The F-5 and F-104 get a hammering.
That’s more than ambitious for Ireland tbh, there just wouldn’t be the economy to sustain such a build up, nor the political/military will. Also you’d pretty much have to replace the entire leadership of the DF and Government to get such a view on air power. Then you get into the pack of infrastructure and industrial/educational capacity for the level of growth you are suggesting.
It’s not just population, there’s also economics, with Ireland lagging massively until the 90s, the spend you are suggesting just isn’t economically sustainable for OTL Ireland even with a reasonable defence budget.
When I first read the post I assumed because its fictional the matter of money could be ignored to a degree. Manpower is a very different matter and the numbers become to hi IMHO if for no other reason I would see a nation that could afford an airforce that size and capability would be more navy focused and hence not only less money for aircraft but some of the said purchases would have to have marine capabilities . I did like what i read and its not like as if I had not wondered about a far larger Irish AF, Army and navy
The initial post stated that the idea was to defend neutrality along the lines of Sweden. The threat at a guess would have been either side WW2 & then cold war.
Indeed, though as you said for a force like that, Ireland would have to be taking an aggressive position on neutrality which suggests a much larger navy as well which would pull the AC into more maritime patrol operations which is missing to a great degree in the list. You are also most likely talking about a much enlarged helicopter demand from both the navy and army in such case again eating into the funding.
Also the idea of having such a wide range of aircraft would be a huge issue for most nations the size of Ireland, at best it would be much more limited in scope.
The FGA9 was a fighter bomber, they were still going to be the backbone of RAFG into the early 70's for BAI/CAS as a replacement for Canberra's.
The original "plans" by GHQ in the period had intentions for full 4 brigades for the Army, a Navy with a squadron of Destroyers and a light Cruiser, and an AC of up to 10 squadrons (mix between fighters, medium bombers/reconnaissance, coastal patrol and maybe army liaison) but Finance was never going to allow any of that, holding the till today that defence isn't worth spending on. During the lead up to the war and with discussions with the UK the numbers bounced around between 2-5 fighter squadrons, 2 medium bomber/reconnaissance squadrons and an amphibious patrol squadron, all of which had some minor effort put in and then abandoned.
As ever with the Anglo-Irish relationship its "complicated" even then. While Dev and the Cabinet were to varying degrees hostile to London, at the civil service and military level there was a better relationship (even though for the most part the Irish were out of their depth in areas), and very much took the lead from the CID in what Ireland needed hence the Walrus's. The CID suggested 19 Blenheim's be purchased through the Air Ministry for example (but given Dev's position on the Commonwealth we didn't use that offer), along with a squadron of flying boats and around 19 fighters (first suggesting Hurricanes or Spitfires but downgrading it to Gladiators due to costs) as of 1938. The AC OTL also had ex RAF officers on and off in service and the officer that basically made the orders didn't in OTL look outside of the UK for aircraft. Then you get into supply issues, the UK manufacturers would be the closet and most easily accessible for the Irish particularly if you were talking about an enlarged AC.
Again though the Swedes throughout the 20th century have a far bigger budget profile to play with, along with aspects like Conscription which just isn't going to happen in Ireland. There's also as I've said the influence of the UK, with a lot of the equipment/doctrine being influenced by them. There's also different aspects in play, if the Troubles kicks off OTL, there's going to be more pressure for helicopter purchases, if the Republic follows OTL in UN operations will there be more demand for transport aircraft or helicopters for said deployments? Surveillance aircraft for both at home and on deployments...
Very unlikely to happen, remember the NS is the youngest service and matches the AC for least loved and even worse isn't even in Dublin! Even assuming a stronger neutrality position the AC would long have had the Patrol duties and would be loath to give them up to anyone else. The NS only came into being after WW2, and again even if you use the earlier POD'S to create one, they would be hard pressed just to build up a navy, let alone play with aircraft.
Earlier than late 30's isn't really on the radar for the Irish Government tbh dealing with the aftermath of the Great Depression, despite the efforts of GHQ to try and even get the Government to set a policy on Defence. It's only post 1936 that efforts were made in OTL which as I've said had huge ambitions depending on who was proposing what, but aircraft aren't even sourced till 1937/38, more would have been bought but the War basically cut off that supply once we declared neutrality.
FWIW insufficient production capacity to meet the demands of the RAF and the export market didn't help and neither did the outbreak of World War II.
Wonder if you had a POD of both better Anglo-Irish relations and a more active DF whether or not some additional industrial capacity could have been built up in Ireland at the time?
