Thanks, lothaw. Glad to have you on board! Long post, as always, your thoughts welcome.
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Winter 1849-50: Winfield Scott struggles to recover from the loss of nearly half his command. Going on the offensive in the spring will require a fresh flow of troops, but the ongoing secession crisis makes that unlikely. For Scott, therefore, the question is how to hold on to the gains he has made. After the departure of the Southern volunteer units, Scott has approximately 25,000 men. Rowan at Saint-Denis has around 27,000. Scott therefore focuses on strengthening his fortifications around Quebec and Montreal, expecting the aggressive, competent Rowan to attack hard once spring comes.
January 1850: America reels from the recent secession of eleven states. President Cass cannot believe that the crisis has reached this stage, but quickly reacts, addressing Congress (or, at least, its remaining members) in a joint session, stating “I should rather be impeached and removed from office than see any state removed from the Union.” He is mistaken, however, in assuming that the South’s grievances are limited to a personal dislike of him. Broader and far deeper than any of Cass’s administration had realized, the antipathy of Southerners for the North now constitutes a significant political movement.
Keeping in mind Calhoun’s dictum that the southern states should act in concert, the secessionist governments spend much of the month arranging a conference to decide a joint course of action, once again to be held in Charleston.
January 28, 1850: The Second Charleston Convention opens. No outsiders are allowed to attend, only officially appointed delegates. Some kind of unified government seems necessary; few Southerners think that Cass will willingly allow the secession of the southern states, and if war threatens, the South must fight together. However, the precise structure of this new government is elusive. After several days of debate, the notion of a confederation of states, less restrictive and centralized than the United States, is advanced, and quickly becomes popular among delegates.
February 5, 1850: The delegates at the Second Charleston Convention vote unanimously to unite into a confederation. The new country will be called the Confederate States of America. The delegates send word of the new government to the state governments, and begin work on a constitution.
February 6, 1850: Cass convenes his cabinet to discuss possible solutions to the Secession Crisis. Although the Cass Administration is aware that the Southerners intend to form a new national government, it is still believed that a peaceful resolution might be found that will bring the wayward states back into the Union.
Vice-President Polk suggests a peace conference, between North and South, to resolve their differences. No other workable suggestions are found; Secretary of War William Marcy is privately instructed by President Cass to begin war planning, in the event that Polk’s proposed peace conference fails.
February 19, 1850: The Constitution of the Confederate States of America is completed. It is very similar in wording to the Constitution of the United States, with a few key differences. Slavery is enshrined in the new Constitution, and much of the Confederate government’s power is restricted, especially governing interstate commerce. However, many of the Confederate war powers remain; the new government is preparing, ominously, to defend their new nation against possible “Northern aggression.”
The Convention wishes to name John C. Calhoun as president, but Calhoun’s ill-health makes that unreasonable. Instead, Calhoun is given the title of “President Emeritus” as a mark of honor for his long campaign for states’ rights. Instead, the position of President is given to the governor of North Carolina, William Alexander Graham. Augustus Longstreet, a fiery defender of slavery originally from Georgia, is appointed Vice-President. Alexander Stephens, the young man whose letter initiated the first Charleston Convention, is voted President of the new Confederate Senate.
February 20, 1850: Native Marylander and Confederate supporter Richard Andrews sneaks across the Maryland border into Washington D.C. If war comes, the Union capital may have to be moved, but for the moment, the business of government continues. Andrews carries with him documents intended for John Bloomfield, the British envoy to the United States. Andrews manages to make it to the British mission on Connecticut Avenue, and presents the documents to Bloomfield. Chief among them is a letter from Confederate President Graham, extending the hand of friendship to Great Britain, announcing the formation of the new nation, and requesting a normalization of relations between the Confederacy and the United Kingdom.
Bloomfield reads the documents, and swiftly pens a letter to Graham, informing him that while Great Britain is of course welcome to the notion of restoring peace between the United States and herself, any recognition of the breakaway nation would need to issue from the Prime Minister’s office and Royal approval. This letter is sent back with Andrews to head for Charleston, the de facto Confederate capital. Bloomfield immediately forwards the Confederate documents on to London.
February 23, 1850: The Confederacy reacts with mild approval to Polk’s notion of a peace conference. At the moment, they need time; time for their diplomatic overtures to Britain to succeed, and time to organize their military forces. The date of the conference is set for April 8.
March 7, 1850: President Graham’s letter, sent on by John Bloomfield, arrives in London. Lord Palmerston, the Foreign Secretary, is beside himself with glee at the United States’ situation. The rest of Britain, on the other hand, is less sanguine. The Confederacy is a slaveholding power, and Britain has a politically influential abolitionist movement. Public sentiment is mixed: some favor anything that weakens the United States, but others are concerned about the possible spread of slavery. In light of public opinion, Prime Minister Russell decides to hold back on any official recognition of the new Confederacy.
March 11, 1850: Lord Palmerston has had the weekend to think about the ramifications of recognizing the Confederacy, and decides to do it anyway, regardless of what Russell says. In private, he writes a letter to President Graham congratulating him on the success of his new nation and expressing the hope that the two nations, the Confederacy and Great Britain, will quickly normalize relations, thus ending British military action against the southern states. This letter is dispatched in secret; Palmerston regards foreign diplomacy as his own fief, and has no desire to let Russell meddle.
March 12, 1850: Jefferson Davis, returning to South Carolina from Mississippi, is informed by President Graham that Graham intends to make him a general in the new Confederate Army. Davis is enormously flattered, but is concerned he is not experienced enough. Graham overrides his concerns, pointing out that Davis is a military and national hero, and the South needs heroes at this time.
Still, the challenge in front of Davis is enormous. The volunteer militias must be recalled and transformed into an actual, national army, new units must be raised, supply lines must be laid down, and all this must be done without spooking the North too much. Davis sets to work with brio.
March 14, 1850: Word reaches Panama City that the British have lifted the blockade of Californian ports. Thousands of Forty-Eighters, who had reached the west coast of Panama only to find the way on to San Francisco blocked, resume their journey to California, bringing with them much needed supplies.
March 18, 1850: Major General Jefferson Davis, currently commander of the Confederate Army, issues orders that all United States Army posts in the South are to be confiscated by the new Confederate Army, peacefully if at all possible. Most forts throughout the South are already in Confederate hands; those that aren’t, quickly surrender.
Fort Bowyer, located on a peninsula off Mobile, Alabama, does not. On March 23, its small garrison refuses to surrender. Surrounded by British warships and Confederate troops, the gesture is courageous but foolhardy. The Confederacy, not content to allow this vital fort to remain in Union hands, lays siege.
March 23, 1850: Lord Palmerston’s letter is delivered to President Graham in Charleston. Graham is unaware that Palmerston is acting outside his brief; he believes that the Foreign Secretary has the backing of Lord Russell’s government. Delighted, Graham informs the newly formed Confederate Congress that they have been recognized as a sovereign nation by the United Kingdom. Reports of this diplomatic coup are published in the Charleston Courier and other Southern newspapers.
March 26, 1850: Via telegraph, President Lewis Cass has received word that the Confederacy has been recognized by Great Britain. Worse news could not be imagined. In Canada, the campaign season is about to begin, and Cass cannot afford to fight a war with the South while occupied on his northern border. All his hopes now rest with the peace conference.
Aware of the Fort Bowyer crisis, Cass has decided to order the surrender of the fort to the South. While this means losing face, he hopes it will be received in the South as a gesture of goodwill before the peace conference.
April 1, 1850: Thanks to the telegraph, Cass’s order to surrender Fort Bowyer can be at the fort in just six days. The garrison commander is both alarmed and appalled. The President can’t be serious, can he? Deciding there must have been some error, the commander sends back a message asking for clarification. In the meantime, he will continue to hold his post.
The Confederate troops outside the fort are starting to get bored and irritated. They want the Union troops inside to surrender, and to do it fast.
April 7, 1850: The Fort Bowyer commander’s message arrives in Washington D.C. Slightly put out, President Cass responds by reiterating his original message, and clarifies that the commander is to surrender immediately and in person to the Confederate commander as a gesture of goodwill.
April 8, 1850: The Washington Peace Conference opens. Vice-President James Polk is the chairman. The Southern states have dutifully sent delegates; they are all Confederate loyalists, and have been instructed to obstruct and delay the proceedings as long as possible. The Confederates do not believe that any genuine reconciliation is possible at this point; the differences between North and South are quite simply too great. Therefore, their only goal is to play for time.
Polk opens with what he hopes will be a stirring and inspirational speech. He has high hopes for the Conference; it seems that war between the breakaway states and the Union is imminent. From Polk’s point of view, that would be disastrous. So he is careful to draw attention in his speech to America’s long traditions of compromise, of mutual respect, and of fellowship. So caught up in his own vision of America is he that he fails to see the obvious boredom on the faces of the Southern delegates. Once Polk is finished, the leader of the Southern legation, Howell Cobb, politely and firmly lays out the Confederate position: Cass’s war is illegal, their own external trade has been decimated, and their internal security threatened. They want an end to the war, reparations from the Federal government, and slavery to be institutionalized in the Constitution.
Predictably, the Conference devolves into chaos as soon as Cobb finishes. The Northern delegates are outraged, the Southerners defensive. Polk’s high-mindedness has gone right out the window.
April 9, 1850: A quiet night in most of Mobile, Alabama. Mobile Point, the site of Fort Bowyer, is currently occupied by a small force of 100 Confederate volunteers, who have been tasked with keeping an eye on the Federal forces, also quite small, inside the fort. The volunteers are ill-trained and jumpy. Many have joined up because they want a chance to shoot at some Yankees.
At around 1 a.m. the Fort Bowyer guard changes. While climbing onto the parapet, one of the new guards trips and drops his lantern. Breaking open, the lantern spills oil everywhere, which flashes momentarily into flame.
The Confederate volunteers are startled to see a sudden flash of flame from the fort. For the past few weeks, messengers have been coming and going to the fort. Is this some kind of sneak attack, a cannon being fired at them? Twitchy and on edge as it is, the early morning and sleepless night does little for their reflexes, and several young men take aim at the fort with their rifles and open fire.
The Fort Bowyer garrison reacts predictably: believing themselves to be under attack by the Confederates, they return fire. In the dark it is impossible to hit anyone, and come morning, there have been no fatalities during the short-lived exchange.
However, shots have been fired between Union and Confederate troops. In the morning, the Confederate commander decides that the Federal troops will not be surrendering. He orders his small complement of artillery to begin bombarding the fort.
April 10, 1850: Third Battle of Quebec, Day One: The Canadian campaign season has begun. For the first time, Scott is on the defensive; his fortifications around Quebec are almost titanic, ringing the city with an impenetrable barrier of ditches, berms, moats, and walls. Rowan, for his part, has gone on the offensive. When his army arrives at Quebec he is almost tempted to give up and go home. The place is impregnable. Still, Rowan is no quitter. He has two options: ignore Quebec and attack someplace else, like Montreal, or lay siege. The first is completely impractical, as doing so would leave a powerful army at his back. A siege it is, then.
Scott is well prepared for a siege. If he lacks men, he makes up for it in supplies. The entirety of the winter, he has been bringing up munitions and food. His goal is simple: force Rowan to assault the city, and in doing so make sure the British take heavy casualties.
April 12, 1850: After three days bombardment, Fort Bowyer surrenders, just hours before Cass’s messenger arrives instructing them to do so. The damage has been done.
April 14, 1850: “The Last Peaceful Sunday”: Word arrives in Washington D.C. and in Charleston of what is being called the Battle of Fort Bowyer. Positions harden on both sides. For the Southerners, it is a sign that the North will not willingly leave the Confederacy to its own devices. To the Union, it is a shocking, unprovoked attack on Union soldiers by the Confederacy.
April 15, 1850: Britain’s political class is stunned to learn that the United Kingdom has recognized the Confederacy; this is the first they’ve heard of it, and they are hearing of it from an unlikely source: Southern newspapers, just now arriving from ships out of port cities such as Charleston. The Times of London runs the story on the front page. The article is notable in the emphasis it places on slavery. In Parliament, the opposition reacts with outrage. Russell’s government had no mandate to recognize the Confederacy, and the leaders of the opposition, Robert Peel and Edward Smith-Stanley, are extremely vocal in their condemnation of Russell’s perceived actions.
Russell, for his part, is baffled and furious. He has given specific instructions that the Confederacy was not to be recognized, and Palmerston ignored him.
In Washington, the Peace Conference has ground to a halt. The Confederates and Federals both are demanding the other side apologize for the Fort Bowyer incident. Neither side will budge. At 2:30 p.m. the Confederate delegation abruptly stands and leaves. Only Howell Cobb remains, and he informs Vice-President Polk that, unfortunately, “the great chains that once harnessed our nation to you have been severed, irrevocably, by your own rifles and your own cannon. We shall defend ourselves with ours.”
April 18, 1850: Although Russell is quick to distance himself from Palmerston’s actions, his administration has been dealt a fatal blow. Always perceived as weak, Russell is now seen as unable to reign in his subordinates. Parliament convenes, and a motion of no confidence against the Prime Minister is introduced.
Third Battle of Quebec, Day Eight: Exchanges between British and American troops have been light for the past week. Rowan is no fool, and against the massive fortifications of Quebec his only hope is to starve the Americans out. The Americans, meanwhile, are on strict rations, but are nowhere near starving. Scott calculates he can last months before he runs out of food or bullets. For the people of Quebec, however, the prospect of a third siege in as many years is a nightmare, but they can do little with a massive American occupying army in their city.
April 19, 1850: The motion of no confidence against the Prime Minister passes. Russell’s government collapses.
President Lewis Cass addresses Congress. Admitting that the war in Canada has been less than successful, he nonetheless argues that now, at this time, the Union must draw together, and cannot allow itself to be broken apart. It is one union, indivisible. “Our brethren to the South have chosen the path of violence. They have staked out the road of war, to be lain down by their cannon and their soldiers. They have done so brutally, without provocation and without shame. And so, to preserve our union, we must sadly take up arms against our brothers, so that the error of their ways might be made plain to them, as plain as a cannon shot.” Cass calls for 90,000 troops to be provided to restore the secessionist states to the Union.
The American Civil War has begun.
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NB: Palmerston really did cause the collapse of Russell's government OTL; he just did it by recognizing Napoleon III's coup in 1851, rather than Confederate independence.
It wasn't my plan for the siege of Fort Bowyer to happen at the same time (eleven years earlier) as the Battle of Fort Sumter, it just worked out that way. But U.S. Army forts are going to be an issue between USA and CSA in any ACW TL.