February 1933, Franklin Delano Roosevelt assassinated!

[Darkest]

Guiseppe Zangara gets his wish, and is able to deliver a fatal bullet to FDR's neck. This has probably been brought up before. What do you think might happen?

I know that, upon his death, John Nance Garner would become president. I'm not sure what kind of presidency he would lead, or the results of next election, but it would definitely toss a wrench into things.

 

[Communist Wizard]

Well, America is economically much more worse off...

 

[Blochead]

I doubt it, Wizard. Most of Roosevelt's ideas weren't his, they were from his brain trust, so Garner would likely still have implemented many of them. And even if he didn't get re-elected as often, it might be better off without a strong New Dealer, as Roosevelt's policies may have caused the Recession of 37-38, which set the US back significantly. What would be more concerning to the nation's economic well being would be a Republican president in the late 30s/early 40s, not because of a change in economic policy (see previous comment on recession), but because they would not enter WWII and truly mobilize the US economy.

 

[Wendell]

Landon's odds in 1936 may be improved.

 

[Max Sinister]

FDR goes like: "Oh f*ck, not that POD again!" SCNR.

That's the question: Would Garner implement New Deal in the right way? Would he give people the feeling that something's done? Would he dare to reform the US in a way that some people saw/see as Socialist?

 

[Thande]

I seem to remember that this was the POD for Philip K. Dick's The Man in the High Castle.

 

[Adam]

I seem to remember that this was the POD for Philip K. Dick's The Man in the High Castle.

Ah yes, in 'tis TL, it'll all probably end up with Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan partitioning North America after a 7-hour war in 1961.

 

[1940LaSalle]

Landon's odds in 1936 may be improved.

True: in that case he might get into double digits in electoral votes. Alf Landon might possibly have been the most colorless, least electable candidate the GOP ran in the 20th century: at the time he was touted as "another Coolidge", which tells you something right there. Running against the rather outspoken, colorful Garner...well, there's no way he would have won.

Garner had a reputation (so it's said) of being something of a Red-baiter (to use the language of the times) in those days, so it's not impossible that the nation would not have moved to the left as much as it did with FDR. That said, it's also possible that what Garner and associates would have implemented would have been tantamount to a New Deal Lite, which (as alluded to elsewhere) might have avoided the '37-'38 recession.

After two terms for Garner, things become more problematic. I think it's safe to say that events in Germany would have unfolded as they did in OTL. With Garner, there's not an immediately obvious successor in 1940, and I question whether Garner would have broken the no-third-term tradition. My first impulse was to suggest Joseph Kennedy as the Democrats' nominee in 1940 (he almost was in OTL until his defeatism/covert anti-Semitism caused a rift with FDR) but with no FDR, he doesn't have a patron in the White House. On the other hand, he might have been able to finagle/buy his way into the governorship of or a Senate seat from Massachusetts, so he's not out of the picture entirely.

On the GOP side, you have a number of staunch isolationists (Taft, Vandenberg), a would-be retread (Hoover ), and Willkie: I'm postulating Willkie would have crossed party lines anyhow, mostly out of opportunism. In turn, that leads me to believe that Willkie would have been the GOP nominee in '40 anyway--and that a Kennedy/Willkie election would have led to a ceremony on the capital steps in early 1941 where the Chief Justice would have said, "Repeat after me....I, Wendell Willkie..."

 

[Wendell]

Interesting ideas, LaSalle. That could make the 1940's quite interesting.

 

[Thande]

Ah yes, in 'tis TL, it'll all probably end up with Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan partitioning North America after a 7-hour war in 1961.

Really? There was me thinking it would result in a situation like the one in the frickin' book, where the US was partitioned between Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in a 5-year war between 1941 and 1947!

If you're going to be snarky, get your facts right!

 

[1940LaSalle]

Interesting ideas, LaSalle. That could make the 1940's quite interesting.

Seems to me that with Willkie, the internationalist, in the Oval Office, many of the same events that transpired in 1941 in OTL would have happened anyway with a different cast of characters. Indeed, Pearl Harbor might have happened sooner (the Japanese had an unknown quantity in Willkie and wouldn't have been averse to testing him?). Since the C-in-C typically stands aloof from military decisions, I would surmise that the battlefronts would have largely gone the way they did, including the promotion of Ike over more senior officers.

The real twist comes with respect to Willkie's health: in OTL, he died in 1944. Possibly with the best care that the Army and Navy have to offer, Willkie might have lived until 1945 or 1946. If I recall correctly, his death was sudder, so we'll assume that at the Yalta conference, Stalin faced a reasonably robust Willkie, and may have been obliged to back off a number of his demands. Thus, I could foresee less of an extension of communism westward than in OTL (possibly even to the point of Germany having only three, not four, zones of occupation).

Assuming Willkie is renominated and re-elected (along with VP Charles McNary), the US, Great Britain, and France have more of a say in normalizing Europe than they did in OTL, with the Iron Curtain established farther east (certainly including Poland and the Baltic nations; guessing no East Germany). I have to wonder if the GOP would have nominated McNary for a full term: my sense is no; he was from a relatively minor state (Oregon) in terms of electoral votes, so I suspect he'd be a caretaker until 1948, when the Republicans would trot out a blockbuster ticket of Ike and Dewey (for those who would point out that you can't have a presidential and VP candidate from the same state, I'd guess Ike would be nominally have a "home" established in Colorado, where Mamie's family lived). That would blow away anything the Democrats would offer (guessing possibly Byrne and Truman).

With John Foster Dulles running the State Department and Allen Dulles running the CIA, it's not too far-fetched to imagine that the nationalist regime in China would have been somehow propped up until the postwar situation stabilized. No Mao = no "who lost China?" questions = no Joe McCarthy. Fallout from that: California congressman Richard Nixon does NOT attempt a run for the Senate in 1950. Imagine if you will the early 1950s with no McCarthyism...

 

[MrP]

Really? There was me thinking it would result in a situation like the one in the frickin' book, where the US was partitioned between Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in a 5-year war between 1941 and 1947!

If you're going to be snarky, get your facts right!

Best. Smackdown. Ever.

 

[Wendell]

Seems to me that with Willkie, the internationalist, in the Oval Office, many of the same events that transpired in 1941 in OTL would have happened anyway with a different cast of characters. Indeed, Pearl Harbor might have happened sooner (the Japanese had an unknown quantity in Willkie and wouldn't have been averse to testing him?). Since the C-in-C typically stands aloof from military decisions, I would surmise that the battlefronts would have largely gone the way they did, including the promotion of Ike over more senior officers.

The real twist comes with respect to Willkie's health: in OTL, he died in 1944. Possibly with the best care that the Army and Navy have to offer, Willkie might have lived until 1945 or 1946. If I recall correctly, his death was sudder, so we'll assume that at the Yalta conference, Stalin faced a reasonably robust Willkie, and may have been obliged to back off a number of his demands. Thus, I could foresee less of an extension of communism westward than in OTL (possibly even to the point of Germany having only three, not four, zones of occupation).

Assuming Willkie is renominated and re-elected (along with VP Charles McNary), the US, Great Britain, and France have more of a say in normalizing Europe than they did in OTL, with the Iron Curtain established farther east (certainly including Poland and the Baltic nations; guessing no East Germany). I have to wonder if the GOP would have nominated McNary for a full term: my sense is no; he was from a relatively minor state (Oregon) in terms of electoral votes, so I suspect he'd be a caretaker until 1948, when the Republicans would trot out a blockbuster ticket of Ike and Dewey (for those who would point out that you can't have a presidential and VP candidate from the same state, I'd guess Ike would be nominally have a "home" established in Colorado, where Mamie's family lived). That would blow away anything the Democrats would offer (guessing possibly Byrne and Truman).

With John Foster Dulles running the State Department and Allen Dulles running the CIA, it's not too far-fetched to imagine that the nationalist regime in China would have been somehow propped up until the postwar situation stabilized. No Mao = no "who lost China?" questions = no Joe McCarthy. Fallout from that: California congressman Richard Nixon does NOT attempt a run for the Senate in 1950. Imagine if you will the early 1950s with no McCarthyism...

I think that the war would have ended very differently. Eisenhower may not have been told to sit at the Elbe, for example. Things are changed significantly even with an advance just to the Oder from the West.

As for McNary, he died in 1941. I'd suggest replacing him with Earl Warren or Arthur Vandenburg. Might Vandenburg have been SecState under Willkie?

In 1948, it could by Vandy and Warren against Harriman and Byrd/Byrd and Harriman.

 

[Adam]

If you're going to be snarky, get your facts right!

I was actually satirizing such a scenario.

(For a bit of explanation, that '7-Hour War' was a reference to the backstory of Half Life 2, where modern Earth fell to an alien race in a Seven Hour War)

 

[Darkest]

I caught the reference, Adam, don't worry.

1940LaSalle, interesting scenario, and I wanted to write a timeline about this, but here I was expecting a dystopia and I get the opposite. Kind of cool that Communism is pulled back to the east, Nationalist China succeeds, no McCarthyism, ect. ect. Quite cool. But, not for me. Hmmm... Man in the High Castle was based off of this POD!? Fine, fine, I'll find another one. Thanks for the suggestions, though.

 

[pacifichistorian]

a Republican president in the late 30s/early 40s, not because of a change in economic policy (see previous comment on recession), but because they would not enter WWII and truly mobilize the US economy.

Do I understand you correctly? "wouldn't" mobilize the economy? Would you argue Taft, frex, wouldn't increase military spending as a way to both stimulate the economy & strenghten the country's ability to keep foreign powers at bay? I'm thinking in particular of a stronger Navy, & a buildup in P.I. after Japan abrogates the London treaty in '36.

Indeed, Pearl Harbor might have happened sooner (the Japanese had an unknown quantity in Willkie and wouldn't have been averse to testing him?).

Doubtful. It depended probably more on (apparent) German success in Europe & a Pres determined to aid Britain, while attempting to "quiet" Japan. Change either of those, you totally change the dynamic.

Since the C-in-C typically stands aloof from military decisions, I would surmise that the battlefronts would have largely gone the way they did, including the promotion of Ike over more senior officers.

Maybe not. Some very senior positions were Presidential nominations: Kimmel got PacFleet at FDR's request. (Nimitz, over some 30 more senior officers, too, IIRC.) And, of course, Kimmel replaced Richardson, after FDR fired him over their disagreement about basing the fleet at Pearl (to "frighten" Japan...), which TTL likely won't happen (or see the same outcome, anyhow)... If it still does, better than even odds sees King as CinCPac after 1 Feb 41.