Fedayeen in Turkey

I've always been surprised that Turkey, with its proximity to Iraq, Iran, etc., has so far been very successful at staying a secular Muslim nation. I know that it has often had "help" from the Turkish military, but I do find it interesting that a nation like Turkey can be so pro-European in an often anti-Western environment.

So, let's change things around. What PODs are needed to force Turkey to have to combat Islamic separatists/hardliners inside their borders? What I am imagining is a guerrilla campaign by Muslim extremists against the Turkish government.

How would such a campaign affect Turkey? How would the Turkish military react to such a threat? Would this change Turkey's position with Europe and NATO?
 
I think what gave Turkish secularism its staying power was the fact that Ataturk (who was the most famous Turkish secularist) also saved his country from Greek invasion in the 1920s, giving him a legitimacy that someone like the Shah of Iran simply didn't have...

The main Islamist guerilla group in Turkey is Hezbollah (which is mostly Kurdish, and is completely unrelated to its Lebanese namesake).
 
A more repressive secular group that uses enough violence might trigger a backlash by giving Islamism new supporters. Another possibility for Islamism to rise is ofcourse a sharp decline in Turkey's economy. Large unemployment will always send young people towards radical groups.
But... i do believe the Turkish military is well able to handle ANY Islamist threat within it's borders for a long time. And it will if the need arises, even if the people want Islamism it still will take care of it:D
 
I've always been surprised that Turkey, with its proximity to Iraq, Iran, etc., has so far been very successful at staying a secular Muslim nation. I know that it has often had "help" from the Turkish military, but I do find it interesting that a nation like Turkey can be so pro-European in an often anti-Western environment.

So, let's change things around. What PODs are needed to force Turkey to have to combat Islamic separatists/hardliners inside their borders? What I am imagining is a guerrilla campaign by Muslim extremists against the Turkish government.

How would such a campaign affect Turkey? How would the Turkish military react to such a threat? Would this change Turkey's position with Europe and NATO?

As already posted the handling by Atatürk of the situation following WWI made possible the strong Turkish state. He was able to take advantage of the situation and make the best for his country.

You need something to upset this state of affairs like the Greeks doing better forcing the Turks to concessions, but that would probably just see another war between the two or a third...

Another possibility is the treaty of Sevres going more harsh on Turkey putting it effectively under foreign rule and then have the Turks reconquer their land sometime in the 1930'ies or so.
 
The POD for this could be as late as the 40's or 50's. If the political situation in Turkey can start melting down after the 1960 coup instead of in the 1970's, a larger left-wing youth movement, maybe a real threat of leftist insurgency, can make the Turkish government run to that tried and true cold war idea of using political Islam to counterbalance communism earlier and to a much greater extent than OTL.

If militant, albiet anticommunist, political Islam has a brief window of state encouragement followed by involvement in a low-level civil war (basically the OTL 1980's on steroids) it wouldn't be hard for the state-encouraged Islamist death squads and social organizations to "slip the leash" as the 1980's dragged on. Especially if there is an ethnic dimension to the conflict (i.e. Kurds stay with leftists groups and become the prime victims of ethnic Turkish Islamist gangs) the south-east of Anatolia could devolve into a three way, much more violent, civil war during the 1990's. More Turks volunteer for Afghanistan, Bosnia, Nagorno-Karabakh, etc, the Turkish army becomes much more wary of Islamist-inspired parties...


Really there needs to be a good POD that makes political Islam attractive to one of many possible disillusioned groups.
 
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