alternatehistory.com

14 January 1858: The Emperor and Empress of the French are killed on the way to the theatre when a bomb thrown by the Italian radical Felipe Orsini explodes in their carriage.
The official heir to the imperial throne, Prince Napoleon (IV) is not yet two years old. The senior male of the Bonaparte family is 73 year old Jérôme-Napoléon Bonaparte, the youngest brother of Napoleon I., Prince of Montfort and former King of Westphalia, his heir is Prince Napoléon aka Plon-Plon.

What are the odds for
~ a smooth Bonapartist succession with the Montfort branch acting as regents until N4 comes of age?
~ some kind of coup/revolution culminating in a Republic?
~ the same, leading to a restored Bourbon monarchy, either Legitimist or Orleanist?

Don't forget, in 1858 the Empire of the French had won in the Crimean war and no big defeats anywhere, so it is far less unpopular than in 1870.
Top