February Revolution with Alexei as Tsar?

Old1812

Old1812

Assuming Nikolai dies in 1916 and is replaced with his son, how will this affect the dynamics of the February Revolution?

In a situation in which the Tsar is a child, how will the perception of the monarchy by the people be altered, if at all? It does not strike me as being as easy to portray the monarchy as insidious in this case, compared to Nikolai. How long could Alexei remain as a figurehead Tsar, even if the revolution begins?
 

Lalli

Might be indeed bit too late for preventing February Revolution. Mihail was smarter and perhaps slightly more progressive than his older brother but if he becomes regent he can't do much for stop revolution. Biggest difference probably is that Mikhail can evacuate himself and Nicholas' family. George V might not be that relucant to take them.
 

Comte de Geneve

Depending on when in 1916 Nikloai dies it could very well butterfly away the February revolution and the subsequent happenings. If it's December then there may only be minor differences but if it is early in the year the scenario becomes unrecognizable. There will be some rallying around the idea of a child Tsar. Mihail as regent is going to make different decisions, and probably smarter ones. He is more likely to recognize the precarity of the situation and to work with the more moderate elements. It won't be constitutional monarchy but it will be better led and more responsive. Even if a revolution of some type breaks out in 1917 the timing and outcome and possibly the cast of characters will be different and subsequent events will be altered. Most likely no 10 Days that Shook the world in October.
 
Vladyslav

Vladyslav

Army suppress February riots in Petrograd. IOTL generals in Stavka didn't support Nikolai because they didn't believe in victory under his rule.


marktaha said:
Most likely Mikhail Regent, surely?
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Yes. And general Alekseyev as Supreme Commander of Russian Imperial Army in Regency Council.
Duma without army support would not take a side of rioters and Petrograd Soviet created by socialists

Mikhail - Alekseyev regime would be similar as German OHL under Hindenburg and civil rule would be restored after victory
 

Lalli

marktaha said:
I meant that I had the impression that one cause of the Revolution was that Russia was losing it.
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Not really. Russia was in bad situation but in OTL it lasted yet about oneyear after February Revolution. Under Mikhail leadership manage situation much better and if Nicholas II dies early enough on 1916 regency has time fix some things. So February Revolution is avoided or at least defeated. When there is not two revolutions in 1917 nor civil war, Russia might last long enough that CPs sue peace which probably would happen earlier. Russia is still anyway on really bad condition and it is quiet likely that Finland and Poland still secede or at least attempt that.
 
Vladyslav

Vladyslav

marktaha said:
I meant that I had the impression that one cause of the Revolution was that Russia was losing it.
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It's complex question. In the begin of 1917, Russia was in better situation than Germany. Russian industry worked for war and replaced big part pre-war hi-tech import from Germany, Russians had more food than Germans and Austrians. France had army mutinies in 1917 and this didn't mean lose of France
BUT. As I wrote, generals in Stavka didn't believe that Nikolai can rule country in war. Army's position was most important in February crisis. Relationships between Mikhail (commander of "Savage" division) and Stavka was better. IOTL generals wanted Mikhail as tsar. This means that they would not betrayed actual monarch. Stavka will send corps from front to Petrograd and suppress riots.

Lalli said:
Poland still secede
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Russia planned make Poland independent monarchy under Romanov prince rule after WW1
 
Old1812

Old1812

Lalli said:
Not really. Russia was in bad situation but in OTL it lasted yet about oneyear after February Revolution. Under Mikhail leadership manage situation much better and if Nicholas II dies early enough on 1916 regency has time fix some things. So February Revolution is avoided or at least defeated. When there is not two revolutions in 1917 nor civil war, Russia might last long enough that CPs sue peace which probably would happen earlier. Russia is still anyway on really bad condition and it is quiet likely that Finland and Poland still secede or at least attempt that.
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April 1916, perhaps? I'm not sure what Mikhail or a new more liberal government could do to improve things, however. Perhapshe Entente gives Russia the loan they asked for OTL, which may help.
 
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Old1812

Old1812

What could happen if Mikhail attempts to negotiate a separate peace with the Central Powers and found out? Is it possible the Entente will end up supporting the SR's instead of the monarchy?
 
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