Dunno if Ed's still answering questions on this magnificent TL, but one thing I've wondered about is the ongoing status of Hong Kong and the other European concessions and treaty ports in China (Tientsin, Shanggai International Settlement, Portuguese Macao, British Amoy, Shamian, etc.) as China rises in the early 20th Century. Presumably the British or the Japanese would take over all the French concessions in the War of the Dual Alliance, but what happens between then and 1932? If the foreigners manage to hang on through the 20s, I could see the concessions providing an early flashpoint and distraction to the Chinese in the first year of the Great War, diverting vital Chinese military resources from the decisive northern fronts against the Japanese and the Russians. I can imagine a four-sided street fight in Tientsin between the British, Japanese, Germans and Russians, before the Chinese swoop in, and perhaps a J.G. Ballard-analogue emerging from a British-German-American-Japanese (but not French) Shanghai International Settlement.
Also, could any light that can be shed on postwar SE Asia (broad outlines of who is in what alliance, if any.) Looking at the map, it appears the Chinese broke through the Himalayas in Northern Burma and Kashmir, and established independent states there, but some mystery remains regarding what happened in Vietnam (was there fighting between British Tonkin and German Annam, and did the Germans ever ask for their ex-colony back from their "ally"?), whether Burma is a Chinese satellite, an unincorporated hanger-on of the FWR, a member of the Manila Pact, or completely non-aligned-same questions about Malaya and Sarawak, Papua, Singapore, and how long can the Dutch hang on in Indonesia (did the Dutch join in the war at all?)
Hi,
Sorry, yes still answering questions- but haven’t been around for a bit, so only just seen this.
Let’s take China first. I think the most important point to bear in mind is that while you still have the pre-1880 Treaty Ports ITTL, the latter set of international concessions- Port Arthur, Weihaiwei et al- never happen, because there’s no occupation of the Liaodong peninsula after the *Sino-Japanese war. As a result, there’s no Triple Intervention, no Russian interference in Manchuria, no divvying up of Shandong and so on. The lack of a Boxer rebellion and subsequent protocols also gives China more breathing room, which is pretty vital in the Empire’s modernisation ITTL.
This still leaves Tientsin, Shanghai and so on; regaining full sovereignty over these places is a key diplomatic goal of the Empire in the early 20th Century, and while the whole system is swept away by the Treaty of Brussels ending the Great War in 1936, I assumed that China would been fairly successful too in chipping away at the concessions before this date. I figured Peking would use a mixture of carrot (”
give up or renegotiate the concessions and we’ll let Studebaker/Krupp/ICI build that factory they’ve been enquiring about”) and stick (“
oh dear, have patriotic students from Hankow occupied the Bund again? Shame that, we’ll send the police to evict them, eventually.”) to accomplish this, adhering to the letter of the agreements punctiliously while aggressively asserting sovereignty whenever possible.
I imagine the to-ing and fro-ing between the Shanghai Municipal Government and the International Settlement will be torturous and rather fascinating; I imagine you’d see the same Chinese tactics of boycott and protest as OTL, but more effectively coordinated with diplomatic pressure. I suspect the Chinese won’t occupy Shanghai come the war; it may well suit everyone for a small island of neutrality to persist in the region, as it did IOTL during WW1. It would certainly be great fun; I’m picturing *Ian Fleming playing blackjack in Club Obiwan with his fellow ‘cultural attachés’ Wilhelm Canaris, Mitsuhirato and Laventry Beria, while escaped POWs are smuggled across the Whampoa in one direction, and opium and military secrets in the other. TTL’s version of Casablanca is definitely set here. Hmm... I’m going to have to write something set there, aren’t I?
Hong Kong is swiftly occupied, of course; I think the Chinese will pretty much to the same to Macau, even though it’s the possession of an ally. Doubtless money will change hands and the Lisbon will miraculously (and belatedly) realise that the Chinese interpretation of the sovereignty agreement in the Sino-Portuguese Treaty of 1887 was entirely correct. Funny that! Both become part of China proper come 1936 and the Treaty of Brussels.
So, that’s China. Now SE Asia. I don’t know if you’ve seen
this map? It gives a general overview of the area; basically, the Chinese managed to occupy all of mainland Indochina apart from Malaya, and I saw the front stabilising somewhere around the Kra Isthmus by the end of the war. Burma, Annam, Thailand and Kampuchea are all Chinese clients, the Chinese having been rather more sincere about the whole anti-colonial thing the Japanese tried IOTL. At this point the afterglow of liberation means that nobody has quite got round to furiously resenting Chinese influence in the region yet, but it will happen soon enough.
As for what happened in the region, I don’t have much definitive, but I can certainly tell you the broad outline of what I was thinking. Basically the British occupied Annam and Kampuchea in 1932, and were then pushed out by the Chinese in 1934-5. The Chinese proclaimed the reunification of Tonkin and Annam as part of their offensive, and the Germans, while not particularly happy about it, could see the political utility of the move and weren’t in much of a position to dissent; later historians will doubtless single this out as the moment when German power began to decline, much as IOTL the Destroyers for Bases agreement is sometimes seen as the moment when the USA passed Britain in the Great Power stakes. As of 1940, Annam is a parliamentary democracy with an Emperor, much as China is.
Kashmir is a relic of the British Revolution, not the Great War; it, along with Nepal, Bhutan and Sikkim managed to avoid incorporation into the Indian Worker’s Republic, thanks to difficult terrain, Chinese assistance and a fair bit of luck.
Malaya and Sarawak are independent and members of the Manila Pact. Malaya saw some fighting during the British Revolution, but paradoxically this has probably strengthened the state; the Communists and the Chinese nationalists fish in the same demographic pool and don’t like each other very much, so while there are occasional guerrilla raids on the tin mines and rubber plantations, things aren’t at crisis level. Yet.
Indonesia is still Dutch as of 1940, but nobody expects the status quo to last for long. While Dutch neutrality in the Great War prevented anything similar to the experience of OTL, the Indonesian nationalist movement was already growing in the early 1930s, and seeing colonial rule collapse practically everywhere else in the region has bolstered their confidence hugely. I’d expect some sort of home rule be enacted by the mid-1940s, although probably initially only in Java and Sumatra; whether this is sufficient to satisfy the nationalists is another question. I could see the Chinese, Japanese, Australians and FWR all being determined to be the midwives of any new Indonesian state, and I imagine the potential implosion of the Dutch East Indies to be the source of a lot of international tension come the late 1940s or early 1950s, along with all the other ones of course!