August, 1864
Mexico
As both Grant and Lee moved slowly southward (Lee had received another shipment of supplies which Grant was languishing), both were confused why there had been so few direct encounters with French forces.
They did not realize that the French forces of 30,000 Europeans and Africans which had arrived years ago had been weakened greatly by combat (3000 casualties), disease (4500 casualties and many others weakened) and recalled to their respective masters in Europe (3000 Austrians and Africans). This didn't even count the British and Spanish which had abandoned the expedition as soon as they realized the scope of Napoleon III's ambitions.
At any point, the French only had 15,000 healthy European/African men and another 5000 on the sick list at any given point.
Worse, the huge numbers of arms supplied by the Americans to the Mexican partisans would vastly increase the effectiveness of the Mexican Patriot Partisans throughout the periphery of the country.
The defeat to Grant in Zacatecas had been catastrophic. Prior to this point, Napoleon III had assumed that the European mercenaries of the French Foreign legion, the Austrian "Volunteers", the Algerians, the Egyptians, the Sudanese, etc....would be more than adequate to control the country, especially given the fact that half the Mexican people were on their side, including the all-important clergy, nobility and the like. The only additional forces Napoleon III intended to send were the Belgium Legion, whose departure had been cancelled when it became clear that that the King of Belgium's daughter, Carlotta, would NOT be made Empress of Mexico.
Napoleon III had been loath to dispatch any more actual French Regiments. The tropics tended to eat European armies alive and the Emperor preferred to waste foreign lives than his own. Besides, he was already getting increasingly involved in South America and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Just as importantly, the on the document signing the current peace on the European continent had hardly dried and the Emperor knew that Austria and Britain were less than happy with him. Even Spain had been full of vitriol over Napoleon III's actions .
But the Emperor knew that the current state of affairs, in which Britain's resources were tied up in North America while her attention was riveted upon the Mediterranean. At the moment friendless, Britain's diplomats were probably working hard to seek alliances throughout Europe.
If France was to gain an advantage over the mighty British Empire, it had to move quickly in times like this.
Napoleon III would agree to provide 5000 French veterans to replace the Belgians he'd expected to dispatch. If Bazaine, one of the best of French Generals, could not defeat some Americans and barefooted Mexican insurgents, maybe the damned country wasn't worse claiming.
At least that is what Napoleon III thought quietly. In reality, he knew that the day he claimed the title of Emperor of Mexico for himself, he could not so easily withdraw without suffering international mockery. A defeat France could accept. Humiliation it could not.
Thus, Napoleon III then abridged his earlier note to replace the 3000 Austrians and Africans Bazaine had lost as well with French troops.
As it so happened, the matter might be made moot if Lee managed to seize Veracruz, the lifeline of all Mexican trade and communication. So vital was this that Bazaine elected NOT to defend San Luis Potosi with anything more than 6000 "Junta" troops with a few hundred French Legionaries.
Instead, Bazaine sent the bulk of his immediately available troops - 7000 French and 4000 Mexicans - to join the garrison of Veracruz and march north to meet Lee on the coast. The last thing Bazaine could accept is Veracruz being cut off (though he was sure the city would not fall given her strong walls, a siege would cut him off just as efficiently as Lee taking the city).
Bazaine was impressed by the feat accomplished by the Americans of simply getting their armies so deep into Mexico. In 1846, this had never been accomplished without control over Veracruz (American troops in the Mexican War had hopped from one port city to the next via the Caribbean). But surely, as Napoleon I learned in Russia, the supply line becomes untenable after a certain point.
Having been appointed "Viceroy", Bazaine himself dared not leave the fractious "allies" he had in Mexico City but the French General was convinced that this Lee could not match a French Army in a battle of maneuver.
Paris
The British Ambassador stormed out of his audience with the French Foreign Minister, outraged by the French Emperor's daring.
In hindsight, Britain should have more actively opposed Napoleon III when he declared himself Emperor. But the silver-tongued devil had talked his way out of a war.
It was now apparent that the French were attempting an omni-directional expansion of influence.
Worse, the French ironclad production was ramping up so much that, by 1865, France would have MORE ironclads than Britain. The Admiralty was already up in arms about this though there was some debate as to whether or not the French ships were truly a match for the Royal Navy.
But with Britain already at war with America (oddly in a form of co-belligerence with France) and Russia crushing the Ottoman under the Czar's booted heel without any semblance of European opposition, things were looking more dire by the moment.
The Ambassador had hoped to stave off this latest outrage of direct French intervention in a Uruguayan Civil War with a carefully veiled threat. This tactic failed under the scornful gaze of the French Foreign Minister.
Humiliated, the Ambassador was forced to write home and confess his failure.
Eastern Thrace
The Czar would announce that Eastern Thrace would become a Russian province. A mixture of Turks, Bulgarians, Greeks and Jews, the Czar announced the settlement of hundreds of thousands of Russian, Ukrainian, Ruthenian, Polish and Jewish "settlers" over the next few years.
The Turks of Eastern Thrace and, well, most of the Balkans would be ejected back into Asia from whence they came. In the meantime, the Armenians and Russians were evicting the Turks from Eastern Anatolia as well. The death toll was estimated to be in the hundreds of thousands would later historians would estimate 1-2,000,000 Turkish dead.
In response, the fractious Turkish government(s) would turn upon the Greek, Armenian, Georgian and Assyrian (as well as other minorities like Alevis, Kurds, Arabs or Shi'a) communities in Western Anatolia, killing tens of thousands. Later historians would estimate 250,000 dead at least. These minorities would be ejected to Greece, Greater Armenia, Trabizond and the Near East.
Russia would either make colonies of many of these Near Eastern possession or pronounce their independence (Assyria, Kurdistan, Mesopotamia).
Egypt was already seizing south Damascus and the Ottoman tribute states along the Red Sea.
In stunning fashion, the Ottoman had disintegrated within two years.
Washington
The Generals were unanimous: Lincoln had waited too long to invade the Maritimes. If the President had truly expected to march through 90 miles of forest from Maine to seize St. Johns, (much less Halifax), the expedition should have marched at least two months prior.
But winter came quickly this far north and marching in late August into the teeth of British defenses built into the dense forests of New Brunswick was folly.
Lincoln took responsibility for the potential mistake but he'd hoped to avoid further conflict. Plainly, the British were NOT going to launch another invasion of Quebec.
So why the was enemy still at war?
What was to be gained?
What Lincoln did NOT know was the chaos of the British government was making the war itself a side show in London.