Febuary 7 1991: John Major and the Cabinet killed.

I think people underestimate the shock of this event. I also think that Thatcher, who always felt her removal was illegitimate would very likely have a good chance of getting her job back after a short interval.


(If this happened there would be lots of conspiracy theories)
 
If Heseltine takes it, then there is not the slightest chance that Howe would return. Maybe, maybe if someone from the right gets it, but not Heseltine. The party and the country will want unity at this point; Heseltine would already be bad enough for the right, bringing back Howe would be a red rag to a bull.

Redwood, Hague, are too junior at this point. Redwood much to so for Northern Ireland, especially in these circumstances. (I don't think Hague was even a minister at this point) I think on the whole, it will be mostly the same cabinet as before in order to preserve the idea of unity, with a very modest re-jigging. Brooke would probably be kept on at NI, or if not, Heseltine will probably elevate Mawhinney to the post - all the experience of the department needed, a 'safe pair of hands' and good unionist overtones. (Actually, Mawhinney makes more sense)

One thing that has to be considered here and which has been ignored is the role of resignations. This is a major security lapse. That probably means Baker (who was always regarded as a bit of a duffer anyway) resigns from the government, perhaps even some senior police/security figures as well. I agree with others in respect of post-9/11 counter-terrorism legislation coming in.

All good points (particularly Mawhinney), but there's a problem.

If Baker resigns as you suggest (which seems likely) the top three Cabinet posts (Home, Foreign and Exchequer) will be vacant as well as a couple of other important postings. Whoever takes over as PM, they will probably place existing Cabinet ministers to the positions, leaving other ministries vacant. Anyway you look at it, it will be hard for this to be a 'modest re-jigging'.
 
Bloody hell, I didn't mean Baker resigns immediately. Nobody does that anyway, it don't work like that. I mean Baker resigns before the new government forms after the interim period, at the outset, or - depending on how harsh the reaction is - when the interim PM takes over.

The interim PM will try to keep ministers more or less where they are in so far as that is possible, as their authority won't extend beyond that. Whoever does take over permanently will be mostly promoting the existing cabinet where possible and only promoting from the middle ranks where neccessary.

btw I cannot see Thatcher getting her old job back. 'Hey, the guy I was already critising as not being purist enough has just been murdered, can you please give it back to me? I mean, I know you bloodily deposed me only a few months ago, but c'mon!'

No, that won't work at all. There will be rumblings from the right but no more than that I would think. In any contest the right only has two choices in the 1990-1992 period - Lilley and Howard. Either one would probably have good chances of winning out against Heseltine in this sitatuon, with Howard probably having the better hand I would guess.
 
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Bloody hell, I didn't mean Baker resigns immediately. Nobody does that anyway, it don't work like that. I mean Baker resigns before the new government forms after the interim period, at the outset, or - depending on how harsh the reaction is - when the interim PM takes over.

The interim PM will try to keep ministers more or less where they are in so far as that is possible, as their authority won't extend beyond that. Whoever does take over permanently will be mostly promoting the existing cabinet where possible and only promoting from the middle ranks where neccessary.

btw I cannot see Thatcher getting her old job back. 'Hey, the guy I was already critising as not being purist enough has just been murdered, can you please give it back to me? I mean, I know you bloodily deposed me only a few months ago, but c'mon!'

No, that won't work at all. There will be rumblings from the right but no more than that I would think. In any contest the right only has two choices in the 1990-1992 period - Lilley and Howard. Either one would probably have good chances of winning out against Heseltine in this sitatuon, with Howard probably having the better hand I would guess.

Oh sorry, my mistake on Baker. I don't understand politics very well obviously...

I couldn't agree with you more on Thatcher though...I would make a seperate point but yours was very well put.

Just to be clear, in this scenario Lilley will have been killed in the explosion so from what your saying the leadership competition would probably Heseltine and Howard oppossing each other.

Another thing. We keep talking about the 'interim' period before a new formal leader of the Conservatives arises but how long would that 'interim' actually be? I can't imagine it stretching beyond a month at most personally.

Also, though Baker will no doubt leave government once the new cabinet is formed I think as the senior survivor of the attack, plus the fact he had been tooted as a future party leader, he would be a likely candidate for the 'interim PM' position. He will probably mess up quickly though, making a formal leadership election all the more vital for the Tories.
 
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Conservative leadership elections are quite quick affairs. In pre-Hague reform days they usually lasted no more than a week or two from the leader resigning to a new leader being installed. Whether the party would want to rush into such a contest quickly in these circumstances, or take pause for a 'cooling off' period of a few weeks, while things return to normality under the interim PM, I'm not sure.

Baker is a possiblity as interim PM, with his background as Home Secretary and the knowledge amongst everyone that he could never be a credible permanent leader, especially after the attack, but I would err more towards someone a bit more obviously reassuring and apolitical - Waddington, as a former Home Sec and a lord, springs to mind. There would be no objection to a lord as an interim PM, especially not under a national security cloud.

Forgot about Lilley being one of the hypothetical casualties.
 
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