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My first scenario. Surprised no one has asked this question.

Let's suppose the Jesuits and Franciscans were successful in converting a large portion of 16th century Japan to Catholicism. Indeed, in actual history the religious orders were successful for a time, perhaps because the Jesuits realized the value of inculturation. Nevertheless, the feudal lords considered Christianity (and Catholicism in particular) a foreign threat to be crushed rather than accommodated. Even so, some interaction with European traders remained.

I would suppose that in order for Catholicism (and in general Christianity) to take hold in feudal Japan, the following alternative historical events would need to take place.

* A protracted series of wars and intrigues over religious and foreign trade would have stalled the rise of the Tokugawa shogunate and given some breathing room for missionaries. Perhaps some of the feudal lords would have converted their realms to Catholicism, and others would have remained part of traditional Japanese culture. The Tokugawa unification would never have taken place, and Japan would remain divided into kingdoms based on "religious" affiliation. Eventually, a series of wars within both realms would have solidified the Catholic and traditional fiefdoms into two separate shogunates. Only the traditional realms would recognize the Emperor as a socio-spiritual leader, given that his decent from the sun-god would contradict Christian beliefs.

* the Catholic shogunate would have embraced Spanish, Portuguese, (and later) Dutch and English traders, while the traditional lords would have maintained an essentially East Asian trade outlook and socio-ethnically and ritually homogenous society. The Christian realms would have incorporated some European settlers and ideas, more than in actual history. It's hard to tell whether the Christian realms would have rebelled eventually against heavy-handed European trade tactics, or have been able to leverage a common religious identity into an equitable trading relationship.

* Then there is the question of later Reformation influences via English and Dutch traders. Should Catholicism and trade with the West have triumphed in certain parts of Japan, inevitable trade with the English and Dutch would introduce Protestant concepts into Japanese Catholicism. Three scenarios are possible.

+ First, the Catholic lords might have suppressed the introduction of Protestantism in Japan by favoring the Spanish and Portuguese (and by extension) Catholic ritual. This would have severely limited trade opportunities with the Dutch and English, as favoritism towards Catholicism might appear to be favoritism towards the Spanish and Portuguese. I suspect that the Japanese Catholic lords would welcome European trade in all forms, regardless of a particular nation's confession, thereby limiting the plausibility of this scenario.

++ Second, Japanese Catholicism might have grafted Reformed/Lutheran Christian practices and theology onto pre-existing Catholic structures, creating a unique Japanese Christianity. I am certain that the Spanish and Portuguese would have used force/sanctions to prevent this, initiating yet another civil war.

+++ Third, the Japanese Christians living around the Dutch and English outposts would have converted to Protestantism, while the Japanese surrounding the Spanish and Portuguese outposts would have remained Catholic. Hence parts of modern Japan might look like modern South Korea insofar as South Korea contains large reformed Christian and Catholic populations coexisting peacefully alongside practitioners of Buddhism and traditional Korean practices.


Some potential roadblocks:

--- In actual history, the Japanese had already developed a strong cultural/religious ethos centuries before the arrival of european missionaries and traders. While Catholic missions were somewhat successful, their message reached relatively few people. Perhaps even the conversion of certain lords would not have persuaded large numbers of Japanese to radically reshape their culture. Given the already chaotic landscape of 16th century Japan, conversion by the sword would have resulted in even more brutal wars.

--- Perhaps Rome would have stalled Jesuit attempts to develop a Japanese expression of Catholicism, much as in China. The wide divergence between Latin liturgy and Japanese culture would have necessitated compromises, e.g. Mass in Japanese with some Christianized Japanese iconography, maybe the incorporation of certain traditional Japanese rituals, etc.

-- Perhaps the mixing of various european cultures, trade motivations, and religious confessions would have sparked another Japanese civil war destroying the Christianized shogunate and bleeding over into the traditional shogunate. Hence, the relative "peace" of the Tokugawa shogunate would have fallen under yet more endless civil war.

Enjoy and tell me what you think.
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