Ferdinand I goes to Mohacs

So Bohemia has a perfectly viable, if female heir? Well, then I dont see the problem. Elizabeth can be betrothed to somebody... of course, I guess Anne could also remarry, and if she then gets a son hell be prior in succession to Elizabeth... (But not if she further only gives birth to daughters, in which case Elizabeth as oldets would remain heir)

But that is my doubt: did Bohemia ever had before a reigning female monarch? And, as the crown was an elective one, wouldn't the Bohemian Diet rather elect other noble instead of making her the Queen? And in the case that she is accepted as Queen, would she become the only female ever to be an Elector of the HRE?

I can see a possible husband be elected as king. Well, officially Ferdinand was elected by the Bohemians, the Hungarians and even the Croatians in different elections, and his position was conquered because he was married to her. But would a female really become Queen of Bohemia and/or Hungary in the early 16th century?
 

Susano

Banned
Oh, I didnt mean that. I did mean, in best Classic Salic fashion, that she is a heir in that succession will pass through her. Most likely indeed to her husband... that is, either Annes Husband or Elizabeths husband (or betrothed, even, under a regency).
 
The problem is that Sigismund II is only 06 years old while Anne was 23. She would need to wait maybe 10 years before he gets age to marry, and I think that after Mohacs she would need an almost imediate marriage to secure both protection and a male heir.

Interesting enough, she could even marry John Zapolya, who was available by 1526/27. He only married IOTL in 1539, and it was with Isabella Jagellion, a daughter of Sigismund I of Poland.

I think you misread what I wrote..Anne would have her choice of marriage partners, Jan Zamolya being the best option with an army intact on the scene and with most of the following of the Hungarian nobility. Her daughter Elisabeth would be betrothed to Sigismund II, Sigismund's heir in Poland itself. She could of course arrange a marriage to a German prince for herself who is in the camp of the Emperor Charles to at least maintain Bohemia for herself but she does then give up Hungary to Zamolya. Her marriage to Zamolya at least provides Zamolya with options other than becoming an essentially Ottoman vassal in opposition to the Hapsburgs. Charles is just initiating a new round of conflict with the French, there is not alot He can do to help without his allies in Germany doing much of his heavy lifting. Are the Saxons in or out of the Charles camp at this point.

Elisabeth of course could be betrothed to Phillip II, but again there is not a lot that Charles can immediately do to bolster Anne's claim to the whole thing.
 
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I think you misread what I wrote..
Sorry, I've read your post too fast. :eek:

Anne would have her choice of marriage partners, Jan Zamolya being the best option with an army intact on the scene and with most of the following of the Hungarian nobility. Her daughter Elisabeth would be betrothed to Sigismund II, Sigismund's heir in Poland itself. She could of course arrange a marriage to a German prince for herself who is in the camp of the Emperor Charles to at least maintain Bohemia for herself but she does then give up Hungary to Zamolya. Her marriage to Zamolya at least provides Zamolya with options other than becoming an essentially Ottoman vassal in opposition to the Hapsburgs. Charles is just initiating a new round of conflict with the French, there is not alot He can do to help without his allies in Germany doing much of his heavy lifting. Are the Saxons in or out of the Charles camp at this point.

I think the Saxons were already going against Charles by then. John the Steadfast would stablish Lutheranism as the official state religion in 1527, and not longer after that he would be the leader of the Protestants, so probably the conflict with the Emperor is already being made. However, I'm not sure how successful would Zapolya be against the Ottomans without the Austrian resources (and Imperial help). Maybe the whole Hungary is conquered ITTL?

Elisabeth of course could be betrothed to Phillip II, but again their is not a lot that Charles can immediately do to bolster Anne's claim to the whole thing.

Probably Philip II would still be married to Portuguese princess first, as IOTL. Only his fourth wife was a Habsburg IOTL, and there would be few political reasons to marry him to Elisabeth. A union with Sigismund II is really more likely.
 
Sorry, I've read your post too fast. :eek:



I think the Saxons were already going against Charles by then. John the Steadfast would stablish Lutheranism as the official state religion in 1527, and not longer after that he would be the leader of the Protestants, so probably the conflict with the Emperor is already being made. However, I'm not sure how successful would Zapolya be against the Ottomans without the Austrian resources (and Imperial help). Maybe the whole Hungary is conquered ITTL?



Probably Philip II would still be married to Portuguese princess first, as IOTL. Only his fourth wife was a Habsburg IOTL, and there would be few political reasons to marry him to Elisabeth. A union with Sigismund II is really more likely.

well that was my thought as well, Sigismund the Elder is really the key here and where he wants his foreign policy directed is key. There is the possibility of resurrecting Jagiellonian influence throughout central Europe once again as its likely that if Zamolya is to create a truly independent Hungarian kingdom, Polish aid will have to replace that of the Austrians, and a secure frontier with the HRE would be a necessary pre-requisite as well.

Sigismund though has his Muscovite wars even though there is a break at this point. How eternal is the eternal peace with the Ottomans. If Poland is to help it would mean reactivating a southward dimension to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth's expansion.. influence in Moldavia again perhaps letting them get out from under the Ottoman thumb, relations with the Crimean Tartars will be damned tricky in that case. With such diverse needs as fending off the Muscovites, and aiding the Zamolya in Hungary. Sigismund is going to need to reform the situation in the commonwealth if he can so he has more direct control. Personally I would like this to translate down the road into direct control of Jedysan by Poland and a protectorate over an independent Moldavia. Such an orientation will likely see the Livonians have to look elsewhere for effective aid against Ivan IV. Denmark or Sweden being the best options I expect, with a lesser role for P-L.

besides if Sigismund II marries Elisabeth, then the chances of only daughters as offspring are significantly reduced. The chances of the Polish - Swedish dynastic feud diminish as well, though its still possible that a daughter of the union might marry John of Sweden as part of an alliance to intervene in Livonia, his heirs may not be elected as successor to Poland itself if Elisabeth and Sigismund II have their own male heir.
 
well that was my thought as well, Sigismund the Elder is really the key here and where he wants his foreign policy directed is key. There is the possibility of resurrecting Jagiellonian influence throughout central Europe once again as its likely that if Zamolya is to create a truly independent Hungarian kingdom, Polish aid will have to replace that of the Austrians, and a secure frontier with the HRE would be a necessary pre-requisite as well.

Just an idea: as a grandson of king Albert of Bohemia and Hungary, Sigismund could still make a claim to these thrones. So an agreement is made with Anne and her Zapolya husband. He supports John Zapolya as king of Hungary, through his marriage to Anne, while Bohemia goes to Sigismund I. As Zapolya never claimed Bohemia IOTL (of course, he didn't have conditions to do so) maybe he would accept such terms.

It would be a wise option. Sigismund would have access to the rich Bohemia, and would have an Electoral vote in the HRE. With the Protestant rebellion coming, Charles V would like to have an important Catholic monarch to help him. Also, this independent Hungary would be a Polish vassal, depending on Polish help to fight the Ottomans, and Sigismund would have a buffer state between Poland and the Ottoman Empire. Although if Zapolya's forces can't stop the Ottomans they would be a serious threat to Poland. Maybe a siege of Krakow rather than one of Vienna?
 
I don't know enough about Bohemia to comment, but for Hungary, if Ferdinand dies, there is no reasonable alternative to Zapolya, who enjoyed greater support than Ferdinand, especially from the lower nobility. Even in OTL, Ferdinand's claim didn't really sway many people, particularly since Hungary had been fighting the Ottomans for 100 years with nothing but verbal support from the Hapsburgs.

If Zapolya had been able to consolidate his dynasty's rule over Hungary, this would be a massive change in history. This would probably lead to what I think the Ottomans should have done, which is maintain Hungary as a vassal buffer rather than expending so much energy in endless wars with the Hapsburgs. That could have led not only to a much healthier Ottoman Empire, but could have allowed Hapsburg domination of Germany, as they also wouldn't be beating their heads bloody against the Ottomans.
 
I don't know enough about Bohemia to comment, but for Hungary, if Ferdinand dies, there is no reasonable alternative to Zapolya, who enjoyed greater support than Ferdinand, especially from the lower nobility. Even in OTL, Ferdinand's claim didn't really sway many people, particularly since Hungary had been fighting the Ottomans for 100 years with nothing but verbal support from the Hapsburgs.

If Zapolya had been able to consolidate his dynasty's rule over Hungary, this would be a massive change in history. This would probably lead to what I think the Ottomans should have done, which is maintain Hungary as a vassal buffer rather than expending so much energy in endless wars with the Hapsburgs. That could have led not only to a much healthier Ottoman Empire, but could have allowed Hapsburg domination of Germany, as they also wouldn't be beating their heads bloody against the Ottomans.

But would the Ottomans give all conquered Hungary back to Zapolya in exchange for a vassal status? If they keep some territories into the Ottoman Empire, where would the border be?
 
But would the Ottomans give all conquered Hungary back to Zapolya in exchange for a vassal status? If they keep some territories into the Ottoman Empire, where would the border be?

All of Hungary was under Zapolya at first - it wasn't until 1541 (after Zapolya's death) that the Ottomans annexed a big chunk of Hungary. If Zapolya had not had the relatively vigorous opposition of Ferdinand, the Hungarian situation most likely would not have moved the Ottomans toward direct control.

Most likely the border would have been the Danube & Sava, perhaps with some Ottoman garrisons on the northern banks.
 
All of Hungary was under Zapolya at first - it wasn't until 1541 (after Zapolya's death) that the Ottomans annexed a big chunk of Hungary. If Zapolya had not had the relatively vigorous opposition of Ferdinand, the Hungarian situation most likely would not have moved the Ottomans toward direct control.

Most likely the border would have been the Danube & Sava, perhaps with some Ottoman garrisons on the northern banks.

That's interesting, Zapolya's Hungary as a buffer state, while the Ottomans have a more stable border.

However, I have doubts about the idea of the Habsburgs keeping their focus on the control of the HRE. With the death of Ferdinand the only left is Charles, who only had one male son, Philip II. If butterflies do not change that then I can see Philip (who was raised as Spanish after all) keeping his focus on Spain, where he is a king by right of birth, rather than dealing with the political mess of the HRE. Well, he can try to be both King and Emperor as his father, but I think he would be even less successful than IOTL he was with the Netherlands. Maybe Austria becomes Protestant ITTL?

Also, there is still a chance of conflict between the Habsburg and the Ottomans on the Mediterranean, if Spain decides to expand to North Africa.
 
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