan was to prove one of the most significant intelligence failures of the Russian General Staff, with costly military and political consequences. It is therefore worthwhile to examine how this failure came about, particularly as this underestimation is traditionally attributed purely to racism on the part of the Russians. In fact, the problem was caused by the determination of the General Staff to consider China the more significant regional power. Thus, in 1890 an intelligence estimate of the armed forces of China and Japan devoted 169 pages to the former and only 16 to the latter[10]...
However, Japan was kept under close observation following the Formosa Crisis of 1891, and the possibility of war involved a significant degree of strategic work on the part of the General Staff. From these studies 1892-3 saw the first development of a war plan for conflict with Japan, the despatch of reinforcements from European Russia and the gradual upgrading of Vladivostok from a grade three to a grade two fortification[11]. By the time war was declared in 1894, a reasonably detailed plan had been produced. The General Staff intended for the main struggle to be naval; the Russian Far East Squadron would sail southwards from Vladivostok, attempt to link up with potential reinforcements from Formosa, were they to exist, and fight a decisive fleet engagement with the Japanese Fleet, isolating Corea from reinforcement and allowing a Russian column to occupy the peninsula at their leisure.
As such, as early as May 12th, just over a week after the Russian declaration of war on Corea and Japan, elements of the “Eastern Detachment” under Major Miller[12] crossed the Tumen River into northern Corea. For over a week they faced no resistance as they marched down the peninsula’s eastern coast. Then, on the afternoon of the 20th, as they approached the village of Kongsong[13], the invasion force encountered concentrations of mostly Corean troops with Japanese artillery. The evening saw a confused series of cavalry charges, followed at dusk by a general Russian attack on the Corean positions around the village; after heavy casualties on both sides, around midnight the Coreans withdrew southwards across the Sosongchon river and left the field to the Russians...”
(Taken from “The War of the Dual Alliance” by Douglas Fry, Hudson 1978)
“Even as the cruisers of the Russian Far East Squadron left port in Vladivostok on May 16th, a hastily-created joint Franco-Russian flotilla cast off at Keelung and departed for the Sea of Japan. Rear-Admiral Lapeyrère[14], an ambitious and energetic young officer, had been training for a naval battle with the Japanese ever since he had taken command of the French squadron late the previous year; his force, which consisted of the battleship Charles Martel[15] and four modern armoured cruisers, had been unexpectedly swelled by the additions of a brand-new Russian battleship, the Imperator Nikolai I[16] and two protected cruisers, the Rynda and the Admiral Kornilov[17], all of which had been on their way to reinforce the Vladivostok squadron when war broke out.
Lapeyrère’s orders were simple; steam north-east towards the Corean Strait, disrupt Japanese shipping and try to bring the Japanese to a decisive battle. The French commander was quite aware that Japanese spies operated in Formosa, and made little effort to disguise his intentions; in his view strategic surprise was worthless and any effort to draw Japanese resources southwards away from the smaller Russian Far Eastern Squadron was worthwhile. As a result, Lapeyrère’s force deliberately took a path towards the Ryukyu Islands before turning northwards in an open challenge to the Imperial Japanese Navy. Meanwhile in Japan, Lapeyrère’s challenge had been noted and accepted. Vice-Admiral Ito[18], the newly appointed commander of the Japanese combined fleet, recognised the danger posed by the Franco-Russian force and determined to engage it in a series of attritional hit-and run battles as it approached the Home Islands. The first of these took place on May 29th, when Ito attempted to lure the enemy force into battle using his own flagship, the battleship Fuji[19] as bait for a trap utilising a small force of Japanese-built torpedo boats[20].
After a Japanese gunboat spotted the Franco-Russian force, the two fleets finally met around 200 miles east of Shanghai and 100 south-west of the Corean island of Cheju, in broad daylight and excellent visibility. The two fleets began shelling each other at long range; however, as the two lines converged, the Imperator Nikolai I suddenly shuddered and heeled over, coming to rest half-submerged in shallow water. At the time, it was generally assumed to be the work of a well-aimed Japanese torpedo, but after the battle it became apparent that the battleship had struck a previously-unknown seamount lying only a few yards underwater. The rock has borne the name of the ship ever since[21].
The loss of the Nikolai I threw the Franco-Russian squadron into confusion, even though the brave gunners onboard the grounded vessel continued to fire ragged salvos at the Japanese line. The disciplined gunnery of Lapeyrère’s force soon took its toll on the approaching Japanese. The cruisers Yaeyama and Hashidate were fatally damaged, and none of Ito’s torpedo boats were able to approach close enough to fire a salvo. It appeared that the Japanese force would be driven away by the heavier fire of the French and Russians; then, Ito had his second stroke of luck of the day. As the Japanese prepared to withdraw, the protected cruiser Itsukushima scored a lucky hit on the bow of Charles Martel with its single 12-inch Canet gun[22]. With his flagship heavily damaged and taking on water, Lapeyrère decided to break contact under the covering fire of his cruisers and retreated southwards, the Japanese in no condition to follow.
Although the battle of the Yangtze Bank, as it became known, was a tactical draw and one that left the Japanese force far more badly damaged than their enemy, it was a Japanese victory. Ito’s force suffered only the permanent loss of a single cruiser, and gained a valuable asset; a week after the battle and with great difficulty the hulk of the Nikolai I was salvaged from the shallow water it rested in and was towed back to Nagasaki, where it was eventually refitted as the battleship Iki. More importantly, the first attempt to break Japanese naval supremacy over the Corean Strait had been foiled; the next attempt would come from the north, and the Russian Far East Squadron...”
(Taken from “The War of the Dual Alliance in the East” by Frederick Stanley, Star 1983)
“While heavy fighting raged elsewhere, eastern Siam, the region that ostensibly remained the focus of the conflict spreading around the world, remained relatively quiet at first. Although skirmishing and cross-border raids continued from the pre-war period, particularly in the region around Luang Prabang, neither side attempted a major offensive. The reason for this inaction was simple; neither side was remotely ready for an escalation in hostilities. The French forces stationed in Indochina on the outbreak of war were sufficient to maintain order in the colony, but little more; as Governor, Admiral Fournier boasted an impressive naval squadron but had neglected his land-based forces and relied mainly on French-officered native levies. What worthwhile troops there were concentrated in the north, where the rebels Phan Dinh Phung and Cao Thang still held out against the colonial forces[23].
To the west, the Siamese army was in poor fighting shape. The infantry, stationed mainly in Bangkok with only a few other units in the provinces, was in its infancy; the artillery as well as the cavalry were predominantly used for ceremonial use, not fighting. The army was in a transitional phase, moving from a traditional peasant force to a professional, westernised one; most of the ‘Siamese’ troops who fought and died on the eastern border of the kingdom over the next year were war captives, ethnic peoples who had recently fought against Siam but had been defeated and pressed into service[24]. Even the Indian brigade hurriedly brought across the Burmese border to bolster the Siamese defences was comprised of amongst the worst the subcontinent had to offer, Calcutta’s main focus being on the reinforcement of the Northwest Frontier and operations against the Russians in Afghanistan.
The period of desultory skirmishing, ambush and coastal bombardment finally came to an end in early July, when a column mostly comprised of Cambodian troops armed and officered by the French cautiously marched westwards from the Mekong towards the town of Phratabong[25]. At the head of the column was a small unit of French legionnaires led by an American captain named James O’Neill[26]. At the ramshackle settlement of Muong Rosey[27], a few miles from the Franco-Siamese border, the French force met hastily-despatched Siamese detachment from Phratabong; the Siamese scattered with barely a shot fired, and by nightfall news of the defeat panicked the local governor to flee his capital for Bangkok, abandoning the entire province without a fight. By July 16th the French had installed themselves in Phratabong, which they proclaimed part of Cambodia, and had penetrated as far west as the town of Watthana[28], only seventy miles from the Siamese capital...”
__________________________________________________
[1] Queen Victoria said the same after “black week” OTL
[2] This is all much as OTL, although the dates are slightly different.
[3] This happened OTL as well, although then Crispi made his comeback in late 1893 rather than early 1894.
[4] Both OTL and ITTL, the Fasci Siciliani were a broadly socialist movement of farmers and workers, calling for land reform and better wages. OTL, Crispi cracked down on them brutally; ITTL, he tries to denude the movement of much of its popular support by entering the war, and then will attempt to decapitate the ringleaders when less attention is being paid to them.
[5] This is OTL’s text as well.
[6] This was the case OTL as well.
[7] OTL Charles le Myre de Vilers occupied the post, but ITTL he’s busy enforcing French rule in Formosa. Rodier’s appointment means that the diplomatic dance in Madagascar goes slightly less well for the French ITTL.
[8] This happened OTL too, but Rodier accomplishes it far less successfully than Myre de Vilers, leading to the French having less information ITTL.
[9] OTL, the French leant towards a protectorate, but ITTL preparations for war are not as exhaustive as OTL and there is a certain amount of misplaced optimism about what can be achieved.
[10] This was the case IOTL as well.
[11] OTL, the war plan was developed in the wake of the Triple Intervention of 1895. ITTL Russian planning towards Japan underestimates them even more than OTL, and is generally more slipshod.
[12] Evgenii Miller was a German-Latvian career officer in the Russian army; OTL in the Russian civil war he became the commander of the White forces in the far north of the country, and later became famous for his sensational kidnap from exile in France in 1938, his subsequent torture in Moscow at the hands of the NKVD and his execution the following year.
[13] The village still exists, as a suburb of the North Korean city of Chongjin, which itself was a tiny and unremarkable fishing village until 1908, when the Japanese began to develop the area.
[14] Augustin Lapeyrère was a notable French admiral in WW1 OTL, when he commanded French naval forces in the Mediterranean. ITTL he has risen though the ranks more quickly than OTL as his energetic reformism has caught the eye of Theophile Aube; his posting to Keelung is his first major command, and widely seen as a risky appointment.
[15] OTL, Charles Martel was first laid down in 1884 but political wrangling ensured it took almost a decade to construct thanks to opposition from proponents of the Jeune Ecole. ITTL the same thing happens, but the extra money spent on the French navy means that construction takes place at a slow pace and the completed ship is quickly packed off to a colonial station.
[16] OTL, the Imperator Nikolai I had an interesting career, serving in the Baltic fleet until 1904, and then crossing the world with Admiral Rozhestvensky. Unlike many Russian ships she survived the battle of Tsushima, but was captured and spent the rest of her career as the Japanese battleship Iki. She was used for artillery practice in 1915.
[17] Both ships had undistinguished careers OTL, being constructed in the mid to late 1880s and being scrapped just before the outbreak of WW1.
[18] Itoh Sukeyuki commanded the Japanese navy against the Chinese OTL during the Sino-Japanese war; ITTL he has been picked to command the navy for similar reasons.
[19] This is not the Fuji of OTL although it is similar, having been ordered slightly earlier ITTL from the British after the Formosa incident.
[20] IOTL, the Japanese navy embraced the Jeune Ecole; ITTL this is even more pronounced thanks to the French example, and the Japanese have built a few prototype torpedo boats of their own.
[21] OTL, the rock is known as ‘Socotra Rock’, after the British steamer that discovered it in 1900. Before this there is evidence that it had been mapped by the Chinese navy in the 1880s, and it may have been known to the Ming dynasty. Ships have blundered into it in the past; in 1963 a Chinese ship named the Yuejin was shipwrecked there, leading to an international incident as the sailors blamed the sinking on a torpedo. Today the seamount is disputed between Korea and China.
[22] Itsukushima and her sisters were armed with a single massive gun at the bow, designed by the French engineer M. Canet. While inaccurate and slow to fire, if they hit their target they were deadly.
[23] This was the case OTL as well; ITTL however, Cao Thang is still alive, his death in battle in late 1893 having been butterflied away.
[24] Although this was also the case IOTL, the Royal Thai Army did surprisingly well during the Franco-Siamese war and were able to hold their own on the land when they chose to fight.
[25] Today, Phratabong is known as Battambang, in western Cambodia. ITTL and OTL it was a major centre of trade for eastern Thailand and focus of Thai efforts to stamp out Cambodian culture, until the region was added to French Indochina in 1907.
[26] O’Neill was stationed in Indochina OTL, and is best known for a widely-regarded series of essays on Vietnam, published in 1895. After this he disappeared into complete obscurity.
[27] Today known as Moung Ruessei, a town about thirty miles south-east of Battenbang
[28] Watthana is about twenty miles west of the modern Thai-Cambodian border.
You seem to know everything about everything in the realm of late 19th century history
I find myself forgetting that this is a work of fiction...
I seriously look forward to seeing how this war works out, especially with the overeager Italians and the "neutral" Germans...
Oh, and I was wondering, how far ahead do you plan your timelines? I know that you already have a kind of "conclusion" in mind for the UK, but I'm curious how many details you plan ahead.
Lastly, I'd like to say I found your ASHATW website years before I found this website and it is still one of my favorite alternate history timelines.
I find myself forgetting that this is a work of fiction...
I seriously look forward to seeing how this war works out, especially with the overeager Italians and the "neutral" Germans...
Oh, and I was wondering, how far ahead do you plan your timelines? I know that you already have a kind of "conclusion" in mind for the UK, but I'm curious how many details you plan ahead.
Lastly, I'd like to say I found your ASHATW website years before I found this website and it is still one of my favorite alternate history timelines.
That is a good point. With both the British and French navies occupied the Germans could set up a more ambitious colonisation plan, if the political will is there. We just might see the colonies, German East Africa in particular, gaining a much higher German population than OTL.
Thanks, it's a bit of an obscure area but the war couldn't have come at a better time for Madagascar; ITTL it's going to join Thailand and Liberia as one of the few holdouts to European colonisation.
You seem to know everything about everything in the realm of late 19th century history
I find myself forgetting that this is a work of fiction...
I am a little obsessive with the research but I find it really adds to the verisimilitude! It's amazing what you can turn up with google and Jstor really.
I generally have some end goals in mind, and then gradually work towards them filling in the detail along the way. For this TL I've made a deliberate effort to flesh out the world of the prologue and epilogue, so a lot is decided there now- more than bits of the TL proper, to be honest.
When I started writing this TL I had four central bullet points that were going to happen; Churchill as PM, the assassination of Queen Victoria, the Tory split, and an Anglo-French war. Absolutely everything else, including the exact circumstances of these things, was added along the way, often as a result of reading around the subject. Most of the fine detail is worked out more or less on the spot; the word document I used to plan with is about a side of A4, hasn't really been consulted since I started writing in earnest and had the general narrative cemented in my mind, and doesn't actually bear all that much resemblance to the finished product anyhow.
If you're interested, here's the entirety of my planning on what happens in Africa during this TL. It's a little thin when compared to the five or six chapters that I ended up spending on the subject...
FaBR Outline.docx said:
That's always nice to hear. I'm not planning to finish ASHATW (and if anyone wants to give it go, by all means do let me know), but I will have up on a new website soon.
Quite so, and it's also worth bearing in mind that both sides might be willing to offer generous colonial border concessions in return for a 'clarification' of their stasnce towards the conflict.
EdT, is Wilhelm II still Kaiser of Germany in the ATL (pardon me if i've missed something along the way- so many timelines, so little time)? If he is, given his 'diplomacy' was amongst some of the most cack-handed in history, is there a chance he will offend both sides of the war before the conflict ends? Perhaps alluding to future conflicts later on down the line? Am i thinking too far ahead again...
Kaiser Bill is still in charge ITTL, and in fact came in slightly earlier than OTL as Friedrich III didn't last long enough to succeed to the Imperial throne. He is just as bull-headed and cack-handed as OTL, but he does thankfully have a little less of an inferiority complex vis-a-vis Britain; he holds King Albert in contempt as a pathetic weakling, and the King is too pleasant and mild-mannered a fellow to stand up for himself. Paradoxically, this makes for a slightly easier relationship between the two men than between Wilhelm and Bertie OTL; the Kaiser occasionally condescends to be pleasant...
Not the Italians, that's for sure; they're taking the whole thing far too seriously. For a start, as of about October 1894 Puccini has given up on that stupid maudlin thing set in Paris and is working what he's already written into a new work, all about the doomed love between an Italian officer and a Tigrayan princess, provisionally entiteld "L'Abyssiniene".
Bump for love, hope everything is going alright Ed
He's on holiday. Should be back...
I Blame Communism
Banned
He is, and has posted some fascinating observations on Bonar-Law. I eagerly anticipate the return of FaBR.
Right, I'm officially back and this definitely isn't dead. I'm dividing my time between planning for my aforementioned novel and writing FaBR- The next installment is about half done, and in the near future you can expect piracy on the high seas, Rhodesian plotting aplenty, the late 19th-century equivalent of strategic bombing, camels, and at least two surprising invasions.
Do stay tuned.
I'm afraid not- the butterflies are restricted to Britain in 1882, and have not quite fluttered their way across the Channel by this point.
Do stay tuned.
I'm afraid not- the butterflies are restricted to Britain in 1882, and have not quite fluttered their way across the Channel by this point.
I Blame Communism
Banned
Ooh-raaaaaah! Ooh-raaaaaah!
Surprising invasions, eh? I wonder what's going on in Amapa... and for the other, something to do with King Leopold.
Surprising invasions, eh? I wonder what's going on in Amapa... and for the other, something to do with King Leopold.