Hopefully secstate is some one who dies before election.:openedeyewink:

Yeah, it will almost certainly be Charles Evans Hughes, who will most assuredly be alive. (Unless Salvador decides he dies, but honestly, after two reasonable deaths, throwing a third one in for lulz would be a rather silly move.)
 
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She's also a white supremacist and segregation supporter. Still, this does beat out the OTL's first third party woman VP candidate, Marie Caroline Brehm for the Prohibition Party in 1924.
Yes, opposing one sort of oppression and inequality does not automatically mean one opposes all others, too, unfortunately.
And so GOP have indeed nominated two men neither of whom lived until -24 OTL ... I hope they win.🤣
Harding might survive if he's Vice President rather than President, who knows?
If Knox dies on schedule--and there's no reason he shouldn't--then Harding will get enough of the Presidency to probably send him off at about the same time. At which point the Secretary of State becomes President #3 in the chain.
With no 25th amendment (yet) that is indeed what would happen. This TL could feature a President Charles Hughes, or any number of alternatives!

I do not want to get off Salvador's wild ride.
Yeah, it will almost certainly be Charles Evans Hughes, who will most assuredly be alive. (Unless Salvador decides he dies, but honestly, after two reasonable deaths, throwing a third one in for lulz would be a rather silly move.)
I am glad you like it :) and I certainly won't spoil the fun of the ride. I will only say this much: Charles Evan Hughes will live out his OTL lifespan into the 1940s. In which function, though, remains to be seen :)
 
Ninety-Three: US Election 1920 – part 2: Results
Tokyo (Japanese Empire): Asahi Shimbun, November 7th, 1920, p. 4:

RESULTS OF THE ELECTIONS – OPPORTUNITIES AND DANGERS FOR JAPANESE-AMERICAN FRIENDSHIP

by Sidney L. Gulick [1]

The men – and for the first time, the women, too – of the United States of America have voted for a new President, a new House of Representatives (as the Lower House of Parliament is called) and many new Governors of individual states. This newspaper has reported broadly about the results in yesterday’s issue already. [2] Today, I would like to offer my comment on what these results could mean for the friendship between our two great nations.

Newspapers in this country have reported a victory of conservative challengers over more liberal incumbents. This British-inspired dichotomy is too simplistic for the description of U.S. politics. Just because the elected heads of governments in Tokyo and Washington are both frequently labelled as “liberal conservatives” or “moderate progressives” {3] does not mean that they would pursue similar agendas, be faced with similar challenges, view them similarly, or, what is more, be more likely than others to co-operate internationally in the interest of mutual prosperity, peace, and friendship.

To understand the American political system properly, one must realize that the U.S. are a much more heterogeneous country than Nippon’s Home Islands. Its citizenry is much more divided along lines of race, descent, and religious confession. Preferences and prejudices cut across both major parties, but they inform the agenda of individual men of the state at least as much as general views on the political constitution or the economic system. Acting President Thomas Marshall and his Secretary of State Robert Lansing are in the same party as the defeated candidate William Gibbs McAdoo – but while the former two have strengthened the ties of co-operation between the U.S.A. and the Japanese Empire and mutual respect, the latter has repeatedly criticised these very same treaties and promised to his voters that he would not have felt bound by the agreements made by the old administration, attempting to appeal to sentiments of racial superiority among these voters.

So, is Mr Knox’s victory a fortunate outcome for Japanese-American friendship? It might be – for as a secretary of state, he has strongly advocated increased international economic co-operation and exchange, and so has his shadow Secretary of State, Mr Elihu Root {4], whom previous Japanese diplomats certainly remember as a diligent man and whose engagement for peaceful and ordered relations among nations has rightly earned him the Nobel Prize for Peace.

But it might as well not be – for Knox is a close friend of his party colleague and rival candidate for the Republican nomination, Mr Hiram Johnson, who is using the vilest racial prejudices against Americans of Japanese and generally Asian descent in his populist campaigns for a limitation of immigration from Asian countries to the U.S. Mr Johnson and his successor as Governor of California, Mr William Stephens, have depicted Japan as a dangerous enemy of America. It is only to be hoped that their voices will not find too much influence with the new president. The same goes for many of the President’s party colleagues in Congress, who are bent on restricting imports to the U.S. through increased and allegedly “scientific” tariffs.

Beyond mere hope, it is time for citizens of both our countries who are seeing the benefits of mutual friendship and understanding between nations to organize themselves better and make our voices heard in high places. We, our children and all the generations to come [5] only stand to gain from pacific relations across the ocean which, in my language, bears that very same name, from co-operation and respect, and from broadening our horizons by learning about one another’s rich cultural heritages. Amicable relations should not depend entirely on isolated individuals, and their wonderful initiatives should be carried on as traditions – so that in the future, too, educators and students, workers and cherry trees and much more shall travel across the ocean that connects us, ever streghtening the ties between our two peoples.



[1] Gulick was a lifelong supporter of Japanese-American friendship and general friendship among nations IOTL, too. He has spent years in Japan, teaching at various universities. ITTL, he is just about to return from a large tour of Asia which he never undertook IOTL, ITTL inspired by curiosity about the recent federalist model for the co-existence and co-operation of nations in one democratic polity that is the UoE, and his last stop before returning to America is his old favourite country, Japan.

I don’t know if it is plausible to have him write a contribution for one of the leading liberal newspapers in Japan, but he was certainly someone who had a perspective and knowledge on US politics and could explain it to a Japanese readership. Gulick was a suggestion by @LuckyLuciano given my lack of confidence with regards to faking a newspaper article written by a Japanese without great Western influence. Due to my insecurity here, and because Japanese readers might indeed care for other topics more at the time, I put the article on page four only.

[2] Well, THIS author has not yet reported about them. But @LuckyLuciano is going to post a Wikibox about the Presidential election outcome soon, which is going to increase the graphic sophisticatedness of this thread all of a sudden by quite a lot, accompanied by a few thoughts on how that outcome came about. After that, I’ll come back with a few more details on the House elections in my old poor Excel style.

[3] The May 1920 Japanese general elections went comparatively similar as IOTL, even though butterflies have arrived in Japan in swarms by now. Here is a very short and rough sketch: Because the UoE remains a part of the Entente, there is no Japanese Siberian Intervention. This has a lot of implications – it will mean different experiences of many military men down the road. Immediately, it meant less dramatic rice riots of 1918. They will occur – food prices are inevitably rising due to the increased population, and wartime requisitioning is always a source of controversies. But without having to feed the Siberian army, there are significantly less requisitonings and the situation does not escalate quite that much. As a consequence, Prime Minister Terauchi Masatake does not step down in September 1918 because of the rice riots.

This does not change very much, though, for Terauchi is still going to resign a few months later for health reasons (he dies in 1919 like IOTL), and Japan sends the same people from the same government to the Paris Peace Conference. The éclat of the Western powers refusing Japan’s demand for a “racial equality clause” does not occur ITTL: The Gorky-Thomas-Addams plan has such a clause, more universally phrased, even though it is not adopted. American and British counter-proposals for a League of Nation do not, but they, too, never leave the stage of drafts and proposals, so they don’t incite as much Japanese anger.

Still, Paris means trouble for the Japanese government, and for the government of the same moderately conservative, common-born Prime Minister Hara Takashi, the first Christian in this office, because of the popular reaction in China when Duan Qirui’s deals with Japanese governments concerning Shandong, the Nishihara Loans and all that are unveiled, like IOTL. Another source of OTL-identical trouble is Korea, where rebels have begun their fight for independence and are being suppressed by the Imperial Japanese Army. Domestically, Hara is neither popular with the military leadership, in whose eyes he is by far not nationalist and aggressive enough, nor with the liberal and socialist opposition who demand universal male suffrage now, instead of the meagre extension of the franchise to slightly less wealthy groups than before which is implemented with the 1920 elections IOTL like ITTL.

Still, this electoral system guarantees the victory of the more conservative Rikken Seiyukai in those elections, even though elite discontent with Hara is probably slightly greater than IOTL due to the earlier fall of Duan Qirui’s pro-Japanese government in China. But even if Kenseikai and Rikken Kokuminto can occupy a few more seats, Seiyukai victory is almost inevitable in 1920. Hara is, thus, not challenged by the parliament (which does not have a constitutional right to depose him anyway, but whose opinion would certainly still be taken into account).

In the US, on the other hand, the Republican ticket Knox / Harding has achieved a landslide victory. More, including numbers, soon from @LuckyLuciano.

[4] While Charles Evan Hughes would always be a good and logical choice for the position, Knox had a very good relation with his successor as Secretary of State Root. As a Noble Peace Prize laureate, Root is a presentable choice as well, of course, and not being the youngest person himself, Knox is also not prejudiced against Root for being rather old. Root has actively militated for an international covenant of peace IOTL and ITTL, but since that idea is not polarising the US public like it did IOTL, this is also no argument against his getting the job. Also, to quote @LuckyLuciano once again: "Elihu Root is more reliably conservative and amicable to machine politics, the same that elevated Knox to the presidency, than other candidates for the office (such as Hughes)."

[5] IOTL he would later emphasize the role of children as those who knit friendship between nations.
 
US Presidential Election 1920 Map of Results
headcannon-feeble-constitution-v2-jpg.582909

Here's the election results! Note McAdoo picking up Tennessee due to increased Southern support. Also an increased performance for socialists, due to a combination of Catholics and other minorities offended by McAdoo's tacit endorsement of the Klan and Knox's previous opposition to woman's suffrage turning off the new voters. The result is the highest popular vote total for a socialist candidate so far but less than the 1912 percentage.
 
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So we are getting President Martin Free... Elihu Root? Huh.
Maybe ;)

Here's the election results! Note McAdoo picking up Tennessee due to increased Southern support. Also an increased performance for socialists, due to a combination of Catholics and other minorities offended by McAdoo's tacit endorsement of the Klan and Knox's previous opposition to woman's suffrage turning off the new voters. The result is the highest popular vote total for a socialist candidate so far but less than the 1912 percentage.
Thanks once again for the awesome Wikibox! I wish I could do that, too...
 
Also an increased performance for socialists, due to a combination of Catholics and other minorities offended by McAdoo's tacit endorsement of the Klan and Knox's previous opposition to woman's suffrage turning off the new voters.
Why does this feel like another where the political establishment still operates under old rules and prejudices, even as the world changes around them?
Plus even in opposition, the IRSDLP could use American politics as a way to none-too-subtly criticize everyone to the right of Trotsky. Or more specifically, the politics of those who hate, oppose or fear the urban proletariat. Admittedly, any more details would expose Trotsky’s stance towards the unions as pretty hypocritical.
 
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You know the difference between the Confederacy and the states that voted McAdoo? Kentucky.
Much like IOTL, where Cox even lost Tennessee, popular opinion turned away from the Democrats in 1920 hard. The reasons for this have been amply discussed elsewhere - the absence of League of Nations quarrels doesn't make all that much of a difference, I'd think, for TTL to have a different electoral mood. The Democrats are thrown back on their strongholds, which at the time unquestionably were in the South. There are undoubtedly voices in the Democratic party who are highly and vocally critical of this course which they see as threatening the Democrats' chances of being a broadly electable party with solid electoral support among Northern and Western voter groups, too - we have read Charles Murphy's views on the matter, for example.

This kind of outcome - and the congressional one which we'll post later - has two diametrically opposed effects:
On the one hand, it is a great argument for Northern "liberals" (for want of a better term) that the "McAdoo strategy" has clearly failed. (And McAdoo himself is highly unlikely to run ever again.)
On the other hand, being thrown back upon the South also means that these strongholds are the places with most power within the party, too.
 
Why does this feel like another where the political establishment still operates under old rules and prejudices, even as the world changes around them?
I'm sorry if it came across as implausible or a tired cliché...? I've been afraid that the opposite - the IRSDLP and SR-aligned parties marching from triumph to triumph across the globe - would be both implausible and somewhat boring. Beside cultural issues, which are indeed important to many voters, too, there are reasons specific to this TL why Trotskyite social democracy is not an ideal fit for the US political system (also, see below). The entire debate between ultra-imperialists and militants, which is so important to Hungarians, French, Russians etc., is really quite insubstantial for a left-leaning American. It is all phrased in universalist Marxist terminology, but in Europe it practically boils down to "Use and subvert the EFP - or fight it tooth-and-nail?" That is a relevant practical question. In some colonies, it might also take on the aspect of: "Appeal to the charter of the EFP - or tear the whole Eurocentric document apart?" There is some practical relevance in this, too. In the US, that debate with which the party busies itself, and in whose terms it also attempts to answer questions of political organisation, strategy, activism etc., might appear utterly insignificant. A European squabble really.

Plus even in opposition, the IRSDLP could use American politics as a way to none-too-subtly criticize everyone to the right of Trotsky. Or more specifically, the politics of those who hate, oppose or fear the urban proletariat. Admittedly, any more details would expose Trotsky’s stance towards the unions as pretty hypocritical.
I have tried to describe how in 1919, the formation of a US section of the IRSDLP was aborted by the radical-leaning new party leadership under Patrick Quinlan indicating their intention to join the IRSDLP as a whole, and then abandoning it over differences with Trotsky. By 1920, there is a tiny US section of the IRSDLP, in addition to the SPA and other leftist parties and groups, but it is insignificant.

Why?
For internal and external reasons.
Among the internal reasons, the most dominant is that ITTL, Quinlan's Socialist Party is indeed adopting a defiant and militant stance, encouraging (both union- and strike-related and ethnic / anti-progrom) self-defense groups (Red guards if you like), providing legal and media support for militant strikers, organising marches for the release of political prisoners, and generally not trying to avoid the Palmer Raids by appearing moderate and harmless, instead upholding the idea (and practice!) of the "councilisation" of the American proletariat. They're in fact acting in a rather similar fashion as their syndicalist competitors in the IWW, only adding electoral politics to the mix. There is not much space to the Left of this. In terms of theory, yes (but see the above comments on ultra-imperialist theory), but not in terms of great numbers and public presence.
Another way to look at this is to acknowledge how instrumental the "language associations" of the minorities were in the formation of the Communist Party of America; ITTL they have triumphed by influencing the entire party, so a great segment of early Communist membership of OTL (which was not necessarily universally very very radical in their economic or political views) remains within the SPA ITTL.

An external reason for the weakness of the US section of the IRSDLP (so weak that I don't even mention them in the electoral updates) is that 1920 was not a great year for the IRSDLP in its Russian core land, either: some leaders and local sections of social democratic trade unions have fallen out with the Party leadership and as a result, the grip of the IRSDLP on the soviets is slipping away progressively. At the same time, the Hungarian experiment is not looking very impressive at all so far, and new trouble has arisen at its borders, with Serbia becoming a more serious threat, forcing adaptations and realignments in Hungary's party leadership, too (more on that in later separate updates). I wouldn't count the IRSDLP out, and both the attractiveness of Marxist theory and socialist confidence that the future is theirs are unbroken. The latter takes many different forms, though, and the former needs some fresh philosophical impulses. Luckily, I am sure that the 1920s will provide those, too ;)
 
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US House of Representatives elections Wikibox and Map of Results
@LuckyLuciano has created another awesome Wikibox, which I'm posting straight away:
here are the results of the elections to the House of Representatives!
1920-congressional-elections-wo-map-png.583529


And here is a map of the results (dark red are Republican gains, light red Republican holds; dark blue Democrat gains, light blue Democrat holds, purple are Socialist gains and holds, light green is the Farmer-Labour gain:
feebleconstitutionhou41jvz.png

(I have no idea why the background is black.. it wasn't supposed to be, sorry for that.)

Here is the explication - the big picture first, which is reflected in the popular vote:
Mostly, this is the same disaster that afflicted the Democrats in 1920 IOTL, too.
What is slightly worse than IOTL is that the Democrats are also hemorrhaging some of their Italian, Irish and other minority urban workers' voters to the Socialist Party (and in one case also to a Farmer-Labour candidate, J.A. O`Leary in the heart of New York City where there is no farm in sight). In a number of cases, this means that the Republicans can gain additional seats without increasing their popular vote in comparison to OTL. In two other cases, it strengthens the Socialists who do not come out quite as weak as IOTL.

Here are the individual states which - after discussions with @LuckyLuciano - I have altered in comparison to OTL:
  • Tennessee 4 and 8, which IOTL were some of the narrowest Republican gains, are affected by the "McAdoo effect" from the Presidentials which is beneficial to the Democrats here, and thus the Democratic incumbent in Tennesse 4, Cordell Hull (who IOTL would go on to become FDR's Secretary of State), can prevent the Republican candidate Wynne F. Clouse, from replacing him; likewise in Tennesssee 8, the Democrat Gordon Browning (IOTL later Governor of Tennessee) succeeds his party colleague Thetus Sims, instead of Republican Lon A. Scott.
  • Illinois 4 and 5, which IOTL were held by the Democrats, are gained by Republicans ITTL because of Italian and Eastern European voter migration from the Democrats to the Socialists. John Rainey and Adolph Sabath (the later an important opponent of prohibition and vocal critical of the KKK) thus lose their seats to John Golombiewski and Jacob Gartenstein.
  • Across the state of New York, (mostly) Irish and Italian American voter migration to the Socialists cause the Democrats to lose four seats in comparison to OTL. In New York 2 (Queens), this means Republican candidate Rudolph Hantusch's 45 % suffice to gain a narrow upper hand over the Democrat John J. Kindred. In New York 11 (Lower Manhattan), the Republican Wilbur Wakeman wins against the Democrat Daniel Riordan. As mentioned above, in New York 18, J. A. O'Leary is the only Farmer-Labour candidate to win a seat, instead of incumbent John F. Carew (D). In New York 42, on the other edge of the state with the town of Buffalo in it, James M. Mead (D) loses his seat to his Republican challenger C. Hamilton Cook.
  • In New York 20, the Socialist candidate Morris Hillquilt very narrowly wins over the Republican incumbent Isaac Siegel. (This one is probably the most questionable change, as the margin was fairly wide, and a generally more militant Socialist Party would be even less likely to garner an outright majority. Still, I was thinking maybe a more energetic electoral campaign and Italian and Irish voter migrations in this district North of East Harlem might just push the balance enough for this one to become true, too.)
  • Likewise, in Wisconsin 5 Victor Berger (another prison inmate) holds his (illegal and thus not acknowledged) seat instead of losing it to the Republican candidate William H. Stafford. Even if Berger's voters must be exasperated by now by their representative never being able to take his seat for them in the House, a fresh infusion of Milwaukee's Italian voters is probably enough for him to win.
In the big picture, not much changed from OTL. Philander Knox can work with a strong Republican majority in the House, just like Harding IOTL.
For a few individuals, this means changes whose effects I cannot judge yet. (Btw, I did not change any of the candidates as comapred to OTL - which is butterfly massacre, since different people than IOTL might have gotten killed in the Great War or by the Spanish flu or whatever, but since I didn't have any idea as to who might run for some Democratic or Republican candidacy in an electoral district of 1920, I simply kept it all unchanged out of laziness.)
For the Socialist Party, Victor Berger would be its leader if he weren't in prison. Well, as far as a party of 3 needs a leader...
Either way, the three elected Socialist representatives are all very much on the moderate end of things within their party. How the radical leadership around Quinlan gets along with them is an open question.
 
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I've found too little time this week to finish the update which I have up my sleeve - will try to post it on Monday or Tuesday. It's going to be about refugees and displaced persons.
 
Ninety-Four: Refugees and Serbian Unitarism (1920)
Berlin (Self-Governed Province of Brandenburg): Vorwärts, December 16th, 1920, p. 1:

EBERT FIRST TO FIND CLEAR WORDS FOR SERBIAN ATROCITIES

by Friedrich Stampfer [1]

To-day one year ago, Friedrich Ebert has been appointed as Federal High Commissioner for Refugees by the E.F.P.’s General Secretary, Aristide Briand. [2] Since then, comrade Ebert has overseen an admirably fast co-ordination of prior refugee relief administrations of various member states and their massive expansion under the new common administration. On this year’s Christmas Eve, the first refugees – from Königsberg [3] to Adana [4] – will be able to celebrate in warm, clean, and dry buildings instead of tents [5], and all of them can enjoy a good warm meal instead of fearing the spectre of starvation. Tens of thousands of orphans have received schooling in accordance with the new E.O.E.C.W. Charter, and instead of epidemics killing at will, there are doctors of the E.H.O. [6] looking after them.

Comrade Ebert’s institution is, if not the only one of the E.F.P.’s institutions created in Chantilly which works, then certainly the one which works most impressively. It has defined its mission quite clearly as one of immediate relief, and it acts vigorously upon it. Instead of lengthy negotiations with the immature institutions of the National Associations and the Cantonal Administrations, it has freed up direct money and support from the Western Yugoslavian Mandate. In exchange, it has abstained as unambiguously from helping where others are getting along well already, refusing any demands for the allocation of funds by Belgium’s, France’s, Poland’s, Greece’s, Ukraine’s and Russia’s governments for their own return programmes, directing them diplomatically towards the European Recovery Fund.

Now, as our continent faces another horror the likes of which we had thought overcome in the new era of peace, the Victorious Powers and the statesmen they have appointed to preside over the institutions of their covenant are either shamelessly silent, or half-hearted and pussy-footed – all of them, except for Friedrich Ebert and the helpless High Commissioner Jules Destrée {7]. Destrée, whose commission is self-blocked by Serbian vetoes, has repeatedly called on the other mandate powers to step up their presence and uphold the Statute. The EFP may be a toothless tiger without the engagement of its largest members, but over the past months, this tiger has not even roared. General Secretary Briand holds eloquent speeches on democratic principles and virtues, but looks the other way when the Unitarist dictatorship tramples these principles and virtues in the Kingdom of Serbia and the Western Yugoslav territories it occupies [8]. The Hague apparatus has not been tasked with apprehending and indicting Serbian officers and Chetniks responsible for the murder of innocent women and children under the eyes of a petrified continent. Nobody is even considering sending an intervention army to stop the horrors in Belgrade and Osijek, Goražde and Ohrid. [9]

Our upright comrade and honourable High Commissioner for Refugees, though, has found the necessary clarity: “Murder, rape, starvation, mutilation - this human catastrophe has only one culprit: Serbia’s military dictatorship. If it cannot be stopped, not only the poor wretched inhabitants of the Balkans, but our entire continent and its agreements on peace, liberty and co-operation for progress and prosperity will become its victims. The order of peace must hold, and the promises of Paris must not become dead letters. Our continued engagement in Western Yugoslavia is of vital importance to hundreds of thousands, but it only remains possible if the nations of the covenant honour their promises of protecting the free peoples of the Balkans from murderous aggression.” Not a single word needs to be added to this. To let chauvinism and violent oppression of the population triumph in one place means to let it triumph everywhere. It is the responsibility of the continental democracies with the necessary means at hand to prevent it from advancing another single step. Can it be true that a German social democrat has to remind them of this lesson? Comrades, let us help his voice be heard, and join in the marches this weekend to protest against the murdering of our Yugoslavic brethren and the war-mongering of the Serbian chauvinistic tyranny!




[1] An OTL supporter of Ebert’s policies who is, like IOTL, editor-in-chief of the SPD’s party newspaper.

[2] With Germany and Prussia both lacking central governments, Friedrich Ebert has not found his place in the new post-imperial German political landscape. Luxemburg’s council regime in the second half of 1919 looking for him as a “war criminal” because he had voted in favour of the war loans did not help, either. And so, Ebert gladly accepted when Briand extended a hand towards him, in a gesture aimed at reconciling Germans with the EFP and indicating the possibility of Germans participating in it.

[3] In Königsberg in the Self-Governed Province of East Prussia, almost a third of the approximately 60,000 Germans who have fled Latvia and Estonia are sheltered – some seeking to find a new home here, in relative proximity to the regions where they came from; but for most, this was planned as a merely provisional solution until a German, or at least Prussian, government could organise their allotment. Since no such government exists anymore, the provisional stopgap has become more permanent than planed.

[4] Adana is not only the capital of the "Provisional Government of the Free State of Cilicia" and the "Great Assembly of Cilicia", but also hosts a sizable French military presence. Since the former are, as the French high commissioner Louis Franchet d`Espèrey puts it "mere squabbling messes", the French can (unfortunately! but it cannot be helped!) not leave the protectorate, ehm, free state to its own devices (just yet! ...). Here, thus, where the French are running the show, large camps of Armenian, Assyrian, and Greek refugees, some of whom have been on the move for half a decade now, have coalesced.
(Btw, Franchet d'Espèrey taking the place of OTL's French imperial face to the locals, Henri Gouraud, reacts to a suggestion by @Falecius.)

[5] Ebert is interested in the “Atterbury System” (called after a US architect who built the first settlement area out of prefabricated concrete slabs (in Queens), and so his institution has begun experimenting with this possibility of erecting cheap new buildings very fast.

[6] EOECW is the European Organization for Education and Children’s Welfare, while EHO is the European Health Organization, two more institutions of the EFP we have already talked about in Update 52 and which by now have begun working seriously.

[7] If you remember, the Belgian socialist Jules Destrée got to implement his “personal statehood” concept as chairman of the EFP Mandate Commission for Western Yugoslavia.

[8] Time to spell out what happened in Serbia, and what on Earth “Unitarism” is!

So... there has been a coup d´état in Serbia in the spring of 1920, in which not only the elected Prime Minister Nikola Pašić is shot and replaced by his scheming and reckless party colleague Puniša Račić, but also a group of anti-EFP military leaders around the old general Stepa Stepanović and radically nationalist Chetniks led by Kosta Pećanac have taken control of all key institutions, dissolved parliament, outlawed the IRSDLP and the Independent Radical Party, shut down their newspapers and begun dragging political opponents from their homes and shooting them without trial, all with the consent of Prince Regent (soon to be king) Alexander.

“Unitarism”, the new ideology to which many of the conspirators subscribe to some degree, is the brainchild of Jovan Hadži-Vasiljević, leader of the ultra-nationalist Society of Saint Sava, and Jovan Dučić, the poet and leader of the equally ultra-nationalist Narodna Odbrana. “Unitarism” or “Unificationism” - its Serbian name is “Ujedinjenizam” – plays on the double message of a) irredentistically “uniting” the Serbs in the Kingdom of Montenegro, the Vojvodina Plebiscite Zone, and the Western Yugoslavian Mandate into one state, i.e. into the current Kingdom and b) overcoming the internal differences in this state and sharing one will, one opinion, one culture. This culture is understood as Orthodox Christian – and indeed important figures in the church support the new regime – and purely Serbian, united behind its heroic monarchs in its perennial frontier fight against the heathen enemies of Christianity, which today are not only Muslim “Turks” (by which Bosnians and Albanians are also meant), but also secularists of liberal-radical or socialist persuasion, who have only sowed discord among the Serbs and thus brought about its weakening. (Well, in fact Serbia has never been as large and powerful as it was in 1919 since the 14th century, but you know...) As you can probably tell, this ideology owes deeply to Integralist nationalism. @The Ghost of Danton has asked in post #970 already about the emergence of a new post-war “chauvinistic ideology” of the far right... well, here it is. The idea of having it take place in Serbia came to me when @lukedalton reasoned in post #804 that “Mutilated Victory” would be a Serbian coinage ITTL. (“Unakažena pobeda”?)

Račić, as the new “marshall” in this dictatorial Serbia, has remobilised the army and marched a good part of it into Western Yugoslavia, where it ensures that nobody stops extremist Chetniks from inflicting a similar kind of terror to that which is already haunting Serbia onto the heterogenous population of the Serbian-controlled parts of Western Yugoslavia. The “Goražde Bulge” was the first intrusion of Serbian forces into a Western Yugoslav canton which was supposed to be controlled by another power: the UoE, who had but a few dozen soldiers around who quietly surrendered and were left to leave – Kerensky was foaming at the mouth after this incident, but with Volsky excluding any major new military commitment on the Balkans, things were left at political protest and unilateral trade sanctions, which did not impress the Serbs much, so new offensives are prepared.

This “victory” was celebrated e.g. by the new regime’s most prolific journalistic supporter, Krsta Cicvarić of the yellow paper Beogradski dnevnik owned by pro-Unitarist press tycoon Dušan Paranos (at least he is now a tycoon ITTL), who derided “Russia’s” Socialist-Revolutionary political leaders in the most obscene language, consistent with Dučić’s view that the Revolutionaries and Socialists have weakened Russia by allowing it to fall apart and alienating it from its Orthodox Christian character and natural monarchic form of government, so that Serbia must now pick up the orphaned banner of Panslavism.

The atrocities mentioned here and in the following are directed mostly against Catholic Croats, Muslim Bosnians, socialists, supporters of the old parliament-backed government like Ljubomir Davidović, Hungarians, and Macedonians (“Southern Serbs”) who stubbornly refuse to denounce a “Bulgarian” identity and accept a Serb one.

While the system bears many parallels to various fascist regimes of OTL, one important particularity stands out: there is no unifying, all-encompassing and all-controlling state party here, and no cultically venerated leader yet. I believe that these elements, while certainly also connectable to older absolutist reminiscences, were to some extent also inspired by the victorious Bolshevik Revolution in Russia, which had turned the Soviet regime into a one-party state where Lenin (and later Stalin even more) enjoyed an almost divine status. Now, I have learned my Frankfurt School Sociology well at uni, and I do believe that the “Authoritarian Personality” tends to look to a strong male leader, but would that always mean one leader for the entire system? Serbia, at the moment, is experimenting with the King, the Marshall, and various generals and Chetnik leaders as such “Führer”. Its aggressively expansionist militancy is also a clear divergence from the Integralism of a Maurras, owing to the geopolitical situation in which little Serbia finds itself.

Thus, in spite of its name, the new Serbian regime still has various heterogeneous pillars of power, and potential rivalries between them are a predictable breaking line of the system. Likewise, there is of course still opposition: while socialist and liberal radical leaders might be killed, their underlying movements undoubtedly prepare underground resistance. Even in the military, there are clear rifts which can be traced back to preceding decades: right now, remnants of the Black Hand network (which had suffered its decapitation in 1917) have gained the upper hand, but their formerly powerful White Hand opponents cannot be entirely removed and eradicated (just like the other way round), so the army certainly isn’t a monolithic factor, either. But, so far, the new regime has pocketed a few easy triumphs, and the opposition is condemned to lie low or operate from a Bulgarian, Hungarian, or Romanian exile.

[9] While Belgrade as the capital is an evident place where violence against the opponents of the new regime takes place, Osijek sees not only Croats, but primarily IRSDLP members and affiliated general-striking unionised workers (which of course sometimes overlap with being ‘Croats’, too) targeted; Goražde has a Muslim majority which is massacred or convinced to flee, and in Ohrid, pro-Unitarist mayor Temko Popov is organising violence against recalcitrant “Bulgarians”.



Alas, this has turned out more into an introduction of Serbian alt-fascism than an update on refugees - so... which refugees have not been mentioned?

There was only a very brief mention of refugees who are able to return home but need help in rebuilding it – that is most certainly the case within France and Belgium, Italy, the Baltic FRs, parts of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine.

Then, there are other refugees whose displacement looks more permanent at the moment. That is probably the case of the Greek and Armenian refugees who did not come from areas which the Peace Treaty with the Ottoman Empire has assigned to Greece, the Armenian Federative Republic of the UoE, or French-controlled Cilicia, and also of Turks who have fled from territories now controlled by Greece (not so much in Thrace, where an international force is keeping peace for the moment, but along the Ionian and Pontic coasts) and Armenia. The fate of the Baltic Germans looks similar.

Compared to OTL, though, especially the lower number of displaced Greeks (including virtually no Greeks leaving the UoE as opposed to hundreds of thousands leaving the Soviet Union IOTL) makes for a lower total of this group.

And then there are refugees with which we’re accustomed from OTL’s post-WW1 era but who do not appear at all, or at least only marginal when comapred to OTL: Expelled or fled anti-Bolshevik Russians, Ukrainians etc. Even though Tsar Nikolai II. and his family, who by now have continued their journey and relocated from North America to Britain, are certainly not the only Russians in political exile – some opponents of the Revolutionary regime who have fled the VeCheKist suppression, some collaborators with the Markov regime fleeing from retribution will have joined them dispersed across various countries –, the face of the “immigrants from Russia” in developed Western countries ITTL is not going to be a White Russian political circle, nor the stereotypical “Russian countess”, but that of migrant workers seeking a better life in North America or elsewhere. On the other side of the spectrum, although that was a smaller number IOTL, there are no communists fleeing Hungary after the fall of the soviet regime there, and ending up everywhere from the United States (like he or he) over Germany to, of course, the Soviet Union.

@Nuka1 has asked about Anatolia, and while some aspects of Anatolian developments have been touched upon by this update, others have not. I’ll have to address in a separate authorial update (next week?) the questions of
  • Greece in 1920 and its definite borders in Anatolia
  • Italy in Anatolia
  • the collapse of the Turkish nationalist struggle, the fate of its leaders, and its legacy
  • the Ottoman government
  • and the status and dilemmas of the International Administration of the Straits.
I have a plan for an in-universe update on Anatolian matters, but it’s further down the line in the 1920s, so these questions need to be answered now more directly.

Kurdistan is missing from the list, but in my narrative plans I want to include it in a different in-universe update in which I’m planning to look at various local events and developments in Persia, Kurdistan, Central Asia, Arabia etc. from a specific angle. (One which does have a relation to Ottoman issues, but more as a consequence of what happened to it, not exactly a part of its partition.)
 
Unitarism seems a lot like nationalistic Fascism to me, am I off the mark?

[5] Ebert is interested in the “Atterbury System” (called after a US architect who built the first settlement area out of prefabricated concrete slabs (in Queens), and so his institution has begun experimenting with this possibility of erecting cheap new buildings very fast.
Interesting, I wound if pre-fab building engineering will be more advanced than OTL thanks to how the refugee crisis is being handled?
 
Unitarism seems a lot like nationalistic Fascism to me, am I off the mark?
Not at all, that is very much it. Only without either an overwhelming state party or syndicalist-clad corporatism so far.

I
nteresting, I wound if pre-fab building engineering will be more advanced than OTL thanks to how the refugee crisis is being handled?
Early in the 1920s immediately, yes, somewhat.
As the decade goes on, it really depends on
a) how architectural thinkers like Le Corbusier in Paris and what IOTL named itself the Bauhaus etc. are developing and to what extent they draw on this technology to put it into the limelight
b) how the big state-financed housing programmes which we saw IOTL are turning out ITTL.

IOTL, 1920s housing programmes remained pretty untouched by the technology, and it probably took the devastations of WW2 AND the prestige which modernist architects had gained by that time for pre-fabricated concrete slab architecture to fully break through (in all its... well, aesthetic and social ambivalence) post-WW2.

Much of the technology was already there IOTL, but it was not widely used.
If its being used in the context of refugee sheltering is going to help in this wider context, though, is a different question!
 
Of course it is Balkans. When is it not.😒
No mention of Ireland?🤔 But then it is outside of EFP:s turf.
 
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Of course it is Balkans. When it is not.😒
It wasn't IOTL around the same time ;/ though of course throughout the 1910s, and in WW2, and in the 1990s...
No mention of Ireland?🤔 But then it is outside of EFP:s turf.
There is an Irish exodus due to the ongoing warfare (more in a special Update), but towards many places which can absorb them comparatively easily. (Given the riots in the US, other English-speaking countries get a greater share: Canada, Australia, NZ and South Africa...
 
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