Ferdinand II killed in 1619?

[Vitruvius]

Who do you suspect could be a suitable claimant for the Protestant side, in opposition to whatever Spanish-backed Habsburg the Catholics decide to rally around?

The Danish might actually accomplish some of their goals here, if the Catholics are occupied in Austria and Bohemia.

I'm not sure, I don't even think that's terribly likely merely a possible outcome. I guess I was thinking that if Frederick gets Bohemia and pulls the abdication stunt he could vote for John George. Its tricky because the calvinists aren't exactly on the best terms with the moderate Lutherans. So some Lutheran princes may throw their support behind a Catholic before a Calvinist prince. I think you'd need Spain to really agitate the protestants across Germany.

Maybe if Frederick gets Bohemia and Spain invades the Palatinate in retaliation as its easier to attack him there than in Bohemia. Since Frederick is not under a ban such an attack would really rile up the protestants across Germany. Then the Habsburgs insist on a Habsburg pretender to Bohemia casting it's vote and show up to Frankfurt with armed guards. Not willing to see the HRE become a Spanish Catholic client state John George steps up as candidate and Frederick pulls an abdication stunt to get the extra vote. The Catholic electors then decamp to some other city, probably Regensburg or maybe Aachen and have a counter election. It's plausible but I don't know how likely it is compared to a failed election and an interregnum. There might be a fight in Nuremberg over the Imperial Regalia as possessing them might be worth something while a symbolic coronation in Aachen might be used to add the air of legitimacy.

There is a precedent for this - notably the election that saw Ludwig IV become emperor. It was disputed who was the "rightful" king of Bohemia, Heinrich of Carinthia of Jan of Luxemburg, and the one side wound up electing Ludwig, one elected Friedrich of Habsburg. Despite the fact that the election was contested, IIRC no one actually argued that Ludwig wasn't emperor.

True but that was before the Golden Bull of 1356 which more tightly regulated the Imperial Elections. Plus they had to fight it out until essentially come to terms with each other. I have to check but I think the other Electors have the ability to admit or refuse to admit another Elector into the assembly of Electors. I think this was related to their privilege of being able to self assemble without requiring the Emperor's assent.

In 1619 IIRC the Electors, save for Frederick's representatives, refused to admit representatives from the Bohemian Estates who were essentially also Frederick's representatives, and instead acknowledged Ferdinand. Of course that was in the context of Frederick being a usurper in many people's eyes so a more legitimate Election might garner him some support. Then it's unclear what happens if the remaining Electors split 3-3 on who to recognize as King of Bohemia. I'll try and look through Wilson or Whaley for details. I think I still have a copy of Heer's book somewhere too so one of them will probably spell it out.

 

[Old1812]

I'm not sure, I don't even think that's terribly likely merely a possible outcome. I guess I was thinking that if Frederick gets Bohemia and pulls the abdication stunt he could vote for John George. Its tricky because the calvinists aren't exactly on the best terms with the moderate Lutherans. So some Lutheran princes may throw their support behind a Catholic before a Calvinist prince. I think you'd need Spain to really agitate the protestants across Germany

Apologies, I didn't mean to put words in your mouth. I take it you mean Frederick would abdicate his Electoral title in favor of Henry Frederick, who obviously requires a regent - himself, Elizabeth Stuart, or his uncle Philip?

 

[Comte de Dordogne]

Since several messages some people have been putting forward a possible candidacy of a Protestant prince of the Holy Roman Empire.
But is it at least possible for a Protestant to ascend the throne of the Holy Roman Empire? Although rather theoretical, the legitimacy of the Holy Empire comes from the Pope.

As far as the conflict itself is concerned, there is a good chance that it will not be exported to the north of the Holy Roman Empire, with the war in the Habsburg domain and the Bohemian crown the war could remain limited.
What exported the war was Ferdinand II's promise of the Palatinate to Maximilian of Bavaria in exchange for his support in the Bohemian War, it was this attack on a Protestant land that motivated the Protestant Union to intervene in the conflict.
But if Ferdinand II dies and can no longer guarantee the Palatinate, what would motivate Maximilian to participate in the conflict? Probably to prevent Frederick of the Palatinate from taking Bohemia.
Since the conflict would remain in Bohemia and therefore not concern the domain of a Protestant prince, the Protestant Union could continue to remain outside the conflict. The resumption of the war between Spain and the United Provinces could also be postponed because without Spanish intervention in the Rhine valley and the Palatinate to help the Catholic League, Spain would have no reliable route to resume the conflict in the Netherlands.
Without exporting the conflict to the Baltic, Denmark and Sweden have no reason to intervene in the conflict. In France the butterflies could cause the destitution of Richelieu or even the ousting of Louis XIII and make all the subsidies that Paris gave to Denmark and Sweden (as well as the mediation between Stockholm and Warsaw) disappear.
Butterflies are so numerous that it is difficult to quantify them all.

 

[Vitruvius]

Apologies, I didn't mean to put words in your mouth. I take it you mean Frederick would abdicate his Electoral title in favor of Henry Frederick, who obviously requires a regent - himself, Elizabeth Stuart, or his uncle Philip?

I didn't think you were. And yes to Henry Frederick. Its a pretty crazy idea but its the only way I could think of for the Protestants to get a majority for an election.

Since several messages some people have been putting forward a possible candidacy of a Protestant prince of the Holy Roman Empire.
But is it at least possible for a Protestant to ascend the throne of the Holy Roman Empire? Although rather theoretical, the legitimacy of the Holy Empire comes from the Pope.

Well I think you can separate the constitutional/legal questions from a broader question of legitimacy in so much as the Electors had the exclusive right to Elect whomever they wished by simple majority vote regardless of what the Pope thought. That had been entrenched into Imperial law for a while now such that whomever they Elected would automatically become King of Germany/King of the Romans. That's one of the reasons why the Emperors Elect and ceased to even be crowned by the Pope by the time in question.

On the other hand legal as it may be the election of a Protestant would definitely be disclaimed by the Pope reducing his legitimacy which wouldn't help in the case of a already contested election. So it's definitely breaking with tradition and courting all kinds of problems. The Imperial Church, which still had a large administrative role in HRE likely wouldn't recognize a protestant specifically banned/prohibited by the Pope. Its definitely a pandoras box that's opened and I don't really know what would happen in the long term.

 

[Vitruvius]

Also I kind of think that war between Spain and the Netherlands is inevitable at this point. I can't speak to the Dutch side specifically thought IIRC there was a strong war party lead by many of the people who were exiles from the southern Netherlands. But in Madrid there was definitely a great movement for War. Albert and a few wiser people were strongly in favor of renewing the 12 years truce but most of the Spanish court thought that Spain was loosing the Peace, especially as regards its loss of trade to the Dutch (most critically in the East Indies as Portugal was still in the Iberian Union at this point). And Spanish policy at the time was so guided by reputacion that a lot of them felt that Spain had to fight to preserve its power status and honor.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

As far as the conflict itself is concerned, there is a good chance that it will not be exported to the north of the Holy Roman Empire, with the war in the Habsburg domain and the Bohemian crown the war could remain limited.

Not really. Saying war was inevitable is a bit extreme, but the scenario before 1618 was anything but peaceful. Off the top of my head, the conflicts that there were immediately leading up to it:

War of the Jülich Succession (considered by many to be the dress rehearsal for the 30YW same as the Franco-Prussian War was for WWI)​

Brandenburg and Sweden eyeballing each other over Pomerania​

Sweden and Poland eyeballing one another over Sweden​

The whole Russian Time of Troubles​

Spain and the Netherlands​

France and the Huguenots​

France and Spain​

Lorraine's succession​

And I'm sure there were far more smaller conflicts within the entirety of Germany itself. The 30YW simply cloaked a lot of these lesser conflicts. So to think Europe would be "at peace" is probably not likely.

 

[Comte de Dordogne]

Not really. Saying war was inevitable is a bit extreme, but the scenario before 1618 was anything but peaceful. Off the top of my head, the conflicts that there were immediately leading up to it:

War of the Jülich Succession (considered by many to be the dress rehearsal for the 30YW same as the Franco-Prussian War was for WWI)​

You must have misunderstood my message (or I must have misunderstood my explanation) but in no way did I say that Europe would remain at Peace.
Moreover if the conflict is exported from Austria to Bohemia it will delay its expansion towards the north of the Holy Roman Empire, the main reason being that the Protestant Union OTL did not intervene during the Bohemian War because the conflict did not affect the lands of a Protestant prince and was limited to the Habsburg domains. ITTL with the untimely death of Ferdinand II the conflict could remain limited or it could be exported later and radically different.
For the other conflicts, although I have not mentioned them, they will probably take place but could start earlier, later and lead to totally different results, not forgetting the foreign support that could fluctuate (for example that of France to the Scandinavian powers).

Brandenburg and Sweden eyeballing each other over PomeraniaSweden and Poland eyeballing one another over Sweden

If the war remains limited to the south of the Empire long enough we could see Sweden continuing the war against Poland longer than after 1629.
A war with Brandenburg for Pomerania could go hand in hand with the Polish-Swedish war, or even ironically involve the Protestant Union assisting the Brandenburg prince against Gustav Adolf of Sweden.
But in both scenarios it should not be forgotten that French subsidies may not exist or may be very small.

Spain and the Netherlands

As far as Spain and the United Provinces are concerned the conflict resumed OTL in 1621 after the ascension to the throne of Felipe IV and his Olivares ministry. But with the crisis of succession in Austria, a delayed intervention in Bohemia, the Palatinate and the Rhine valley Spain was in a worse position to restart the conflict with the Dutch.

France and the HuguenotsFrance and Spain

As far as France and the Huguenots are concerned, it depends to what extent the butterflies have affected France. If we assume that Louis XIII and Richelieu are still at the head of the kingdom there is a good chance that the French Protestants will be crushed again.
The war between France and Spain also depends on what happens in the Holy Empire, this could precipitate the conflict or delay it.
But if Richelieu is ejected to see Louis XIII and we end up with another councillor or Gaston of Orléans, it is not certain that the war against the Huguenots will end in the same way. It was also added that if Gaston took power, France could fall (at least for a while) into the Habsburg camp, which would further upset the European political scene and prevent a war between Paris and Madrid.

There was also the war of the Hessian succession, which could also go in a completely different direction. Moreover, the butterflies could reach the British Isles, who have given up intervening on the continent, but could change their minds if circumstances are favourable to them. Or there is Gabriel Bethlen, a Hungarian from Transylvania who in 1619 almost took Vienna.
On the other hand in my development I am totally unaware of the imperial election because I don't know how it works and the potential candidates. But it goes without saying that the election also has an impact and can totally change my development.

 

[Old1812]

Any ideas for what can happen to England ITTL? James I was extremely hesitant to intervene in the conflict even after Bohemia was taken by the Habsburgs, so perhaps he would be even less willing to do so here. Of course, Frederick V was a usurper IOTL, and isn't here, but a lot of this likely depends on how the Protestant forces do against the Habsburgs, and the Habsburg policy toward Protestants.

Can it be assumed that Charles will still marry Henrietta Maria?

 

[VVD0D95]

Any ideas for what can happen to England ITTL? James I was extremely hesitant to intervene in the conflict even after Bohemia was taken by the Habsburgs, so perhaps he would be even less willing to do so here. Of course, Frederick V was a usurper IOTL, and isn't here, but a lot of this likely depends on how the Protestant forces do against the Habsburgs, and the Habsburg policy toward Protestants.

Can it be assumed that Charles will still marry Henrietta Maria?

I think that James will probably remain hesitant here, he knew that going to war would require recalling Parliament, and Parliament would demand heads on plates before giving him the money he'd need for the war.

And, that depends is James still angling for a Spanish marriage?

 

[Old1812]

I think that James will probably remain hesitant here, he knew that going to war would require recalling Parliament, and Parliament would demand heads on plates before giving him the money he'd need for the war.

And, that depends is James still angling for a Spanish marriage?

Very likely James is still trying to force the square peg of a Spanish marriage through the round hole of a very Protestant England. He was still trying for it even after Spanish armies were invading the Palatinate. I seriously doubt he'll manage it: Paul V won't grant it, and Maria Anna didn't want it either.

Of course, the consequences would be hilarious if Charles dies in this period.

 

[VVD0D95]

Very likely James is still trying to force the square peg of a Spanish marriage through the round hole of a very Protestant England. He was still trying for it even after Spanish armies were invading the Palatinate. I seriously doubt he'll manage it: Paul V won't grant it, and Maria Anna didn't want it either.

Of course, the consequences would be hilarious if Charles dies in this period.

In which case one imagines that France may be considered as they were otl.

 

[Old1812]

At the moment, I'm thinking Albert VII seems like a good choice for the imperial election, as he's already Archduke of Austria. He'll probably stay in the Netherlands and has Karl/Leopold take charge of matters in Austria.

 

[Vitruvius]

Yeah, on the one hand that seems best. Maybe the best outcome for the Habsburgs would be Leopold also dies in the melee in Vienna. Then the Habsburgs could consolidate. Charles serves as regent for young Ferdinand who gets Tyrol and Inner Austria and, with some Spanish support, Upper and Lower Austria. He's probably also able to secure Croatia but Hungary is a big question mark. Spain gets Further Austria/Breisgau/Alsace. Albert is elected Emperor as he's pretty non-controversial. Then everyone crosses their fingers that he lives until young Ferdinand comes of age (though we already know that he will not). What happens next is anyone's guess.

The big problem with that scenario is that if Leopold dies that kind of implies that things go very badly in Vienna which may mean that the situation is not retrievable for the Habsburgs. Hard to say.

 

[Old1812]

Yeah, on the one hand that seems best. Maybe the best outcome for the Habsburgs would be Leopold also dies in the melee in Vienna. Then the Habsburgs could consolidate. Charles serves as regent for young Ferdinand who gets Tyrol and Inner Austria and, with some Spanish support, Upper and Lower Austria. He's probably also able to secure Croatia but Hungary is a big question mark. Spain gets Further Austria/Breisgau/Alsace. Albert is elected Emperor as he's pretty non-controversial. Then everyone crosses their fingers that he lives until young Ferdinand comes of age (though we already know that he will not). What happens next is anyone's guess.

The big problem with that scenario is that if Leopold dies that kind of implies that things go very badly in Vienna which may mean that the situation is not retrievable for the Habsburgs. Hard to say.

Indeed, the plan was supposedly that Ferdinand would be killed and the Protestant army invited in, and if this happens, it'll be a while longer before they can pose a threat to Gabriel Bethlen or Frederick V.

 

[Vitruvius]

I kind of also have a theory developing that the worse things go in Vienna the more likely John George is to become King of Bohemia. So if Leopold dies and the Habsburg situation really collapses in Lower Austria and Hungary then maybe John George would accept the Bohemian invitation to become King since there is really no clear alternative to oppose him. I could see him thinking that he could serve as a moderating/stabilizing influence to keep things from getting any more out of hand. He could see his role as preventing the Bohemians from invading Austria further and/or to prevent Bethlen from making a play for Bohemia or Austria. Just a thought. I don't know what everyone else thinks.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Merry Christmas to all:

I found this about a scenario on a Russian thread where there's no 30YW thanks to reasons - long story short, Maximilian III's bid to become king of Poland is more successful and he marries Anna Wasa as part of the peace agreements. (copied from googletranslate, excuses for if it's unclear or vague (the original post is here by a user called Abramy)

But even after a 30-year war, the situation could have turned out for the Czechs much better than it turned out in reality!

At the end of the 30-year war, Emperor Ferdinand III, as it turned out, was ready to make much stronger concessions.

In 1645-1648, Ferdinand 3 was ready and to abandon both the recatolization of the Czech lands and the restitution of church property in the Czech lands and the redistribution of lands and property in favor of German Catholics in the Czech lands, with the return of Protestant emigrants and with the return of all of them. lands and their property and abandon the new state structure in the Czech lands introduced in 1627, etc.

The actual emperor Ferdinand 3 was already ready to go for unconditional surrender!

All this was given in the secret instructions of Emperor Ferdinand 3 to the head of his delegation at the Westphalian peace negotiations, Count Trautsmansdorff.

But the count, with his immensely skillful diplomacy, was able to concede on some points (non-interference in the Franco-Spanish war and not provide assistance to the Spanish army in the Spanish Netherlands) to recapture everything else (and what Ferdinand 3 was already ready to give unconditionally) and therefore Ferdinand 3 ( like the Catholics in the HRE) came out of the 30-year war not completely plucked to a goal!


Well, all this cost Count Trautsmansdorff such a nervous tension that soon after the signing of the peace treaty in 1650, he dies!

Well, if Count Trautsmansdorff died, for example, in 1647, and we can say for sure that Ferdinand 3 would have been plucked to a goal in the peace negotiations!

And the situation in the Czech lands would have returned, politically, at the beginning of the 1600s, except that 1/4 of what was left of the Czechs there was at the beginning of the 17th century, and if one does not count the destroyed economy of the country in the trash!

However, in the German lands (apart from relatively few and that's how to say), the affected Austria proper) was no better!

But in this version, the Czech lands remain Protestant, according to the national doctrine of the Chalice!

And the chasniks themselves, although Protestants, are, nevertheless, for the most part so moderate that they could go to prayer communication with Orthodox Christians from Lithuania and the Russian state, and even to some kind of union with the Orthodox.

This would greatly strengthen the position of both Czech Protestants and Orthodox Christians.

If, in reality, the Czech lands became the industrial base of the Austrian Empire by the beginning of the 19th century, then even before the start of the 30-year war, everything went to this!

The Habsburgs gained absolutely nothing from the defeat of the Czech lands and the collapse of the Bohemian economy during the 30-year war, but they lost a lot!


But in a different situation - there is no 30-year war, then the economic growth in the Czech lands would be so significant that the question arises, whether the beginning of the Industrial Revolution would have happened from the Czech lands.

By the beginning of the 17th century, it was Bohemia that was closest to this!

And with this development of events, the first steam engines would begin to work in Bohemia.

And by the middle of the 18th century, Bohemia was already becoming the Workshop of the World!

Coal and iron ore, like other minerals, are not only no less than in England. and even much more!

I'm not even saying that there was less silver in the Czech lands than in the Americas, but not much!

And if the most massive silver coin in the world was the Maria Theresa thaler, then it will be even cooler earlier.

And Bohemia becomes the economic and political center of the entire Habsburg domain.

And using the economic potential of Bohemia, the Habsburgs as Czech kings, electors and emperors of the HRE can do anything in Germany and according to their domain (or rather, not even them, but Czech industrialists, bankers and merchants).

And in this way the case turns into a Czech foreign yoke over Germany.

It is also clear that all Czech artisans in Bohemia and Silesia are not getting enough space.

If the horrors of the 30-year war are absent, then the Czech population will grow rapidly.

This means that there will be emigration from Bohemia of Czech specialists and artisans in particular.

Both the Lithuanian and Moscow Habsburgs can get a lot of Czech craftsmen.

If in reality it was mainly Germans who went to Russia, then nationally close Czechs will go here.

@Valena

 

[Old1812]

I kind of also have a theory developing that the worse things go in Vienna the more likely John George is to become King of Bohemia. So if Leopold dies and the Habsburg situation really collapses in Lower Austria and Hungary then maybe John George would accept the Bohemian invitation to become King since there is really no clear alternative to oppose him. I could see him thinking that he could serve as a moderating/stabilizing influence to keep things from getting any more out of hand. He could see his role as preventing the Bohemians from invading Austria further and/or to prevent Bethlen from making a play for Bohemia or Austria. Just a thought. I don't know what everyone else thinks.

Oh wow, the dynamic of the war changes considerably without the isolated nature of the Palatinate. On the other hand, do you think John George would turn against the Habsburgs without being forced to?

 

[Vitruvius]

Merry Christmas to all:

I found this about a scenario on a Russian thread where there's no 30YW thanks to reasons - long story short, Maximilian III's bid to become king of Poland is more successful and he marries Anna Wasa as part of the peace agreements. (copied from googletranslate, excuses for if it's unclear or vague (the original post is here by a user called Abramy)



@Valena

Merry Christmas

I don't think that his characterizations of the Trauttmansdorf's proposals are entirely accurate. IIRC Trauttmansdorf was actually out on a limb a bit in Westphalia with the concessions he was willing to make on the religious questions. But it was mainly haggling over autonomy, which is to say freedom of conscience and right to private worship. He was willing to concede it to Protestants in Catholic lands but explicitly not in the Erblande. I think at one point he was proposing some minor concessions on autonomy in the Erblande but that's not the same as undoing the re-Catholicization of those lands. And in any event it was opposed by the court in Vienna so it was never included in any of the draft treaties.

Of course things were certainly touch and go after Jankau so that's not to say that things couldn't have gone differently than OTL and a final peace certainly could have included greater concessions. And his point is well taken that a stronger Bohemia would provide a great power base to the Habsburgs, though with the caveat that the strength of the Bohemian Estates vis a vis the King would always dictate whether the Habsburgs would be able to marshal that strength towards their own dynastic goals. I'm not sure I follow the references to Orthodox Christians unless he's referring to ATL religious situation in an ATL Habsburg Poland.

 

[Vitruvius]

Oh wow, the dynamic of the war changes considerably without the isolated nature of the Palatinate. On the other hand, do you think John George would turn against the Habsburgs without being forced to?

Sorry, didn't see this. John George is hard to pin down because he was exceptionally loyal to the Habsburgs for a protestant Prince. Of course some of that is the fact that as a Lutheran he was not a big fan of the Calvinists like Frederick or Bethlen or many of the Bohemian rebels. So I was thinking of a scenario of a widespread Habsburg collapse in Bohemia, Hungary and Upper and Lower Austria after the death of Ferdinand and Leopold and the loss of Vienna to the rebels. In that scenario the Habsburgs would be hard pressed to mount immediate resistance even in Austria and so it could encourage Bethlen and the more extreme protestants. Then that could be enough for John George to see himself as a bulwark against anarchy and widespread war, not to mention Calvinist expansion. So he accepts the Bohemian crown but then tries to cut the Bohemians off from contact with Bethlen and the rebellions in Hungary and Austria and of course he supports a Habsburg, probably Albert, as Emperor. So it wouldn't be as much of a betrayal of the Habsburgs if he's not stealing Bohemia from one of them and still votes for an Archduke to succeed Matthias as Emperor.

Like I said I'm not sure how likely it is. It could also be argued that John George would still decline. Then the Bohemians turn to their number two choice, Gabor Bethlen of Transylvania, and then he might accept (OTL he also declined) because with the Habsburgs in total disarray he might see it as the opportunity to claim Hungary and Bohemia. Then John George probably cuts the same deal with the Habsburgs as OTL (Lusatia in return for aiding them in ending the Bohemian revolt). At any rate I do think that you have to consider John George and Gabor Bethlen as just as likely if not more likely than Frederick to become King of Bohemia with this POD.

One other thought I want to toss out there. Perhaps if Spain gets ambitious they could see the collapse of the Austrian branch of the family to set up one of their own in the Empire? If Albert is elected Emperor perhaps Philip III considers naming his younger son Ferdinand as heir to the Netherlands with the goal of positioning him to be elected Emperor in turn? I think the Spanish would struggle to garner much support for such a move in Germany, and it would raise the ire of the French and the Dutch for that matter. But it would be interesting to think about the Infante Fernando as sovereign in the Netherlands in succession to Albert and with Alsace too.

 

[Old1812]

One other thought I want to toss out there. Perhaps if Spain gets ambitious they could see the collapse of the Austrian branch of the family to set up one of their own in the Empire? If Albert is elected Emperor perhaps Philip III considers naming his younger son Ferdinand as heir to the Netherlands with the goal of positioning him to be elected Emperor in turn? I think the Spanish would struggle to garner much support for such a move in Germany, and it would raise the ire of the French and the Dutch for that matter. But it would be interesting to think about the Infante Fernando as sovereign in the Netherlands in succession to Albert and with Alsace too.

Small thing, but would it be Carlos, as he's still alive here, or is he intended to be a spare for Philip?